-- SUPPORT FOR WARRING UKRAINE: A DOLLAR SHORT, A DAY LATE - ERNEST SKALSKI IN GW: “A dollar short, a day late – this American saying about a unlucky company aptly describes the way Ukraine is being supported. Mainly by the USA, but also by other Western countries. In Poland, we know that Ukrainians are fighting for us. Russia does not directly threaten America. This explains a lot.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30581549,wsparcie-dla-walczacej-ukrainy-o-dolara-za-malo-o-dzien-za.html -- WE ARE HEADING TOWARDS EVEN DEEPER TENSIONS, BECAUSE THE CLOSER UKRAINE GETS TO JOINING THE EU, THE MORE POTENTIAL SOURCES OF CONFLICT THERE WILL BE - PIOTR WÓJCIK IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “It turns out, then, that the differences and tensions between Poland and Ukraine do not stem from politics, but primarily from the real interests of social and professional groups. Politicians merely respond to them, often in not very wise ways, to gain a few support points. If PiS and PO disappeared, the situation would not change much, as their successors would have to find themselves in the same reality. What's worse, we are heading towards even deeper tensions, because the closer Ukraine gets to joining the EU, the more potential sources of conflict there will be. Although this accession is absolutely crucial from the perspective of Poland as a whole, paradoxically, it is precisely with this country that we will have the most differences of interest once it is in the United Europe. These will also resonate in the pre-accession period. That is, much more than before.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/gospodarka/wojcik-koniec-karnawalu-w-relacjach-polsko-ukrainskich/ -- AFTER YEARS, I HAVE COME TO BELIEVE THAT THE KEY TO UNDERSTANDING POLISH POLITICAL CULTURE IS THE CONCEPT OF "THE CULTURE OF EXAGGERATION" - PROF. ANTONI DUDEK IN CONVERSATION WITH JAROSŁAW KUISZ IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “After years, I have come to believe that the key to understanding Polish political culture is the concept of ‘the culture of exaggeration.’ And this does not only apply to the Third Republic. We love to exaggerate. If we disagree, we can immediately move to arguing about those differences, or look for something that connects us. In our case, what connects us is overlooked, and the focus shifts to differences, which grow to unimaginable proportions. For quite a long time, I tried to take politicians' statements seriously and wondered why there is no political terrorism in Poland. Because when you listen to President Kaczyński say that Poland is perishing, PiS should be organizing urban guerrilla warfare instead of fighting for TVP. Earlier, I heard from the other side that PiS would not give up power peacefully. These fears were based on the same foundation of the culture of exaggeration, according to which today PiS announces that the Polish state has turned into a totalitarian regime, and one of its professors appeals to draw on the experiences of martial law and organize food parcels for prisoners of conscience.” -- WAŁĘSA WAS ALSO A VICTIM AND, AT THE SAME TIME, A CREATOR OF THE CULTURE OF EXAGGERATION. HOWEVER, HE NEVER DARED TO DO ANYTHING THAT WOULD BE A USE OF FORCE - SAYS PROF. DUDEK TO KUISZ: “It was crossed very quickly. The roots of the new version of post-communist Polish polarization lie in the ‘war at the top,’ in 1990, from which I begin this book. We remember those attacks on Lech Wałęsa during the election campaign, mainly from ‘Gazeta Wyborcza’ – that if Wałęsa became president, it would be the beginning of authoritarianism and the end of democracy. Wałęsa indeed did strange things from a democratic culture perspective, but he only spoke. At the peak of the crisis with SLD, he said: I will not bring tanks to the streets, if only because I have the Nobel Peace Prize. That was Wałęsa all over. Yes, there was the Drawsko dinner [a meeting of Lech Wałęsa with military commanders in 1994, during which the possibility of revoking civilian authority over the army by the Minister of National Defence was discussed – editor’s note], but nothing came of it. Wałęsa was also a victim and, at the same time, a creator of the culture of exaggeration. However, he never dared to do anything that would be a use of force.” -- TUSK WILL GOVERN IN THIS DECADE - BELIEVES DUDEK: “The question remains about Kaczyński’s health, because Tusk is in much better shape. And it is he, in my opinion, who will govern Polish politics in this decade. Tusk is fresh from a victory, holds the majority of the strings in his hands, is more experienced than his coalition partners, and they will not easily outmaneuver him. Kaczyński has it worse. He must come up with a candidate for president. Someone new, young, whom he will promote as he once did Andrzej Duda.” -- IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO WIN ELECTIONS IN FOUR YEARS BY SAYING THAT POLAND IS RULED BY A GERMAN AGENT. HE HAS TO COME UP WITH A NEW 500 PLUS - FURTHERMORE, DUDEK TELLS KUISZ IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “And Kaczyński must decide what to do with the party’s message. Because the one he continues after October 15th lost on October 15th. It is impossible to win elections in four years by saying that Poland is ruled by a German agent. He has to come up with a new 500 plus. The question is whether he is capable of it. Probably not.” -- APART FROM THE CULTURE OF EXAGGERATION, WE ALSO HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE UNHAPPY. IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO EXPLAIN TO FOREIGNERS WHY WE ARE NOT SATISFIED, WHY SUCH SHARP DISPUTES OVER SUCH INSIGNIFICANT MATTERS ARE TAKING PLACE - FURTHERMORE, PROF. DUDEK IN KL WITH KUISZ: “However, apart from the culture of exaggeration, we also have a tendency to be unhappy. It is impossible to explain to foreigners why we are not satisfied, why such sharp disputes over such insignificant matters are taking place. This book describes the beginning of the dispute between Platform and PiS, and the personalities of Tusk and Kaczyński emerge. After all, in 2005, Poland was to be governed by a PO-PiS coalition. And after the elections, both sides realized that – as Marek Migalski noted – where two fight, both benefit. Platform and PiS have been benefiting from this for eighteen years and cannot stop fighting, because then they will leave the stage. And the Polish center is very weak and unable to take power. So, we will have a PO-PiS fight for some time longer. However, it is possible that after a generational change, the temperature of the dispute will somehow be lowered. Especially since we face enormous energy, geopolitical, and military challenges that will require some cooperation. Without it, the state may fall apart, and the duality in the justice system, which will lead this country to paralysis, may also contribute to this.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2024/01/09/kuisz-czy-to-koniec-tvp/ -- THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT THE RADICALISM OF ALL SUCH ACTIONS IS NOT SO MUCH JUSTIFIED AS SIMPLY NECESSARY. WE ARE DEALING WITH SOMETHING MUCH MORE THAN JUST A DEMOCRATIC CHANGE OF POWER - RAFAŁ KALUKIN IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “There is no doubt that the radicalism of all such actions is not so much justified as simply necessary. We are dealing with something much more than just a democratic change of power. Under PiS rule, democracy was shaken; a third term under Kaczyński’s thumb would likely not have survived. Hence the extraordinary significance of the October 15th elections with their stunning turnout and record mandate for the democratic camp. The unwritten social contract now gives it permission to break continuity in many areas, and it is even obliged to a series of renewal acts. Even if – as often happens at similar moments – it is sometimes difficult to separate noble intentions from common revenge. Because such sentiments can also be felt now, although it is primarily thanks to PiS, which established a regime of institutionalized contempt and, even after relinquishing power, is incapable of even a trace of reflection. He who sows the wind reaps the whirlwind.” -- THE LEFT MAY HAVE TROUBLE MAINTAINING SUPPORT - FURTHERMORE, KALUKIN IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “The optimism in the ranks of KO or Trzecia Droga is not accidental, but the Left, now merged into the background – more of a spectator than an active manager of the process of restoring democratic normality – may have trouble maintaining support. Hence the public appeals from its leaders to go to the next elections in one large bloc. This is unlikely to happen, but one should not expect major tensions because of it either. At least not in the two quick campaigns that await us now.” -- KACZYŃSKI ALWAYS HAD A NATURAL PROPENSITY FOR POLITICAL MADNESS AS SOON AS HE LOST GROUND - FURTHER WRITES KALUKIN IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “Kaczyński always had a natural propensity for falling into political madness as soon as he lost ground. When he endorsed the burning of a ‘Bolek’ effigy after the defeat of Porozumienie Centrum, and even more so after the Smoleńsk catastrophe. However, back then, he mainly simulated madness to mobilize the hardest base on the forward outposts. Which would make some sense today, as in the local elections, and even more so in the European ones, there is no chance of repeating the turnout from the parliamentary elections.” -- PIS STILL HAS A BROAD SOCIAL BASE – IT JUST NEEDS (OR DOES IT?) TO GATHER IT BACK TOGETHER AND RENEW THE CONTRACT - THE FOLLOWING MONTHS MAY BE CRUCIAL - FURTHERMORE, KALUKIN: “PiS still has a broad social base – it just needs to (or does it?) gather it back together and renew the contract. The coming months may prove crucial, because if Kaczyński or his potential successor manages to maintain the unity of the camp, next year’s presidential elections will be an opportunity for a new opening. Therefore, if Tusk seriously considers reversing the rules of toxic polarization and shifting the axis of division – and his repeated declarations of reconciliation should be understood as such – it is best to do it now, while the opponent still seems dazed.” -- THE TASK OF DEMOCRATS IS TO ORGANIZE CHAOS AND REBUILD RULES THAT WILL ONCE AGAIN IMPOSE A RESTRAINT ON POLITICAL WILL - CLAIMS KALUKIN: “The task of democrats, in turn, is to organize chaos and rebuild rules that will once again impose a restraint on political will. But for this to happen, at the transitional stage, this will must be used broadly and sometimes even brutally. However, in the heat of battle, it is very difficult to explain this convincingly. On the other hand, there is great potential for the narrative that, in fact, they are all equally bad, because politics is inherently dirty and comes down to a squabble over the trough.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2240995,1,porzadki-u-augiasza-pis-dostal-w-splot-medialny-i-sie-pogubil-kolejne-miesiace-beda-kluczowe.read -- CZARZASTY: NO QUARREL IS BEING PREPARED IN THE COALITION - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/01/11/ -- IS POLAND BECOMING A HOSTAGE TO THE POLITICAL WAR BETWEEN PIS AND PO - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “But is this spiral good for Poland? Does escalation – which is in the interest of the largest party in the ruling coalition and the largest opposition party – serve the interests of our country? In a situation of war in the East, does such a deep division not weaken our state’s potential? In a situation where Poland faces important decisions regarding security, energy, rebuilding alliances with the EU, as well as a debate about the future of the Union, is the game of the major forces for escalating the conflict responsible?” -- WHAT WILL BE THE RESULT OF CONSTANTLY STIRRING THE POT - FURTHERMORE, SZUŁDRZYŃSKI: “No, it’s not about cheap reconciliation or forgiveness. If crimes have been committed, those responsible must be punished. However, it is worth appealing for reflection on what constant stirring of the pot will lead to. And on where we want to go as a state.” https://www.rp.pl/publicystyka/art39679041-michal-szuldrzynski-czy-polska-nie-staje-sie-zakladnikiem-politycznej-wojny-pis-z-po -- IT APPEARS THAT NO ONE HAS AN INTEREST IN RELEASING THEM - KATARZYNA SKRZYDŁOWSKA-KALUKIN IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “From all this, there is bad news for Kamiński and Wąsik. It appears that no one has an interest in releasing them. Paradoxically, it seems they will serve their sentences as the court ordered, and their own camp will contribute to this. The President, who insists he has already pardoned them, and PiS, for whom it is profitable to have their prisoners of conscience, thus it is not profitable to pressure the president to yield and, under some pretext, maintain his dignity, exercise his right.” -- HIGH TURNOUT CAN ADD ENERGY, AND LOW TURNOUT WILL SHOW THAT EVEN MORE EFFORT IS NEEDED - FURTHERMORE, SKRZYDŁOWSKA-KALUKIN IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “The turnout at Thursday’s ‘March of Free Poles’ is significant for two reasons. Firstly, for diagnostic purposes – what mobilizing force does PiS have, with such advantages as ‘prisoners of conscience’ and media taken ‘by force.’ And secondly – it is a factor influencing morale. High turnout can add energy, and low turnout will show that even more effort is needed to avoid losing voters. On the day this text is published, the answer is already known.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2024/01/11/skrzydlowska-kalukin-mariusz-kaminski-michal-wasik-uczciwi-ludzie-prezydenta-w-wiezieniu/ -- IT CANNOT BE EXCLUDED THAT SOME PART OF THE DEMONSTRATORS WILL BREAK INTO THE SEJM AND ATTEMPT TO OCCUPY IT - PIOTR ŚMIŁOWICZ IN GAZETA.PL: “The building is still not surrounded by barriers, so it cannot be excluded that some part of the demonstrators will break into its grounds and attempt to occupy it until Kamiński and Wąsik are released, similar to what happened in the Washington Capitol in January 2021. President Andrzej Duda may have similar concerns, hence his Wednesday appeal for calm. The President, as can be heard from his associates, does not rule out applying some form of pardon, provided it does not mean invalidating the first pardon from 2015.” https://jedennewsdziennie.pl/#id=155 -- A POLITICIAN BEHIND BARS SERVES NO STATE, BUT IN CONTEMPORARY DEMOCRACIES IT IS NOT AN EXCEPTION - JACEK ŻAKOWSKI IN GW. -- TRUMP'S POPULARITY IS THE BEST EXAMPLE THAT VOTERS PREFER TO SUPPORT DISHONEST POWER IF THEY BELIEVE THAT HONEST AND DEMOCRATIC POWER DOES NOT MEET THEIR EXPECTATIONS - FURTHERMORE, ŻAKOWSKI: “The fact that Kamiński and Wąsik are behind bars alongside other legally convicted criminals is good, just, and strengthens the rule of law and democracy. But – contrary to the calculations of Mr. President and his party colleagues – the future of democracy, meaning the outcome of the next elections, does not depend on this. The future of democracy depends on how democrats cope with exercising power, not on how the current power settles accounts with the previous one. It is worth remembering this, because Trump’s enduring popularity is the best example that in the 21st century, voters prefer to support undemocratic and dishonest power if they believe that honest and democratic power does not meet their expectations.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30581582,politycy-przestepcy-w-wiezieniu-to-dzis-standardowa-sytuacja.html -- "HUMAN RIGHTS DEFENDERS" HAVE TODAY BECOME DEFENDERS OF THE REGIME. THEY SAY EXACTLY WHAT ALL SPOKESPERSONS OF ALL REGIMES SAY - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “These are sad times, but perhaps they will be of some benefit for the future. It is already clear that a large part of the so-called ‘human rights defenders’ treat these issues simply instrumentally, and even cynically. When necessary, they turn from friends of the imprisoned into those who put opposition politicians – for nothing – in prison. And it is from them that democratic rights and human rights need to be defended today.” -- BEFORE OUR EYES, FORCE IS BECOMING THE ULTIMATE ARGUMENT AND WAY OF GOVERNING - RAFAŁ WOŚ IN INTERIA: “The most important effect of what is happening will be precisely the triumph of force. That is, the exact opposite of what the new coalition – at least officially – pursues. In this sense, we are losing something very important. Before our eyes, the conviction that politics (with all its obvious tarnish) is, after all, a kind of game in which something higher is at stake is fading. The actions of the new government have effectively stripped us of this conviction. What remains for us? What usually remains. Naked force and violence. A situation in which the one who can most effectively enforce this force wins.” -- THE TUSK GOVERNMENT – IN MANY RESPECTS HAS GONE FURTHER - FURTHERMORE, WOŚ IN INTERIA: “Or maybe it will be different. Maybe all this will turn out to be unimportant. And some flood will come that will drown both sides. Someone from the outside will stir this pot, seeing our evident lack of preparedness. I repeat: let’s hope not. However, we must remember that even in the best-case scenario, the precedents being created today will stay with us forever. Until December, one could calmly argue that PiS… But today, not really. Because the Tusk government – in many respects has gone further. And they are responsible today.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-komu-sie-marzy-polska-silnych-ludzi,nId,7262661 -- THE RULING PARTY MAY MISCALCULATE - WIKTOR ŚWIETLIK IN INTERIA: “The one who has the Ministry of Interior and Administration has power in Poland. Marcin Kierwiński, one of Donald Tusk’s closest associates, has the Ministry of Interior and Administration. Yesterday he won, because the stronger one had to win. The law had little to say, because everyone ‘had their own law.’ The services remain. But is it really a victory?” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-hulaj-dusza-piekla-nie-ma-rzadzacy-moga-sie-przeliczyc,nId,7260531 -- LISTENING TO THE PRESIDENT, IT IS HARD NOT TO GET THE IMPRESSION THAT HE FEELS LIKE THE HEAD OF SOME OTHER STATE - WITOLD GŁOWACKI IN OKO.PRESS: “Listening to the president, it is hard not to get the impression that he feels like the head of some other state than the one whose prime minister is currently Donald Tusk. For Duda’s country is a country where a clearly different law and different procedures apply than in the Republic of Poland – in a state whose legal and systemic framework is defined by the constitutional act of 1997. What is this country of Duda, really? Perhaps it is a country from the past, a PiS country, of which Duda currently feels himself to be the president-in-exile? Or perhaps it is a country of his personal imaginings of the state and law – never realized – even during PiS rule?” -- MEANWHILE, AS PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF POLAND, WE CURRENTLY HAVE, AS IT WERE, A VACANCY - FURTHERMORE, GŁOWACKI: “Therefore, it is to his imaginary country that President Andrzej Duda is today trying to invite his entire party, all his political friends, and as many sympathizers as possible. Duda will rule this imaginary country as cautiously as possible, looking after the interests of its citizens and fighting so that they are not disturbed by the evil, treacherous reality – the Republic of Poland. Meanwhile, as President of the Republic of Poland, we currently have, as it were, a vacancy.” https://oko.press/wymyslony-kraj-prezydenta-andrzeja-dudy-widze-to-tak -- PIS IS TAKING TO THE STREETS TO DEFEND MILLIONAIRES AND CRIMINALS - AGNIESZKA WIŚNIEWSKA IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “The president lied when he suggested in his Wednesday speech that Wąsik and Kamiński fought corruption. Quite the opposite – the gentlemen did not fight corruption that existed, but tried to create corrupt actions. They were accused of exceeding their powers and forging documents.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/pis-wychodzi-na-ulice-w-obronie-milionerow-i-przestepcow/ -- BIRTHDAYS: Bogdan Borusewicz turns 75, Lidia Gądek, Piotr Borys, Jacek Kurczewski (turns 81), Witold Gintowt-Dziewałtowski, Piotr Grzymowicz, Paulina Boveington-Fauran.