-- LOST PROFITS FROM THE EURO - PIOTR SKWIROWSKI IN RZ: “The Polish government should set a course for the euro. The benefits outweigh the costs – say economists. Economists agree that every year without the euro brings Poland losses. Losses that the government has not even counted for eight years. Previously, reports on the effects of adopting the common currency were prepared by the government plenipotentiary for the introduction of the euro in Poland. PiS, opposed to replacing the zloty with the common currency, abolished this office. There is also no department for integration with the euro area at the National Bank of Poland.” https://www.rp.pl/waluty/art39643191-ile-polska-traci-na-tym-ze-nie-jest-w-strefie-euro -- A RETURN TO A SERIOUS DISCUSSION ABOUT THE COMMON CURRENCY IS NEEDED - BOGUSŁAW CHRABOTA IN RZ: “A return to a serious discussion about the common currency is needed. Do we Poles gain or lose without the euro? What privileges does the common currency give us? What doors does it open, what does it close? Will the euro accelerate or slow down our country's development?” -- POLAND, I DARE TO BELIEVE, AFTER THE POLITICAL CHANGES THAT OCCURRED LAST AUTUMN, HAS A CHANCE TO RETURN TO A PRAGMATIC, IDEOLOGY-FREE DEBATE - CHRABOTA FURTHER IN RZ: “Because Poland, I dare to believe, after the political changes that occurred last autumn, has a chance to return to a pragmatic, ideology-free debate on national raison d'état. And adopting the common currency, like other paths of integration, is a matter of primary importance for our future. And without alternative.” https://www.rp.pl/opinie-ekonomiczne/art39643301-boguslaw-chrabota-czy-to-juz-czas-na-wprowadzenie-w-polsce-euro -- ZANDBERG: THE NATURAL FORMULA FOR STARTING IN THE EUROPEAN ELECTIONS IS POLITICAL BLOCKS, JUST AS THEY LOOK LATER IN THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/01/02/ -- THE NEW GOVERNMENT AND COALITION WILL SHOW HOW THEY MANAGE GOVERNANCE, IT WILL BE DECIDED HOW LASTING THE EFFECTS OF THAT SOCIAL UPRISING ARE - MARIUSZ JANICKI IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “The measure of the democratic coalition's success in the local government elections will be the collective defeat of PiS in the regional assemblies and not losing any city. A real victory would be taking several voivodeships from Kaczyński's party beyond the current state, i.e., taking over, for example, 13, or even 14 out of 16. This would be a turning point, also psychologically, as it would show local politicians that PiS is permanently weakening, and it is worth joining new forces, because they have the future and opportunities ahead of them. -- IF TRZECIA DROGA ACHIEVES A CLEARLY BETTER RESULT THAN IN THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, AND KO A NOTICEABLY WEAKER ONE, THERE MAY BE A DESIRE TO RENEGOTIATE - FIRST DEPUTY EDITOR-IN-CHIEF OF TYGODNIK POLITYKA FURTHER: “If Trzecia Droga achieves a clearly better result than in the parliamentary elections, and KO a noticeably weaker one, there may be a desire to renegotiate, even informally, the coalition agreement and increase TD's share in the power structure”. -- THIS CONFRONTATION WILL SHOW WHERE THE COLLECTIVE CONSCIOUSNESS OF POLES IS - WRITES MARIUSZ JANICKI: “This confrontation, of a political and civilizational dimension, will show where the collective consciousness of Poles is. It will also show the condition of the two main rivals who have been shaping the Polish political scene for decades, and whether PO/KO will finally manage to fight 'solo' with PiS successfully.” -- IN 2023, DESPITE EVERYTHING, A DEMOCRATIC "MIRACLE" OCCURRED. IN 2024, IT WILL BE SEEN WHETHER THE MIRACLE CONTINUES AND WHAT THIS FORESHADOWS FOR THE FOLLOWING YEAR – THE PRESIDENTIAL ONE - JANICKI FURTHER: “The election of the head of state in 2025 is crucial for the process of moving away from a populist vision of the state towards a systemic return to liberal democracy, based on strong laws. In 2023, despite everything, a democratic 'miracle' occurred. In 2024, it will be seen whether the miracle continues and what this foreshadows for the following year – the presidential one. This game is still ongoing, the campaign is not over, and the stakes are constantly rising.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2240007,1,7-kluczowych-pytan-na-2024-rok-i-mozliwe-rozstrzygniecia.read -- IF THE CURRENT RULING COALITION SUCCEEDS ON BOTH THESE FRONTS (ACCOUNTABILITY AND CURRENT GOVERNANCE), KACZYŃSKI'S PARTY WILL NOT SURVIVE 2024 AS A FORCE CAPABLE OF RECLAIMING THE POLISH STATE - CEZARY MICHALSKI IN INTERIA: “If the current ruling coalition succeeds on both these fronts (accountability and current governance), Kaczyński's party will not survive 2024 as a force capable of reclaiming the Polish state or at least effectively blocking it. Marcin Mastalerek, who at least sees this dark horizon, would try to prevent the destruction of his own formation, but he has no chance against Kaczyński for now. This ambitious and intelligent politician of the middle generation is trying to ride Duda, who, unlike 'talented Mr. Mastalerek' (a paraphrase from the title of a very successful film from 1999), possesses the tools of the presidency, as well as probably some other qualities, which I, however, could not list.” -- POLAND COULD BENEFIT FROM SUCH AN EXPANSION OF THE POLITICAL SCENE - MICHALSKI FURTHER: “Could Mastalerek, Wipler, and Hofman do more to create some right-wing formation that would at least slightly mitigate the pathologies of the departing (I hope) formation of Kaczyński, Terlecki, and Macierewicz? It won't be my formation, but Poland could benefit from such an expansion of the political scene.” -- FOR THE POLISH STATE TO BE SAFER, IT IS BETTER TO HAVE A CONSERVATIVE AND LOYAL-TO-THE-STATE RIGHT-WING THAN AN ANTI-STATE RIGHT-WING IN THE KACZYŃSKI STYLE - MICHALSKI FURTHER IN INTERIA: “For now, it is worth reminding (for the umpteenth time, including Robert Biedroń, who recently attacks Hołownia as if he, not Hołownia, won the last election, while Biedroń not only did not win the last election, he didn't even run in it, just as for several times before, he was content with maintaining a comfortable Brussels distance from always risky Polish politics) that Poland without PiS does not mean Poland without the right-wing. And for the Polish state to be safer, it is better to have a conservative right-wing loyal to the state than an anti-state right-wing in the style of Kaczyński, Terlecki, Macierewicz... completely wild.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-nowy-rok-bez-pis-u,nId,7238068 -- MORE THAN HALF OF THOSE SURVEYED BY IBRIS BELIEVE THAT PRIME MINISTER DONALD TUSK HAS NOT YET FULFILLED HIS PRE-ELECTION PROMISE TO ENSURE THE FLOW OF FUNDS FROM THE NATIONAL RECOVERY PLAN - ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA IN RZ: “The group of people believing that there is still a long way to go to fulfill the promise is, according to average results, the majority of respondents – 54.3%. Among supporters of the previous ruling camp, as many as 100% of respondents answered that the head of government has 'rather' or 'definitely' not kept his word. Among the undecided, this is 57%. Voters of the current government are more optimistic: among them, only 25% believe that the promise has not been fulfilled.” https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art39642771-sondaz-ponad-polowa-polakow-uwaza-ze-donald-tusk-nie-spelnil-jeszcze-obietnicy-ws-kpo -- WE ARE AWARE THAT WE HAVE A HUGE TASK AHEAD OF US TO DEFEND THE FREEDOM AND INDEPENDENCE OF POLAND - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “Wicked people want to build a media monopoly to, behind a black curtain, without witnesses, once again wind down, sell off, make Poland dependent on foreign powers, and demoralize it. (...) Very soon you will also see changes on the portal we are working on, in which we have been investing intensively for a long time. This will open a completely new stage of our activity in this area. The wPolsce.pl television will also soon appear in a new guise, adapted to the circumstances. Certain corrections are also being made in the weekly 'Sieci'. We are aware that we have a huge task ahead of us to defend the freedom and independence of Poland, carried out together with other media centers and circles independent of Tusk's government. In 2024, mobilization and solidarity of all Polish forces will be needed. We promise that we will do everything to prevent Tusk's darkness from falling upon our homeland.” https://wpolityce.pl/media/676581-przed-nami-potezne-zadanie-obrony-wolnosci-slowa -- WITHOUT IRON CONSISTENCY, THIS REVOLUTION MAY NOT MATCH ELECTION PROMISES - PRZEMYSŁAW SZUBARTOWICZ IN INTERIA: “PiS created a legal duality, led to a situation where everything in this area can be relativized, devalued institutions and their importance, and a group of useful do-gooders will scrutinize every move of the government towards the politicized National Council of the Judiciary or Julia Przyłębska's Constitutional Tribunal. Without iron consistency, this revolution may not match election promises.” -- IF THE NEW GOVERNMENT WANTS TO SERIOUSLY THINK ABOUT CONSOLIDATING ITS SUPPORT AND GAINING SERIOUS LEGITIMACY, IT CANNOT FORGET ABOUT MODERATE VOTERS - SZUBARTOWICZ FURTHER: “The year of local and European elections should become a time for leaders to conquer the broadly understood political center. If the new government wants to seriously think about consolidating its support and gaining serious legitimacy, it cannot forget about moderate voters, who guarantee that domestic politics will not plunge into the abyss of left-right radicalism. Especially since PiS, which intends to delegate the current president towards the center in two years, is well aware that citizens still waiting for their political representation can be found there. Not necessarily delighted by any ideology, exaggeration, or culture war.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-jeszcze-wiecej-wojny,nId,7242993 -- A HOLED DAM ON THE BORDER. WE ARE PUBLISHING A REPORT THAT, ACCORDING TO PIS, DID NOT EXIST - WOJCIECH CZUCHNOWSKI IN GW: “The Border Guard report, which we are now publishing in its original form, listed exactly that in the first nine months of 2023, 17,488 migrants crossed the barrier and were caught. The Border Guard report shows the high number of pushbacks. This is a procedure prohibited by international law, but used by the Border Guard on the direct orders of the then authorities of the Ministry of Interior and Administration. In 2022, this happened 3,962 times, without any registration. 2,005 migrants were pushed back to Belarus with orders to leave the territory of the Republic of Poland. In 2023, there were 16,281 pushbacks (without registration), and 1,207 people received expulsion orders.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,30546175,dziurawa-zapora-na-granicy-ujawniamy-raport-ktorego-wedlug.html -- THE GOVERNMENT FORMED BY THE COALITION OF OCTOBER 15TH HAS A MANDATE TO GOVERN WITH A STRENGTH UNMATCHED BY ANY PREVIOUS GOVERNMENT - EDWIN BENDYK IN OKO.PRESS: “The government formed by the coalition of October 15th has a mandate to govern with a strength unmatched by any previous government formed after 1989. This is a great political capital when ruling in times of war, polycrisis, and growing uncertainty.” -- HOWEVER STRONG ITS MANDATE TO GOVERN OBTAINED IN ELECTIONS, IT IS SUPPORTED BY POLITICAL CAPITAL OF AN EXTREMELY COMPLEX BUT ALSO FRAGILE STRUCTURE - BENDYK FURTHER: “Thus, the political capital of the ruling camp is based on a complex relationship, in which, alongside the bonds of loyalty of stable supporters of specific formations, a component of uncertainty that plagues the part that voted despite all doubts is strongly present. Taking this component into account may be crucial for the success of the ruling coalition. Because however strong its mandate to govern obtained in elections, it is supported by political capital of an extremely complex but also fragile structure. It will also be important to understand that even if PiS, as a result of electoral defeat, is marginalized, or even decomposes, the structural reasons for which PiS came to power will not disappear.” -- THE ELECTION CALENDAR FAVORS THE OCTOBER WINNERS, ALTHOUGH THEY SHOULD REMEMBER THAT THE GREAT POLITICAL CAPITAL MENTIONED AT THE BEGINNING, OBTAINED AS A RESULT OF THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN AND VICTORY, IS SOMETHING EXTREMELY FLEETING - BENDYK FURTHER: “In Poland, the coalition of October 15th will most likely consolidate its political gains during the local government elections in April and the European Parliament elections in June. The election calendar favors the October winners, although they should remember that the great political capital mentioned at the beginning, obtained as a result of the election campaign and victory, is something extremely fleeting. Like any form of capital, to quote the classic, it is not something constant but a form of social relationship. In this case: the relationship connecting politicians with their voters and, more broadly, with society.” -- POPULISTS HAVE DISCOVERED THAT THE COSTS OF TRANSFORMATION CAN BE AS GOOD A FUEL FOR POLITICAL MOBILIZATION AS FRIGHTENING IMMIGRANTS - BENDYK FURTHER: “The problem is that even these insufficient actions taken, for example, by the European Union within the framework of the European Green Deal, are causing increasing social opposition. The conservative French newspaper 'Le Figaro' even writes about an ecological counter-revolution in Europe, and the British 'The Economist' has written similarly. Populists have discovered that the costs of transformation can be as good a fuel for political mobilization as frightening immigrants. The basis for this effectiveness is not the unawareness of the climate crisis by the 'dark' masses susceptible to populist propaganda. This basis is the structural problem described earlier and the broken prosperity pump. In such a situation, transformation is perceived as another attempt by the richest to accumulate wealth at the expense of the poorest. Simply assuring that the transformation is to be fair is not enough as long as the prosperity pump mechanism is not reversed to reduce inequality.” https://oko.press/nadzieja-mimo-niepewnosci-bendyk-na-nowy-rok -- 2024 WILL ALSO NOT BRING PEACE - JAKUB MAJMUREK IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “Analysts predict, admittedly, that the global economy will avoid recession next year. A slowdown in growth is expected, with a recovery in 2025. However, unforeseen events, such as the internationalization of the conflict in the Middle East, the collapse of Ukraine's defense, or a war over Taiwan, could radically change these predictions.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/swiat/co-sie-wydarzy-na-swiecie-w-2024-roku/ -- BIRTHDAYS: Piotr Łukasz Juliusz Andrzejewski, Joanna Kopcińska.