state of play: 12/11/2023

STATE OF PLAY: Kondzińska/Szpala: When Does the New Government Start Governing? KO Has Expert Opinions That the Moment of Sejm's Vote is Crucial, Interia: TVP Situation Will Be a Wild Ride

Łukasz Mężyk

-- PUTIN IS CAPITALIZING ON HIS WINNING STREAK AND GOING FOR MORE - WACŁAW RADZIWINOWICZ IN GW: “What isolation, what arrest warrant? Putin is in the game and calling the shots. Meanwhile, chaos and uncertainty are growing in the opposition camp. In Kyiv – quarrels and searching for culprits for failures at the front. In Washington – a row over promised aid to Ukraine. In Brussels – the same. The whole world seems determined to create a perfect backdrop for Putin to announce that he is standing for ‘election’ as a triumphant victor.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75399,30490367,putin-wykorzystuje-dobra-passe-i-idzie-po-swoje.html -- TUSK ON TWITTER: READY, STEADY, GO!, MASTALEREK: IF PIS MAKES THE SAME MISTAKE AS AFTER 2020 AND FIELDS SOMEONE LIKE KIDAWA-BŁOŃSKA IN 2025, PIS WILL BEGIN TO FALL APART AND DECLINE - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/12/11/ -- WHEN DOES THE NEW GOVERNMENT START GOVERNING? THE SITUATION IS UNPRECEDENTED, KO HAS EXPERT OPINIONS ACCORDING TO WHICH THE MOMENT OF THE SEJM'S VOTE IS CRUCIAL - AGATA KONDZIŃSKA, IWONA SZPALA IN GW: “Therefore, in the second part of the day at 4:30 PM, the election of the majority's prime minister will begin in the Sejm. The next day, Donald Tusk will deliver his exposé and present his ministers to the MPs. Then a vote. The next move will be up to the president, who will formally appoint the Prime Minister and his cabinet. This may happen on Wednesday (Andrzej Duda is in Switzerland until Tuesday). When does the new government start governing? The situation is unprecedented; KO has expert opinions according to which the moment of the Sejm's vote is crucial.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,30487581,dzien-premierow-pis-oddaje-wladze.html -- PIS'S RULE ENDS LIKE THE WORLD FROM T.S. ELIOT'S POEM – NOT WITH A BANG, BUT A WHIMPER. WITH A SHOWCASE PERFORMANCE BY MATEUSZ MORAWIECKI, WHO DESPERATELY PRETENDED TO GOVERN IN THE FINAL DAYS. BUT THE PAST 8 YEARS SHOULD NOT BE TREATED AS A WHIM: PIS HAS SHOWN HOW FRAGILE DEMOCRACY IS - MICHAŁ DANIELEWSKI IN OKO.PRESS. -- LAW AND JUSTICE WAS LIKE A TESTER DISCOVERING FLAWS IN THE FIRST VERSION OF THE THIRD REPUBLIC. A TESTER WHO THEN BECOMES A HACKER – EXPLOITING VULNERABILITIES - DANIELEWSKI FURTHER IN OKO: “Law and Justice was like a tester discovering flaws in the first version of the Third Republic. A tester who then turns into a hacker – exploiting vulnerabilities in the software to gain control of the system. They utilized the systemic deficiencies and weak social legitimacy of key democratic institutions to attempt a brutal pacification of the judiciary and abolish any control over their governance. They exploited the deficiencies in social solidarity and cohesion to secure the gratitude and respect of millions of people for years through simple social transfers. They used the years of disregarding women's rights and LGBT rights to fuel a hysterical, emotional campaign to gather people under their banner in the name of defending traditional values. They exploited the weakness of public media to rapidly transform them into party propaganda mouthpieces. They exploited the fear of the Church that has accompanied all governments since 1989 to weave the state and the Church into a single, harmonious entity, with influence over education, healthcare, business dealings, and the cover-up of abuses. They exploited the long-concealed contempt for the public sector to unceremoniously suppress the teachers' strike, organizing public opinion against them. They used the gray area of private-public entanglement to transform the state into a kind of ATM for those in power and the party.” -- THE HACKERS HAVE BEEN CUT OFF FROM THE NETWORK AND HAVE BECOME GROTESQUE. BUT LET'S NOT BE DELUDED, OTHERS WILL COME AFTER THEM - DANIELEWSKI'S CONCLUSION IN OKO.PRESS: The hackers have been cut off from the network and have become grotesque. But let's not be deluded, others will come after them – with new energy, strength, and ideas, with new malicious software, fields of polarization, conflict, stirring emotions and resentments. The defenses against their activity are known: empathy, solidarity, transparent procedures, equality of rights and opportunities as leading features of the system. Therefore, their construction must begin today. Because the clock is relentlessly ticking.” https://oko.press/pis-pozegnanie-z-wladza -- HE WOULD LIKE TO BE A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT PRIME MINISTER THAN HE WAS IN 2007-2014: MORE EMPATHETIC, PATIENT IN EXPLAINING, WITHOUT FEAR OF STATE INVOLVEMENT - JACEK GĄDEK IN GAZETA.PL: “He has started to take even better care of his health. He has even cut down on smoking cigars, which he likes so much. But it’s not just about cigars. From interviews with him, it emerges that he would like to be a slightly different prime minister than he was in 2007-2014: more empathetic, more patient in explaining, without fear of state involvement. This could herald an eruption of the politics of love once he takes the helm of the government. However, behind such ornamentation lies a very tough player, often brutal in pursuing his goals. Tusk, in his own assessment, was too gentle with PiS and too abrupt with the people. How will it be now? We answer: no longer always as Tusk wants, because he has to govern with many coalition partners.” -- PIS'S RULE – EVEN THROUGH TVP – ENDANGERED HIS AND HIS FAMILY'S SAFETY, EVEN THEIR LIVES, IN TUSK'S OPINION. AND HE WILL NOT FORGIVE THAT - GĄDEK FURTHER: “Tusk is driven not only by political or patriotic motives, but also by more personal ones, because PiS's rule – even through TVP – endangered his and his family's safety, even their lives, in Tusk's opinion. And he will not forgive that.” https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,30490917,rzadowy-alfabet-jest-jeden-donald-ale-sa-tez-nitroslawomir.html -- "IT WILL BE A WILD RIDE." HOW DOES THE TUSK GOVERNMENT PLAN TO RECLAIM TVP? - KAMILA BARANOWSKA AND ŁUKASZ ROGOJSZ IN INTERIA: “- It will be a wild ride, but the new government must be very careful not to fly off the rails – says Juliusz Braun, former chairman of the National Broadcasting Council, former CEO of TVP, and former member of the National Media Council, in an interview with Interia. – A lot depends here on the toughness and determination of the new Minister of Culture. Perhaps that is why Bartłomiej Sienkiewicz, with his experience from the Ministry of Interior and Administration, has been assigned to this task – he emphasizes. Currently, intensive work is underway in the parliamentary majority camp on legal scenarios that would bypass the need for legislative changes. As Interia has learned, there are even about a dozen (the number 17 appears most often) scenarios for taking over TVP without changing the law. Some of them are legally complex, extremely detailed, but also carry significant risk.” -- INTERIA AUTHORS ON THE THREAD OF AGREEMENT WITH THE PRESIDENT: “He also points out that the president has never harbored affection for TVP in its current form or for the National Media Council. – We are counting on his rational approach to the matter. We care about this and have our arguments. The president certainly knows what they are. The issue of the Chancellery of the Prime Minister's budget is just one of them. The president likes his office, he likes it when everything is done with dignity. I don't know why he would complicate his life when he can reach an agreement with us so that both sides benefit and public media can be reformed – he adds.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/autor/lukasz-rogojsz/news-bedzie-jazda-po-bandzie-jak-rzad-tuska-chce-odbic-tvp-znamy-,nId,7201025 -- GW ON THE CBA OPERATION IN THE GOVERNMENT RESERVE AGENCY - AS MARCIN RYBAK AND JUSTYNA WATOŁĄ WRITE: “As we reported, the CBA entered the Government Reserve Agency on Friday, December 8th. But searches were also conducted – according to unofficial information from 'Wyborcza' – at the apartments of several RARS employees, including its president Michał Kuczmierowski and the director of the procurement office at RARS, Justyna Gdańska. – The entry at Michał's was forceful – an informant tells 'Wyborcza'. – There were 'paramilitary personnel,' masked, with long weapons. Probably because the president has a weapons permit. Our interlocutor is certain that Friday's CBA operation is evidence of an internal war within PiS. – People of former special services coordinator Mariusz Kamiński and Zbigniew Ziobro attacked people closely connected with Prime Minister Morawiecki. This is a blow to him – he tells us.” https://wroclaw.wyborcza.pl/wroclaw/7,35771,30490680,cba-szukalo-dowodow-na-korupcje-ludzi-morawieckiego-nowe.html -- TUSK TOLD THE NEW MINISTERS THEY WOULD WORK 24 HOURS A DAY - MICHAŁ KOLANKO IN RZ: “Tusk – as one of our interlocutors, participants in the meeting, reports – also made it clear that the ministers would work almost 24 hours a day. He also encouraged members of the Council of Ministers to cooperate closely.” https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art39544991-plan-donalda-tuska-na-pierwsze-dni-rzadow-jest-juz-gotowy-jest-kilka-kluczowych-sfer -- THE NEW GOVERNMENT WILL SURVIVE IF IT MAINTAINS CITIZEN ATTENTION - ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA IN RZ: “If the new majority fails to meet the expectations of an increasingly active society and allows disappointment to creep in, voter turnout in subsequent elections may be much lower, which for the politically pluralistic new majority will likely mean defeat in the 2024 elections.” https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art39545741-zuzanna-dabrowska-nowy-rzad-przetrwa-jesli-utrzyma-uwage-obywateli -- THE KEY TO THE COMING WEEKS IS TO EFFECTIVELY COUNTER TUSK'S BRAZEN LIES ABOUT THE PIS GOVERNMENT. "PERHAPS THE NEXT ELECTIONS WILL BE DECIDED HERE" - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “Law and Justice, despite the difficult moment of impending loss of power, cannot now descend into inactivity; it must react decisively and effectively. These will be very important weeks for the fight for the true memory of this good period for Poland**. It must be defended. We need to recall the very good state of the country and the economy that Tusk is inheriting, we need to fight for the truth. The reaction in every matter must be swift and concrete.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/673952-kluczem-jest-sprawne-kontrowanie-klamstw-ekipy-tuska -- THE NEW PRIME MINISTER WILL PROBABLY STRIVE TO MAKE POLAND THE TOP STUDENT IN THE EU - TOMASZ PIETRYGA IN RZ: “The ruling coalition has no worldview-based limitations in implementing EU policy, and the groups forming it reflect the mainstream in the EU. Moreover, for the future prime minister Donald Tusk, who feels part of the European elite, this issue will likely be a priority. The new prime minister will probably strive to make Poland the top student in the EU. This is how it was described before PiS, which is outside the European mainstream, took power.” -- HOWEVER, IT IS IMPORTANT THAT – RETURNING TO THE MAINSTREAM AND IMPLEMENTING EUROPEAN LAW – POLAND ALWAYS ACTS IN ITS OWN INTEREST AND THE INTEREST OF ITS CITIZENS, JUST AS OTHER STRONG GOVERNMENTS IN EUROPE DO - Pietryga's conclusion in RZ. https://www.rp.pl/opinie-prawne/art39546071-tomasz-pietryga-czy-polska-znow-bedzie-prymusem -- FOR EXAMPLE, I WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE COMMUNALIZATION OF URBAN LIGHTING, SO THAT HALF OF THE FUNDS FROM REVENUE FROM TRADING CO2 EMISSION ALLOWANCES GO TO MUNICIPALITIES - JACEK KARNOWSKI IN CONVERSATION WITH KRZYSZTOF KATKA IN GW: “Over the eight years, PiS has caused a lot of harm. Let's not hide the fact that there is a lot to fix, including the issue of renewable energy sources, which is also linked to local governments. I would like, for example, to see the communalization of urban lighting, so that half of the funds from revenue from trading CO2 emission allowances go to municipalities, where they would have to be earmarked for the energy transformation of the communal economy. This could lead some cities to energy independence.” https://trojmiasto.wyborcza.pl/trojmiasto/7,35612,30470735,posel-jacek-karnowski-nie-moge-raczej-pracowac-w-komisji-ds.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Dominika Wielowieyska, Paweł Olszewski, Eleonora Zielińska, Sławomir Nowak.

Łukasz Mężyk