-- KOSINIAK-KAMYSZ: IN SWEDEN THEY SAY "WE NEED TO PREPARE FOR WAR," THE SAME AWARENESS MUST EXIST IN POLAND, KOŁODZIEJCZAK: THE GREEN DEAL EQUALS A BLACK DREAM FOR POLAND - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/01/25/ -- "WE'LL TAKE PODKARPACIE FROM THEM TOO," TUSK WANTS TO TAKE POWER FROM PIS IN ALL REGIONAL ASSEMIES STILL CONTROLLED BY JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI. THAT'S WHY - ACCORDING TO INFORMATION FROM ONET - THE AGREEMENT ON A JOINT RUN IN THE LOCAL ELECTIONS WITH THE LEFT IS ONE STEP AWAY - KAMIL DZIUBKA IN ONET: “For Donald Tusk, the primary goal seems to be to finish off PiS. Five years ago, Law and Justice gained power in half of the regional assemblies. Current polls and analyses give this party no chance of retaining these gains. In the worst-case scenario, PiS may lose power in its strongholds in eastern Poland – even in Podkarpacie, which has long been a region dominated by right-wing voters. - If things go well, we'll even take Podkarpacie from them – a prominent Civic Platform politician tells Onet. Civic Coalition is growing in the polls. Some surveys show that KO and PiS are neck and neck. And it's no secret that in local elections, Jarosław Kaczyński's party usually performs poorly. Especially since parties from outside the central structures also compete for mandates in the regions. Losing power in all regional assemblies would be a catastrophe for PiS. And this is precisely the prime minister's plan, as confirmed by our sources in the government camp.” https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/donald-tusk-moze-zadac-pis-potezny-cios-zabierzemy-im-nawet-podkarpacie/vsxdg6n,79cfc278 -- SHOULD THE LEFT RUN JOINTLY WITH PO? IN REGIONAL ASSEMBLIES YES, IN CITIES NOT NECESSARILY - JAKUB MAJMUREK IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “A coalition with a larger partner – either encompassing all the forces forming the governing majority, or at least KO – could therefore be an optimal solution for the Left, provided it doesn't look like a complete capitulation to the larger partner. On a symbolic level, the Left should therefore fight for it not to be solely a run on PO lists, e.g., through the name of the committee. On a concrete level – for a sensible number of winning places on the lists and guarantees of left-wing local policies within the future regional government. (...) This is where the Left has room to build its subjectivity within the democratic camp – in regional assemblies, an agreement will most likely be necessary. The question is whether the Left will want to build its independence at the city or county level – there may be divisions within the left-wing coalition on this matter and very interesting configurations in different cities.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/czy-lewica-powinna-startowac-wspolnie-z-po-w-sejmikach-tak-w-miastach-niekoniecznie/ -- HOŁOWNIA'S RESULT IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED BY A PARTICIPANT IN THE STUDY CONDUCTED BY IBRIS FOR ONET: “Hołownia's result is the highest recorded by a participant in the study conducted by IBRiS for Onet. The previous record belonged to President Andrzej Duda – in September 2020, 52.2% of respondents declared trust in him. Second in the January study for Onet is Rafał Trzaskowski. The Mayor of Warsaw is trusted by 47.4% of respondents (an increase of 4.1 percentage points). Trzaskowski is not trusted by 37.6% of respondents (an increase of 2.4 percentage points). Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, chairman of the PSL, deputy prime minister and minister of national defense, takes third place on the podium. Kosiniak-Kamysz is trusted by 42.7% of respondents (a decrease of 1 percentage point). He is not trusted by 31.1% of respondents (an increase of 3.7 percentage points).” -- THE LEVEL OF DISTRUST TOWARDS THE PRESIDENT INCREASED BY 8.4 PERCENTAGE POINTS IN ONE MONTH: “In fourth place was President Andrzej Duda, who is trusted by 41.3% of respondents (an increase of 2.6 percentage points). The level of distrust towards the president increased by 8.4 percentage points in one month and currently stands at 47.9%. Behind the president was Donald Tusk, who is trusted by 38.9% of respondents (an increase of 1.4 percentage points). The prime minister is not trusted by 47.9% of respondents (an increase of 1 percentage point).” https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art39741201-sondaz-rosnie-nieufnosc-wobec-prezydenta-andrzeja-dudy-rekordowy-wynik-szymona-holowni -- MARIUSZ KAMIŃSKI "SAINT OF PIS." WILL HE BE THE PARTY'S CANDIDATE FOR MAYOR OF WARSAW? - MICHAŁ WOJTCZUK IN GW: “The PiS candidate for mayor of Warsaw has the role of an electoral locomotive to play. If he manages to at least mobilize the hard PiS electorate, perhaps it would be possible to minimize losses in the elections to the Warsaw City Council, and perhaps even take power in one or two districts.” https://warszawa.wyborcza.pl/warszawa/7,54420,30626129,czy-mariusz-kaminski-zostanie-kandydatem-pis-na-prezydenta-warszawy.html -- IN A POLL CONDUCTED ON WEDNESDAY, 38 OF OUR PANELISTS EXPRESSED THEIR OPINIONS. 84% OF THEM (32 OPINIONS) CATEGORICALLY STATED THAT KAMIŃSKI AND WĄSIK LOST THEIR MANDATES - IZABELA KACPRZAK, AGATA ŁUKASZEWICZ, MAREK KOBYLAŃSKI IN RZ: “In the poll conducted on Wednesday, 38 of our panelists expressed their opinions. 84% of them (32 opinions) categorically stated that Kamiński and Wąsik lost their mandates. Only four people had the opposite opinion. Two opinions were ambiguous. For example, according to Wiesław Kozielewicz, a Supreme Court judge and former head of the State Electoral Commission, the situation of both politicians is different: Wąsik is still an MP, while Kamiński is not. Because only the publication of the final ruling of the Sejm Marshal on the expiration of the mandate in the Monitor Polski causes a person to cease to be a parliamentarian. – That's what the procedure is for – says Kozielewicz.” https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art39740261-wiekszosc-prawnikow-nie-ma-watpliwosci-mandaty-wasika-i-kaminskiego-wygasly -- WIESŁAW KOZIELEWICZ: THE MATTER IS NOT SIMPLE. THE MATTER REGARDING WĄSIK IS NOT CONCLUDED - PRESIDENT OF THE PROFESSIONAL RESPONSIBILITY CHAMBER OF THE SUPREME COURT, FORMER HEAD OF THE STATE ELECTORAL COMMISSION IN AN INTERVIEW WITH AGATA ŁUKASZEWICZ IN RZ: “For me, the matter is neither simple nor unambiguous. According to my interpretation and my understanding of Article 99(3) of the Constitution and Article 250 of the Electoral Code, Maciej Wąsik has not yet lost his parliamentary mandate. Mariusz Kamiński, in my opinion, is without a parliamentary mandate. (...) As for Mr. Wąsik, the procedure has not been concluded. The decision to confirm the expiration of his mandate has been revoked. The situation is different for Mariusz Kamiński. In my opinion, he has lost his mandate. And this has been confirmed by both the publication in Monitor Polski and the previous actions taken. He may therefore appear in the Sejm, but he cannot participate in voting or commissions as a full member of the Commission – an MP.” https://www.rp.pl/prawo-dla-ciebie/art39740041-wieslaw-kozielewicz-sprawa-nie-jest-prosta-sprawa-ws-wasika-nie-jest-zakonczona -- WE DON'T WANT TO SCRAP WITH ANYONE, MAKE A SPECTACLE. WE WANT TO WIN THIS CASE LEGALLY - SAYS KRZYSZTOF SZCZUCKI, MP FOR PIS, FORMER HEAD OF THE GOVERNMENT LEGISLATIVE CENTRE, QUOTED BY IZABELA KACPRZAK IN RZ: “There is no decision about a forceful entry into the Sejm. We don't want to fight with anyone, make a spectacle. We want to win this case legally.” https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art39740241-mandaty-wasika-i-kaminskiego-twardy-orzech-marszalka-holowni -- IT SHOULD BE EXPECTED THAT OVER THE NEXT YEAR AND A HALF, THE POLITICAL CONFLICT WILL MORE LIKELY INTENSIFY RATHER THAN SUBSIDE. BECAUSE ONLY THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS WILL DECIDE WHETHER THE PIS CAMP WILL BE COMPLETELY DEPRIVED OF INFLUENCE - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “This is only the beginning, not the end of this matter. Because in the coming months, it will be a tool for heating up political emotions for both PO and PiS. They will be needed during the local and European elections. But the biggest stake will be the presidential elections. Therefore, it should be expected that over the next year and a half, the political conflict will more likely intensify rather than subside. Because only the presidential elections will decide whether the PiS camp will be completely deprived of influence on reality, and whether Donald Tusk will gain room for maneuver to arbitrarily change this reality without the brake of cohabitation.” https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art39737701-michal-szuldrzynski-kto-zyska-a-kto-straci-na-ulaskawieniu-macieja-wasika-i-mariusza-kaminskiego-przez-andrzeja-dude -- JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI, THIS IS THE END - DOROTA WYSOCKA-SCHNEPF IN GW: “The end of the political project under the hypocritical name Law and Justice was decided from the October 15 elections. Today, it is visible to the naked eye. Support for Kaczyński's party is plummeting. It will probably only stop at the level of a dozen or so percent.” -- THE ELECTORATE WILL DRIFT AWAY. THE SOONER, THE FASTER THE DOCKETS OF THE ACCUSED WILL SWELL - WYSOCKA-SCHNEPF CONTINUES IN GW: “The PiS electorate, which has been around thirty percent so far, will likely disbelieve in part. And to some extent, they will stick to Kaczyński's hateful narrative. But cutting Poles off from stupefying propaganda will cause some to see the light. Some reluctantly (because who likes to admit to wrong choices), but they will doubt the stories of the chairman and his acolytes so far, and above all, the infallibility of Kaczyński. And they will no longer raise their hand for PiS. The electorate will drift away. The sooner, the faster the dockets of the accused will swell.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,30626956,jaroslawie-kaczynski-to-juz-jest-koniec.html -- TYRANNY HAS ARRIVED DISGUISED AS "RULE OF LAW." THE WORD "RULE OF LAW" NOW SOUNDS AS IRONIC AS "PEOPLE'S JUSTICE" - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “What they want, they take by brute force, kicking down doors. Now, based on "legal opinions," they are trying to take over the prosecution, trampling clear law, ignoring verdicts of the Constitutional Tribunal and the president's powers. Soon, the word "rule of law" will sound as ironic as "people's justice." It already does. They weren't interested in law, in the rule of law, in the constitution. These were just cynical masks. It was about power over Poland, exercised on behalf of external forces.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/679465-zamordyzm-przyszedl-w-przebraniu-praworzadnosci -- THE CONSTRUCTION OF A MYTH AROUND WĄSIK AND KAMIŃSKI IS GOING POORLY - AGNIESZKA WIŚNIEWSKA IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “The Smolensk lesson shows that building a myth is years of work that begins with sowing doubt, convincing the hardest electorate, and consistently repeating untruths. The question is whether PiS, in its current form, has enough strength and resources for this. It must also be admitted that mainstream media are very helpful in this work. For weeks, we have been reading daily about how they transported the gentlemen from one city to another, and immediately after that, a political commentary on whether they ate or not and what it means for Poland. Clicks are flying, viewership is maintained. Do we know and understand more because of this? I doubt it. But the telenovela continues, and the faces of both gentlemen are constantly on the media wallpaper. This is only better for the cause of the political myth. Not for all of us.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/slabo-idzie-budowanie-mitu-wokol-wasika-i-kaminskiego/ -- EUROPEAN FRONT OF ANGRY FARMERS. WILL WARSAW AND BRUSSELS GIVE IN? - KRYSTYNA NASZKOWSKA IN GW: “generally, these were grassroots demonstrations, initiatives of local farmers. They came out en masse onto the roads across the country because they have been angry for a long time about what is happening in the agricultural market. And they have reasons. They had many demands, but most concerned two issues: they wanted to stop the import of agricultural products from Ukraine and for the European Commission to withdraw from the so-called Green Deal. Both demands are not surprising; farmers have been talking about this for months, only that for months it was disregarded by the rulers. And even when the Morawiecki government finally noticed the problem, it had no idea how to solve it.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30628300,europejski-front-wkurzonych-rolnikow-czy-bruksela-sie-ugnie.html -- THERE IS NO AND WILL BE NO BUDAPEST IN WARSAW. THE EUROPEAN SOCIAL SURVEY SHOWS THAT HUNGARIANS ACCEPTED ORBÁN'S RULE, WHILE POLES REJECTED PIS AUTHORITARIANISM AND TURNED TOWARDS DEMOCRATIC VALUES - RADOSŁAW MARKOWSKI IN GW. -- AVERAGE RESULTS OF POPULISM, ILLIBERALISM AND AUTHORITARIANISM IN POLISH SOCIETY ARE LOW - MARKOWSKI CONTINUES IN GW: “In Poland, there is a clear difference in attitudes and assessments between the PiS electorate and the electorates of the liberal-democratic opposition parties in most dimensions (except for trust in institutions – the lowest rating among all countries). This indicates a decidedly more pluralistic and divided political landscape. The average results of populism, illiberalism, and authoritarianism in Polish society are low; populist attitudes are negligible, and in the case of authoritarianism, it is quite the opposite: Poles exhibit by far the strongest anti-authoritarian tendency among all studied societies; there are practically no significant illiberal attitudes.” -- FINALLY, IN POLAND, 43% OF SOCIETY ACCEPTS A "LEADER STANDING ABOVE THE LAW," AND ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT A SMALL NUMBER, THE PHENOMENON IS ALMOST HALF AS COMMON AS AMONG HUNGARIANS - WRITES MARKOWSKI IN GW. https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30628125,polacy-i-wegrzy-moze-i-bratankowie-ale-calkiem-rozni.html -- GOVERNMENT, DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE VOICE OF CITIZENS. END THE PUSHBACKS - MAREK BEYLIN IN GW: “However, in the fervor of these necessary battles to extract Poland from the PiS-dominated violent state, the ruling elites are overlooking another important stake: caring for social dialogue and respect for human rights. The new government continues PiS's policy towards refugees on the Polish-Belarusian border. According to official data, from December 13, 2023, to January 15, 2024, 93 people were expelled to Belarus. Against the law and common decency, as only torment, including the threat to life, awaits them in Belarus.” -- IT ONLY HAS THE CAPITAL OF VOTER TRUST. WEAKENING IT IS A RECIPE FOR DEFEAT. INCLUDING OURS - BEYLIN'S CONCLUSION IN GW: “I know, however, how often strong, victorious democratic parties tend to marginalize citizens' voices. PiS took this to the extreme, listening only to its own interests, but to a lesser extent, this is also a problem for every democracy. However, the Coalition of October 15 does not have the services or media that will solidify its power. It only has the capital of voter trust. Weakening it is a recipe for defeat. Including ours.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30628193,wladzo-nie-lekcewaz-glosu-obywateli-zakoncz-push-backi.html -- DESPITE EARLIER ANNOUNCEMENTS, ABORTION PROJECTS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE SENT FOR A FIRST READING THIS FRIDAY, JANUARY 26 - MAGDALENA CHRZCZONOWICZ IN OKO.PRESS: “Despite earlier announcements, which we wrote about on Tuesday, January 23, abortion projects will probably not be sent for a first reading this Friday, January 26. On January 24, Sejm Marshal Szymon Hołownia said: “Today, the Left has supplemented one of its projects with the necessary opinions. This allowed me to assign print numbers to both of these projects. Civic Coalition is also preparing its project, which Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced and with which he will be ready. Third Way has also announced its project on this matter, perhaps it will submit it within a week. So I will wait until these projects are submitted to the Sejm. But there will be no freezing. Perhaps it will be necessary to read these projects simultaneously. Not to discuss each one on a different day.” https://oko.press/aborcja-do-12-tygodnia-legalna-ale-bez-dekryminalizacji-ko-publikuje-swoj-projekt -- UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY TURNS 46 TODAY! -- 18 YEARS OF CONTACT LENSES, 10 YEARS OF DO RZECZY. -- BIRTHDAYS: Stanisław Tyczyński, Ryszard Czarnecki, Justyna Pochanke, Kazimierz Barczyk, Jacek Włosowicz, Janusz Czapiński, Katarzyna Zdanowicz.