state of play: 01/13/2024

STATE OF PLAY: Is Hołownia positioning himself as the coalition's potential joint presidential candidate? Majmurek: PiS might hibernate in the catacombs longer than we think.

Łukasz Mężyk

-- (Archival cover of Dziennik Bałtycki) -- FIFTH ANNIVERSARY OF PAWEŁ ADAMOWICZ'S DEATH: “- Gdańsk is generous, Gdańsk shares its goodness, Gdańsk wants to be a city of solidarity. This is a wonderful time of sharing goodness. You are loved. Gdańsk is the most wonderful city in the world. Thank you! – these were Adamowicz's last words before the attack”. https://wyborcza.pl/7,82983,27996149,to-byl-czlowiek-o-zlotym-sercu-tak-gdanszczanie-zegnali-pawla.html -- VIGIL IN GDAŃSK AT 7 PM WITH THE PRESIDENT'S REPRESENTATIVE. -- TUSK DOES NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ABORTION REFERENDUM - AS HE SAID YESTERDAY: But if it is the only way, we will come back to this question – should we do it or not? But we must, of course, ask women about it. https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/01/12/tusk-jestem-przeciwny-referendum-ws-liberalizacji-aborcji-ale-jesli-to-bedzie-jedyny-sposob-to-wrocimy-z-tym-pytaniem-czy-mamy-tak-robic-czy-nie/ -- HE SET THE HOUR OF CONTACT WITH THE BROAD ELECTORATE ON HIS TERMS AND WON PERFECTLY - BOGUSŁAW CHRABOTA IN RZ: “Donald Tusk exuded calm, giving a clear signal that he was in control of both the political situation and the state. Chaos, violent disputes, and the legal dualism we live in were thereby pushed into the background, becoming almost imperceptible. If that was the prime minister's goal, he set the hour of contact with the broad electorate on his terms and won perfectly”. https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art39690861-boguslaw-chrabota-donald-tusk-pojednawczo-ale-z-realizmem -- WOMEN, GIVE TUSK AT LEAST 100 DAYS. HE HAS ONLY BEEN GOVERNING FOR 30, AND YOU ARE ALREADY DEMONSTRATING - AGNIESZKA KUBLIK IN GW: “In the monologue from "Barbie", there is a line: "Always stand out and be grateful, but never forget that the system is rigged." Well, it's not always rigged. When the protest was happening, Tusk's government had been in power for 27 days. 27! That is definitely too short to assume that "the system is always rigged." https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,30582480,kobiety-dajcie-tuskowi-chociaz-100-dni-rzadzi-dopiero-od-30.html -- CERTAINLY NO PIŁSUDSKI POLITICIAN ANNOUNCED THAT THEY HAD AGREED SOMETHING WITH JUDGES. HOŁOWNIA FEELS CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR THAT TO PASS HIS LIPS - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN RZ: “PiS was accused of trying to influence judicial appointments through constitutional changes, primarily by restructuring the National Council of the Judiciary, thus seeking to manually control their rulings. In reality, they at most attempted this. Did the Warsaw District Court not choose at least the date of the verdict in the Kamiński and Wąsik case to satisfy the new authorities and humiliate the defeated right-wing? Certainly, no PiS politician announced that they had agreed anything with judges. Hołownia feels confident enough (or perhaps is naive enough) for that to pass his lips”. -- HOŁOWNIA SEES "POLITICIZATION OF THE SUPREME COURT OF MANOWSKA. HE DOES NOT SEE THE PROBLEM OF THE OBSEQUIOUSNESS OF OLD JUDGES, READY TO FIGHT AGAINST PiS IN ANY CIRCUMSTANCES - ZAREMBA FURTHER IN RZ: “In his own efforts to have the appeal considered by the "proper" judges, he is at least an accomplice to this mess. But there is a broader context here. Hołownia sees the "politicization" of the Extraordinary Control Chamber or Supreme Court President Manowska. He does not see the problem of the obsequiousness of old judges, ready to fight PiS in any circumstances. When one perceives reality in this way, one is incapable of finding solutions to the stalemate, even in the judiciary, other than by force. This, of course, refers to legal or administrative violence, not necessarily physical violence”. -- INSTEAD OF MITIGATING THE ATMOSPHERE, HOŁOWNIA TRIES TO ENGAGE IN A COMPETITION OF MILITANCY - ZAREMBA WRITES FURTHER IN RZ: “Politicians of the current opposition and commentators close to them believe that this is proof of Hołownia's naivety, that he is to become a kind of shield for Donald Tusk's endeavors. The leader of Civic Platform and the Prime Minister supposedly hid behind the Speaker of the Sejm. And here we disagree: Tusk is not hiding behind anyone. He clearly patronizes the action against Kamiński and Wąsik. It was difficult to outbid him when he threatened the president with criminal penalties for allegedly hiding the two politicians at his residence. Tusk wants a political cold war in Poland. Hołownia, however, instead of mitigating the atmosphere, tries to engage in a competition of militancy with him”. -- IS HOŁOWNIA POSITIONING HIMSELF AS THE COALITION'S POTENTIAL JOINT CANDIDATE FOR THE PRESIDENCY? - ASKS ZAREMBA IN RZ: “Is this just a matter of Hołownia's convictions, amplified by his ebullient temperament? Perhaps there is something more behind it, which is not necessarily a sign of naivety. Is Szymon Hołownia thus not positioning himself as the potential joint candidate of the entire coalition for the presidency? It seems that this office is his dream. He says publicly that he would like to hold it. The return of speculation – even in connection with the work of the first investigative committee of this term – that he would have had a chance at the presidency if the postal elections had taken place in 2020, likely only strengthens his dreams”. https://www.rp.pl/plus-minus/art39686591-szymon-holownia-dolacza-do-politycznej-walki-palac-prezydencki-sam-sie-nie-zdobedzie -- THE ERA OF LIBERAL, GENTLEMANLY DEMOCRACY HAS ENDED ON THE VISTULA. FORCE HAS COME TO POWER AND WILL NOT GIVE POLAND BACK TO US - BOGUSŁAW CHRABOTA IN RZ: “On Wednesday, when I am writing this text, I am thinking about one more thing. The era of liberal, gentlemanly democracy has ended on the Vistula. Force has come to power and will not give Poland back to us. If the majority taking power considered the use of force against the dismantled PiS state to be necessary, the echo of these actions will only intensify. There will be even more force, today on one side, tomorrow on the other. And justification will always be found for it, because any fact can be justified. This is an escalation that can spread from Poland to other countries. It can destroy the consensus on which European politics has been based so far. It would be bad if in this way we became a bad benchmark for the rest of the continent. It would be the end of the Polish myth. The myth of the golden age of Solidarity. A land of dignified people who love freedom”. https://www.rp.pl/plus-minus/art39686231-boguslaw-chrabota-boje-sie-o-polske -- TO GET RID OF ANY COMPETITOR FOR HIMSELF IN THE RIGHT-WING CAMP, TO GET RID OF THE THREAT IN THE FORM OF ANDRZEJ DUDA AND MARCIN MASTALEREK - CEZARY MICHALSKI IN INTERIA: “If in such a new parliament President Andrzej Duda lost the ability to effectively veto laws, Kaczyński would get rid of a rival for leadership of the right wing. This would of course mean additional risks for Kaczyński, as a Tusk with even stronger power would be an even greater threat to him and his people. However, in Jarosław Kaczyński's hierarchy of political threats and goals, there has long been only one priority: to get rid of any competitor for himself in the right-wing camp. Today, this means getting rid of the threat in the form of Andrzej Duda and Marcin Mastalerek”. https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-kto-przezyje-chaos-tusk-kaczynski-duda,nId,7265059#google_vignette -- A TRAP IS SET FOR THE PRESIDENT, WORTHY OF THE LOGIC OF TERRORISM - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN INTERIA: “A trap is set for the president, worthy of the logic of terrorism. Messrs. Kamiński and Wąsik are hostages in this operation. When the president initiates the procedure for a repeated pardon, for clearly humanitarian reasons, it is announced that he has thereby admitted that the previous one was illegal. In reality, he admitted nothing and succumbed to violence”. -- POLISH DEMOCRACY IS EVOLVING IN A DANGEROUS DIRECTION. INSTEAD OF CORRECTIONS LIMITING THE ABSOLUTE POWER OF THE RULERS, THE LOGIC OF REVENGE IS BEING CONSOLIDATED, LEADING TO EVER GREATER EXCESSES - WRITES ZAREMBA: "Polish democracy is evolving in a dangerous direction. Instead of corrections limiting the absolute power of the rulers, the logic of revenge is being consolidated, leading to ever greater excesses. I will not advise how the current coalition should improve the "PiS system" within the constitution. Certainly, eliminating one-third of judges from the judiciary is not a good idea. It is sad that another part of the judiciary is ready to participate in these excesses. Any authority to which one could appeal is disappearing. Former human rights and rule of law advocates, such as the new Minister of Justice Adam Bodnar, are eagerly participating in manipulating the law”. -- THE GOVERNMENT IS SHAKING OFF VARIOUS CORSETS, UNLIMITED POLITICAL WILL MATTERS, NOT THE SYSTEM OF MUTUAL BLOCKING OF VARIOUS INSTITUTIONS - CLAIMS ZAREMBA IN INTERIA: “Is this "tyranny"? In the literal sense, no, as long as it can be changed through subsequent elections. In the metaphorical sense, to a certain extent yes, because we are dealing with increasingly arbitrary power. However, unfortunately, this power also fulfills Kaczyński's dreams, to a certain extent. The government is shaking off various corsets; unlimited political will matters, not the system of mutual blocking of various institutions. Except that it is not his government achieving this, but a team with opposing goals in several matters”. https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-tyran-tusk-ile-prawdy-w-tym-hasle,nId,7265242 -- A MESSAGE SUITABLE FOR A PARTY DIGGING IN THE CATACOMBS OF RADICAL, CONSPIRACY-THEORIZING RIGHT-WING POLITICS, NOT A FORCE CAPABLE OF SERIOUSLY REACHING FOR POWER - JAKUB MAJMUREK IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “This is a message suitable for a party digging itself into the catacombs of radical, conspiracy-theorizing right-wing politics, not a force capable of seriously reaching for power – especially by winning an independent majority in the Sejm. PiS is positioning itself similarly to how it did at the height of the "Smoleńsk fever" between 2010 and 2014”. -- A PARTY CLAIMING THAT TUSK IS LIQUIDATING POLISH STATEHOOD ON BERLIN'S ORDERS PLACES ITSELF OUTSIDE THE REALM OF RATIONAL PUBLIC DEBATE - MAJMUREK FURTHER: “A party claiming that Tusk is liquidating Polish statehood on Berlin's orders places itself outside the realm of rational public debate and cannot be taken seriously. Such a narrative mobilizes and consolidates a radical electorate, but repels everyone else, frightened by a political force resembling a sect more than a party operating in its own, entirely parallel, deeply paranoid reality”. -- THE COURSE TOWARDS RADICALIZATION AND SELF-MARGINALIZATION OF PiS IS A PROBLEM NOT ONLY FOR THE PARTY BUT FOR THE ENTIRETY OF POLISH PUBLIC LIFE - MAJMUREK FURTHER WRITES IN KRYTYKA: “Going into the local and presidential elections with the message from the March of Free Poles, PiS will most likely lose them. At the same time, this course towards radicalization and self-marginalization of PiS is a problem not only for the party but for the entirety of Polish public life. A well-functioning democracy, after all, needs a wise, substantive, rule-respecting, systemic opposition. The total, anti-systemic style of PiS's opposition degenerates not only Kaczyński's party but, unfortunately, our entire public life”. -- AS A RADICAL OPPOSITION, PLAYING FOR ITS 25-30% OF VOTERS, PiS CAN HIBERNATE IN THE CATACOMBS LONGER THAN ANYONE MIGHT THINK - MAJMUREK'S CONCLUSION: “Unfortunately, we will not have another opposition for a long time. We can only wait for further defeats to force PiS to sober up. Although the turnout at the march on Thursday shows that as a radical opposition, playing for its 25-30% of voters, PiS can hibernate in the catacombs longer than anyone might think”. https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/marsz-pis-byl-sukcesem/ -- BIRTHDAYS: Tomasz Sekielski, Joanna Frydrych, Jacek Żalek, Karolina Korwin-Piotrowska. SUNDAY: Andrzej Diakonow, Kosma Złotowski.

Łukasz Mężyk