state of play: 12/08/2023

POLITICAL GAME: Pietryga: Hołownia has a chance to create a "super-Marshal" office that both Tusk and Duda will have to reckon with. Żakowski: PiS voters did not commit crimes. They must be clearly distinguished from officials.

Łukasz Mężyk

-- GAWKOWSKI: THIS WILL BE A GOOD GOVERNMENT, WITH THE LEFT HOLDING 4 STRONG POSITIONS, TUSK AFTER MEETING WITH FUTURE MINISTERS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/12/08/ -- SZYMON HOŁOWNIA MUST STRIVE NOT TO BE A ONE-SEASON WONDER - TOMASZ PIETRYGA IN RZ: “By removing the barriers in front of the Sejm, starting a YouTube channel, or announcing the opening of a kindergarten for MPs' children, Szymon Hołownia is beginning to engage in symbolic politics. Spectular, but yielding only short-term gains.” -- HOŁOWNIA HAS A CHANCE TO CREATE A "SUPER-MARSHAL" OFFICE THAT BOTH DONALD TUSK AND ANDRZEJ DUDA WILL HAVE TO RECKON WITH - PIETRYGA CONTINUES IN RZ: “Szymon Hołownia is trying to expand this institutionally and conventionally shaped position to create his own political center within the coalition he is part of. The ambitions are there, and they are significant. If vision and action follow, Szymon Hołownia has a chance to create a 'super-Marshal' office that both Donald Tusk and Andrzej Duda will have to reckon with.” https://www.rp.pl/opinie-prawne/art39534061-tomasz-pietryga-szymon-holownia-musi-sie-postarac-aby-nie-byc-gwiazda-jednego-sezonu -- SO THAT CITIZENS WHOSE OPTION LOST THE ELECTION DO NOT FEEL OCCUPIED IN THEIR COUNTRY, THEIR VOICE AND PERSPECTIVE MUST BE REPRESENTED IN PUBLIC MEDIA. THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT POLITICAL PARTIES SHOULD CONTROL THESE MEDIA - JACEK ŻAKOWSKI IN GW. -- THE VOTERS OF THE RIGHT, VIEWERS OF "WIADOMOŚCI" AND TVP INFO, HAVE GENERALLY NOT COMMITTED CRIMES. THEY MUST BE CLEARLY DISTINGUISHED FROM THE FUNCTIONARIES OF PIS WHO DID EVIL - ŻAKOWSKI CONTINUES IN GW: “But the voters of the right, the viewers of 'Wiadomości' and TVP Info, have generally not committed crimes. They must be clearly distinguished from the functionaries of PiS who did evil. They constitute one-third of society, which lost the October election. As citizens, they have a good right to have their views (with exceptions provided by law – e.g., for racism) treated by the state in the same way as views close to the current majority. Even if these views are unwise in our opinion. This, among other things, is what liberal democracy, which we defended against PiS, is about.” -- THE OTHER SIDE WILL SIMPLY REJECT THEM. THEY WILL CREATE THEIR OWN MEDIA OR PROVIDE MASS AUDIENCES TO THOSE THEY HAVE – SUCH AS TV TRWAM OR TV REPUBLIKA. THERE, ALL SORTS OF "TUPOLIZATION" WILL RUN WILD COMPLETELY FREELY - ŻAKOWSKI CONTINUES IN GW: “If we don't figure out how to share with those who have lost, and don't implement such a project, we will, at best, create non-commercial media for one side of the fundamental political divide. Regardless of what they contain, no matter how impartial and professional they are, the other side will simply reject them. They will create their own media or provide mass audiences to those they have – such as TV Trwam or TV Republika. There, all sorts of 'tupolewizm' [a term referencing Jarosław Kaczyński's style of politics and influence, often associated with his late brother Lech] will run wild completely freely. Instead of leveling divisions, we will have a deepening of the chasm dividing society and radicalization on both sides, which will finish off the barely breathing Polish democracy.” -- I URGE THAT WE TRY TO AVOID SUCH A CATASTROPHE BY DRAWING OPPONENTS OF THE CURRENT MAJORITY, WHO ARE WILLING TO ACCEPT THE MINIMAL STANDARDS DESCRIBED IN THE LAW, INTO THE WORLD OF DEMOCRATIC RULES - WRITES ŻAKOWSKI: “I urge that we try to avoid such a catastrophe by drawing opponents of the current majority, who are willing to accept the minimal standards described in the law, which will be guarded by a renewed KRRiT [National Broadcasting Council], into the world of democratic rules. This would give a chance for a community (i.e., creators, recipients, etc.) accepting the constitutional order to emerge on the right-wing populist side. Skeptical of the EU, but not repeating the 'für Deutschland' mantra; traditionally Catholic, but not supporting an attack on the courts; against immigrants, but mitigating racism; rejecting abortion, but reluctant to crusade against LGBT; unwilling to accept liberal media, but accepting their right to exist. In other words, such as the populist-conservative PiS of Lech Kaczyński was, and which the populist-authoritarian PiS of Jarosław has ceased to be.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30483861,podzielmy-sie-mediami-zakowski-tlumaczy-o-co-mu-chodzilo.html -- A GREAT VICTORY FOR PIS IN A FABRICATED BATTLE - ANNA SŁOJEWSKA IN RZ: “However, there is no appetite among member states for treaty changes, no rush to abolish the veto (except in a very narrow area of foreign policy sanctions, and even that is not certain), and certainly no talk of creating a common army. And not because PiS doesn't want it.” https://www.rp.pl/publicystyka/art39534021-anna-slojewska-wielkie-zwyciestwo-pis-u-w-zmyslonej-batalii -- THE TRUTH IS THAT ITS SUCCESS IS DUE TO ANTI-PIS - JUST LIKE THE PIS SUPPORTERS IN 2015 - A LUCKY ALIGNMENT OF VOTES - RAFAŁ WOŚ IN INTERIA: “Reading or listening to some triumphant anti-PiS individuals today, one might get the impression that their political formation achieved an absolutely crushing victory in the October elections. That some 80% of Poles voted for them. And PiS barely crawled into parliament, struggling to clear the election threshold. Only, that is not the truth. The truth is that its success is due to anti-PiS – just like the PiS supporters in 2015 – a lucky alignment of votes. This means the unexpected failure of Konfederacja and the surprisingly good result of Trzecia Droga. A few percent here or there, and we would have a completely different situation today.” -- IT APPEARS THAT TRZECIA DROGA OWES ITS OCTOBER SUCCESS TO THE PHENOMENON OF A PORTION OF VOTERS FLEEING FROM TIRING POLARIZATION - WRITES WOŚ: “It appears that Trzecia Droga owes its October success to the phenomenon of a portion of voters fleeing from tiring polarization. In this sense, a vote for Hołownia and Kosiniak was meant to support balance and a call for more peace. Did they mean 'peace' in the sense of hunting for PiS members in investigative committees and cutting their people in votes on the composition of the presidencies of both chambers of parliament? And does 'balance' for them mean a new version of the ancient principle 'now it's our turn, damn it' and plowing over the entire media order? I don't think so.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-smielej-smielej-krzyczy-do-tuska-jego-medialne-zaplecze,nId,7195434 -- AFTER EIGHT YEARS, WE CAN ADMIT, HOWEVER, THAT ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL BALANCE OF THE KACZYŃSKI GOVERNMENTS IS DECIDEDLY NEGATIVE, THERE WERE ISSUES WHERE PIS WAS RIGHT – AND IT IS WORTHWHILE FOR THE NEW TEAM TO CONSIDER THIS IN THEIR POLICY - JAKUB MAJMUREK IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA. -- PIS POLICY CHANGED THE SOCIAL CONTRACT, CITIZEN EXPECTATIONS OF THE STATE – AND IT WOULD BE DISASTROUS IF THE STATE WERE TO WITHDRAW FROM THIS CONTRACT - MAJMUREK CONTINUES IN KRYTYKA: “Regardless of the evaluation of specific solutions, something else was important: PiS policy changed the default social contract, citizen expectations of the state – and it would be disastrous if the state were to withdraw from this contract. The 'Rodzina 500 plus' [Family 500 plus] program largely became its symbol, and even as a symbol, it is today untouchable. It is worth considering a sensible indexation mechanism so that this policy continues to serve as a tool for reducing child poverty, in which it initially achieved real success.” -- THE NEW GOVERNMENT SHOULD CONTINUE THE MODERNIZATION OF THE ARMED FORCES, BUT REJECTING THE PIS ASSUMPTION THAT WE CANNOT REALLY COUNT ON ANY EUROPEAN ALLIANCES - WRITES MAJMUREK IN KRYTYKA: “The new government should continue the modernization of the armed forces, while rejecting the PiS assumption that we cannot really count on any European alliances. Because Poland can only be safe within the Atlantic and European security architecture, and it is in our interest for Europe to take greater responsibility for its own security.” -- HOWEVER, ONE THING IS CERTAIN: BY BETTING ON ATOM, PIS IS RIGHT, BECAUSE WITHOUT NUCLEAR ENERGY, THE GREEN TRANSFORMATION IS DIFFICULT TO IMAGINE - MAJMUREK CONTINUES: “This year, the government signed an agreement with the Americans for the construction of the first nuclear power plant in Poland. Construction is to begin in 2026, the first unit in 10 years – in 2033. One can have many doubts as to whether the Americans should be building the power plant, and about other details. However, one thing is certain: by betting on nuclear energy, PiS is right, because without nuclear power, the green transformation in Poland is difficult to imagine. It is important that the new government maintains this direction, taking it out of the area of party disputes.” -- PIS'S LEGACY RESEMBLES A BIN BAG. BUT AMONG THESE GARBAGE, THERE ARE VALUABLE ELEMENTS THAT ARE WORTH TAKING OUT OF THE DUMP OF FILTH - MAJMUREK'S CONCLUSION: “The balance of eight years of PiS government is negative. Even where PiS was right, it often spoiled well-intentioned policies through a lack of respect for details, legislative chaos, and subordinating everything to electoral goals. However, in several fundamental issues – social correction, the importance of culture, nuclear energy – PiS correctly diagnosed challenges, and it is worth having these diagnoses become part of the new camp's governing philosophy as well. PiS's legacy resembles a bin bag. But among this garbage, there are valuable elements that are worth taking out of the dump of filth, washing, refreshing, and repairing – because they can serve us all.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/w-czym-pis-mial-racje-majmurek/ -- IT SEEMS THAT AMONG THE FORMER OPPOSITION, AND SOON THE NEW GOVERNMENT, THE LESSON HAS STILL NOT BEEN LEARNED AS TO WHY PIS WON AND WHY IT LOST - GALOPUJĄCY MAJOR IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “So it seems that among the former opposition, and soon the new government, the lesson has still not been learned as to why PiS won and why it lost. It won by fulfilling its promises. Not just any promises, but those that seemed impossible to fulfill, like 500 plus, the liquidation of junior high schools, lowering the retirement age, or taxing civil law agreements. Remember how the budget was supposed to collapse, and Poland would become the second Venezuela and Greece? Nothing of the sort happened, and PiS got a political boost for years. It lost the race for power by breaking its promises. The unwritten agreement with the electorate and conservative politicians was not to touch abortion. Kaczyński broke this agreement – then support dropped and he has not managed to recover in the polls since.” -- IF YOU PROMISED SOMETHING REALLY BIG, YOU MUST DELIVER IT TO THE VOTERS. THAT'S ALL THERE IS TO IT. MEANWHILE, THE NEW GOVERNMENT IS DOING THE EXACT OPPOSITE - MAJOR CONTINUES: “If you promised something really big, you must deliver it to the voters. That's all there is to it. Meanwhile, the new government is doing the exact opposite. It is backing away from the most impactful promises, leaving one: the promise of holding PiS accountable for crimes and scams. However, in this case, accountability is not solely in the hands of politicians. Indictments from a prosecution dependent on the new government or committees full of politicians are one thing. But another thing is the courts, on which, perhaps only after several years, it will depend who, if anyone, will bear responsibility.” -- TUSK'S BIGGEST PROBLEM IS NOT HIS "WOLF EYES" BUT THE LACK OF CREDIBILITY OF HIS PROMISES - MAJOR'S CONCLUSION: “Tusk's biggest problem is not his 'wolf eyes,' Brussels, German, or Moscow connections, as PiS functionaries try to feed us. His biggest problem is the lack of credibility of his promises. And instead of writing 'credibility, you fool' above his desk, Tusk is starting to make all the mistakes he made as prime minister last time.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/nikt-ci-tyle-nie-da-co-rzad-tuska-obieca/ -- POLISH GDP GREW ALMOST THE FASTEST IN EUROPE. EUROSTAT PUBLISHED DATA FOR THE 3RD QUARTER. ​​https://forsal.pl/gospodarka/pkb/artykuly/9375778,polski-pkb-rosl-prawie-najszybciej-w-europie-eurostat-podal-dane-za-i.html -- KGHM CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER: KGHM IS NOT CURRENTLY RELYING ON A SINGLE TECHNOLOGY SUPPLIER – PIOTR PODGÓRSKI, CHIEF TRANSFORMATION OFFICER AT KGHM, TELLS BUSINESS INSIDER: “When two years ago we made the decision to invest in the development of energy based on SMR technology, it was with NuScale that we signed an agreement for preliminary preparatory work. At the same time, we hoped that other suppliers would gradually approach the stage where NuScale is, and in two to three years there would be an equalization of the readiness levels of individual technologies. Therefore, in our application to the Ministry of Climate and Environment for a decision in principle, we included several technologies that we identified during the market review and which were at a stage of advancement that allowed them to be included in the prepared documentation. Therefore, the abandonment of the NuScale project in the USA is essentially neutral for us, because we will be making the investment decision (including the choice of SMR technology) in a few years, when we know which SMR technology is most mature in terms of implementation, but also most cost-effective from KGHM's perspective. This means that KGHM has not been left in the lurch.” https://businessinsider.com.pl/biznes/smr-w-polsce-kghm-nie-rezygnuje-z-malego-atomu-oto-plany-miedziowego-giganta/wljqrpq -- NASK INVITES: “Today (December 8th) at 12:00 PM, we invite you to a webinar 'Secure cashless payments – daily and for holidays!'. Join us, and card payments, #NFC, or... your iris will hold no secrets from you!” https://www.youtube.com/live/qvfswKl8L9I?si=OF6BRLNEsHDBebGs -- 5TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE DEATH OF JOLANTA SZCZYPIŃSKA. She passed away in 2018 after a serious illness, at the age of just 61. -- BIRTHDAYS: Katarzyna Sławińska, Marek Pol, Jacek Michałowski, Tomasz Lenz, Joanna Kos-Krauze, Michał Królikowski.

Łukasz Mężyk