state of play: 11/22/2023
POLITICAL GAME: Radziwiłłowicz: Unfortunately, Western politicians' clocks still show 'half past five' when it should be five to twelve; Janicki: PiS is building a myth of a lost decade; Karnowski: Listen, they're really losing it!
-- MOSCOW TRIUMPHS, THE WEST HESITATES. HOW WILL THE WAR IN UKRAINE UNFOLD? - WACŁAW RADZIWINOWICZ IN GW: “The mood in Moscow is increasingly triumphant. They are already setting a very near date for total victory. But it is not Ukraine that faces defeat – it is we, the West, that are threatened by a disgraceful loss.”
-- UNTIL MARCH 17TH, HE CAN REGULARLY CONDUCT MASS DESTRUCTIVE SHELLS EVERY WEEK (DOING IT MORE OFTEN MAKES NO SENSE) - RADZIWINOWICZ FURTHER IN GW: “Putin cannot and should not rush his winter offensive – because it would be risky. And he doesn't have to. He has accumulated over 900 cruise missiles today. By March 17th, he can regularly conduct mass destructive shells on Ukraine every week (doing it more often makes no sense), proving that he is constantly achieving military successes.”
-- AND AFTER THE ELECTIONS, WITHOUT REGARD FOR PUBLIC SENTIMENT, HE WILL ANNOUNCE GENERAL MOBILIZATION, CALLING UP EVEN A MILLION RESERVISTS - WRITES RADZIWINOWICZ IN GW: “And after the elections, without regard for public sentiment, he will announce general mobilization, call up even a million reservists, equip them with the hardware that the increasingly booming Russian arms industry produces today. And then, certain of his victory, he can move forward to win.”
-- UNFORTUNATELY, WESTERN POLITICIANS' CLOCKS STILL SHOW 'HALF PAST FIVE' WHEN IT SHOULD BE FIVE TO TWELVE - RADZIWINOWICZ'S CONCLUSION IN GW: “Unfortunately, Western politicians' clocks still show 'half past five' when it should be five to twelve. They are dreaming of peace talks with Putin. They don't understand that for him, peace will only be acceptable as it was in the beloved year 1945 – after the enemy's unconditional surrender. They don't understand that this is their own war today. Because after Ukraine's defeat, which Putin desires, what will our wonderful democratic world, with a population six times larger than Russia and an economy 24 times stronger than Russia's, become?”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75399,30424091,przegrywamy-nasza-wojne.html
-- MASTALEREK ON TUSK RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT: HE IS SERIOUSLY CONSIDERING IT IN AT LEAST ONE SCENARIO, MENTZEN: SASIN AND ZIOBRO SHOULD STAND TRIAL - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/11/22/
-- LAW AND JUSTICE MAY CHANGE ITS NAME - GAZETA.PL HAS ESTABLISHED. TALKS ARE ALREADY UNDERWAY AT NOWOGRODZKA STREET - JACEK GĄDEK: “According to Gazeta.pl's information, at a closed meeting of PiS leadership, Jarosław Kaczyński did not rule out changing the party's name from Law and Justice to something else if it becomes necessary and could help the right-wing camp in future elections. The topic is present at Nowogrodzka Street. Especially since elections are approaching: first, local government elections will be held in the spring of 2024, and most likely in June 2024, elections to the European Parliament. Mid-2025 will see presidential elections. (...) The decision regarding the name of Jarosław Kaczyński's party is expected not in days, but in a few months. The name change would serve not to dismantle the project, but as an attempt to revive it. What the new name would be is an open question. How to make it credible is also an open question.”
https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,30429703,pis-moze-zniknac-by-sie-odrodzic-wiemy-co-kaczynski-mowil.html
-- A MYTH OF A LOST DECADE IS BEING BUILT, WHEN PROSPERITY GREW, SOCIAL BENEFITS INCREASED, UNEMPLOYMENT DECREASED, THE STATE GREW STRONGER AND ARMED ITSELF, DEFENDED ITSELF AGAINST MIGRANTS, EVERYTHING WAS GOING PERFECTLY - MARIUSZ JANICKI IN THIS WEEK'S EDITION OF TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “With every move of the new government in these matters, there will be a great outcry, likely picked up by some non-PiS commentators, because it has always been this way. Commissioned polls are meant to show that Poles want a continuation of PiS's 'great programs,' and there has been significant media lobbying for CPK recently. A sense of loss will be generated, which is not being compensated by the new government in other areas. A myth of a lost decade is being built, when prosperity grew, social benefits increased, unemployment decreased, the state grew stronger and armed itself, defended itself against migrants, and everything was going perfectly. This is how Morawiecki will present it, and something from this narrative will likely remain. This places demands on the new authorities to present an impressive, comprehensive counter-vision, not just the 'reaction to current events' known from the past.”
-- IF TUSK AGAIN SAVES ON THE DEFENSE OF DEMOCRACY, THEN KACZYŃSKI WILL AGAIN USE THESE FUNDS TO COVER UP THE COMPLETION OF THE JUDICIARY "REFORM" - FURTHERMORE, THE FIRST DEPUTY EDITOR-IN-CHIEF OF TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “Other advice is also heard: that there is no money, spending must be stopped, the new government must make expenses realistic, recalculate the budget, not follow PiS's path, and even privatize Orlen. This is exactly the same tune as in 2014 and 2015 – people cannot be given money, a fishing rod instead of a fish, 500+ is ruin for state finances, the European Union will not agree, creditors will curse us, etc. After which PiS came, paid out the money that the Civic Platform had accumulated, and bought social support for a unconstitutional change of system. It is true that anti-social tendencies appeared among voters during the election campaign, but it would be a mistake to overestimate them, as evidenced by the final result of Konfederacja. If Tusk again saves on the defense of democracy, then Kaczyński will again use these funds to cover up the completion of the judiciary 'reform'.”
-- MUCH INDICATES THAT TUSK WILL FACE MORE CRITICISM THAN KACZYŃSKI AND MORAWIECKI. PIS STILL ENJOYS A SPECIAL, LENIENT TARIFF, ON THE PRINCIPLE THAT "WE KNOW WHAT HE IS LIKE," AND NOT MUCH SHOULD BE EXPECTED FROM THIS PARTY - JANICKI WRITES FURTHER: “Indeed, much indicates that Tusk will face more criticism than Kaczyński and Morawiecki. PiS still benefits from a special, lenient tariff, on the principle that 'we know what he is like,' and not much should be expected from this party. But the Civic Platform are ordinary democrats, as they claim, who can finally be subjected to normal, by-the-book criticism, without any discounts. As a result, defenders of liberal democracy will have much worse press than those who dismantled it. All this within the framework of objectivity and equal distance. And the Morawiecki team, which is to monitor the government's actions, the fulfillment of promises, and the situation in the coalition, will provide materials. The media will certainly use such 'ready-made' content. It can be assumed that whatever Tusk does or does not do as prime minister, he will be attacked similarly. The new government is entering a zone of bombardment, and PiS is counting on the old, good slogan of the symmetrists: 'Can't we criticize the Civic Platform anymore?'”
-- THIS IS WHAT PIS IS COUNTING ON MOST – A LOW RESULT FOR THE SECOND-PLACE CANDIDATE, BECAUSE PRACTICE SHOWS THAT IT IS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO JUMP FROM 20-25% IN THE FIRST ROUND TO 51% IN THE SECOND - FURTHERMORE, JANICKI IN POLITYKA: “This is what PiS is counting on most – a low result for the second-place candidate, because practice shows that it is extremely difficult to jump from 20-25% in the first round to 51% in the second. And PiS's candidate's repeated victory in the presidential elections will clip the wings of Tusk's coalition and ultimately kill the chance for a comprehensive reform of the state, with the help of laws. And then the 'coalition of Polish affairs' will enter. The democratic camp has about fifteen months to politically prepare for the presidential election and thwart these plans of Kaczyński's party. These will be elections of comparable importance to those of October 15th.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2235724,1,pis-sie-nie-skonczyl-szykuje-sie-do-odwetu-juz-widac-rysujaca-sie-strategie.read
-- AND SO TUSK WILL GO DOWN IN HISTORY AS THE ONE WHO WILL RELEASE THESE FUNDS, WHILE WE WILL REMEMBER MORAWIECKI AS THE ONE WHO MISSED OUT ON THEM - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “And if Tusk manages to actually achieve the goals related to restoring the rule of law, he will be able to enjoy the entire sum of almost 60 billion euros (over a quarter of a trillion zlotys). And then he will also gain political benefits from the fact that these funds will start working for the Polish economy, which was not possible for Mateusz Morawiecki, who negotiated the KPO, but due to the stubbornness of Zbigniew Ziobro and President Andrzej Duda, who scuttled two subsequent compromises with Brussels, the funds remained frozen for him. And so Tusk will go down in history as the one who will release these funds, while we will remember Morawiecki as the one who missed out on them, which was one of the reasons why PiS had to give up power.”
https://www.rp.pl/publicystyka/art39445511-michal-szuldrzynski-jak-mateusz-morawiecki-przygotowal-donaldowi-tuskowi-sukces-w-sprawie-kpo
-- LISTEN, THEY'RE REALLY LOSING IT! AND IT'S GOOD THAT PRESIDENT ANDRZEJ DUDA IS SAFEGUARDING THE STATE AND COMMON SENSE DURING THIS DIFFICULT TIME - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “This is the honeymoon period for the new parliamentary majority, which has so far elected the leaders of the Sejm and Senate, and will soon perhaps form a government. This is a time when Marshal Szymon Hołownia can show how effective celebrities, who are perfectly comfortable in front of the camera, are produced by TVN television. The media, political, and business support network of Tusk and his associates are sharpening the knives of revenge. The show is on, and no one is even considering that perhaps it would be worth ending the campaign of emotions and starting to be guided by the interests of the state. Voters can do little at this moment, regardless of how irresponsible the decisions of the future rulers are, how much they will put fundamental state interests at risk, how much they want to tighten the screws on Poles.”
-- THAT IS WHY THEY HAVE ALREADY STARTED THE ATTACK ON THE PRESIDENT. SO THAT NO ONE CHECKS THEM, ASKS THEM ANYTHING - KARNOWSKI FURTHER: “At the concrete level, the head of state is posing natural and tough questions to the possible new majority about issues crucial for the state – the economy, social matters, security. For 90 percent of these questions, the governing majority, as the president emphasizes in the interview, is very inconsistent and has no answers. And some are hidden, terrifying in their essence, aimed at submitting Poland to external forces, at halting development. That is why they have already started the attack on the president. So that no one checks them, asks them anything. That is why it is good that Andrzej Duda is safeguarding our state and common sense during this difficult time.”
https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/671380-sluchajcie-im-naprawde-odbija
-- COPPER AND SILVER PRODUCTION IN THE KGHM GROUP WAS REALIZED AT OR ABOVE THE LEVELS ASSUMED IN THE 2023 BUDGET - MATEUSZ WODEJKO, VICE-PRESIDENT OF THE MANAGEMENT BOARD FOR FINANCE AT KGHM, IN STREFA INWESTORÓW: “In the period under review, copper and silver production in the KGHM Group was realized at or above the levels assumed in the 2023 budget. Regarding operational and financial results, they are at a good level compared to the corresponding period of last year, which was characterized by a different economic base. This is primarily the result of optimization initiatives and cost discipline undertaken by the management board.”
-- THE SMR NUCLEAR PROJECT, CURRENTLY BEING CARRIED OUT BY KGHM POLSKA MIEDŹ S.A. INDEPENDENTLY OF ANY TECHNOLOGY SUPPLIER AND WITHOUT EXCLUSIVITY CLAUSES - FURTHERMORE, WODEJKO IN STREFA INWESTORÓW: “KGHM Polska Miedź S.A., taking into account the guidelines of the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna and the NEA OECD Nuclear Energy Agency in Paris, intends to select the best reactor technology for its SMR project (in economic, environmental, and safety terms) in accordance with the best global standards, while maintaining principles of transparency and competitiveness. Consequently, the completion of the VOYGR-6™ nuclear power plant construction project, being implemented in the United States as part of the Carbon Free Power Project, does not have a decisive impact on the SMR nuclear project, currently being carried out by KGHM Polska Miedź S.A. independently of any technology supplier and without exclusivity clauses. The preliminary work agreement concluded with NuScale Power, LLC on February 14, 2022, enabled the Company to access the technical data of the technology supplier necessary, among other things, to initiate the process of selecting the target reactor technology.”
https://strefainwestorow.pl/artykuly/czaty-inwestorskie/20231117/kghm-wyniki-iii-kwartal-czat
-- BIRTHDAYS: Waldemar Kuczyński, Tomasz Gruszecki, Barbara Czaplicka, Małgorzata Gersdorf, Filip Kaczmarek, Norbert Obrycki.
live
83 min
11 min
Wawer: If PiS Politicians Say Marshal Czarzasty Should Be Recalled Because the US Ambassador Dislikes Him – That's Not a Serious Approach to Governing
79 min
„Shame on the MPs Who Elevated Him to Second Highest Office.” — Bryłka on Czarzasty
3 hours
Kierwiński: We respect alliances. We do not forget honor, pride, and sovereignty
3 hours
„A Necessity for Poland's Security.” — Czarnek Calls for Czarzasty's Resignation
5 hours
„In My Opinion, Yes.” — Glapiński on Whether March is a Good Time for an Interest Rate Cut
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Glapiński: All Forecasts Indicate Inflation's Return to Target in Poland is Sustainable
5 hours
Glapiński: We Are the Leader in Disinflation
6 hours
„Led to Positive Changes in Historical Polish-Ukrainian Relations.” — Tusk Praises Zelensky's Commitment
6 hours
„More Than a Prelude to Practical Cooperation.” — Tusk on the Signed Letter of Intent in Kyiv
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