state of play: 12/28/2023

POLITICAL STATE OF PLAY: Nizinkiewicz: The Prime Minister Plays Chess, the President Plays Checkers; Świetlik: Surely the Third Way Electorate Voted for Calm; Karnowski: Is Decertification Awaiting PiS in the End? GW: Borys Wants to Run Against Raczyński

Łukasz Mężyk

-- ZGORZELSKI ON POTENTIAL PSL SUPPORT FOR THE PARTNERSHIP LAW: WE ARE VERY CAUTIOUS, THERE ARE CONCERNS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/12/28/ -- THE MINISTER OF CULTURE'S USE OF PROPRIETARY RIGHTS OVER MEDIA, BY REFERRING TO THE COMMERCIAL COMPANIES CODE, MAY BE CONSIDERED PROPORTIONAL AND CONSTITUTIONALLY GROUNDED. HOWEVER, IT IS A SECOND-BEST SOLUTION, LEGALLY WEAKER - PROF. EWA ŁĘTOWSKA IN OKO.PRESS. -- EFFET UTILE, THIS IS PRECISELY THE "SECOND CHOICE" OF THE COMMERCIAL COMPANIES CODE WITH PROPRIETARY RIGHTS PALLIATIVELY USED BY THE MINISTER OF CULTURE, INSTEAD OF – AS ONE WOULD WISH – LEGISLATIVE ACTIONS - PROF. ŁĘTOWSKA CONTINUES: “At the time, the Constitutional Tribunal itself recommended that – when quick legislative change cannot be counted on – those applying the law should interpret it in such a way as to at least partially return to constitutional principles. We therefore have something akin to the principle of *effet utile* known from European law (the obligation to actively seek such an interpretation to find a solution that ensures the objective is achieved). And this is how I would understand the significance of the recent Sejm resolutions. The legalistic assumption – 'how it should be' in the rule of law state collides with the purely political 'as the opponent allows', and the balance point is a measure that is, although legal, nonetheless a 'second choice'. We thus have a political Sejm resolution (strategic, symbolic, and propaganda goals) and we have – this is precisely the 'second choice' – the Commercial Companies Code with proprietary rights used palliatively by the Minister of Culture, instead of – as one would wish – legislative actions.” https://oko.press/letowska-ruch-sienkiewicza-zakotwiczony-w-konstytucji -- THE GOVERNMENT MAJORITY BEHAVED LIKE A PERSON WHO, AFTER BEING HIT IN THE FACE MULTIPLE TIMES, DECIDED TO DEAL WITH THE AGGRESSOR HIMSELF. EVEN IF HE HAD THE MORAL RIGHT TO DO SO, HIS ACTION WOULD STILL BE VIGILANTISM - PIOTR ŚMIŁOWICZ IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY. -- SO FAR, THERE ARE FEW VOICES ON THE GOVERNMENT'S SIDE THAT DO NOT FIT INTO THE LOGIC OF CONFRONTATION. THE SCENARIO OF REPAYING FOR THE WRONGS OF THE PAST EIGHT YEARS IS WINNING FOR NOW - ŚMIŁOWICZ CONTINUES IN TYGODNIK: “So far, there are few voices on the government's side that do not fit into the logic of confrontation. The scenario of repaying for the wrongs of the past eight years is winning for now. Senator Grzegorz Schetyna's voice is one of the few exceptions, who admitted on Thursday in Radio Trójka that 'it will not be possible to introduce a new media order without the participation of President Andrzej Duda'. -- RENUNCIATION OF THE PRINCIPLE OF POLITICAL REVENGE WAS ONE OF THE SIGNIFICANT COMPONENTS OF POLAND'S POLITICAL SUCCESS BETWEEN 1990-2015 - ŚMIŁOWICZ'S CONCLUSION: “After the transformation in 1989, its authors were harshly criticized for the 'thick line' and the lack of sufficient accountability for the previously ruling communists. Today, it is clear that the renunciation of the principle of political revenge was one of the significant components of Poland's political success between 1990-2015. Later, this logic was abandoned, and the principle of political revenge and the destruction of opponents began to dominate. As of now, the 'coalition of October 15th' has not abandoned this principle.” https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/media-publiczne-zwyciezyla-logika-zemsty-185751 -- TUSK WAS SCARED AFTER ALL. HE NOW KNOWS THAT THE PRICE FOR THE "ENTRY OPERATION", FOR USING METHODS FROM MARTIAL LAW, IS VERY HIGH - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “In sum, lots of words, little substance, and yet a step back. Tactical, but still. The special pacification operation was only partially successful, and Tusk knows it. He also knows that the price for using methods straight out of martial law is very high. In two weeks, the new government has made the term 'coalition of December 13th' not a malicious insult, but a reference to the true nature of the power.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/676110-tusk-jednak-sie-przestraszyl-wie-ze-cena-jest-wysoka -- PIŚ IS UNABLE TO WIN THE WAR FOR CONTROL OVER PUBLIC MEDIA IN THE LONG RUN - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “And this is precisely what the ruling camp is counting on in the longer term. That later, PiS will not gain much by prolonging the current chaos. Voters will eventually get tired of it. Moreover, the occupations of TVP and PAP buildings smell of the familiar boorish behavior of the gentry from Polish history. All the more so because PiS cannot ultimately win the dispute over the media. It may succeed in one court battle or another, but the verdict of the October 15th elections is inexorable – voters have shown that they do not want such a TVP and the propaganda disseminated from it.” -- THE RULING COALITION USED THE PRESIDENT'S VETO TO TRY AND BREAK THE IMPASSE OVER THE MEDIA - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI CONTINUES IN RZ: “The ruling coalition used the president's veto to try and break the impasse over the media. Citing a lack of stable funding sources, on Wednesday afternoon, Minister Bartłomiej Sienkiewicz placed TVP, PR, and PAP into liquidation. This, firstly, cuts short discussions about the legal correctness of the Minister of Culture's previous decisions, and secondly, allows the president's veto to be used for another counterattack.” https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art39624161-dlaczego-nowa-koalicja-idzie-na-zwarcie-z-prezydentem-andrzejem-duda -- HOW ANDRZEJ DUDA HELPED DONALD TUSK'S GOVERNMENT SOLVE THE PROBLEM OF TVP AND PUBLIC MEDIA - JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: “Close it down, plow it under, and rebuild it anew – that was Donald Tusk's team's original plan for public media. After unnecessary days of bickering and legal disputes, President Duda, with his veto, helped implement the government's plan. Presidential minister Marcin Mastalerek can rage now, but the truth is that his superior laid himself open to the government team and played into their scenario of absolute change.” -- THE PRIME MINISTER PLAYS CHESS, THE PRESIDENT PLAYS CHECKERS - NIZINKIEWICZ CONTINUES IN RZ: “The Prime Minister plays chess, the President plays checkers. Andrzej Duda has shown that he stands no chance in a dispute with the government. By harming himself, he will also harm PiS. I would not want to hear what Jarosław Kaczyński thinks about the head of state.” https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art39625931-jacek-nizinkiewicz-jak-andrzej-duda-pomogl-rozwiazac-rzadowi-tuska-problem-tvp-i-mediow-publicznych -- KACZYŃSKI'S MEDIA CONGLOMERATE WILL NOT BE CREATED. NO TELEPIS NEWS WILL EMERGE - AGNIESZKA KUBLIK IN GW: “Tomasz Sakiewicz. Perhaps he will now be the most important media guru for Kaczyński? Perhaps the Karnowski brothers? Oh, they would like to, they would. Because there is no shortage of competitors. (...) Because until now, the media of power, both governmental and private, lived largely at our expense. State treasury companies directed streams of advertising there, unrelated to readership or viewership. Perhaps a few faces from the propaganda TVP will briefly join Sakiewicz or the Karnowskis. But the rest? They have no interesting prospects. They've earned it.” https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,30544523,sakiewicz-czy-bracia-karnowscy-do-kogo-teraz-kaczynski-bedzie.html -- TUSK 2.0 GOVERNMENT - A MORE PRECISE "POLICY OF LOVE" - CEZARY MICHALSKI IN GW: “Tusk knows that Poland without PiS does not mean Poland without the right. In the new ruling coalition, PSL and Hołownia are the most natural entities to take over the more conservative electorate. It is worth allowing them a lot, especially since they demand little in terms of real governance. PSL wants to survive (which was impossible under PiS rule). Hołownia wants to be president (giving Tusk key areas of current state governance). They should be allowed to strengthen their role as the 'right leg' of the broad democratic camp of power. This does not mean, however, that Tusk will leave them the entire task of creating an offer for the more conservative electorate, if only because this electorate still remains the majority in Poland. He has already begun to position himself realistically, centrist, or even center-right on immigration policy.” -- TUSK, SPEAKING REALISTICALLY ABOUT IMMIGRATION, POLAND'S AND EUROPE'S BORDERS, HAS CHOSEN A LANGUAGE THAT IS BECOMING DOMINANT ALSO IN EUROPEAN INSTITUTIONS - MICHALSKI CONTINUES IN GW: “Tusk, speaking realistically about immigration, Poland's and Europe's borders, has chosen a language that is becoming dominant also in European institutions. PiS can babble about another Brussels immigration capitulation, which is supposedly the migration and asylum pact just adopted by EU institutions. In reality, however, it means a clear tightening of the EU's immigration policy. Sensible and realistic, provided it is implemented.” -- UNLESS A TOO STRONG "SYMMETRICAL" DISRUPTION APPEARS WITHIN THE POWER CAMP ITSELF OR ITS MEDIA-OPINION FORMING BACKING… - MICHALSKI CONTINUES: “Unless a too strong 'symmetrical' disruption appears within the power camp itself or its media-opinion forming backing, the first actions in the spirit of a 'more precise policy of love' can be considered a success.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30544300,rzad-tuska-2-0-bardziej-precyzyjna-polityka-milosci.html -- IF THESE METHODS SUCCEED, DELEGALIZATION AWAITS PIS IN THE END - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “The matter is serious. The battle for the media is a battle for a fundamental issue: the rule of law. If the coalition of December 13th wins easily, if the price for this thuggery turns out to be low, if the independence camp accepts the forceful method of taking over institutions, it will be the end of hope for any tangible change in Poland in the foreseeable future. Other independent institutions will be quickly taken over. Then, Polish identity-strong media will be targeted. A moment later – identity-weak media, but also those that are even partially independent. At the end of this road is simply the delegalization of PiS and all forces that would try to take up the banner of freedom and sovereignty.” -- IF THERE IS NO POLITICAL FREEDOM IN POLAND, EVEN THE BEST IMAGE WILL NOT HELP PIS - KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: “Whoever counts on a quick reversal of October 15th risks both frustration and real defeat. Today, we must fight to save democracy and pluralism. Only if PiS saves the rule of law from the assault of a special junta will the classic game for power make sense. If there is no political freedom in Poland, even the best image will not help PiS. Therefore, analyses of social attitudes that are absurd in today's situation cannot be a justification for desertion and de facto capitulation. https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/676081-jesli-te-metody-przejda-na-koncu-pis-czeka-delegalizacja -- HOŁOWNIA AND KOSINIAK-KAMIYSZ WILL BE THE LOSERS OF THE MEDIA BATTLE - WIKTOR ŚWIETLIK IN INTERIA: “The electorate of Tusk's coalition partners, especially the Third Way, often voted for calm. After all, the Polish 'third way' was partly supposed to be about this. In the world, this term usually means a departure from both market economy and communism, and in their place, seeking some statist-social economic mix. Here, it was supposed to be about building a state without constant political brawls and inciting hatred between two tribes, serving as a living argument for a ban on access to weapons. Meanwhile, the opposition leaders took part in Donald Tusk's game.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-przegranymi-bitwy-o-media-beda-holownia-i-kosiniak-kamysz,nId,7233576 -- END OF COALITION WITH PIS IN KATOWICE. A KO POLITICIAN WILL BECOME THE NEW DEPUTY MAYOR - GAZETA.PL: “In Katowice, a significant political change has occurred a few months before the local government elections. After nine years, Deputy Mayor Mariusz Skiba from PiS is losing his position, and his successor will be Jarosław Makowski from KO. Civic Coalition is entering into an alliance with the largest club, 'Forum Samorządowe i Marcin Krupa', in the city council. https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,30544523,koniec-koalicji-z-pis-w-katowicach-nowym-wiceprezydentem-zostanie.html -- PIOTR BORYS, A CIVIC PLATFORM DEPUTY, HAS ANNOUNCED HIS RUN FOR MAYOR IN LUBIN, WHERE ROBERT RACZYŃSKI, LEADER OF THE NON-PARTISAN SELF-GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS, HAS BEEN GOVERNING FOR 25 YEARS - ARTUR BRZOZOWSKI IN GW: “Civic Coalition achieved a very good result in the parliamentary elections, and now representatives of Platform want to capitalize on this political momentum and repeat the success at the local level – in the local government elections. PO has very ambitious plans, as they intend to take power in two large cities in Lower Silesia – Lubin and Legnica. In both centers, the same mayors have been in office for a very long time. In Lubin, Robert Raczyński has been in power for 25 years (1990-1994 and from 2002 to today), and in Legnica, Tadeusz Krzakowski has been mayor since 2002. It is significant that Raczyński has always won the mayoral elections in the first round, so dethroning him will be a huge challenge.” https://wroclaw.wyborcza.pl/wroclaw/7,35771,30543764,posel-platformy-chce-odejsc-z-sejmu-i-zostac-prezydentem-w-bastionie.html -- FOR THE RESTORATION OF LOST TRUST, IT IS NECESSARY TO CARRY OUT A SANITATION CLEAR TO CITIZENS, TO PROPOSE A "NEW BEGINNING" – EVEN IF IT WILL BE A PROCESS SPREAD OVER TIME - PROF. MACIEJ PICHLAK FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WROCŁAW IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “For the restoration of lost trust, it is necessary to carry out a sanitation clear to citizens, to propose a 'new beginning' – even if it will be a process spread over time. This is a process requiring both imagination and social listening, which, unfortunately, has not been the first virtue of legal circles until now. It seems sensible, however, to make a nationwide referendum part of such a sanitation, which could (both symbolically and effectively) set new principles for the functioning of the Constitutional Tribunal or the National Council of the Judiciary, i.e., the most compromised institutions.” -- A REFERENDUM COULD ALSO LIMIT THE RISK OF PRESIDENTIAL VETO ON IMPLEMENTED REFORMS - PROF. PICHLAK CONTINUES IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “As experience from various countries shows, this form offers a chance to develop socially understandable solutions even for complex problems. Conducting a referendum could also, incidentally, limit the risk of presidential veto on implemented reforms, as well as ensure greater stability of adopted solutions than in the case of ordinary laws, but these are topics for separate discussion.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2023/12/28/pichlak-przywracanie-praworzadnosci-nie-wystarczy/ -- MACIEJ DUSZCZYK IN MSWiA, MIGRANTS IN THE SEJM WITH MARSZAŁEK HOŁOWNIA - KATARZYNA PRZYBORSKA IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “Marszałek Hołownia has just removed Poland from this Lukashenko and Putin policy, and only a firm adherence to this strategy – that is, changing the narrative about migration – has a chance to get us out of the trap set by the dictators. And along with the change in narrative, a migration policy should commence, and not just one based on cooperation with agencies for fencing off Europe, but a multidimensional one, drawing conclusions from the neglect of European countries where migration exacerbates inequalities, and using strategies proven by them. Giving the EU's migration policy a new, decidedly anti-fascist tone. I don't know if a deputy minister's position is enough for this, I think it's a task for a separate ministry.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/maciej-duszczyk-w-mswia-migranci-w-sejmie-u-marszalka-holowni/ -- MANIFESTO OF THE OLD GUARD OF LIS AND MILLER - AGNIESZKA WIŚNIEWSKA IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “I read the book 'Premier' clutching my head and thinking, what on earth is going on (they defend Pope John Paul constantly, by the way). I call the book 'Premier' a manifesto of the old guard not because they occasionally slip in a sexist comment or tell a retro anecdote. Quite the opposite, both interlocutors play the old guard note consistently and further reinforce each other in the conviction that it is a good note, a good old-fashioned, vintage one, while for me it's the note of a worn-out, uncool record.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kultura/czytaj-dalej/wieslaw-zobacz-czy-tu-nie-ma-jakichs-dziewczyn-manifest-dziaderstwa-lisa-i-millera/ -- 34 YEARS AGO, THE SEJM PASSED 10 LAWS CONSTITUTING THE SO-CALLED BALCEROWICZ PLAN. -- BIRTHDAYS: Natalia de Barbaro, Wojciech Kozak, Witold Zembaczyński.

Łukasz Mężyk