***

-- OPINION PIECE, AUTHENTIC PROPHECY FROM A YEAR AGO:

-- LESS THAN A YEAR BEFORE THE ELECTION, THE OPPOSITION HAS THE SEIZURE OF POWER WITHIN REACH - MICHAŁ DANIELEWSKI WROTE A YEAR AGO IN OKO PRESS: Even without this, the situation for Kaczyński's party is becoming more difficult with each month, and the dismal approval ratings of Mateusz Morawiecki's government and the negative public sentiment offer no hope for a swift counteroffensive. Stagnation, closing ranks, and maintaining around 30% support is, as stated, a recipe for a Pyrrhic victory that will be a spectacular defeat. Less than a year before the election, the opposition has the seizure of power within reach.
https://oko.press/ko-pis-sondaz

***

-- THE DEMOCRATIC COALITION HAS ALREADY STARTED GOVERNING. PIS IS TIGHTENING ITS STANCE - PAWEŁ WROŃSKI IN GW: When will the coalition that won the election finally start governing? The answer is: it already has, starting with the first parliamentary session. PiS, supported by the President, is heading for a confrontation.

-- IN THE LAST OCTOBER ELECTIONS, HOWEVER, IT WAS THE STUPIDITY OF PIS PROPAGANDA AND INCREASING POLITICAL PARANOIA THAT BECAME THE DRIVING FORCE FOR POLES TO HEAD TO THE POLLS - CONTINUES WROŃSKI: It seems that the anti-European and anti-German course is the only tactic that Law and Justice can muster, at least until the European elections in spring 2024, especially since it is no longer constrained by a minimum of political correctness. Whether it's rational calculation or just an outlet for the party leader's frustration is irrelevant. Such a tactic, based on phobias and paranoia, can only be effective on a mass scale with the help of propaganda disseminated by TVP. However, in the last October elections, it was the stupidity of PiS propaganda and the growing political paranoia that became the driving force for Poles to head to the polls.
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,30404074,opozycja-juz-zaczela-rzadzic-pis-zaostrza-kurs.html

-- KRAJEWSKI FROM PSL: I AM NOT VOTING FOR THE ABOLITION OF ABORTION IMMUNITY - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/11/15/

-- REGARDING ABORTION, WE NEED A MIRACLE. PERHAPS HOŁOWNIA'S PREGNANCY - KATARZYNA PRZYBORSKA IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: "Resolutions - Szymon Hołownia announced at a press conference - will be processed in committees. 'The resolutions submitted by Lewica' - the word 'abortion' doesn't pass his lips. Perhaps because he's never been pregnant. If I were pregnant now, I'd be packing my bags. Because Democrats hesitate. Because Democrats have time. (...) In my opinion, a miracle is needed. The Angel Gabriel announced once, perhaps he can announce again. I hope this time he visits Szymon Hołownia. Hołownia's pregnancy would be as great a miracle as virgin birth. And it could be just as disruptive to human history.

-- AND THE DEMOCRATS HAVE TIME. HOWEVER, FROM TODAY ONWARDS, EVERY SUBSEQUENT DEATH WILL ALSO WEIGH ON THEM - CONTINUES PRZYBORSKA IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: And the Democrats have time. However, from today onwards, every subsequent death will also weigh on them. Women should already know that the state protects their lives and health. Therefore, a bill decriminalizing abortion should have been included in the coalition agreement. Of course, one can count on a change in the political climate. Just as it changes in the Sejm, it may also change in hospitals. But women's health and lives are too serious a matter to leave to a possible (or unlikely) thaw.
https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/w-sprawie-aborcji-potrzebujemy-cudu-na-przyklad-holowni-w-ciazy/

-- REGARDING FACILITATING ACCESS TO ABORTION OVER THE NEXT YEAR AND A HALF, IT WILL BE MORE SYMBOLIC-LEGAL ACROBATICS THAN REAL CHANGE. THE LAW WILL PASS NOT SO MUCH DUE TO THE RESISTANCE OF HOŁOWNIA OR KOSINIAK, BUT PRIMARILY DUE TO THE VETO - MALWINA DZIEDZIC IN THIS WEEK'S EDITION OF TYGODNIK POLITYKA: Although the truth is that regarding facilitating access to abortion in Poland over the next year and a half, it will be more symbolic-legal acrobatics than real change. Because such change can only be brought about by law, and it will not pass not so much due to the resistance of Hołownia or Kosiniak, but primarily due to Andrzej Duda's veto (276 votes are needed to override it; the coalition has 248). Because even to issue guidelines to hospital directors who have contracts with the National Health Fund, the Minister of Health needs statutory backing. Therefore, if women get offended again – just like after the publication of the Constitutional Tribunal's ruling, they started declaring they wouldn't go to the polls, and actually stayed home in the summer of 2025, when we elect a new head of state – they will only shoot themselves in the foot.

-- TUSK KNOWS IT'S TIME FOR POLITICAL 'HITMEN' IN THE GOVERNMENT - CONTINUES DZIEDZIC: When appointing the most important ministries, Tusk is guided by one principle: effectiveness. "This is not a time for nice boys or nice girls, but for political hitmen," explains one of the Platform's activists bluntly.

-- AS WE LEARN, THERE WILL BE SEVERAL INVESTIGATIVE COMMITTEES, AND ROMAN GIERTYCH IS TO BE THE COORDINATOR OF THE WORK - CONTINUES DZIEDZIC IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: This includes, among other things, the establishment of investigative committees. As we learn, there will be several of them, and Roman Giertych is to be the coordinator of their work. "Investigative committees are meant to be just the public aspect of presenting the work of prosecutor teams investigating PiS scandals," explains one of the important Platform politicians.

-- TUSK'S GOVERNMENT WILL HAVE TWO OR THREE CYCLES, MEANING: THERE WILL BE CHANGES IN ITS COMPOSITION, PERHAPS EVEN IN SIX MONTHS, BECAUSE PEOPLE WILL SIMPLY BE EXHAUSTED, SUCH IS THE MESS IN THE COUNTRY - PREDICTS A MEMBER OF THE PO MANAGEMENT BOARD - WRITES MALWINA DZIEDZIC FURTHER: "Tusk's government will have two or three cycles, meaning: there will be changes in its composition, perhaps even in six months, because people will simply be exhausted, such is the mess in the country," predicts one of the PO management board members. But even a return to normality will not be enough. The famous "hot water in the tap" will satisfy no one – times have changed, and so has politics. Tusk is aware of this, by the way. After the presentation of the coalition agreement, when asked by a TVN reporter if he felt like he had gone back in time by returning to the prime minister's seat, he replied: "Of the films you're referring to, I like 'Back to the Future' the most. So it's definitely not a return to the past."
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2234760,1,stary-pis-kontra-nowa-wiekszosc-co-czeka-rzad-tuska-to-nie-jest-czas-dla-milych-chlopcow

-- "KACZYŃSKI HAS NEVER BEEN IN WORSE SHAPE THAN NOW." BUT STILL BETTER THAN THE REST OF PIS - JACEK GĄDEK IN GAZETA.PL: So far, Jarosław Kaczyński has bounced back even after the hardest blows. But he was younger. He bounced back after losing power in 2007. He bounced back after the Smolensk catastrophe. Will he bounce back after losing power in 2023? Without him, PiS might fall apart now. Today, PiS is still Jarosław. Kaczyński's position in PiS is being discussed. A PiS parliamentarian said shortly after the elections: "Kaczyński has aged significantly. He should take a position in the party in the coming years where he has control over it, but at the same time doesn't harm it. If he does it skillfully and manages from a withdrawn position, then it's okay, but if he's the frontman, it will be bad. He doesn't always have to appear and speak. After all, he can't cheat biology."
https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,30404913,kaczynski-nigdy-nie-byl-w-tak-zlej-formie-jak-teraz-ale-i.html

-- ELŻBIETA WITEK ON DEATH. THE PIS LEADER'S STRATEGY RAISES DOUBTS WITHIN THE PARTY - KAMILA BARANOWSKA IN INTERIA: Jarosław Kaczyński, as we hear from PiS politicians, does not intend to nominate anyone other than Elżbieta Witek. "Until the bitter end," we hear from one of the MPs when we ask him how long the PiS leader will defend this candidacy. Our interlocutor added that it's not so much about Witek for Kaczyński, but about the principle that each club independently decides whom to nominate. However, not all PiS MPs are as radical as their leader. In unofficial conversations, some of them wonder how long it makes sense to insist on Elżbieta Witek's candidacy. "The leader says until the end, but to fight the enemy, you need to know their plans. By not having our own person in the presidium, we are depriving ourselves of the chance to know what the other side is planning," complains one of our interlocutors from PiS.
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/kraj/news-elzbieta-witek-o-muerte-strategia-prezesa-pis-budzi-watpliwo,nId,7148481

-- THE PIS LEADER HAS DECLARED WAR ON THE EU. IT IS A SUICIDAL AND DESTRUCTIVE PLAN FOR THE POLISH RIGHT-WING - BOGUSŁAW CHRABOTA IN RZ: Such a frontal, consistent, and unsubtle attack on the European Union and presenting it as a fundamental threat to Polish sovereignty has happened for the first time. In numerous campaigns, this was a secondary or equal theme. Now it has become the main topic, and likely, it will be the foundation of the entire post-election political narrative of the United (or still?) Right camp.
https://www.rp.pl/publicystyka/art39403201-boguslaw-chrabota-idzie-agresywny-suwerenizm-wojna-z-unia-moze-byc-zabojcza

-- THE FIRST PARLIAMENTARY SESSION AND HOŁOWNIA'S FIRST PASS - PIOTR ŚMIŁOWICZ IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: It must be admitted that despite the difficult task and lack of experience, the leader of Poland 2050 handled it well. He allowed members of the PiS government to speak, who, signing up one after another, clearly aimed to abuse the parliamentary regulation that allows any representative of the Council of Ministers to speak from the parliamentary tribune, and out of turn. At the same time, Hołownia did not allow ministers to give speeches without any time limit. He showed that he understands that in every legal provision, its spirit is as important as its letter. Perhaps this is not yet the first passed exam – but the inaugural credit in the index is already there.
https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/pierwsze-posiedzenie-sejmu-i-pierwsze-zaliczenie-holowni-185354

-- HOŁOWNIA SHOWS HE KNOWS HOW TO CONDUCT PARLIAMENTARY DEBATES - AGNIESZKA JĘDRZEJCZYK IN OKO.PRESS: It turned out, however – to PiS's visible surprise – that Hołownia already knows the parliamentary regulations, is not susceptible to jibes, and quite effectively deflects them. He even silences the MPs attacking him.
https://oko.press/na-zywo/dzien-na-zywo-najwazniejsze-informacje/14-listopada-podsumowanie-dnia-holownia-prowadzi-obrady

-- THE CHANGE IN THE POLITICAL ATMOSPHERE WAS ASTOUNDING. IT WAS PERFECTLY PERCEPTIBLE IN THE BEHAVIOR OF POLITICIANS, AS IF SOMEONE, AFTER YEARS OF STAGNATION, HAD FINALLY VENTILATED THE PARLIAMENTARY HALLS AND CORRIDORS - JAROSŁAW KUISZ IN INTERIA: And it seemed that recently the sovereign had given Jarosław Kaczyński an egalitarian lesson in humility. When the politician tried to cut in line (by what right?), the voters sent him to the end of it. And that was a true Polish triumph of equality. A beautiful symbol of the change of 2023. However, as was evident in the Sejm yesterday, some politicians really don't want to learn anything about democracy anymore. Let alone change for the better.
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-jaroslaw-kaczynski-spoznia-sie-na-hymn,nId,7148561

-- ROMAN GIERTYCH'S POLITICAL CHILDREN ARE BACK WITH DADDY IN THE SPOTLIGHT. A LICENSED RIGHT-WING OF THE TUSK REGIME? - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: These so-called "realists" either have no idea about politics or were part of this grand deception. Because it was a deception - the goal was to take votes away from the independence camp, from Prime Minister Jarosław Kaczyński's formation, and channel them to the Third Polish Republic camp. We are witnessing this happening before our eyes. The first open deal in the Sejm is behind us. Konfederacja supported Hołownia, they supported Bosak for deputy speaker. He now mocks that Elżbieta Witek is unelectable, and he is the only representative of the right-wing. If anything, he is the licensed right-wing of the Tusk regime. A plan for such a role is emerging for Mentzen's, Bosak's, and Wipler's group. And even a new version of Palikot, a boor attacking Law and Justice, has been recruited there.
https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/670675-polityczne-dzieci-giertycha-wrocily-do-tatusia

-- PARTIA RAZEM IS NOT JOINING KOSCIÓŁKOWA'S GOVERNMENT COALITION - GALOPUJĄCY MAJOR IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: In short: each of the smaller clubs, like PSL, Hołownia's party, or Lewica, could have stood their ground. Meanwhile, only Hołownia's party and PSL stood their ground – on the issue of abortion, while Czarzasty's negotiator accepted almost everything without a word of protest. It ended with Czarzasty declaring in the media that liberalizing abortion is impossible to achieve, and then shamelessly professing his love for Kosiniak-Kamysz.

-- THE VERY MOVE WITH A ROTATING MARSHAL FOR LEWICA IN TWO YEARS WILL TURN OUT TO BE AN ADDITIONAL, EFFECTIVE CULPRIT FOR CZARZASTY - CONTINUES MAJOR: After all, so many of his former colleagues were in government, and he was always on the sidelines. Leszek Miller will finally be jealous. The very move with a rotating marshal for Lewica in two years will turn out to be an additional, effective culprit for Czarzasty. If he is obedient in the "churchgoing" coalition of three altar boys, Tusk, Kosiniak, and Hołownia, he might get the marshal. And if he's not, he won't.

-- PERHAPS, HOWEVER, TUSK WAS FULLY AWARE OF THIS AND HAS ALREADY THROWN ALL THE LEFT-WING DEMANDS INTO THE BIN - CONTINUES MAJOR: Perhaps it would have been better for Razem to join this "churchgoing" government, and then leave it with a bang when another left-wing issue was not resolved. Perhaps, however, Tusk was fully aware of this and has already thrown all the left-wing demands into the bin. Well, time will tell if this straddle will yield any political fruit. For now, Razem, as one of the few parties in recent years, is not entering the government not due to a lack of positions in state-owned companies, but due to a lack of fulfillment of promises.
https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/partia-razem-nie-wchodzi-do-kosciolkowej-koalicji-rzadowej/

-- THIS HERALDS A HARMFUL LOGIC FOR THE 10TH TERM SEJM - JACEK CZAPUTOWICZ ON OPINIONS IN RZ: The first day of the 10th term Sejm's proceedings made it clear that the former opposition now holds the majority. Meanwhile, in accordance with previous announcements, Andrzej Duda entrusted Mateusz Morawiecki with the mission of forming a government. It is difficult to find a more convincing proof that the president is not guided by the desire for the swift formation of a government by those who won the elections. In retaliation, the parliamentary majority blocked the election of PiS candidates for Deputy Speakers of the Sejm and Senate – Elżbieta Witek and Marek Pęk. This indicates that we must prepare for a "you scratch my back, I'll scratch yours" strategy – to the detriment of Polish democracy.
https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art39400171-jacek-czaputowicz-czy-w-nowym-parlamencie-czeka-nas-strategia-wet-za-wet

-- BY REJECTING PĘK, THE OPPOSITION HELPS PIS'S NARRATIVE - JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: And while rejecting Witek for frequent violations of Sejm regulations was justified from the opposition's side, torpedoing Marek Pęk's candidacy is less so. It's true that Pęk did insult opposition senators, comparing them to Russian agents, for which he was punished by the Ethics Committee, but by rejecting him, the opposition also played a previously prepared role in PiS's theater. Civic Platform, Lewica, and Third Way are attacking freedom and democracy – that is the narrative of Kaczyński's party.
https://www.rp.pl/publicystyka/art39403211-jacek-nizinkiewicz-dlugie-pozegnanie-pis-z-wladza-na-dodatek-opozycja-pomaga-kaczynskiemu

-- THE BLAZER CREATES GENDER INEQUALITY BECAUSE MPs SWEAR LONGER, ADDING A SIGNIFICANT ELEMENT TO THE VERBAL-PANTOMIMIC SET - PIOTR PACEWICZ IN OKO.PRESS: The MP stands up, straightens, fastens his jacket, which sometimes, as in the case of Szymon Hołownia, and his colleague from Poland 2050, Kamil Wnuk, and Jan Dziedziczak from PiS, takes longer because the button doesn't want to go through the hole. Having fastened his jacket, he smooths it and only then begins to swear. The blazer creates gender inequality because MPs swear longer, adding a significant element to the verbal-pantomimic set. In this Sejm of deep divisions, the blazer ritual united all 323 voting men, except for Adrian Zandberg, who swore with his jacket unbuttoned. There is nothing strange about this, as the Razem party always walks separately.
https://oko.press/tak-mi-dopomoz-bog-poslanki-rezygnuja-szokujace-zmiany-slubowania-ko-oraz-marynarka-nierownosci

-- IF A SCHISM IN THE CHURCH IS TO REALLY BEGIN ANYWHERE, IT IS ONLY IN AMERICA. FIRST, BECAUSE UNLIKE RELIGIOUSLY DYING EUROPE, THE STRENGTH OF CATHOLICISM IS STILL IMMENSE THERE - JAN ROKITA IN TEOLOGIA POLITYCZNA: In recent years, one could read and hear a lot about the danger of a schism, provoked by excessively progressive German bishops. But this is not true, because Rome, in accordance with the ideological preferences of the Pope himself, is constantly easing, not escalating, the dispute with Germany. If a schism in the Church is to really begin anywhere, it is only in America. Firstly, because unlike religiously dying Europe, the strength of Catholicism is still immense there, and the camps of church "right" and "left" are deeply entrenched and have legions of supporters. And secondly – because American Christians, as has long been known, have always had a strong tendency towards sectarian actions, and this old tendency has been further revived by the ongoing political war between Trump and the liberal-left camp, which ignites millions of Americans. Bishop Strickland – an ideologue, a pious man, and at the same time an excellent speaker, who was expelled after Rome's decision, is becoming precisely the leading spiritual leader of the entire American alt-right camp, someone like a vice-Trump. His leading defender is already a politician – General Flynn, a former national security advisor to Trump. Thus, quite unexpectedly for Rome, a schism in the Church could begin with the upcoming culmination of the war that is sweeping through American politics.
https://teologiapolityczna.pl/jan-rokita-moja-obawa-o-rozlam

-- BIRTHDAYS: Jerzy Borowczak, Aleksander Kwaśniewski (68), Eugeniusz Kłopotek, Wadim Tyszkiewicz, Karolina Wydra, Marzena Suchan, Stanisław Janas.