state of play: 01/04/2024

STATE OF PLAY: Wójcik on Criticism: Two Parallel Legal Circles Will Emerge, Not Only Not Recognizing Each Other, But Also Fighting Each Other, Pietryga: What Legal Quagmire Is the State Stuck In

Łukasz Mężyk

-- "THERE WILL BE A JOINT DECLARATION." GAWKOWSKI ANNOUNCES JANUARY TALKS ON LOCAL ELECTIONS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/01/04/ -- BETWEEN THE STATEMENT AND THE PRESIDENT'S BACKSIDE, A FEW MINUTES PASSED, SO, HONESTLY SPEAKING, WE MADE SOME PROGRESS - ARTUR BARTKIEWICZ IN RZ: “If PiS wanted to position itself as the last righteous ones, on the ramparts of democracy stormed by Donald Tusk and Bartłomiej Sienkiewicz, then one must honestly admit that it was only half successful. On the plus side, after eight years of PiS rule, it should be noted that President Kaczyński answered some questions at all, because for years we got used to statements after which we only watched his receding back. This time, a few minutes passed between the statement and the president's back, so, honestly speaking, we made some progress”. https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art39649851-artur-bartkiewicz-jak-jaroslaw-kaczynski-postanowil-odpowiedziec-na-pytania-po-czym-sie-obrazil-i-wyszedl -- DUDA PUFFS HIMSELF UP IN THE ROLE OF CONSTITUTIONAL GUARDIAN, BUT WANTS TO DEFEND ONLY THE ABUSES HE HIMSELF COMMITTED, E.G., THE KRS LAW. DOES HE HAVE A MACHETE TO SHORTEN THE PARLIAMENT'S TERM? CONSTITUTIONALLY – NO. RATIONALLY – IT WOULD MAKE NO SENSE. DOES HE JUST WANT TO SHOW "HIS PEOPLE" HOW IMPORTANT HE IS? - PIOTR PACEWICZ IN OKO.PRESS. -- DUDA IS PARTICIPATING IN THE GAME FOR POSITION ON THE RIGHT-WING OPPOSITION - PACEWICZ FURTHER: “One way or another, Duda is participating in the game for position on the right-wing opposition (there is no other for now...), which, according to the term used by "Polityka", will be 'total and theatrical'. The key to this game is convincing one's ranks, but also the broader public opinion, that Duda is still a superhero who can shape events”. -- POLITICAL DECISIONS CAN BE AS RATIONAL AS THE LANDING IN SMOLENSK UNDER THE PRESSURE OF NERVOUS POLITICIANS - PACEWICZ ON THE SCENARIO OF SENDING THE BUDGET TO THE CONSTITUTIONAL TRIBUNAL: “PiS is in a strategically worse position than before October 15th, with morale damaged after the lost elections. Adding a move of a coup d'état character would be an additional image burden and a source of mobilization for KO-TD-Lewica voters." The arguments sound reasonable. But political decisions can be as rational as landing in Smolensk under the pressure of nervous politicians”. https://oko.press/zyczenia-dudy-czyli-zlodziej-recydywista-walczy-z-kradziezami-kontr-habitacja-kilka-hipotez -- EUROPE'S WEAKNESS IS ITS DISMEMBERMENT, AND ITS INTEGRATION IS THE BEST THING THAT CAN SERVE POLAND'S SECURITY - JANUSZ MAJCHEREK IN GW: “Europe has a population and military potential (excluding nuclear) many times greater than Russia. Europe's weakness is its dismemberment, and its integration is the best thing that can serve Poland's security. Therefore, we should consider whether the new Polish government should block treaty changes aimed at deepening integration and improving the functioning of the European Union”. -- GLAPIŃSKI SHOULD NOT BE LISTENED TO, BUT AT MOST INTERROGATED, PREFERABLY BEFORE THE HIGH TREASON TRIBUNAL - MAJCHEREK FURTHER IN GW: “Active and effective participation in European integration requires joining the euro zone. Szymon Hołownia and Michał Kobosko declared such an intention during the election campaign; they should return to it, since for various reasons it was not included in the coalition agreement. Poles are ready for this. Glapiński should not be listened to, but at most interrogated, preferably before the High Treason Tribunal”. -- THE ONLY EFFECTIVE REMEDY FOR POLAND'S DEPOPULATION AND AGING POPULATION IS IMMIGRATION - MAJCHEREK FURTHER CLAIMS IN GW: “No improvement in any economic or social parameters will improve demographic indicators, since the richest and most welfare-conscious countries in Europe (Luxembourg, Switzerland, Norway, Finland...) are recording record low fertility rates. The only effective remedy for Poland's depopulation and the aging of its inhabitants is immigration”. https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30560254,prognoza-na-2024-rok-polska-w-cieniu-geopolityki.html -- WE ALREADY HAVE 3-4 MILLION RESIDENTS IN POLAND WHO ARE NOT CITIZENS, INCLUDING OVER A MILLION FORMALLY EMPLOYED. IF THEIR CONSTITUTIONAL RIGHT TO FULL PARTICIPATION IN THE LOCAL COMMUNITY IS NOT TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT IN THE ELECTORAL CODE, POLAND WILL BECOME AN APARTHEID STATE - JACEK ŻAKOWSKI IN GW: “We already have 3-4 million residents in Poland who are not citizens, including over a million formally employed. And there will be more and more of them. According to ZUS, by the end of the decade, we will need 200-400 thousand new working migrants annually. And then even more. This would mean a quarter to half a million new non-citizen residents per year. They will pay taxes, excise duties, and contributions, send their children to schools and kindergartens, use roads and social services, create Polish GDP, contribute to Polish pensions, etc., but if their constitutional right to full participation in the local community is not taken into account in the electoral code, Poland will become an apartheid state, not a democracy”. https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30560212,samorzady-dla-mieszkancow-a-nie-tylko-dla-obywateli.html -- I SUSPECT THAT KAMIŃSKI AND WĄSIK MAY END UP IN PRISON FOR A SHORT TIME. IF THIS HAPPENS, PIS WILL UNLEASH HELL - JAKUB MAJMUREK IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “I suspect that Kamiński and Wąsik may end up in prison for a short time. If this happens, PiS will unleash hell, trying to politically capitalize on it as much as possible. As soon as public interest in the topic wanes, the president will quietly pardon both convicted individuals. This should close the dispute over the invalidation of their mandates – because if the president pardons them again, it means that he himself acknowledges that the first pardon was not effective, and therefore the 2023 verdict was correctly issued and resulted in the automatic invalidation of both politicians' mandates”. -- HOŁOWNIA MAY FACE A MUCH MORE SERIOUS TEST THAN BANTER WITH MAREK SUSKI - MAJMUREK FURTHER: “PiS may think otherwise and will fight for Kamiński and Wąsik to remain in their parliamentary seats. Hołownia may face a much more serious test than banter with Marek Suski – because if he is unable to enforce the decision regarding the two convicted MPs, PiS will not leave him alone for the rest of his term”. -- "ON THE FACE OF IT," A SUSPENDED PRISON SENTENCE COMBINED WITH A SUFFICIENTLY LONG BAN FROM HOLDING PUBLIC OFFICE WOULD SEEM LIKE A MORE PROPORTIONATE PUNISHMENT - MAJMUREK WRITES FURTHER: “Should it be an unconditional prison sentence? One can have doubts about this; 'on the face of it,' a suspended prison sentence combined with a sufficiently long ban from holding public office would seem like a more proportionate punishment. However, the court decided otherwise based on existing provisions”. -- HOWEVER, A SERIOUS, QUITE SIGNIFICANT EUROPEAN COUNTRY CANNOT MAKE THE EXECUTION OF A FINAL COURT RULING DEPENDENT ON FEARS OF HOW KACZYŃSKI AND THE PIS CROWD WILL REACT - MAJMUREK STATES: “One can ask the question: would it not be better for political reasons if the two PiS MPs did not go to prison? If the court decided that the presidential pardon closed the matter? Because if they do go, they will become martyrs for half of Poland, PiS will create even more of a circus than in the case of changes in public media, and the president – as he announced – will talk to the world about the 'political prisoners of the Tusk government.' However, a serious, quite significant European country cannot make the execution of a final court ruling dependent on fears of how Kaczyński and the PiS crowd will react”. https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/kaminski-wasik-beda-siedziec-komentarz/ -- THE CASE OF THE FORMER HEADS OF THE CBA SHOWS LIKE IN A CLOSE-UP WHAT KIND OF LEGAL QUAGMIRE OUR STATE IS STUCK IN - TOMASZ PIETRYGA IN RZ: “Dual authority, legal dispute is spreading and infecting further institutions. And there is no force today to stop this chaotic dance. Today, the dispute is intensifying. Deprived of their immunity, Kamiński and Wąsik continue to participate in parliamentary work, contrary to the decision of Marshal Szymon Hołownia. And among lawyers, another dispute is ongoing about who should deal with the appeal of the CBA heads in the Supreme Court. Because the outcome depends on which chamber the case goes to – whether to the one dominated by 'new' judges or 'old' ones – which could determine the verdict (today a decision was made that the Chamber of Labour and Social Security will deal with the case). This is a terrible situation, which builds further pyramidal legal disputes, with a tendency to deepen and mutually exclude the legality of the decisions made”. https://www.rp.pl/opinie-prawne/art39650571-tomasz-pietryga-sprawa-mariusza-kaminskiego-i-macieja-wasika-historia-zatoczyla-kolo-nie-ma-sily-by-zatrzymac-chocholi-taniec -- THE MINISTER OF CULTURE ACTED FOR A CONSTITUTIONALLY JUSTIFIED PURPOSE. IN THE MATTER OF PUBLIC MEDIA, ALTERNATIVE ACTIONS AIMED AT REALIZING CONSTITUTIONAL VALUES WERE NECESSARY - LAWYERS DR HAB. PIOTR MIKULI AND DR MACIEJ PACH WRITE IN OKO.PRESS: “A peculiar 'state of emergency' applies here, as there has been a breakdown of essential constitutional functions due to the actions of autocrats. Therefore, the promoted emergency constitutionalism in the approach we have adopted has positive connotations. The difference between the principles of transitional justice and the concept of a state of constitutional necessity would lie primarily in the fact that the latter refers more to procedures and interpretations of law, including the constitution, than to establishing the content of substantive law to be applied to past times. The application of special solutions in this regard is related to the fact that the transition from a dual state is a process that spans time”. https://oko.press/minister-kultury-wobec-mediow-publicznych-dzialal-w-celu-usprawiedliwionym-konstytucyjnie -- STEP BACK WHILE YOU STILL CAN. RETURN TVP TO ITS LAWFUL AUTHORITIES, THAT IS, TO PRESIDENT MICHAŁ ADAMCZYK. RETURN POLISH RADIO AND PAP. TAKE AWAY THE USURPERS - JACEK KARNOWSKI ON WPOLITYCE: “The damage is enormous. But it can still be minimized. The December 13th team can still withdraw from this attack on free media. They can still reverse at least some of the consequences of what they have done. Also for their own good. The illegal pacification of TVP, Polish Radio and PAP is the beginning of the end of this government. It marks the entire rule of the four-party coalition with the deadly poison of martial law. A poison that will eventually lead to an explosion, which in turn will sweep away the new regime. Especially since it came to power based on a thousand lies. Step back while you still can. Return TVP to its lawful authorities, i.e., to President Michał Adamczyk. Return Polish Radio and PAP. Take away the usurpers. The cost of this retreat will be much lower than the final bill that History will present you with”. https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/676917-cofnijcie-sie-dopoki-jeszcze-mozecie-oddajcie-tvp-polakom -- APOCALYPTIC FORECASTS FOR 2024. OBVIOUSLY, MANY OF THESE FORECASTS WILL NOT COME TRUE. HOWEVER, IT IS ENOUGH FOR TWO OR THREE TO COME TRUE, AND IT WILL STILL BE DISASTROUS. SO IT IS BETTER TO BE PREPARED FOR ALL OF THEM - PIOTR WÓJCIK IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA. -- IT CAN BE SAFELY ASSUMED THAT TWO PARALLEL LEGAL CIRCLES WILL EMERGE, NOT ONLY NOT RECOGNIZING EACH OTHER, BUT ALSO FIGHTING EACH OTHER - WÓJCIK FURTHER: “It is still unknown which side the Supreme Court will take, which has unexpectedly clashed with the current Constitutional Tribunal. However, it can be safely assumed that two parallel legal circles will emerge, not only not recognizing each other, but also fighting each other. In order to get anything done based on any documents, an ordinary citizen will have to keep their fingers crossed that the given office accepts them”. -- WITHOUT FINANCIAL AND MILITARY SUPPORT FROM THE USA AND THE EU, UKRAINE WILL BE IN AN EVEN WORSE SITUATION, WHILE RUSSIA WILL RAISE ITS HEAD - WÓJCIK FURTHER: “The political stalemate will also drag on in the EU, where Orbán will do everything to make life difficult for Ukrainians. Deprived of financial and military support from the USA and the EU, Ukraine will be placed in an even worse situation, while Russia will raise its head. The turmoil in the West will prompt China to intensify trade with Moscow of dual-use goods, from which Russia will build thousands of tools for mass murder at home. Half of them will explode in the faces of the launcher operators, but there will be four more to replace them”. https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/prognozy-na-2024-polityka-polska-swiat/ -- IF SOMEONE WAS BORN WHEN JAN KRZYSZTOF BIELECKI BECAME PRIME MINISTER, they are turning 33 today! JKB served as Prime Minister from January 4, 1991, to December 6, 1991. -- BIRTHDAYS: Stanisław Wądołowski, Andrzej Adamczyk, Marek Borowski turns 77, Bartosz Węglarczyk 52, Sławomir Wiatr.

Łukasz Mężyk