state of play: 11/10/2023

STATE OF PLAY: Kaczyński on Succession: Someone Younger, Tested in Fire and Ice; SE: Morawiecki the Clear Favorite Among PiS Voters; Skrzydłowska-Kalukin: Waiting for a New President Could Deplete the Future Governing Coalition's Momentum

Łukasz Mężyk

-- ONLY THIS PHOTO FROM THE CONFERENCE AT THE POLISH-BELARUSIAN BORDER FULFILLED MY IMAGINATION OF HOW TO PAINT A MESS - WILHELM SASNAL IN CONVERSATION WITH DONATA SUBBOTKO IN GW: “I didn't want to paint Kaczyński or his entourage because I felt bad that they occupied so much of my thoughts, living in my head. And if I were to paint them, how? Only this photo from the conference at the Polish-Belarusian border fulfilled my imagination of how to paint a mess. The photo was taken in the spring, shortly after they built that barrier. Three of them stand before microphones, a fence behind them, dusty boots. First, I decided to paint them upside down – as a sign of disagreement. But a year ago, I painted the head responsible for the shooting in the States that way, such an innocent face. His portrait hangs upside down. And in the end, I painted Kaczyński, Błaszczak, and the third one differently, but I think it was sufficiently eloquent. It's my protest.” -- THESE ARE PATHOLOGICAL CASES. I AM ABSOLUTELY NOT JOKING, IN MY OPINION THEY NEED TREATMENT. AFTER ALL, EVERYTHING THEY DID TO US WAS A TOTAL DEVASTATION OF THE WORLD WE LIVE IN, THE DESTRUCTION OF THE STATE, OF HUMAN RELATIONSHIPS - SASNAL FURTHER STATES TO SUBBOTKO: “People like Kaczyński or Ziobro are not healthy. These are pathological cases. I am absolutely not joking, in my opinion they need treatment. After all, everything they did to us was a total devastation of the world we live in, the destruction of the state, of human relationships. I myself previously felt the need to understand people who supported them, I felt empathy, I felt guilty that I succeeded while they didn't, but over time there was less and less tolerance and attempts to understand them. How can one - I have to say it - be so stupid as to be manipulated by the nonsense they spout, for example by intensifying fears of refugees. Who are they afraid of? A hundred, a thousand, even ten thousand people fleeing poverty or war?” -- HOWEVER, I FEAR THAT AT LEAST SOME OF THE KIDS ALREADY HAVE THEIR MINDS PLOWED OVER BY PiS EDUCATION - SASNAL TELLS SUBBOTKO IN GW: “Anka and I recently had a sad experience at Campus Polska Przyszłości. We were at a meeting with Anna Bikont, and among the listeners was a group of young men, probably students, our son's generation. When we heard the questions they asked Anna Bikont, we realized that this must be the effect of eight years of PiS education. Youth that has "risen from its knees" and demands respect for Poland, not some truth about Polish-Jewish history during the war. For me, it was terrifying. After the impressive protests of the young people from the Women's Strike, I thought that only they, these young people, could be relied upon. However, I fear that at least some of the kids already have their minds plowed over by PiS education.” -- I HAVE THE COMFORT OF NOT HAVING TO COLLABORATE WITH PiS PEOPLE OR PERSONS APPOINTED BY THEM, WHOM I DO NOT RESPECT AND WHO ARE ALIEN TO ME FOR IDEOLOGICAL REASONS - SASNAL FURTHER STATES IN GW TO SUBBOTKO: “I was offered participation in an exhibition at Zachęta, which I gladly refused. I have the comfort of not having to collaborate with PiS people or persons appointed by them, whom I do not respect and who are alien to me for ideological reasons. The visual arts world is difficult to control, as everyone operates quite autonomously here; it's probably different in theaters, for example, which depend on the ministry. And in recent years, the money that should have gone to culture went to fascists, among others. But the bubble I live in is quite large, I can always find like-minded people in it, and that's nice.” https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,303344,wilhelm-sasnal-i-w-koncu-namalowalem-kaczynskiego.html -- THIRD WAY WITH THE BIGGEST DROP IN SUPPORT, THE LEFT IS GROWING - ACCORDING TO THE LATEST UNITED SURVEYS POLL FOR WIRTUALNA POLSKA: “According to the results of the survey, 33.2% of respondents would cast their vote for PiS. In turn, for Civic Coalition - 30.4%. Compared to the previous survey, conducted in the second half of October, both groupings recorded an increase in support - Jarosław Kaczyński's party by 0.4 percentage points, and Donald Tusk's party by 0.5 percentage points. The Third Way was chosen by 16.1% of respondents (a decrease of 2.6 percentage points), this party recorded the largest drop in support. The largest increase in support, in turn, was recorded by the Left - 3.01 percentage points. In the survey, 8.5% of respondents voted for it. Confederation takes last place with a result of 6% - 0.5 percentage points less than in the previous survey. In turn, 5.5% of respondents do not know who they would vote for.” https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,30387579,trzecia-droga-z-duzym-spadkiem-poparcia-lew.html -- SAWICKI: FROM THE COALITION TALKS, THE MOST CERTAIN INFORMATION IS THAT HOŁOWNIA WILL BE THE CANDIDATE FOR MARSHAL OF THE SEJM - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/11/10/ -- KACZYŃSKI ON SUCCESSION IN PiS: SOMEONE YOUNGER THAN ME, TESTED IN FIRE AND ICE - ANTON AMBROZIAK REPORTS IN OKO.PRESS ON A CONVERSATION WITH KACZYŃSKI IN PAP: “PiS Chairman Jarosław Kaczyński announced in an interview with the Polish Press Agency that a new party leader will be elected in 2024. 'I think it cannot be someone with a short tenure in our party. It must be someone a generation younger than me, tested in fire and ice. We have such people' – Kaczyński explained.” -- THIS MISSION WILL REFER TO FACTS, TO THE SITUATION IN THE EUROPEAN UNION. IT WILL REFER TO THE REAL INTERESTS OF POLITICAL FORMATIONS THAT DO NOT NECESSARILY HAVE TO ALIGN WITH PO'S INTERESTS - KACZYŃSKI FURTHER STATES: “At best, it may end with a failure to obtain a vote of confidence, which is nothing special in a democracy. This mission will refer to facts, to the situation in the European Union. It will refer to the real interests of political formations that do not necessarily have to align with PO's interests. The ultimate decisions on assessing interests are made by the leaders of these formations” – Kaczyński said.” -- THE SITUATION FROM 2007 HAS REPEATED ITSELF - KACZYŃSKI FURTHER STATES: “The situation from 2007 has repeated itself – our opponents managed to medially distort the image of reality, they provoked a reflex of a large part of society against us. They did it with methods more brutal and vulgar than then.” https://oko.press/na-zywo/wybory-na-zywo-oko-press/kaczynski-o-sukcesji-w-pis -- SZEFERNAKER AS SECRETARY-GENERAL OF PiS? - AGATA KONDZIŃSKA IN GW: “PiS already has a candidate for club leader – Mariusz Błaszczak, for deputy speaker – Elżbieta Witek. A list of names for parliamentary committees is already circulating within the party. Following the resignation of Secretary-General Krzysztof Sobolewski, candidates for his position include: Deputy Minister of Interior and Administration Paweł Szefernaker and Minister from the Prime Minister's Chancellery Zbigniew Hoffmann. - I heard that Szefernaker was previously indicated, now the scales are tipping towards Hoffmann - says our interlocutor from Nowogrodzka.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,30386404,oficjalnie-morawiecki-tworzy-rzad-w-kuluarach-ludzie-pis-juz.html -- MORAWIECKI IS THE FAVORITE AMONG PiS VOTERS: “When asked who should replace Jarosław Kaczyński if he were to cease being the leader of Law and Justice, 33% of people declaring support for the United Right answered Mateusz Morawiecki – according to a poll commissioned by "Super Express" by the Pollster Research Institute. Andrzej Duda came in second (20%), Elżbieta Witek third (12%), and Beata Szydło fourth (10%).” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/670141-sondaz-kto-powinien-zostac-nastepca-jaroslawa-kaczynskiego -- IT WAS NOT PiS'S IDEOLOGICAL COURSE THAT DECIDED THE ELECTION RESULT. THE KEY TO THE FUTURE IS THE POLITICAL MACHINE, NOT VIOLENT TURNS - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “PiS lost power because it did not find an answer to the great wave of hatred, artificially but effectively imposed on society, symbolized by the eight stars. PiS lost power because COVID, war, and inflation undermined the sense of security and stability. PiS lost because it conducted a campaign too similar to previous campaigns, at a time when the center of gravity shifted from traditional media to the internet sphere. PiS lost because it lacked a force that would balance the power of externally funded opposition NGOs.” -- WE NEED TO START BY BUILDING A POLITICAL MACHINE THAT WILL ACCUMULATE KNOWLEDGE, COMPETENCE, AND EXPERIENCE IN TECHNOLOGICALLY COMPLEX AREAS REQUIRING STABILITY AND CONSISTENCY - KARNOWSKI FURTHER STATES: “It is too early for final conclusions. The dust of battle is still settling. But if one thing is known, it is this: Law and Justice should not torment itself today with questions about its ideological or worldview course, because that is not where the cause of October 15th lies, nor where the greatest reserves are. We need to start by building a political machine that will accumulate knowledge, competence, and experience in technologically complex areas requiring stability and consistency. We need to start by professionalizing many areas that should actually be excluded from the current political game. Without this, no worldview maneuvers will not only fail to help but will obviously harm.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/670085-to-nie-kurs-ideologiczny-pis-zdecydowal-o-wyniku-wyborow -- CONFEDERATION SHOULD HAVE ITS OWN DEPUTY MARSHAL - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “I believe that all parliamentary clubs should have a Deputy Marshal of the Sejm, including Confederation. This is about maximizing the democratization of parliamentary actions. But there are also other reasons. Confederation likes to present itself as an anti-system party – so it should be incorporated into the system, even though it espouses anti-democratic views. This will weaken its propaganda about supposed exclusion from political life. Of course, the choice of candidate also remains an issue here. If the Confederates nominated someone like Grzegorz Braun, there would be no question of support. But Krzysztof Bosak, as a candidate, should be accepted by the parliamentary majority.” -- THE OPPOSITION CANNOT VOTE FOR WITEK - WIELOWIEYSKA FURTHER STATES: “In summary: Elżbieta Witek should be held responsible for breaking the law, at least in this aspect, and the parliamentary majority should vote against her candidacy. Of course, Ryszard Terlecki, who has repeatedly exceeded the standards for a Deputy Marshal of the Sejm, should not hold this function either. He insulted opposition MPs, including Sławomir Nitras. And at the same time, Confederation needs to be included in the Presidium of the Sejm.” https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,30384703,wielowieyska-konfederacja-powinna-miec-swojego-wicemarszalka.html -- CONFEDERATION SHOULD HAVE A DEPUTY MARSHAL IN THE SEJM. IT'S ABOUT STANDARDS AND PRAGMATISM - BOGUSŁAW CHRABOTA IN RZ: “Whether Bosak and Mentzen's party fits within democratic debate was decided by 1.5 million of its voters. And they deserve respect. As do the elected MPs. I will remind you that one of them, Krzysztof Bosak, ran for president in 2020, garnering over 1.3 million votes. That's three times more than Ms. Dziemianowicz-Bąk's party colleague – Robert Biedroń. Does he in fact possess no democratic mandate? Only an ignorant person would deny that.” https://www.rp.pl/publicystyka/art39385161-boguslaw-chrabota-konfederacja-powinna-miec-w-sejmie-wicemarszalka-chodzi-o-standardy-i-pragmatyzm -- THE PRESIDENT WILL SABOTAGE THE RESTORATION OF THE RULE OF LAW - KATARZYNA SKRZYDŁOWSKA-KALUKIN IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “Andrzej Duda still feels like part of the PiS team, and the rest of his presidency will pass that way. He will sabotage attempts to restore the rule of law in Poland, which means that aggressive political maneuvering, bordering on controversial legal ideas, may prove to be the only effective way to exercise power and restore legal order in the most important state institutions.” -- WAITING FOR A CHANGE OF PRESIDENT COULD CAUSE THE FUTURE GOVERNING COALITION TO LOSE MOMENTUM - SKRZYDŁOWSKA-KALUKIN FURTHER STATES IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “Waiting for a change of president could cause the future governing coalition to lose momentum and be unable to fulfill its promises, in which the rule of law plays a key role. And disappointed social hopes will hinder political change in the presidential office.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2023/11/09/skrzydlowska-kalukin-andrzej-w-pis-owskim-rekawie-prezydent-bedzie-sabotowal-przywrocenie-praworzadnosci/ -- I AM NOT A FAN OF CHAIRMAN GLAPIŃSKI, WHO MADE SERIOUS MISTAKES, BUT IT WOULD BE A MISTAKE TO PUT THE MATTER TO A HEAD, ENGAGE IN TOTAL WAR AND BEND THE LAW - PAWEŁ ROŻYŃSKI IN RZ: “I am not a fan of Chairman Glapiński, who made serious mistakes in fighting inflation and will be remembered mainly for his flowery speeches at press conferences or investment advice on the pier in Sopot. However, it would be a mistake to put the matter to a head, engage in total war and bend the law just to get rid of him. This could threaten the stability of the state and the money of Poles. It is better to think about systemic solutions and a thorough depoliticization of the entire economy and institutions, selecting people for positions based on criteria other than loyalty and political connections, rather than just focusing on 'liquidating' the most visible enemies.” https://www.rp.pl/opinie-ekonomiczne/art39385311-pawel-rozynski-nie-ma-co-na-sile-usuwac-adama-glapinskiego-z-nbp-lepiej-pomyslec-o-czyms-innym -- PERHAPS THE FOOTBALL CHURCH SHOULD BE RADICALLY CUT OFF FROM PUBLIC MONEY, PERHAPS ONLY THE FAITHFUL, FOLLOWERS OF THIS RELIGION, SHOULD MAINTAIN IT? - JULIUSZ BRAUN IN GW: “Football – as the former TVP chairman used to say – is a modern dimension of patriotism. So, we all – willingly or not – contribute to the football church. Not only by financing stadium construction from public funds, subsidizing clubs and various football academies. Does anyone know how much it costs to involve thousands of police officers and hundreds of patrol cars almost every week to maintain order during football rituals? And how much does it cost to maintain chairs and departments at state universities that deal with football scientifically and train football coaches? So, perhaps the football church should be radically cut off from public money, perhaps only the faithful, followers of this religion, should maintain it? I don't hear anything? Quite right. The state cannot ignore the needs of a large group of citizens. However, I often hear: let the faithful maintain the Church themselves. Only, it's not about the football church.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30385942,pieniadze-kosciola-futbolowego-na-co-zgadzamy-sie-placic-a.html -- THERE WILL BE NO OTHER NOVEMBER 11TH - ESTERA FLIEGER IN RZ: “Since the Independence March will not disappear – let's remember that alongside organizations that should be monitored by ABW, families with children are truly marching in it, and not everyone can find themselves in a counter-demonstration – perhaps it's time to come to terms with it and build something new. Although in fact, the wheel doesn't need to be reinvented. Americans have July 4th, the French celebrate ten days later – everything happens in an atmosphere of parades, in the summer. So, maybe we should use our August 15th, because the anniversary of the Battle of Warsaw has everything to accommodate us.” https://www.rp.pl/publicystyka/art39385141-estera-flieger-innego-11-listopada-nie-bedzie -- NEW ORGANIZERS OF THE INDEPENDENCE MARCH: UNDER THE RULE OF THE CENTER-LEFT, IT WILL BE BETTER TO MARCH. THEIR GOVERNANCE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN OUR POPULARITY - PIOTR GŁUCHOWSKI IN GW: “– How many participants are you expecting? – I ask Jabłoński. – After the pandemic, attendance has dropped, but I hope for 100,000. I don't rule out that due to the change of government, the patriotic electorate will mobilize. Under the rule of the center-left, it will be better to march. You will see that their governance will lead to an increase in our popularity. The march has always been a sign of protest, not submission. Perhaps except for the period with Bąkiewicz. On November 11, we will march "against" again. – Will you be burning any new flags? – We distance ourselves from those incidents. The head of the security detail is Marzoch, and he assures that all irresponsible behavior will be nipped in the bud.” https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,30371450,nowi-organizatorzy-marszu-niepodleglosci-pod-wladza-centrolewu.html -- WHO WILL SUPERVISE THESE "RIGHTEOUS" NOW? - RAFAŁ WOŚ IN INTERIA: “After the elections, a conviction is unfortunately beginning to sprout in the ranks of the anti-PiS camp that "rules of democracy" or "rule of law" do not really apply to them. Because, after all, they are "democrats". (...) A large part of the mainstream media will not take up the topic. Some will argue (this is already starting) that PiS started it itself and is now getting what it deserves. Others will be happy, because in their opinion, the right must be dragged through the mud so that they remember it forever and don't rush to power so eagerly again. Others will lack the strength or courage. Few will want to fight the mainstream and gain a reputation as "defenders of PiS". Symmetry has never been in vogue. And it won't be any more now.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-kto-teraz-przypilnuje-tych-praworzadnych,nId,7138814 -- PEKAO ANALYSTS: OVER THE NEXT DECADE, THE POLISH ECONOMY MAY REQUIRE APPROXIMATELY PLN 250 BILLION IN ADDITIONAL ANNUAL INVESTMENTS: https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/11/10/analitycy-pekao-przez-najblizsza-dekade-polska-gospodarka-moze-potrzebowac-rocznie-okolo-250-mld-zl-dodatkowych-inwestycji/ -- TOMORROW MARKS 105 YEARS SINCE THE DAY the Regency Council transferred command of the army subordinate to it to Józef Piłsudski. -- 43 YEARS AGO, NSZZ “Solidarność” was registered. -- 26 YEARS AGO, Jerzy Buzek's government obtained a vote of confidence. -- 38 YEARS AGO (on Sunday), on the orders of Minister of Internal Affairs Gen. Czesław Kiszczak, the Citizens' Militia began Operation "Hyacinth," which involved collecting materials on Polish homosexuals and their environment, resulting in the registration of approximately 11,000 files. -- 8 YEARS AGO (on Sunday), President Duda nominated Beata Szydło for the office of Prime Minister. -- STATE OF PLAY RETURNS ON MONDAY. -- BIRTHDAYS: Andrzej Wojciech Bratkowski, Wacław Martyniuk, Bogdan Lis, Joanna Solska, Tadeusz Arkit, Andrzej Orzechowski. On SATURDAY: Jolanta Banach, Mikołaj Budzanowski, Artur Warzocha. On SUNDAY: Agnieszka Chłoń-Domińczak, Jakub Kulesza, Marek Tatała, Norbert Wojnarowski.

Łukasz Mężyk