-- AMERICAN EXPERTS: THE COSTS OF UKRAINE'S POTENTIAL DEFEAT WILL BE HUGE FOR THE USA - SEBASTIAN KLAUZIŃSKI ON OKO.PRESS: “According to American intelligence sources, the Ukrainian army, with the support of the West, has destroyed almost 90% of the Russian army that invaded in February 2022, but the Russians have replaced these human losses and are increasing their industrial base. A victorious Russian army at the end of this war will be battle-hardened and significantly larger than the Russian ground forces before 2022. Russia could pose a serious conventional military threat to NATO for the first time since the 1990s. To deter and defend against a renewed Russian threat after Russia's full victory in Ukraine, the United States will have to deploy a significant portion of its ground forces in Eastern Europe.” https://oko.press/na-zywo/dzien-na-zywo-najwazniejsze-informacje/ukraina-przegrana-koszty-usa --THE EU CAN SAVE UKRAINE. BUT IT DOESN'T WANT TO - JĘDRZEJ BIELECKI ON RZ: “If it weren't for the United States and President Joe Biden, Vladimir Putin would have long ago defeated Ukraine. Now, the task of supporting our eastern neighbor must be taken over by the European Union. But does Europe really want to save Ukraine? The subject of negotiations at the EU headquarters is the amount of 50 billion euros spread over four years, which is about 100 PLN per EU inhabitant annually. This is truly little, considering the consequences of a potential Putin victory. Viktor Orbán blocked the agreement on Thursday, but southern European countries also resisted, wanting to simultaneously force through funds for the protection of the Community's external borders.” https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art39569221-jedrzej-bielecki-unia-moze-uratowac-ukraine-ale-nie-chce --ZIOBRO IS FIGHTING CANCER - JEDYNKA SE: “As we heard from a close associate of the politician, Ziobro is battling a malignant tumor, and the prognosis is difficult. Symptoms of the disease include voice problems: hoarseness, cough, difficulty swallowing, as well as sternal pain. Unfortunately, the disease develops stealthily, which is why it is usually diagnosed only in advanced stages. Zbigniew Ziobro last spoke in the Sejm on November 14, when MPs were selecting members for the National Council of the Judiciary. However, even then, it was noticeable that he had trouble speaking and was bothered by hoarseness. As we have established, immediately after the diagnosis, doctors decided that immediate, rather radical therapy was necessary. This unfortunately involves a long hospital stay and removal from political activity.” https://polityka.se.pl/wiadomosci/poznalismy-kulisy-stanu-zdrowia-zbigniewa-ziobry-sprawa-jest-powazna-jest-ciezko-chory-ma-raka-to-nowotwor-zlosliwy-aa-UHVa-Fm4b-o1ge.html --BODNAR ANNOUNCES SEJM RESOLUTIONS REGARDING THE LEGALITY OF KRS AND TK, HEAD OF EC TO TUSK: THE COMMISSION IS READY TO TRANSFER 5 BILLION EURO TO POLAND AS PRE-FINANCING, WHICH IS AN ADVANCE PAYMENT - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/12/15/ --JOINING THE EUROPEAN PUBLIC PROSECUTOR'S OFFICE HAS GREATER POLITICAL THAN PRACTICAL SIGNIFICANCE. IT IS MEANT TO SHOW BRUSSELS THAT POLAND IS RETURNING TO THE MAINSTREAM - TOMASZ PIETRYGA ON RZ: “Joining the European Public Prosecutor's Office has greater political than practical significance. It is meant to show Brussels that Poland is returning to the mainstream, including in terms of the federal vision of the Union. The application for such accession was the first decision of the new Minister of Justice, Professor Adam Bodnar. Donald Tusk himself also emphasized the importance of this decision in Brussels.” https://www.rp.pl/opinie-prawne/art39572541-tomasz-pietryga-przez-prokurature-europejska-do-glownego-nurtu-unii -- TO CARRY OUT SOME CHANGES, LAWS WILL BE NECESSARY, WHICH IN TURN WILL ULTIMATELY REQUIRE THE SIGNATURE OF PRESIDENT DUDA, WHO IS HIMSELF ONE OF THE AUTHORS OF THE PROBLEMS WE ARE NOW FACING WITH EU FUNDS - JOWITA KIWNIK PARGANA ON JEDENNEWSDZIENNIE.PL GAZETA.PL: “According to information from jedennewsdziennie.pl, it is expected that Tusk will present von der Leyen with a request for the first disbursement of 7 billion euros from the National Reconstruction Plan on Friday. 'And this will be hailed as a great success' - Everything is on the right track. Our efforts began immediately after the elections; today, all institutions know that a renaissance of the rule of law is underway in Poland; no one doubts this. Of course, to implement some of the changes, laws will be necessary, which in turn will ultimately require the signature of President Duda, who is, after all, one of the authors of the problems we are now facing with EU funds.” https://jedennewsdziennie.pl/article/135 -- BY HANDING OVER THE NOMINATION FOR DONALD TUSK'S GOVERNMENT, PRESIDENT ANDRZEJ DUDA IS COMMENCING YET ANOTHER PERIOD OF COHABITATION IN POLISH HISTORY. IT MAY BE MUCH WORSE THAN THE WAR OVER THE SEAT FIFTEEN YEARS AGO - PIOTR ŚMIŁOWICZ IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY. -- IT CAN BE EXPECTED THAT THE MAIN FRONT LINE WILL BE FOREIGN POLICY, ESPECIALLY THAT RELATED TO EU MATTERS - ŚMIŁOWICZ FURTHER IN TYGODNIK: “It can be expected that the main front line will be foreign policy, especially that related to EU matters. Shortly before the end of the Sejm of the previous term, a law was passed that significantly strengthened the president's powers. Duda received, among other things, the right to comment on (and block) Polish candidates for EU positions; he is also to have a say in setting the priorities for Poland's presidency, which falls in the first half of 2025, and to participate in European Council meetings during that time. Politicians of the new majority argue that the aforementioned law is unconstitutional. Senator of Civic Coalition Grzegorz Schetyna, a former Marshal of the Sejm and later Minister of Foreign Affairs, believes so, for example. – The Constitution is very precise; it is the government that is responsible for foreign policy. We want the president to accept this responsibly – says Schetyna.” https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/posypia-sie-iskry-nadchodzi-czas-trudnej-kohabitacji-rzadu-z-prezydentem-185610 -- THIS IS PART OF A LARGER STRATEGY AHEAD OF A SERIES OF ELECTIONS SUPPORTED BY THE EDITORS OF 'NAJWYŻSZY CZAS'. BRAUN AND KORWIN-MIKKE ARE TO TAKE VOTERS AWAY FROM KONFEDERACJA, SLOWLY BLEEDING THEM DRY - JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ ON RZ: “Braun has been suspended in Konfederacja, and in the long term, he faces the same scenario as Janusz Korwin-Mikke. Braun is only theoretically in Konfederacja. He will be kicked out at some point or leave himself. Konfederacja already knows that Braun's action was planned by him and coordinated with the founding of a new party by Janusz Korwin-Mikke and Stanisław Michalkiewicz. This is part of a larger strategy ahead of a series of elections, supported by the editors of 'Najwyższy Czas'. Braun and Korwin-Mikke are to take voters away from Konfederacja, slowly bleeding the formation dry, first by depriving it of credibility, and then by taking over its electorate.” -- PIS WANTS KONFEDERACJA TO BE PERCEIVED AS A PARTY OF CRANKS, SO AS NOT TO BE ROBBED OF VOTERS - NIZINKIEWICZ FURTHER ON RZ: “On the other hand, Braun is indefensible among the rest of the voters, including right-wing conservatives, whom Konfederacja wanted to reach at the expense of PiS. And PiS wants Konfederacja to be perceived as a party of cranks, so as not to be robbed of voters after handing over power. These are the only values that Kaczyński's party fights for – self-interest.” -- IF ANTISEMITISM WERE A PROBLEM FOR PIOTR GLIŃSKI, HE WOULD NOT HAVE WANTED ANYTHING TO DO WITH BĄKIEWICZ EARLIER, NOR WOULD HE HAVE SUPPORTED HIM AS MINISTER OF CULTURE - NIZINKIEWICZ FURTHER: “If antisemitism were a problem for Piotr Gliński, he would not have wanted anything to do with Bąkiewicz earlier, nor would he have supported him as Minister of Culture. Depriving Krzysztof Bosak of the position of Deputy Marshal of the Sejm will be a gift to PiS.” https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art39568541-jacek-nizinkiewicz-dlaczego-grzegorz-braun-zaatakowal-w-sejmie-i-jak-uratowal-go-szymon-holownia -- THE POLISH STATE HAS INSTRUMENTS TO DEAL WITH GRZEGORZ BRAUN. WE ARE NOT HELPLESS EITHER - MICHAŁ OKOŃSKI IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “Grzegorz Braun is not a case that calls for theological debate – a more appropriate form of reaction to his excess would rather be a prosecutorial investigation related to the violation of articles 119, 157, 195, and 257 of the Penal Code (as precisely enumerated on Twitter by the future Minister of Justice, Adam Bodnar). The Polish state has instruments to defend itself in such situations.” https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/swiatlo-nie-zgasnie-po-antysemickim-ataku-grzegorza-brauna-w-sejmie-185656 -- THE BEST RESPONSE TO ALL THE WRONGS OF THE AUTHORITIES OF THE LAST TWO TERMS WAS DONALD TUSK'S READING OF PIOTR SZCZĘSNY'S SOMEWHAT FORGOTTEN MANIFESTO - JACEK ŻAKOWSKI IN GW: “However, the best response to all the wrongs of the outgoing government was Donald Tusk's reading of Piotr Szczęsny's somewhat forgotten manifesto. Because the evil of the departing government was described there exactly as it should be. And the perspective of a good alternative is also described there as we need it now. The new prime minister, of course, understands that it won't be easy, but with such a powerful team in the government and parliament, he will manage the legacy left by the previous government.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30508459,przeslanie-szarego-czlowieka-trzeba-odbudowac-wspolnote.html -- GESTURES HAVE DIFFERENT MEANINGS, DIFFERENT MORAL VALUES, BUT ALL ARE PERFECTLY EMPTY - SZCZEPAN TWARDOCH: “Grzegorz Braun's antisemitic gesture is not surprising at all, given that it occurs in the Polish Sejm, the center of political performance with excellent viewership. It belongs to the same order as Prime Minister Tusk's exposé, in which he quotes the manifesto of a suicide victim – the tragic suicide of that person was also a performative act. In the same order are Kaczyński's absurd provocations calling Tusk a German agent, the sharp retorts of Marshal Hołownia conducting proceedings as if he were hosting a talk show, or some minor muppets running around with tablets. These gestures have different meanings, different moral values, but all are perfectly empty, devoid of political substance, belonging neither to the realm of wielding power in its Weberian sense nor to the realm of discourse.” -- THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS BAD PUBLICITY — SAID P.T. BARNUM, A CIRCUS ENTREPRENEUR, AND THUS SOMEONE WHO COULD ALSO BE A SPECIALIST IN POLISH POLITICS, IF HE HAD NOT DIED LONG AGO - TWARDOCH FURTHER: “Politicians aware of being watched will fight for their own visibility, unequivocally identified with political existence. There is no such thing as bad publicity — said P.T. Barnum, a circus entrepreneur, and thus someone who could also be a specialist in Polish politics, if he had not died long ago. The performativity of politics in itself is not the fundamental problem. Someone might say that our entire social life has a performative character to some extent. The problem, however, is when performance in politics becomes the most important thing, more important than the real, than the principle of reality. The assurance about coat buttons, which, combined with ignoring reality, led the performer towards the road to Zaleszczyki, was a performative act.” https://x.com/sz_twardoch/status/1735312394824405434?s=20 -- EXPOSÉ CAN ALIENATE - PIOTR PACEWICZ ON OKO.PRESS: “Tusk places October 15th within the heroic tradition of 'Solidarity' with JPII in his lapel. In this imaginary world, there is no place for young people, especially women, who brought victory to democracy. The exposé can alienate.” -- TUSK'S NARRATIVE RISKS OCTOBER 15TH CEASING TO BE A UNIFYING SYMBOL, EVEN IF THE JOY OF DEMOCRACY'S VICTORY IS UNIVERSAL - PACEWICZ FURTHER: “But the version of 'Solidarity' with JPII in his lapel fails to grasp what this – quoting the exposé – 'peaceful rebellion for freedom and democracy' was, the scale of which surprised us all. It diverges from obvious experience. Tusk's narrative risks October 15th ceasing to be a unifying symbol, even if the joy of democracy's victory is (on our side) widespread and we are ready to accept a parable elevating a simple civic gesture to the sphere of national mythology.” -- HOWEVER, THIS NARRATIVE DOES NOT REACH MANY YOUNG PEOPLE, INCLUDING THOSE IN MY EDITORIAL OFFICE; IT MAY ALIENATE THEM FROM THE STORY OF GOOD OVERCOMING EVIL - PACEWICZ FURTHER ON OKO: “However, this narrative does not resonate with many young people, including those in my editorial office; it may alienate them from the story of good overcoming evil. In the 'Political Program,' Agata Szczęśniak and Dominika Sitnicka pointed out that such an emphasis on a tragic figure is surprising in a speech that, one would think, should inspire hope.” -- TUSK MAY BE OVERESTIMATING THE POWER OF THE MIRACLE THAT OCCURRED ON OCTOBER 15TH; EUPHORIA FADES QUICKLY - PACEWICZ FURTHER: “Tusk may be overestimating the power of the miracle that occurred on October 15th; euphoria fades quickly, especially if it is accompanied by a one-sided and to some extent unjust narrative. Even if a PiS voter thinks, 'This Tusk is different than I saw him on TVP,' a voter from the October 15th Coalition might think: 'This is a completely different Tusk than the one from the election campaign.' Is this gain worth such a loss? I doubt it.” https://oko.press/expose-tusk-wciaz-broni-polski-przed-zomo -- POPULISM FEEDS ON A LASTING PROPERTY OF LIBERAL DEMOCRACY, WHICH TREATS PLURALISM AS A NORM, NOT AS A PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED. MEANWHILE, POPULISM INTERPRETS PLURALISM AS A THREAT AND UNDERTAKES A CONCEPTUAL MOVE THAT REDUCES IT TO POLITICAL UNITY - TOMASZ SAWCZUK IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “Populism feeds on a lasting property of liberal democracy, which treats pluralism as a norm, not as a problem to be solved. Meanwhile, populism interprets pluralism as a threat and undertakes a conceptual move that reduces it to political unity – the political essence expressed by the party of the people or directly by the leader. This is how populist politics deals with the question of how collective will can be expressed when not everyone agrees – namely, people who disagree are enemies of the people; thus, they are removed from view or from existence altogether. According to Schmitt's political philosophy, politicization manifests precisely in the division between friends (in the populist model: the good people) and enemies (in the populist model: the external party, in the Nazi model: Jews). It is expressed in making decisions from which there is no appeal – decisions that, as it were, establish reality. And we will not argue with reality. Clearly, God willed it. Or the leader. Or perhaps the president. In any case, someone willed it and did it, period.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2023/12/12/upior-schmitta-trzy-problemy-demokracji-po-populizmie-tomasz-sawczuk/ -- BIRTHDAYS: Krzysztof Dołowy, Adam Pieczyński, Agnieszka Odorowicz, Jagna Marczułajtis-Walczak, Łukasz Bajbak, Jerzy Dziewulski.