-- A YEAR AGO PROF. ANTONI DUDEK CONSIDERED THE FORMATION OF A "CORDON SANITAIRE GOVERNMENT" IN AUTUMN 2023 AS THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO IN LIGHT OF CURRENT POLLS AND OPPOSITION DISCUSSIONS – IN AN INTERVIEW WITH ONET: "In light of current polls and opposition discussions, the interviewee considers the formation of a 'cordon sanitaire government' in autumn 2023 to be the most probable scenario, where Civic Coalition (KO), Poland 2050 (running together with PSL), and The Left would 'surround' the largest party in the Sejm, PiS. This would be an unprecedented event in the history of the Third Polish Republic, as only immediately after the 1991 parliamentary elections did smaller parties form their government, bypassing the then-largest clubs in the Sejm: the Democratic Union and the Social Democracy of the Republic of Poland (SLD). However, the Onet interviewee emphasizes that this occurred under completely different circumstances (including the absence of an electoral threshold), and the government formed by Jan Olszewski in this way lasted only six months." -- IF PIS GAINS EVEN ONE MORE SEAT THAN KO, THE PRESIDENT WILL CERTAINLY ENTRUST THE MISSION OF FORMING A GOVERNMENT TO A POLITICIAN FROM THE UNITED RIGHT CAMP – PROF. ANTONI DUDEK SAID A YEAR AGO IN AN INTERVIEW WITH MACIEJ KAŁACH ON ONET: https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/nowe-sondaze-moga-zaniepokoic-pis-ten-kto-o-tym-powie-przegra-wybory/ybpl456 *** -- IT IS PAINFUL FOR PIS THAT IT EXPERIENCED DOUBLE-DIGIT DROPS IN SUPPORT IN ITS KEY EASTERN DISTRICTS, WHICH WERE SUPPOSED TO SECURE ITS VICTORY AND WHICH IT PARTICULARLY MOBILIZED IN THE FINAL WEEKS OF THE CAMPAIGN – ANALYSIS BY LESZEK KRASZYNA IN OKO.PRESS: "Nationally, PiS had 18.8% lower support than in 2019. It lost the most support in areas where it was already relatively weak – in metropolitan districts – and it seems this loss was factored into campaign costs. However, what is more painful for Law and Justice is the fact that it also experienced double-digit drops in support in its key eastern districts, which were supposed to secure its victory and which it particularly mobilized in the final weeks of the campaign. The entire narrative about the evil Tusk intending to give Eastern Poland to Russia was aimed at scaring voters from the east and driving them to the polls – at best, a moderate success was achieved. In 2019, there were 13 districts with over 50% support for PiS (including 3 with over 60%), while on October 15th, this number shrank to four: Jarosław Kaczyński's party achieved over 50% support in Krosno, Nowy Sącz, Rzeszów, and Chełm." -- THE CANDIDACY OF POLSKA JEST JEDNA (POLAND IS ONE) PROBABLY DEPRIVED PIS OF TWO SEATS – MONIKA PAWŁOWSKA IN CHEŁM AND ANNA PALUCH IN NOWY SĄCZ - KRASZYNA CONTINUES IN OKO: "An interesting point is the two districts where PiS's losses were the smallest. Krosno is one of two districts (along with Poznań) where there were no candidates from the Poland Is One committee on the ballot. This minor party achieved over 2% support in as many as 11 districts (over 4% in Nowy Sącz), and these districts – apart from Silesia – are strongly right-wing." -- WHERE TO FIND A MICROCOSM OF POLAND? - KRASZYNA STILL IN OKO: "In 2019, such a district was Obwarzanek [a term for a district configuration], followed by Bielsko, Elbląg, and Kalisz. Three of these districts were also among the top performers in 2023 – Elbląg was closest to the national result, followed by Częstochowa, and then a tie between Bielsko and Kalisz. Obwarzanek, undergoing rapid demographic changes, dropped to tenth place. In terms of counties, the smallest deviation was recorded in Chrzanów County, Ostrów County (Greater Poland), and Żnin County. Among cities: Ruda Śląska. Ostrów and Chrzanów counties also had the smallest deviations four years ago (the smallest then was Bytów, which is also quite close to the national result now)." https://oko.press/gdzie-stracil-pis-gdzie-zyskala-ko-wracamy-do-wyniku-wyborow -- DUDA HAS NO INTENTION OF DYING ON THE ALTAR OF LOST CAUSES – RAFAŁ KALUKIN IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: "His recent declaration that Duda has no objections to refunds for in vitro fertilization – although he was previously against it – may now suggest that he has no intention of dying on the altar of lost causes, and that even in difficult situations, one can reach an agreement with him." -- HE PRACTICALLY INVITES HIMSELF TO BE OUTPLAYED ONCE AGAIN. TWO YEARS IS A LOT OF TIME – KALUKIN CONTINUES: "Of course, it may be different in the future, as he is not a consistent and fully predictable figure, as Kaczyński has already experienced. Although from Tusk's perspective, the current president seems like an almost ideal opponent in many respects. Because he lacks strategic sense, has no strong support from his camp, is susceptible to external influences, is vain and craves recognition, and finally, possesses a fickle enthusiasm, with a tendency to withdraw and seek peace. He practically invites himself to be outplayed thoroughly once again. Two years is a lot of time." -- MAINLY, HE MIMICS THE GAME INSTEAD OF PLAYING IT. HE HINTS AT THINGS BUT DOESN'T DOT THE I'S – KALUKIN WRITES IN POLITYKA: "Mainly, he mimics the game instead of playing it. He hints at things but doesn't dot the i's. It would probably be best to satisfy both sides of the dispute, but that is impossible. Nevertheless, the media whimperings of Duda's palace associates are astonishing, as they already seem to be trembling at the thought that Tusk is preparing a 'contempt industry' for them, as he did for Lech Kaczyński once. Well, they should have thought about that earlier, before the decision was made for the comedy with Morawiecki seeking a majority and threatening vetoes. Because there is no doubt that the key to the president's relationship with the future prime minister was held by Andrzej Duda after October 15th. He should therefore be aware that by digging up the hatchet, he is pushing himself to the front line, as it was difficult to assume that Tusk would simply overlook the prospect of him vetoing laws and humbly accept the role of a supplicant." https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2236612,1,nieporadny-spektakl-dudy-sam-sie-prosi-zeby-go-kolejny-raz-porzadnie-rozegrac -- AFTER EIGHT YEARS OF PIS RULE AND TWO SEJM TERMS, MORAWIECKI HAS CONCLUDED THAT THE PARLIAMENT SHOULD BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY – ARTUR BARTKIEWICZ IN RP: "Instead of a democratic package, there was the silencing of opposition MPs, 30 seconds per speech, rejection of opposition amendments in single votes, in packages, reversals of lost votes, and a 'sejm chill' instead of a freezer. For eight years, PiS did a lot to turn the Sejm into a machine for pushing through government projects – even initiatives from PiS MPs were often government initiatives, submitted by MPs solely to bypass the consultation stage. The Sejm was meant – to quote a classic – to 'support, not hinder.' And if necessary, to pass a law in 24 hours. And if the laws enacted in this way were not perfect? They would be amended – in a similar manner. While PiS had a majority in it, the Sejm was meant – to quote a classic – to 'support, not hinder.'" https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art39488271-artur-bartkiewicz-o-czym-zapomnial-mateusz-morawiecki -- THE QUESTION ARISES, WHY WASN'T MENTZEN SO DECISIVE WHEN JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI'S PARTY WAS IN POWER? - JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RP: "Mentzen needs to recover from his slump. And that's what he's doing. His parliamentary speech is an attempt to redefine Konfederacja and rebuild Mentzen's position. PiS won't give him anything anymore. Konfederacja's influence is also weakening on its own. It's time to change fronts. (...) But Mentzen's speech also showed something else. He signaled that he is ready to participate in the dismemberment of PiS." https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art39487761-jacek-nizinkiewicz-dlaczego-slawomir-mentzen-atakuje-pis-i-czy-przez-to-konfederacja-sie-odbuduje -- MORE THAN 52% DO NOT WANT THE GOVERNMENT TO ACCEPT THE PROPOSAL FOR CHANGES TO THE TREATIES OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, WHICH INCLUDE, AMONG OTHERS, ABANDONING THE PRINCIPLE OF UNANIMITY – POLL FOR RMF AND DGP: https://www.rmf24.pl/polityka/news-ponad-52-proc-polakow-nie-chce-zmian-w-unijnych-traktatach-s,nId,7179232 -- SZŁAPKA ON EU TREATIES: THERE WILL BE NO FRICTION IN THE COALITION ON THIS MATTER – 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/11/30/ -- DISPUTE OVER TREATY CHANGES. TUSK IS RIGHT: LET'S INTEGRATE THE EU, BUT WISELY – EUGENIUSZ SMOLAR IN GW: "The new government will certainly participate in it, and no one in the EU currently has greater credibility than Donald Tusk, who has just been declared the most influential politician in Europe by Politico. Macron, who is decidedly pro-EU, is perceived as 'too French' and unpredictable. Meloni has reconciled with the EU but heads a weak government, and her political past and participation in a European bloc of nationalist right-wing groups raise distrust. Sánchez formed a government thanks to an agreement with the Catalans, which is causing mass demonstrations. Rutte has left, and Timmermans did not win. Scholz invests less in the EU and in relations with France, managing an internally conflicted government, a weakened economy, and serious budgetary problems. Thus, despite the vote in the European Parliament, the EU will listen to Tusk. Not only because of his achievements as a decidedly pro-EU, highly regarded President of the European Council, but especially because he has credibility as a representative of Poland, which resisted the wave of sovereigntism. As a realistic optimist, I support deepening European integration, but... wisely." https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30456799,spor-o-zmiane-traktatow-tusk-ma-racje-integrujmy-ue-ale-z.html -- THE OPPOSITION WANTED POLAND TO REMAIN WITHOUT A PRESIDENT, HOPING THAT THIS WOULD CAUSE CHAOS THAT WOULD TOPPLE THE PIS GOVERNMENT AND GIVE THEM POWER QUICKLY. THE ATTEMPT TO ORGANIZE POSTAL VOTING MUST BE READ IN THE FULL CONTEXT OF THE SITUATION – JACEK KARNOWSKI: "The opposition wanted Poland to remain without a president, hoping that it would cause chaos that would topple the PiS government and give them power quickly. This should resonate during the committee's work. Because that is the essence of the matter. The attempt to organize postal voting must be read in the full context of the situation. Given the brutality of the opposition, the numerous uncertainties related to the dangerous pandemic, and the need to consider the darkest scenarios related to COVID – it was a fully justified attempt. The people who undertook it should receive medals, not be dragged before an investigative committee composed of formations that, at that moment of trial, applied the principle: 'the worse, the better.'" https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/672652-wybory-korespondencyjne-byly-proba-ratowania-demokracji -- DEPUTIES OF DEMOCRATIC PARTIES MUST DRAW CONCLUSIONS FROM THE EXPERIENCES OF THE POST-2007 TERM. THE COMMITTEE'S WORK MUST BE WELL-PLANNED, FOR A SPECIFIC, AS SHORT AS POSSIBLE PERIOD, AND CONCLUDE – AS FAR AS POSSIBLE – WITH UNAMBIGUOUS CONCLUSIONS – ŁUKASZ LIPIŃSKI IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: "Deputies of democratic parties must draw conclusions from the experiences of the post-2007 term. The committee's work must be well-planned, for a specific, as short as possible period. It should be conducted efficiently, clearly show the pathologies of PiS rule, and conclude – as far as possible – with unambiguous conclusions. Prolonging them, allowing the committee to be trolled, or allowing PiS to blur the scandals would end up like the attempts to settle accounts from the post-2007 term. And over time, other elements mentioned at the beginning of the text must be added to the investigative committees, i.e., effective proceedings before the Tribunal of State (where possible) and prosecutorial investigations – investigative committees alone will not be enough. Otherwise, everything will come to naught again. And perhaps it will end with opening the way for another return to power of the nationalist, authoritarian right – under the banner of PiS or a new one." https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2236814,1,czas-rozliczyc-pis-czy-komisje-sledcze-sobie-poradza-trzeba-uniknac-bledow-z-przeszlosci.read -- BIRTHDAYS: Tomasz Rożek, Jacek Gdański.