state of play: 12/05/2023
POLITICAL LANDSCAPE: Szułdrzyński: Voters Have Received a Genuine Third Way – Hołownia's Style of Governance, Machowski: The Growth in Votes for Democrats Was Higher in Pro-PiS Districts Than in Opposition Strongholds, Pekao Analysts: Fund Sentiment Toward
-- NITRAS: THERE SHOULD BE A PARLIAMENTARY COMMISSION OF INQUIRY INTO THE MISMANAGEMENT OF THE EUROPEAN GAMES - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/12/05/
-- PERHAPS WE SAW A BLACK-AND-WHITE REALITY AT THE BORDER. WHY? BECAUSE WE WENT TO USNARZ, THEN FURTHER, AND SAW SOMETHING THAT WAS AND IS A FACT, NOT A LIE – THE BREAKING OF LAW, PEOPLE IN HYPOTHERMIA, AND STATE VIOLENCE. BUT YES, WE SHOULD ASK OURSELVES MANY ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS TODAY - MAGDALENA CHRZCZONOWICZ IN OKO.PRESS.
-- WE PRESENTED KNOWLEDGE THAT WAS PERHAPS INCOMPLETE, BUT NOT FALSE - CHRZCZONOWICZ FURTHER IN OKO: “Tomczak accuses activists and journalists (including herself) who believe activist accounts of 'creating false knowledge.' She accuses them of manipulating the truth. She says that her texts were also untrue. I disagree with this framing of the issue. I believe that we presented knowledge that was perhaps incomplete, but not false.”
-- SURELY AMONG THE ACTIVISTS THERE ARE THOSE WHO DELIBERATELY COLORED THE TRUTH TO HELP REFUGEES. BUT THERE WERE ALSO THOSE WHO PREFERRED TO BELIEVE SO AS NOT TO HAVE A LIFE ON THEIR CONSCIENCE - CHRZCZONOWICZ FURTHER IN OKO: “Surely among the activists there are those who deliberately colored the truth to help refugees. But there were also those who preferred to believe so as not to have a life on their conscience. There are also those who are not interested in who found themselves in the forest and why; they simply go to warm them up and feed them when they hear there is a need. The border has turned their lives upside down; they didn't think they would be doing what they are doing. There are certainly those who somehow needed this border and were in fact happy on it. I don't want to psychologize, but this broader context regarding motivations is also important and shapes the perspective on activism. This is also to avoid making activists, as Tomczak writes, 'demigods' and the only 'righteous ones.'”
-- WITH EFFECTIVE SOCIAL POLICIES, TENSIONS CAN BE DEFUSED. THEN THE RACIST DEMONS THAT PiS (AND AT TIMES KO AS WELL) USED DURING THEIR CAMPAIGNS WILL NOT EXPLODE IN OUR FACES - CHRZCZONOWICZ'S CONCLUSION IN OKO: “And how should we talk about this? The fact that people fear migration is certain. However, in order to fight racism, these fears should not be ignored. They should be discussed, and society should be shown that with effective social policies, tensions can be defused. Then the racist demons that PiS (and at times KO as well) used during their campaigns will not explode in our faces.”
https://oko.press/granica-polsko-bialoruska-czy-tworzylismy-falszywa-wiedze-uwagi-do-tekstu-malgorzaty-tomczak
-- MARSZAŁEK HOŁOWNIA IS WORKING ON BETTER RATINGS FOR POLSKA 2050, WHILE THE TWO LARGEST PARTIES – PiS AND KO – ARE LOSING SUPPORT TWO MONTHS AFTER THE ELECTIONS - ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA IN RZ: “Support for Polska 2050 is growing, however. From November to December, it increased from 7.6% to 10.3%, a rise of almost 3 percentage points. In the elections, PL2050 ran together with PSL; their joint list received 14.4% of the votes. The electoral result was almost identical for both parties, and the number of parliamentary seats obtained was almost equal. Now PL2050 is overtaking PSL, and if both groups were counted together, they would obtain just under 18%.”
https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art39516331-sondaz-ko-i-pis-traca-zyskuje-polska-2050-szymona-holowni
-- SUPPORT FOR TRZECIA DROGA IS GROWING IN THE POLL. AND TENSION WITH PLATFORMA IN THE COALITION - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “Voters have indeed received a third way – Hołownia's style of action as Speaker of the Sejm is something new on our political scene. After the unbelievably boring, brutal, and arrogant politicians of PiS holding positions in the Sejm presidium, there has been a qualitative change. And this change clearly appeals to voters. Other polls also show this – for example, IBRiS for Onet – which indicates that Hołownia is today the politician whom Poles trust the most. (...) The position of Speaker of the Sejm, if wisely utilized, can lead to the further strengthening of Hołownia's political position. But if the game is about a similar electorate, this coalition will become a challenge for Platforma Obywatelska.”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art39517011-michal-szuldrzynski-rosnie-poparcie-dla-trzeciej-drogi-i-napiecie-w-koalicji-z-platforma
-- THE PERCENTAGE INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF VOTES CAST FOR DEMOCRATS WAS HIGHER IN PRO-PiS DISTRICTS THAN IN OPPOSITION STRONGHOLDS - ANDRZEJ MACHOWSKI IN GW: “In 'Liberlandia' (pro-opposition areas), the lead of Democrats over PiS increased from 22.2 to 33.1 percentage points (61.5% to 28.4%; in 2019 – 56.6% to 34.4%), while in 'Pislandia' (pro-PiS areas), the lead of PiS over Democrats dropped from 22.8 to just 7.6 percentage points (47.7% to 40.1%; in 2019 – 57.6% to 34.8%). Nationwide, this resulted in a victory for the Democrats over PiS by 17.3 percentage points – four times higher than four years ago (in 2019, Democrats won the elections in terms of vote count by a margin of 4.3 percentage points over PiS; however, this lead was insufficient to win against PiS in terms of seat count within the D’Hondt system, running on three separate lists).”
-- IN 2023, DEMOCRATS RECORDED A NEARLY 28% INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF VOTERS (+27.8%), BUT IN 'LIBERLANDIA' IT WAS +25.1%, WHILE IN 'PISLANDIA' IT WAS AS HIGH AS +34.7% - MACHOWSKI FURTHER: “In 2023, Democrats recorded a nearly 28% increase in the number of voters (+27.8%), but in 'Liberlandia' it was +25.1%, while in 'Pislandia' it was as high as +34.7%. Among the 16 powiats (districts) where the increase in votes for Democrats exceeded 50% (in the record powiat of Leżajsk in Podkarpacie, it was +70%), 11 are 'Pislandian' powiats; if we consider powiats where this increase was greater than the national average, there were 235 such powiats, and 'Pislandia' in 2019 comprised as many as two-thirds of them.”
-- IT IS WORTH KNOWING WHO THE VOTERS ARE WHO SO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED THE NUMBER OF VOTES CAST FOR DEMOCRATS IN 'PISLANDIA' - MACHOWSKI FURTHER IN GW: “It is worth knowing who the voters are who so significantly increased the number of votes cast for Democrats in 'Pislandia.' Good, and therefore unfortunately expensive, research is needed here. But KO, Trzecia Droga, and Lewica have enough money within their subsidies to finance it. It is worth asking these voters about their motivations, value systems, views, and opinions. To see what their age is, their education level, their financial and professional status. To understand their expectations, fears, and hopes.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30472419,wybory-2023-jak-glosowaly-liberlandia-i-pislandia.html
-- PiS IS SINKING. DON'T EXTEND A HAND TO IT - MAREK BEYLIN IN GW: “I consider the suggestions coming from democratic circles to reach agreements on various matters with some PiS politicians to be nonsensical. Now, any such attempt at negotiation, any outstretched hand, would only strengthen this declining party. Please, if any PiS parliamentarians or local government officials wish to join the democratic camp to gain some virtue, they should first leave their party. We should aim for PiS to weaken further until it disintegrates. And this is a realistic scenario.”
-- BY RELYING, AS IT CURRENTLY DOES, SOLELY ON THE HARDEST ELECTORATE, IT IS PUSHING ITSELF TOWARDS ANOTHER DEFEAT - BEYLIN FURTHER: “PiS currently has no ideas for the local government election campaign. By relying, as it currently does, solely on the hardest electorate, it is pushing itself towards another defeat. In local elections, propaganda about a ruling conspiracy is even less effective than in parliamentary elections. And this party will not survive a double defeat.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30472424,pis-tonie-nie-wyciagac-do-niego-reki.html
-- PiS AFTER THE ELECTIONS: PRESIDENT ORDON'S REDOUBT - ERNEST SKALSKI IN GW: “In our case, the survival form Kaczyński needs might, and even should, be small. Only then will it be a handy tool. Kukiz's departure is a greater benefit than the loss of a few votes. If Ziobro leaves – again, as he did leave once before – it will be even better for PiS. Let a handful of the unyielding remain, with no chances without the leader. Accumulating mandates in the parliamentary minority camp doesn't matter. What matters is clarity and the strength of one's own voice.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30471731,pis-po-wyborach-reduta-prezesa-ordona.html
-- POLES, GUARD YOUR WALLETS, BECAUSE QUITE AN OUTFIT IS GOING FOR POWER. GUARD YOUR AFFAIRS, BECAUSE YOU MAY WAKE UP WITH A WIND TURBINE BEHIND YOUR FENCE - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “This is an outfit that is very weak both in terms of substance and PR. However, one issue was enough for them to find themselves on the defensive, and at the same time, they revealed how they will act during their rule. They sent a clear signal to everyone around: watch carefully, look after your own affairs, because you may soon wake up in a very unpleasant situation, for example, with a wind turbine behind your fence. As Donald Tusk would say: Poles, guard your wallets, because quite an outfit is going for power.”
-- WE NEED TO STEP UP, BECAUSE TIME IS SHORT. THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS ARE JUST OVER A DOZEN MONTHS AWAY - KARNOWSKI FURTHER: “Public media can be defended. And communication channels can be built through social media. PiS has always had – and still has – large reserves here. And it's already evident that they've made some moves. But we need to step up, because time is short. The presidential elections are just over a dozen months away.”
https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/673276-pilnujcie-swoich-portfeli-bo-niezla-ekipa-idzie-po-wladze
-- PEKAO ANALYSTS: FUND SENTIMENT TOWARDS POLAND POST-ELECTION VERY POSITIVE. POLAND ALSO APPEARS AS THE BEST INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY: https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/12/04/analitycy-pekao-nastawienie-funduszy-wzgledem-polski-po-wyborach-bardzo-pozytywne-polska-jawi-sie-rowniez-jako-najlepsza-okazja-inwestycyjna/
-- BIRTHDAYS: Wojciech Skurkiewicz, Olga Semeniuk.
live
84 min
87 min
„A Necessity for Poland's Security.” — Czarnek Calls for Czarzasty's Resignation
4 hours
„In My Opinion, Yes.” — Glapiński on Whether March is a Good Time for an Interest Rate Cut
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Glapiński: All Forecasts Indicate Inflation's Return to Target in Poland is Sustainable
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Glapiński: We Are the Leader in Disinflation
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