state of play: 12/20/2023

STATE OF PLAY: Kosiniak-Kamysz - Politician of the Year, Chrabota: Enough PiS Whining, Let's Not Confuse Perpetrators with Victims, Pietryga: Resolutions Pave the Way for Further Action

Łukasz Mężyk

-- ALTHOUGH OUR GEOPOLITICAL SITUATION IS FAR FROM FRENCH OR SPANISH, WE ARE BEGINNING TO REACT SIMILARLY - JAROSŁAW KUISZ IN INTERIA: “One can therefore wonder to what extent we have become accustomed to war, like Western European societies. The declining interest in the war, the layoffs of war journalists, etc. – including in Poland – would indicate this. This is a paradoxical phenomenon. It would mean that although our geopolitical situation is far from French or Spanish, we are beginning to react similarly, without diminishing the interests of the carriers. These are simply the facts.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-przewoznicy-rosja-i-geopolityka,nId,7218718 -- POLITICIAN OF THE YEAR: WŁADYSŁAW KOSINIAK-KAMYSZ - PIOTR ŚMIŁOWICZ IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “The frontmen are Donald Tusk and Szymon Hołownia. But their alliance would not have happened without the leader of the PSL, who resisted PiS’s temptations, even though he was offered the position of prime minister. (...) When Poland 2050 opposed inviting Michał Kołodziejczak to joint lists, putting the matter to a knife-edge, he persuaded his own party to make concessions, thus saving Third Way. In the early 1990s, experts predicted a political future for Tusk, then a young leader of the KLD. They were not wrong. Today, it is increasingly said that the PSL leader could be one of the pillars of Polish politics in 20 years. That's probably a good thing.” https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/polityk-roku-wladyslaw-kosiniak-kamysz-185711 -- TUSK: WITH ADMIRABLE ZEAL, PiS POLITICIANS ARE FULFILLING THE NEXT POINTS OF SIENKIEWICZ'S PLAN - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/12/20 -- AS "RZECZPOSPOLITA" HAS ESTABLISHED – THERE WILL BE NO MAJOR PURGES IN PUBLIC MEDIA - JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ: “Changes at TVP are to take place before Christmas. However, as "Rzeczpospolita" has established, there will be no major purges in public media. In television, Polish Radio, and the Polish Press Agency, the primary individuals to lose their jobs will be those who betrayed journalistic ethics, violated principles of fairness and objectivity, and employees who exposed public media to financial or reputational losses. (...) – In Polish Television, it's a group of 40-60 employees responsible for turning it into a party propaganda mouthpiece – one of the people involved in the change process tells us. He adds that the changes in Polish Radio and PAP are to be on a smaller scale and proceed more slowly.” https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art39593681-zmiany-w-tvp-jeszcze-przed-swietami-reforma-obejmie-polskie-radio-pap-i-media-orlenu -- THE GROTESQUE PROTEST OF PiS MPS AT TVP. THEY HAD EIGHT YEARS TO MAKE BBC IN POLAND - ARTUR BARTKIEWICZ IN RZ: “That is why the protest of PiS MPs at TVP is so grotesque. After PiS created an unconstitutional body in the form of the National Media Council to seize the media, appointed their politician to head TVP, turned one of TVP's stars into their former spokesperson, and showed a distorted quote from Donald Tusk five times a day in public media simply because Tusk speaks German – now we are suddenly supposed to believe it's about standards and freedom of speech? Marek Suski and his ilk had eight years to turn TVP into the BBC, and Miłosz Kłeczek into Bob Woodward or Carl Bernstein. They failed, and now they need to know when to leave the stage.” https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art39597561-artur-bartkiewicz-groteskowy-protest-poslow-pis-w-tvp-mieli-osiem-lat-by-zrobic-w-polsce-bbc -- ENOUGH PiS WHINING, LET'S NOT CONFUSE PERPETRATORS WITH VICTIMS - BOGUSŁAW CHRABOTA IN RZ: “I have had enough of this irritating whining from PiS politicians that Tusk’s team is fighting freedom of speech and that public media must be saved. These are the heights of hypocrisy. And, as in totalitarian regimes, confusing perpetrators with victims. Removing propagandists is an opportunity to return to normality, to professional standards and the statutory mission. Punishment must be meted out if there was guilt. That's what morality is about.” https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art39593021-boguslaw-chrabota-rozliczenia-w-tvp-dosc-biadolenia-pis-nie-mylmy-sprawcow-z-ofiarami -- THE ILLEGAL ATTACK ON TVP IS THE FIRST ACT OF MORBIDITY, BRUTAL DICTATORSHIP - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “The politicians of the ruling coalition brutally grant the right to practice journalism to some and take it away from others. These are not just words – if you're from an unwelcome editorial office, you won't get into a press conference, you won't get accreditation, you'll be fired. Nothing like this has ever happened on such a scale in free Poland. They believe that taking over the government gives them power equal to that of the Sun King. Everything is theirs: NBP, IPN, TVP, Polish Radio, PAP, they even undermine the president's powers, they want to circumvent laws with resolutions and the Constitution with regulations! A real regime is being born before our eyes. The illegal attack on TVP is the first act of dangerous morbidity, of brutal dictatorship.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/675201-rodzi-sie-na-naszych-oczach-prawdziwy-rezim -- HOŁOWNIA'S PATH TO THE PRESIDENCY IS LONG - INTERIA ON POLLSTER'S SURVEY FOR SE: “The Marshal of the Sejm, with a result of 20%, would have to yield precedence to the Mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski (Civic Platform), whom 30% of respondents would vote for, and a PiS candidate who could count on 27% support.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/kraj/news-holownia-przegrywa-z-trzaskowskim-najnowszy-sondaz-prezydenc,nId,7220787 -- HOŁOWNIA WOULDN'T EVEN COME CLOSE TO ENTERING THE SECOND ROUND - MAREK MIGALSKI IN RZ: “It is also obvious that this PiS candidate would lose decisively in the second round to the current Mayor of Warsaw, but he would be guaranteed to participate in it. Hołownia wouldn't even come close to entering the second round. Indeed, he currently dominates popularity and trust rankings, but firstly, it's unknown how he will be perceived in a dozen or so months and whether people won't get tired of his style, and secondly, because he represents a certain political force, which his personal popularity is certainly lifting, but in turn, the brand of that force (i.e., PL2050) will drag him down personally. To put it bluntly – today he is liked by the Civic Coalition electorate, but if their representative were to compete against him, they would not hesitate and would support Trzaskowski. And there are several times more KO voters than PL2050 supporters.” -- PRESIDENT DONALD TUSK? - MAREK MIGALSKI FURTHER IN RZ: “In 2010, sitting under the chandelier might have been genuinely unappealing to him – he was then the most powerful politician in Poland, full of energy and will to fight. In a year and a half, he will be 68 years old – with a successful international career behind him, and having sent Kaczyński into political retirement. Wouldn't two terms as President of the Republic be a beautiful culmination of his life's journey? I would be surprised if he answered this question negatively.” https://www.rp.pl/publicystyka/art39596371-marek-migalski-prezydent-donald-tusk -- YES, DIFFERENT LAWS CANNOT BE INTRODUCED FOR NOW, BUT THE NEW GOVERNMENT MUST CONSTANTLY, TO THE POINT OF BOREDOM, EMPHASIZE THE WILL TO ESTABLISH THEM - MAREK BEYLIN IN GW: “Ideally, along with an elementary calendar: what can be achieved during Duda's term, and what will not happen as long as he remains president. When and what? – such transparency, combined with honest information about the limits of the government's power, will maintain the fever of democratic hopes. This is crucial. Because if these hopes wither over time, if we feel disappointed in our civic demands again, we will not resist another invasion of authoritarians.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30523467,pielegnujmy-nasza-demokratyczna-goraczke.html -- IN THE YEARS 2015-23, HE HIMSELF BETRAYED NOT ONE, BUT ALL THOSE PRINCIPLES THAT HE SO DILIGENTLY WROTE DOWN IN A LETTER TO HOŁOWNIA - AGNIESZKA KUBLIK IN GW: “Duda clearly has problems with rationally assessing facts. In the years 2015-23, he himself betrayed not one, but all those principles that he so diligently wrote down in a letter to Hołownia. It looks like he reported himself. It's evident that all those years of study were in vain.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,30525191,ja-chyba-snie-czyli-5-paradoksow-dudy.html -- THE CONCEPTS OF THE RIGHT BECAME REFERENCE POINTS FOR DISCUSSION, AND EVEN SOURCES OF MORAL BLACKMAIL, IT'S TIME TO CHANGE THIS - TOMASZ SAWCZUK IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “In recent years, the right has dominated the political imagination of Polish politics in successive spheres. Its concepts became reference points for discussion, and even sources of moral blackmail, which one had to address when trying to say something on a specific sensitive topic. Among recent examples, this was evident, for instance, in the context of discussions about the reform of EU treaties, where the dominant fear became the loss of sovereignty and a European superstate – this narrative served as the reference point, even though it doesn't have to be. The same applies to the discussion about immigration. We can find many such examples. It's time to change this.” -- AN AUTONOMOUS, HOMEY, AND AS COMPREHENSIVE AS POSSIBLE PHILOSOPHY OF GOVERNANCE WOULD BE HELPFUL, THANKS TO WHICH THE RIGHT WOULD ULTIMATELY FIND ITSELF POLITICALLY ON THE DEFENSIVE - SAWCZUK FURTHER IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “Therefore, one could strive for a situation where, in the widest possible spectrum of matters, liberal-democratic political imaginaries become the default. At the same time, the liberal political imagination must respond to objective challenges, because if it is only dominant but does not address the core of political problems, there is a risk that it will only dominate public debate for a while, only to soon crash against some material obstacle. An autonomous, homey (adapted to local conditions), and as comprehensive as possible philosophy of governance would therefore be helpful, thanks to which, in the long run, the right would find itself politically on the defensive. PiS had such a philosophy, while the liberal-democratic side is still striving to articulate it. This 'third step' is a good political task for the next four years.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2023/12/19/trzeci-krok-jaka-bedzie-filozofia-rzadu-donalda-tuska/ -- THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION WILL WELCOME THE SIGNAL FROM THE POLISH SEJM WITH SATISFACTION, RECOGNIZING IT AS AN IMPORTANT STEP IN RESTORING THE RULE OF LAW - TOMASZ PIETRYGA IN RZ: “Andrzej Duda will also likely not honor the consequences of the resolution. In 2017, the President approved the politicization of the KRS by signing the relevant law; it is difficult to assume now that he will admit his mistake by restoring the old procedure for electing members to the Council. However, the European Commission will certainly welcome the signal from the Polish Sejm with satisfaction, recognizing it as an important step in restoring the rule of law and fulfilling the rulings of European courts by Poland.” -- RESOLUTIONS ARE PAVING THE WAY FOR FURTHER ACTION - PIETRYGA FURTHER IN RZ: “The real battle for the judiciary will probably begin at the start of the year. The resolutions are just a prelude to it, paving the way for further action.” https://www.rp.pl/opinie-prawne/art39592241-tomasz-pietryga-jest-projekt-uchwaly-jak-tusk-chce-odbic-krs -- SUCH A LARGE DEFICIT AS THE DONALD TUSK GOVERNMENT HAS RECORDED IN THE DRAFT BUDGET FOR 2024 CANNOT BE SUSTAINED IN THE FOLLOWING YEARS - PIOTR SKWIROWSKI IN RZ: “Everything adds up to the aforementioned deficit. There is no more time this year to tidy up the Augean stables of the budget. But in the following years, such a huge deficit cannot be sustained. Decisions are needed to organize and rationalize spending. All the more so as revenues also leave much to be desired. The program cynically named the 'Polish Deal' by PiS has done a lot of damage. Many solutions will have to be turned upside down, but this is also a task for later, since the budget must be ready by the end of January.” https://www.rp.pl/opinie-ekonomiczne/art39596151-finanse-stajni-augiasza-czyli-budzet-na-2024-rok-wlos-sie-jezy-na-glowie -- THE MAIN CHARGES AGAINST GLAPIŃSKI BOIL DOWN TO THE FACT THAT HE DID NOT CONDUCT A LIBERAL MONETARY POLICY. ONLY THAT HE HAS NO OBLIGATION TO CONDUCT A LIBERAL MONETARY POLICY - PIOTR WÓJCIK IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “Adam Glapiński made countless mistakes, and his communication policy was a nightmare. However, until the new government, or rather the relevant institutions, find hard evidence against him of breaking the law, he should leave at the end of his term. Let's remember that most key decisions in the area of monetary policy are made collegially, so removing the head of the central bank alone will not change much, as people supporting his policy will remain in the Monetary Policy Council and the NBP management. However, the time will come when they will become a minority; a little patience is enough.” -- PRAGUE AND BUDAPEST ALSO DID THIS MORE STRONGLY, AND CURRENTLY INTEREST RATES ON THE VLTAVA AND BALATON ARE MUCH HIGHER THAN IN POLAND. INFLATION IS ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER - WÓJCIK FURTHER IN KRYTYKA: “It is a fact that the Monetary Policy Council started raising interest rates a few months after the Czech Republic and Hungary, which was to be one of the proofs of flawed monetary policy on the Vistula. Prague and Budapest also acted more forcefully, and currently, interest rates on the Vltava and Balaton are much higher than in Poland. Inflation is also significantly higher, which in Poland in November was 6.6%, in the Czech Republic 7.3%, and in Hungary 7.9%. Throughout the inflation crisis, prices in the Czech Republic behaved similarly to Poland, and Hungarian prices at times rose fastest in Europe – inflation reached up to 25% there.” -- THE LATE AND NOT VERY STEEP RATE HIKES IN POLAND, HOWEVER, PROTECTED HOUSEHOLDS PAYING MORTGAGE LOANS – BECAUSE THEY SUFFER THE MOST, NOT LEASEHOLDERS – FROM FINANCIAL TROUBLES - WÓJCIK FURTHER IN KP: “The late and not very steep rate hikes in Poland, however, protected households paying mortgage loans – because they suffer the most, not leaseholders – from financial troubles. Loan non-payment has practically not changed. According to NBP data, in the second quarter of 2023, the indicator of troubled zloty mortgage loans was less than 2%. Before the pandemic, it was slightly over 2%, and in 2012 and 2013, it reached 4%.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/wojcik-glapinski-powinien-odejsc-w-2026-r/ -- BIRTHDAYS: Marcin Fijołek, Kornelia Wróblewska, Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz, Karol Kotowicz, Jagoda Zakrzewska.

Łukasz Mężyk