state of play: 11/23/2023

STATE OF PLAY: Prokop on Hołownia: Szymon is perfectly at home in this game and is just beginning his march to the top, Dąbrowska: Return to parliamentary politics, Karnowski: Glapiński an obstacle to introducing the euro

Łukasz Mężyk

-- 90TH BIRTH ANNIVERSARY OF KRZYSZTOF PENDERECKI. -- ANNE SOPHIE MUTTER IN WARSAW: "The undisputed queen of the violin," as the British "The Times" called her, will perform in Warsaw on Thursday. Anne Sophie Mutter will play, among others, Krzysztof Penderecki's 40-minute Violin Concerto No. 2 Metamorphoses at the festival named after this composer. She will also play Witold Lutosławski, who gifted her a piece for her wedding, about which she said: “How very shy and uncertain Witold was when I unwrapped his gift. It was a lullaby, he wrote it for me, probably remembering how many times I complained of insomnia. He titled it: ‘When you can't sleep, read this.’ ” https://mintmagazine.pl/ -- 16 YEARS AGO, Donald Tusk delivered the longest exposé in the history of the Third Republic in the Sejm. -- HENNIG-KLOSKA: POLSKA 2050 IS INTERESTED IN CLIMATE, ENVIRONMENT, AND THE MINISTRY OF EU FUNDS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/11/23/ -- THERE WILL BE MORE WOMEN – ASSURES OKO.PRESS, A POLITICIAN FAMILIAR WITH GOVERNMENT ARRANGEMENTS - AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK: "There will be more women," assures OKO.press, a politician familiar with government arrangements. How many more? Which positions will they occupy? Politicians of the new majority are not yet willing to reveal this. Incidentally, another politician speaks of further women in the government with less conviction: "Those four names that are appearing, that would be it. Maybe one more person, that's all." "The final decisions regarding the government should be made on Wednesday," a well-informed politician tells us. Another interlocutor familiar with the behind-the-scenes discussions says: "Ministries and their heads – we have this basically divided. Now it's time for secretaries and undersecretaries of state and the division of positions in the voivodeships." -- KRASOŃ FOR MATTERS OF PERSONS WITH DISABILITIES: "Lewica would take over one of the additional economic ministries. The question is whether such a ministry can be created. The act on departments of state administration imposes restrictions on the creation of new ministries. The coalition partners, at least in the first stage, want to create only those ministries that will not require the president's approval of changes to this act. This is the case of the Ministry of Science, which was abolished by PiS by decree and attached to the Ministry of Education. Other information: it is very likely that Łukasz Krasoń from Polski 2050 will become the plenipotentiary for persons with disabilities at the rank of minister in the government." https://oko.press/zrodlo-oko-press-dzis-liderzy-ustala-ostateczny-sklad-rzadu-tuska -- THE DEBATE ON THE CITIZEN'S PROJECT FOR FINANCING IN VITRO IS, HOWEVER, PRIMARILY A RETURN TO PARLIAMENTARY POLITICS, WHERE WORDS HAVE WEIGHT, WHICH TAKES INTO ACCOUNT CITIZEN PROJECTS - ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA IN RZ: "The parliamentary debate on the citizen's project for financing in vitro is, however, primarily a return to parliamentary politics, where words have weight, which takes into account citizen projects, and which is created before people's eyes. MPs' speeches lasted longer than 30 seconds, and the final outcome of the work on specific solutions is not yet decided. It looked completely different over the last eight years." https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art39450011-zuzanna-dabrowska-sejm-przywraca-refundacje-in-vitro-pis-nie-wie-co-myslec -- JUST AS ANDRZEJ DUDA'S VETO CANNOT JUSTIFY INACTIVITY ON ABORTION, SO THE RESISTANCE OF THE MOST CONSERVATIVE POLITICIANS OF THE GOVERNING COALITION MUST BE A CHALLENGE FOR TUSK, NOT AN EXCUSE - MICHAŁ SUTOWSKI IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: "And the Prime Minister will have serious tools of persuasion at his disposal, with a whole basket of tasty carrots, or possibly fruits – he must not shift the duty of exerting pressure onto the shoulders of citizens, so that they have to demand the same thing on the streets again. Just as Andrzej Duda's veto cannot justify inactivity, so the resistance of the most conservative politicians of the governing coalition must be a challenge for Tusk, not an excuse. Because if a right-wing candidate – perhaps an extremist – wins the presidency, it will be the most politically costly excuse in the world." -- WHY SHOULD A FEW – OR PERHAPS A DOZEN – PERCENT OF VOTERS BOTHER TO GO TO THE POLLS AT ALL, IF IN AN ISSUE IMPORTANT TO THEM, A NEW PRESIDENCY WILL CHANGE NOTHING? - SUTOWSKI CONTINUES: "As the presidential elections approach, Andrzej Duda's presidency will become an increasingly costly alibi for inaction on this matter. Why should a few – or perhaps a dozen – percent of voters bother to go to the polls at all, if in an issue important to them, a new presidency will change nothing? Since the president of the ruling camp from 2023 will not want to sign the liberalization of the law anyway, and even if he wants to, he won't have anything to sign, because until the next elections, the parliamentary majority itself will not be willing to ensure them basic rights?" -- IF THEIR HOPES IN THIS AREA ARE DASHED, THEY WILL MOST LIKELY STAY HOME, LEAVING THE FIELD TO THEIR YOUNGER COLLEAGUES, WHO MORE OFTEN VOTE FOR THE FAR-RIGHT, AND GRANDPARENTS - WRITES SUTOWSKI IN KRYTYKA: "These, especially those whose votes the opposition will need most in 2025 (let's leave aside local and European elections, as they are a bit different), were most willing to take to the streets regarding abortion, support it most in declarations, and at the same time have the least developed habits of going to the polls. If their hopes in this area are dashed, they will most likely stay home, leaving the field to their younger colleagues, who more often vote for the far-right, and grandparents, who usually vote for PiS. And if this happens, the demographic annuity for the opposition in the 2025 elections will be lost – and with it the hopes that the views of the young will finally translate into law (and incidentally, justice, not to mention simple decency)." https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/najpierw-aborcja-potem-prezydentura-jak-przejsc-od-jednego-do-drugiego/ -- THE AIM OF THE ATTACK ON THE NBP IS TO REMOVE THE "BLOCKADE" WHICH PREVENTS THE RAPID, ALMOST IMMEDIATE, AND EXTREMELY UNFAVORABLE INTRODUCTION OF THE EURO FOR THE POLISH ECONOMY - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: "Firstly, it could lead to the collapse of the zloty and very bad consequences for the Polish economy. Stock exchanges, markets, and global financial institutions will not accept this kind of political banditry towards independent financial institutions. Is that the goal? To collapse the Polish currency and economy? Since the "budget hole" they were so joyfully looking for was not found, since experts scoffed at it, it was decided that this is how a new shock therapy would be introduced, that this is how Poles would be pushed into poverty? Secondly, the aim of the attack on the NBP is to remove the "blockade" which prevents the rapid, almost immediate, and extremely unfavorable introduction of the euro for the Polish economy. Undoubtedly, Germany is pressuring Tusk in this matter (...). Thirdly, immediately after the introduction of the euro, the record gold reserves of Poland, whose resources have radically increased under Professor Glapiński's presidency, would be transferred to Frankfurt, the headquarters of the European Central Bank." https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/671760-niemcy-chca-zagrabic-polskie-zloto -- HE HAS A CHANCE TO MAKE THIRD WAY A TRUE THIRD FORCE - PIOTR ŚMIŁOWICZ AND MAREK KĘSKRAWIEC IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: "Szymon Hołownia is the first Marshal of the Sejm from outside PiS and PO in 18 years. He has a chance to make Third Way a true third force. He is not a politician, after all." -- THE FIRST SIGN OF THE DUOPOLY'S DEATH WILL BE A SITUATION WHERE, IN THE SECOND ROUND OF PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, CANDIDATES FROM PIS AND PO WILL NOT MEET AGAIN - SAYS PROF. ANTONI DUDEK, QUOTED IN THE TEXT BY ŚMIŁOWICZ AND KĘSKRAWIEC: "According to Prof. Antoni Dudek, the test will be the presidential elections in 2025. The first sign of the duopoly's death will be a situation where, in the second round of presidential elections, candidates from PiS and PO will not meet again, as has been the case since 2005. Hołownia has a chance, but it would have to come at the expense of Rafał Trzaskowski, who will likely be PO's candidate and who has an advantage in polls," says Dudek. In his opinion, the condition for the Marshal of the Sejm's success is to show that Third Way is different from PO. Otherwise, the process of vassalization will occur, as was the case with Nowoczesna. It might be easier for Hołownia due to his prestigious position, but only if he can demonstrate distinctiveness in a way that doesn't break the coalition." -- YOU HAVE A CHANCE TO BE AN INTERMEDIARY BETWEEN THE FEUDING PARTIES, WHICH WILL BE WAGING TOTAL WAR – PROF. DUDEK SUMS UP: " – I would tell him today: 'Mr. Marshal, you have a huge challenge ahead of you, because the most turbulent cohabitation in the history of the Third Republic is beginning, even fiercer than that of Lech Kaczyński and Donald Tusk. You have a chance to be an intermediary between the feuding parties, which will be waging total war' – Prof. Dudek sums up." -- HIS STORY IS A HOLLYWOOD READY-MADE STORY – SAYS MARCIN PROKOP IN THE WEEKLY'S TEXT: "– His story is a Hollywood ready-made story – adds Prokop, recalling the beginnings of their cooperation. – A citizen, increasingly angry at reality, decides to set things right so that his daughters can live better. An amateur, ridiculed and underestimated, enters the ring to fight an unequal battle with professionals, who often also foul. He takes risks, putting his comfortable life at stake, and miraculously wins, falling into the arms of his supportive wife, who also happens to be a military fighter pilot. It's better than a combination of 'Rocky,' 'Gladiator,' and 'Top Gun.' -- SIMON, TRAINED BY TELEVISION EXPERIENCE, IS PERFECTLY AT HOME IN THIS GAME AND IS JUST BEGINNING HIS MARCH TO THE TOP - PROKOP CONTINUES ABOUT HOŁOWNIA: "Marcin Prokop believes that this is just the beginning of an acceleration in Hołownia's career. – Politics is not so different from show business. In both fields, it's about triggering mass emotions. Simon, trained by television experience, is perfectly at home in this game and is just beginning his march to the top. If he doesn't make any glaring mistakes, I predict a presidency for him, and then an international career. I've known him for over 25 years, and I know he has all the qualities to achieve this: he's hardworking, determined, stubborn, clever, and intelligent. He's fresh blood in the tired games, so I'm grabbing popcorn and sitting in front of the TV." -- HE HAS BEEN CONDUCTING PROJECTS WITH GREAT CONSISTENCY. HE SEEMS TO HAVE MATURED - WRITE ŚMIŁOWICZ AND KĘSKRAWIEC: "Hołownia had a period when he jumped from one thing to another. First a would-be Dominican, then a would-be psychologist, then a journalist changing editorial offices like gloves. However, he later conducted both charitable and political projects with great consistency. It seems he has matured." https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/szymon-holownia-marszalek-ktory-nie-jest-politykiem-185422 -- POLAND'S BRAKE IN EUROPE - JACEK ŻAKOWSKI IN GW: "I believe that Donald Tusk, who has a strong position in Brussels, will convince EU leaders behind the scenes that his decision is a temporary result of domestic tactics, because PiS wants to use treaty changes as fuel for next year's local and European elections. (...) The most dangerous aspect of such a braking tactic, however, is that with Poland's participation, the front of resistance against improving the Union could be permanently effective. And freezing the Union in its current institutional corset will radically reduce the probability that it will be possible – not only in Ukraine – to stop Russia's advance to the West, that Europe will not lose the strategic competition with China, that Brussels will cope with the migration crisis in the spirit of European values, that it will meet climate and technological challenges, and that integration will at least maintain citizen support." https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30432867,po-przeciw-zmianom-w-traktatach-ue-polski-hamulec-w-europie.html -- SUPERSTATE? THE EU IS MORE THREATENED BY DISINTEGRATION - JĘDRZEJ BIELECKI IN RZ: "The Dutch are much more interested in cutting themselves off from emigration and preserving social safety nets than in building a European superstate. But polls also indicate a victory for Marine Le Pen in the next presidential elections in France. In Belgium, within a few months, far-right parties, which already rule in Italy, will take absolute majority in Flanders. In Germany, on the other hand, the government, which has inscribed the construction of a "federal" EU in its coalition agreement, is scraping the bottom in the polls." https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art39449201-jedrzej-bielecki-superpanstwo-unii-bardziej-grozi-dezintegracja -- THE UTOPIA OF A EUROPEAN SUPERSTATE PROBABLY HAS TO WAIT, BE INTRODUCED MORE GENTLY, SLOWER, THROUGH THE BACK DOOR. THIS ATTEMPT WAS TOO HAM-FISTED. EVEN FORMER ALLIES ARE TURNING AWAY FROM IT - WIKTOR ŚWIETLIK IN INTERIA: "Today too, an ambitious geopolitical and social project is encountering resistance from people who have simply not grown up to it. The PiS supporters are shouting against the European Parliament declaring a "declaration of will" to abandon the principle of unanimity, as always, but politicians from Civic Platform have also started to speak out. Similarly, in other countries – other than Germany, France, and the Benelux countries, which always vote like Germany, only more so – the new idea is not met with enthusiasm." https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-nowa-wspaniala-europa-musi-poczekac,nId,7164604 -- I CONSIDER THE "EXPLANATION" OF THE LEFT-WING MP TO BE COMPLETELY IRRESPONSIBLE, IMMATURE, AND UNREASONABLE. THE "GRANDCHILD METHOD" IS SOMEWHAT EMBARRASSING - GRZEGORZ WYSOCKI IN GAZETA.PL: "And although we are currently in a dangerously ironic feuilleton space, I am not joking here at all. On the contrary: I consider the "explanation" of the left-wing MP to be completely irresponsible, immature, and unreasonable. The "grandchild method" may be effective during burglaries of elderly people's homes, but it appears somewhat embarrassing when it concerns an adult politician, elected to the Sejm by thousands of Poles (or more precisely: by 40579 Poles). Poles – let's add – who are rather left-leaning and do not necessarily expect their "own" parliamentarians to invoke God." -- THE FACT IS THAT NONE OF THE LEADERS OF THE SECOND REPUBLIC ALLOWED THE HIERARCHS TO WALK ALL OVER THEM LIKE THE POLITICAL LEADERS OF THE THIRD REPUBLIC - WYSOCKI CONTINUES IN GAZETA.PL: "It is a fact, however, that none of the leaders of the Second Republic allowed the hierarchs to walk all over them like the political leaders of the Third Republic. There is also likely a group of MPs who have so little faith in themselves, in their moral standards and willpower, that they need divine support to "diligently and conscientiously perform duties for the Nation." Some need this support to perform any duties at all." -- I TRULY HOPE THAT MP LITWKA DID NOT PROMISE HIS MOM, DAD, OR GRANDMA A COMPLETE BAN ON ABORTION, OPPOSITION TO PARTNERSHIP ASSOCIATIONS, AND THE LIQUIDATION OF ALL SOCIAL TRANSFERS - WRITES WYSOCKI FURTHER IN GAZETA.PL: "I really don't want to pick on MP Litewka, and I leave the above excerpts to the readers for consideration and personal resolution. MP Litewka has the right to believe in God, he has the right to profess his faith publicly with MPs from PiS or Konfederacja, he has the right to stand out in such an original way in the Lewica club, and finally, he has the right to love his grandfather immensely, and between the two (Środa-Lisicki) he can choose the chief publicist-spiritual guide of "Do Rzeczy." Who knows, maybe MP Litewka also believes that there is no Poland and patriotism without God, and that women should primarily engage in maintaining Christian cult? I sincerely hope that MP Litewka did not promise his mom, dad, or grandma a complete ban on abortion, opposition to partnership associations, and the liquidation of all social transfers." https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,30433721,posel-lewicy-obiecal-dziadkowi-slubowanie-na-boga-sejmowa-wersja.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Lena Dąbkowska-Cichocka, Sławomir Starzec.

Łukasz Mężyk