state of play: 01/30/2024

STATE OF PLAY: Danielewski: Political Chaos? Nonsense, It's the Most Stable It's Been in a Long Time; Kęskrawiec: PiS Looks Like a Party That's Lost Its Hearing; Johann: The KRS Term Should Be Shortened

Łukasz Mężyk

-- POLITICAL SCHEDULE FOR TUESDAY: DUDA TO CONVENE GOVERNMENT FOR RDS, THEN WITH SOLIDARITY, HOŁOWNIA IN BIAŁYSTOK, POMASKA ON PROSECUTOR'S DECISION REGARDING LOTOS SALE, FIRST SESSION OF PIS TEAM, GOVERNMENT SESSION, KOSINIAK IN BRUSSELS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/01/30/ -- THE KRS TERM SHOULD BE SHORTENED - WIESŁAW JOHANN, UNTIL RECENTLY A PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE TO THE KRS, IN AN INTERVIEW WITH AGATA ŁUKASZEWICZ IN RZ: “If we want to restore the proper role and function of the National Council of the Judiciary, a surgical cut must be made. We end the current term, elect new members, work with the new composition, and fulfill what the National Council is obligated to do by both the constitution and the law. That is, the election of members by judges, not by the Sejm.” -- IT SEEMS TO ME THAT THIS WAS THE MOMENT WHEN THE COUNCIL TOO OFTEN TOOK POSITIONS ON MATTERS, I WOULD SAY, WITH A SLIGHTLY POLITICAL ASPECT - JOHANN FURTHER IN RZ: “When new members appeared, and Judge Dagmara Pawełczyk-Woicka became the chairwoman, the situation changed somewhat. The chairwoman had her own idea for the functioning of the National Council of the Judiciary. I didn't entirely like what she was doing. I often didn't understand her concept. It seems to me that this was the moment when the Council too often took positions on matters, I would say, with a slightly political aspect. I believed that the KRS is not for playing politics – not in the slightest. Of course, it has the right to react to rulings of the ECJ, to rulings of the ECHR. Of course. Full agreement. But there were too many of these political reactions. It seems to me that the National Council of the Judiciary too often stepped into the political arena.” -- REGARDLESS OF WHETHER SOMEONE LIKES IT OR NOT. IT IS THE PRESIDENT WHO ULTIMATELY DECIDES WHO IS A JUDGE AND WHO IS NOT - JOHANN FURTHER WITH ŁUKASZEWICZ IN RZ: “The term neo-KRS or neo-judges offends me. I learned solidly at the Constitutional Tribunal for nine years that law is law. If there is a law, then it is law. Regardless of whether someone likes it or not. It is the president who ultimately decides who is a judge and who is not.” https://www.rp.pl/sady-i-trybunaly/art39758081-wieslaw-johann-kadencje-krs-trzeba-skrocic -- POLITICAL CHAOS? NONSENSE, IT'S THE MOST STABLE IT'S BEEN IN A LONG TIME - MICHAŁ DANIELEWSKI IN OKO.PRESS: “A hypothesis in the greatly agitated world of our political debate – despite the political tension, Poland has the most stable and predictable political situation in a long time. With a strong economy, a very strong parliamentary majority, and an opposition doomed to failure in the next series of elections.” -- THE MORE DESPERATELY PIS TRIES TO ROCK THE POLITICAL SCENE, THE MORE STRONGLY IT STABILIZES IT - DANIELEWSKI FURTHER IN OKO: “The more desperately PiS tries to rock the political scene, the more strongly it stabilizes it. In a situation of political conflict, which is perceived by less engaged voters as simultaneously highly emotional and incomprehensible, they will be inclined to direct their sympathies towards those political forces that have the power to resolve it. That is, towards the ruling formations, especially if they remain cohesive, united, and determined. This mechanism will be all the more significant as a fundamental electoral trifecta awaits us soon.” -- PRAWO I SPRAWIEDLIWOŚĆ (LAW AND JUSTICE) HAS YET TO REINVENT ITSELF TO BECOME ANY THREAT TO THE NEW GOVERNMENT - WRITES DANIELEWSKI IN OKO: “Law and Justice, on the other hand, has yet to reinvent itself to become any threat to the new government. In this sense, the probability that the disputes we are currently following with bated breath will significantly change the political scene, shake the government, or end in chaos, is negligible. Short-term political stability, which is not threatened by anything today, is one thing, while long-term institutional stability is another. That is, an institutional order that is not subject to revolutionary changes after every change of government. But how to introduce it and anchor it as effectively as possible is a topic for a completely different and much more complicated story.” https://oko.press/mamy-polityczny-chaos-bzdura -- THE SOCIAL BASE, ALTHOUGH AGING, IS STILL SIGNIFICANT AND MAY GROW WITH MIGRATORY TENSION - MAREK KĘSKRAWIEC IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “If anyone thinks this is the twilight of the strong right in Poland, they are mistaken. The social base, although aging, is still significant and may grow with migratory tension. Representation in the Sejm is also enormous, although it needs to change internally – otherwise, the base will change it.” -- PIS TODAY LOOKS LIKE A PARTY THAT HAS LOST ITS SOCIAL HEARING AND IS HEADING TOWARDS THE POLITICAL CORNER - FURTHER KĘSKRAWIEC IN TYGODNIK: “PiS today looks like a party that has lost its social hearing and is heading towards the political corner. Deprived of free access to public media, it is unable to explain its tactics, and at best, bizarre diagnoses, delivered by a lost Jarosław Kaczyński, break through to the mainstream. He really did not expect Donald Tusk to treat the blockades left in the system so harshly, intended to deprive him of his agency. Tusk is breaking these blockades unceremoniously, for now in the media and prosecution, but soon he will also take on the substitute judges in the Constitutional Tribunal. At the same time, he will feed Poles with further episodes of two exciting serials: about Pegasus and the draining of millions from State Treasury companies by politicians of the United Right.” -- THE PRESIDENTIAL PALACE ALSO LOOKS LIKE IT'S FALLING APART - WRITES KĘSKRAWIEC FURTHER IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “The moods on the right are not helped by the fact that its second decision-making center, the Presidential Palace, also looks like it's falling apart. Andrzej Duda, who is 'Hamletizing' (under the influence of lawyer Małgorzata Paprocka), announcing mutually contradictory positions on the pardon of Kamiński and Wąsik, has become almost unserious in recent days. It seems that the president has not yet recovered from the government's demonstrative disregard for the extraterritoriality of the Palace during the arrest of the convicted politicians.” https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/co-zrobic-z-prezesem-186033 -- KACZYŃSKI HELPS TUSK, AND PIS DIVERT ATTENTION FROM THE GOVERNMENT'S PROBLEMS - JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: “Kaczyński, by imposing a sensational narrative, has become an unexpected ally of Tusk. Although the media report on the slowly implemented 100 specific actions for the first 100 days of the government, the unfulfilled promises of the new authority, as well as the record number of ministers despite announcements of slimming down the government, PiS sensations cover everything. Little is heard about the problem of teachers who cannot count on the raises they were promised. Each of these pieces of information loses to the party leader's 'torture' of Kamiński on Tusk's or Bodnar's orders, Stalinist courts, a 'transitional period with a new government,' because 'the constitution has ceased to apply,' and therefore 'various methods can be applied.' Few pay attention to this, because PiS continues to try to impose its narrative. The problem is that the party is not gaining from this, it is only helping the government.” https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art39757671-jacek-nizinkiewicz-kaczynski-pomaga-tuskowi-a-pis-odwraca-uwage-od-problemow-rzadu -- WE BEAT OUR BREASTS AND DO A DEEP RESET - SAYS ONE IMPORTANT PIS POLITICIAN TO ANDRZEJ GAJEC IN ONE T: “- We beat our breasts and do a deep reset. This is what our right-wing voters expect, those who do not agree with the changes taking place in Poland since December 13. The interest of people in these meetings has exceeded our expectations, as well as their concern for Poland and their mobilization for further political struggle - says one important politician of Law and Justice to Onet.” -- AS ONET HAS ESTABLISHED, PIS INTENDS TO RELY ON FORMER VOIVODES IN THE UPCOMING ELECTIONS - FURTHER GAJCY: “As Onet has established, the largest opposition party intends to rely on new faces and former voivodes in the upcoming elections, among others. They are to be given a chance to compete in the campaign for the presidencies of large cities.” https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/gleboki-reset-pis-pokaze-w-nadchodzacej-kampanii-nowe-twarze -- THIS IS TO BE A MAGNET FOR VARIOUS ENVIRONMENTS, EXPERT GROUPS, AND THINK TANKS - WE HEAR IN PIS - AGATA KONDZIŃSKA IN GW: “He explains that the team is to bring together various environments, jointly develop legislative projects, and concepts. - We want various foundations, opinion centers, and think tanks to get involved. This is to be a magnet for various environments that can consolidate around PiS - he adds.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,30645494,startuje-zespol-morawieckiego-pis-musimy-przestac-walic-na.html -- IS THERE RELUCTANCE TOWARDS KAMIŃSKI AND WĄSIK IN PIS? A PIS POLITICIAN: - IS IT BIG? IT'S HUGE. MANY PEOPLE IN THE PIS CAMP PUBLICLY DEFEND THEM, BUT THEY DON'T ENJOY IT - JACEK GĄDEK IN GAZETA.PL: “Is there reluctance towards Kamiński and Wąsik in PiS? A PiS politician: - Is it big? It's huge. Many people in the PiS camp publicly defend them, but they don't enjoy it. It's not, of course, that everyone defends Kamiński and Wąsik without enthusiasm, but the fact is that there isn't much internal party sympathy towards them – even if politicians from the United Right camp insist otherwise in the media and at press conferences. One of the interviewees, a well-known politician from the ranks of PiS, emphasizes: - Please note that there wasn't even a joint press conference of Jarosław Kaczyński with Kamiński and Wąsik.” -- NOW JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI IS BUILDING THE MYTH OF KAMIŃSKI AND WĄSIK, ALTHOUGH HE CANNOT STAND THEM HIMSELF - A PIS POLITICIAN TO GĄDEK IN GAZETA.PL: “However, PiS must somehow accommodate its heroes – as the narrative from Nowogrodzka says – of the fight against corruption. - Now Jarosław Kaczyński is building the myth of Kamiński and Wąsik, although he can't stand them himself. He is building this myth because it serves PiS – says a politician from this party.” https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,30644834,klopotliwi-bohaterowie-pis-dopiero-nieoficjalnie-mozna-uslyszec.html -- REGARDLESS OF WHO ULTIMATELY TAKES OVER PIS, IN KACZYŃSKI'S VISION, IT IS TO BE COMPLETELY DEPENDENT ON HIM - PRZEMYSŁAW SZUBARTOWICZ IN INTERIA: “However, regardless of who ultimately takes over PiS, in Kaczyński's vision, it is to be completely dependent on him, while the chairman will find some comfortable place for himself – formal or informal – in the background and will remain there as long as his health and strength allow. Of course, life teaches us that the future always looks different, but politics obeys its own laws, its own cynicism, and a special kind of passion.” -- A NEW FORMATION – BUILT BY THE YOUNGER GENERATION ON THE RUINS OF THE OLD PIS AND BASED ON SOME KIND OF CONSENSUS – WOULD INEVITABLY HAVE TO BREAK WITH THE CURRENT HERITAGE OF THE LEADER – FURTHER SZUBARTOWICZ IN INTERIA: “Such a new formation – built by the younger generation on the ruins of the old PiS and based on some kind of consensus – would by force of necessity have to break with the current heritage of the leader, reject his autocratic ideas, carry out a great reset, but also rebuild coalition capabilities, which would be a condition for participating in any government arrangement in the future.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-sukcesja-na-niby,nId,7298857 -- PERHAPS A LEAP FORWARD IS THE BEST SOLUTION? - ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA IN RZ: “In economics, there is the concept of a 'catch-up effect,' where as progress is made, economically backward countries can skip directly to a higher stage of development and, for example, move from cash transactions directly to payment cards, bypassing the stage of checks – as happened in Poland. Is this same mechanism possible in the judiciary? After all, the legal reality before PiS was not fully transparent and democratic, nor were the procedures representative and fair. So, perhaps a leap forward is the best solution?” https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art39758561-zuzanna-dabrowska-premia-niedorozwoju-praworzadnosci -- THE QUESTION OF THE SENSE OF SELLING A WELL-PERFORMING COMPANY FAR BELOW ITS VALUE ONLY GAINS IMPORTANCE - MAREK RABIJ IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “Despite these doubts and against the warnings of some officials of the Ministry of State Assets, the merger was carried out. The outgoing Orlen management is now defending the merger, arguing that the NIK report is a manipulation of data, and the book value of Lotos indicated by the controllers (i.e., the value of its assets minus debt) is far from the amount a potential buyer was willing to pay. Even if this is true, the question of the sense of selling a well-performing company far below its value only gains importance.” https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/orlen-i-lotos-ta-fuzja-nie-wypalila-186034 -- IT WAS JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI IN DIRECT CONVERSATIONS WITH OBAJTEK WHO MADE DECISIONS REGARDING THE SALE OF LOTOS - MAREK BIERNACKI TELLS WOJCIECH CZUCHNOWSKI IN GW: “I can say that we sensed serious doubts from the services. Unofficially, we received signals that they were against it. The result was even supposed to be the resignation of one of the heads – says Biernacki today, who is the deputy head of the commission in the current Sejm. In his opinion, the sale of Lotos was 'arranged at the level of Obajtek - Kaczyński'. - Decisions were made at Nowogrodzka. Those who had doubts were silenced – claims Biernacki.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,30644608,jak-pis-sprzedawal-lotos-saudyjczykom-sluzby-mialy-zwiazane.html -- NOWACKA: FROM APRIL, THERE WILL BE NO MANDATORY HOMEWORK - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/01/30/ -- MORE THAN HALF OF THOSE SURVEYED BY IBRIS BELIEVE THAT THE ABOLITION OF HOMEWORK IS NOT A GOOD IDEA. 43 PERCENT OF THOSE SURVEYED VOTED FOR THE CHANGE - RZ: “New solutions are supported by 60% of Civic Coalition voters, 27% of Lewica voters, and 43% of Third Way voters. And interestingly, also by people (48%) who describe their financial situation as bad. Changes concerning homework are considered a 'rather bad' solution by 17.5% of respondents, and 'definitely bad' by 33.4%. This is a total of over half of those surveyed.” https://www.rp.pl/edukacja/art39757641-sondaz-jak-polacy-oceniaja-rzadowe-plany-likwidacji-prac-domowych -- COMPANIES FOR YEARS STRONGLY CRITICIZED THE BAN ON SUNDAY TRADING, BUT NOW THEIR ASSESSMENT HAS CHANGED. MANY CHAINS, E.G., GROCERY STORES, CLAIM THAT LIFTING IT IS NOT PROFITABLE FOR THEM. SHOPPING CENTERS WANT IT THOUGH - RZ: https://www.rp.pl/handel/art39758691-niedziele-dziela-sklepy-kto-jest-za-pozostawieniem-zakazu-handlu -- BIRTHDAYS: Maria Zajączkowska turns 85, Maciej Samcik, Anna Skowrońska-Łuczyńska.

Łukasz Mężyk