state of play: 11/08/2023
POLITICAL GAME STATE: Miączyński: New coalition needs a symbol of partially fulfilled promises; Sawicki: Poland needs cooperation, I will encourage de-escalation of KO-PiS dispute
-- ZELENSKY AND NETANYAHU – UNEXPECTED ALLIES - KONSTANTY GEBERT IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “Meanwhile, President Zelensky has unequivocally condemned Hamas and supported Israel’s actions in Gaza. Earlier, the Russian Foreign Ministry received a delegation of leading Hamas figures, and on the same day – Iran’s Foreign Minister. Hamas responded enthusiastically, calling Moscow ‘our greatest friend on the international stage’ – which, incidentally, must have caused some dissatisfaction in Tehran. Israel reacted sharply to Russia’s volte-face, stating that Moscow, due to its aggression in Ukraine, has no moral right to lecture others. The observation is valid, but it would be more credible if it were made in response to this aggression, and not over a year and a half later. More importantly, Israel has ceased – and, even more importantly, has publicly announced that it has ceased – coordinating its airstrikes in Syria with Russia.”
https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2023/11/06/gebert-zelenski-i-netanjahu-nieoczekiwani-sojusznicy/
-- BALCEROWICZ: I FIND IT AMUSING WHEN I HEAR FROM OPPOSITION CIRCLES THAT WE WILL REPLACE THE PI(S) OBajtek WITH OUR BETTER OBajtek. IT’S A JOKE - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/11/08/
-- ANDRZEJ DOMAŃSKI IS THE CANDIDATE FOR THE HEAD OF THE MINISTRY OF FINANCE – UNOFFICIALLY ESTABLISHED BY MONEY.PL - ŁUKASZ KIJEK, KRYSTIAN ROSIŃSKI: “Andrzej Domański is the candidate for the head of the finance ministry – money.pl has unofficially established. He is an elected MP, and previously the head of the Civic Institute, a political think tank associated with Civic Platform. As money.pl has established, Andrzej Domański’s candidacy was not the only one on the negotiating table. Mateusz Szczurek, Marek Rozkrut, and Ludwik Kotecki were also considered for the position of finance minister.”
https://www.money.pl/gospodarka/nieoficjalnie-andrzej-domanski-przyszlym-ministrem-finansow-news-money-pl-6960693220563648a.html
-- MINISTRY OF EDUCATION FOR LEWICA AFTER ALL? - AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK IN OKO.PRESS: “We are observing further rounds in the coalition negotiations. Priorities of the future government, spheres of influence, and names are being decided. In the previous round of negotiations, the fate of the Ministry of Education was supposed to have been settled. Education was to fall within Civic Platform’s sphere of influence. However, on Tuesday, journalists heard that education is once again a hot topic. Lewica was said to have returned to its efforts to secure the Ministry of Education. (...) According to some of our sources, it is not Lewica at all, but Donald Tusk who has a candidate he is very keen on. Many individuals are being mentioned as candidates to head the Ministry of Education. From Civic Platform: Barbara Nowacka, Katarzyna Lubnauer, Kinga Gajewska, Izabela Leszczyna, Dorota Łoboda. From Third Way: Michał Gramatyka, Przemysław Staroń, Joanna Mucha.”
https://oko.press/ministerstwo-edukacji-jednak-dla-lewicy
-- COALITION WITH A RAZOR AT ITS THROAT. IF IT FAILS TO PASS THE BUDGET, DUDA WILL DISSOLVE PARLIAMENT - PIOTR MIĄCZYŃSKI IN GW: “The PiS government submitted the budget bill to the Sejm on September 29th. From that moment, four months begin to run to present the budget law for signature to Andrzej Duda, as stipulated by the constitution. If this fails, Duda may dissolve parliament prematurely. Indeed, there are also voices among constitutionalists who claim that these four months are counted from the submission of the budget bill in the new parliamentary term. However, playing games with President Duda in interpreting the constitution is highly risky.”
-- WHEN TUSK REMOVES THE SHIELD – AND EVERYTHING INDICATES IT – MORAWIECKI AND COMPANY WILL LUNGE AT HIS THROAT - MIĄCZYŃSKI FURTHER IN GW: “The food shield came into effect in February 2022. VAT was only reduced on goods taxed at a 5% VAT rate. This accounts for about 80% of our purchases. The PiS budget plan does not envision maintaining the shield next year. This generates revenues of PLN 13.5 billion. When Tusk removes the shield – and everything indicates he will – Morawiecki and his associates will lunge at his throat. And it won’t matter that they themselves planned a similar move.”
-- THE NEW COALITION ALSO NEEDS A SYMBOL. A DEMONSTRATION THAT THE ELECTION PROMISES, WHICH WERE GENEROUSLY DISPENSED, ARE AT LEAST PARTIALLY FULFILLED - WRITES MIĄCZYŃSKI: “The new coalition also needs a symbol. A demonstration that the election promises, which were generously dispensed, are at least partially fulfilled. Salary increases will play this role: 20 percent for public sector employees and 30 percent for teachers. This amounts to PLN 26–30 billion. The public sector, employing over 1.6 million people – civil servants, teachers, and healthcare workers – has been treated exceptionally poorly by PiS. If Morawiecki and his associates have been economizing on anyone in recent years, it has been them.”
https://wyborcza.biz/biznes/7,177151,30377530,nowa-koalicja-ma-brzytwe-na-gardle-jesli-nie-wyrobi-sie-z-uchwaleniem.html
-- NO GOVERNMENT OF THE THIRD REPUBLIC, PERHAPS EXCEPT FOR THE FIRST ONE OF TADEUSZ MAZOWIECKI, BEGAN ITS MISSION FACED WITH SUCH A MOUNTAIN OF EXPECTATIONS AND HOPES, IN SUCH A DIFFICULT, BOTH REAL AND MORAL, SITUATION - JERZY BACZYŃSKI IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “No government of the Third Republic, perhaps except for the first one of Tadeusz Mazowiecki, began its mission facing such a mountain of expectations and hopes, in such a difficult, both real and moral, situation. And to some extent, the tasks today are similar to those: rebuilding the state after years of autocratic, one-party rule. But history teaches us that to avoid frustration, we, the voters, must remember that on October 15th, we elected only a new democratic, coalition government – hopefully sensible and competent – not magicians and miracle workers. Those have ruled us for the last 8 years.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2233806,1,no-to-zaczynamy.read
-- MAREK SAWICKI ON THE PRESIDENT'S PHONE CALL - IN AN INTERVIEW WITH DOROTA WYSOCKA-SCHNEPF IN GW: “Like any call. The secretariat called and asked if I could speak with the President. I was a bit surprised, wondering why the President would call me, but I said yes, please. And the President came on the line and said he would like to invite me to his office for a meeting, a conversation. I asked when this was to happen. Today. At what time? At 4 PM. And could we make it half an hour earlier, Mr. President? Because I had my schedule arranged. He said: yes, please, at 3:30 PM. And we met at 3:30 PM. The President received me in his office and told me why he had invited me.”
-- THE PRESIDENT PROBABLY CONCLUDED THAT THE POLITICAL SCENE NEEDS SOME CALMING DOWN - SAWICKI TELLS WYSOCKA-SCHNEPF: “So the President probably concluded that the political scene needs some calming down, the intensity of the dispute needs to be softened, and therefore he is reaching out to centrist politicians. With whom he also associates hopes regarding the change of the political scene in Poland in the coming years.”
-- POLAND NEEDS COOPERATION. AND I WILL ENCOURAGE THE DE-ESCALATION OF THE DISPUTE, ALSO ON THE KO-PIS LINE - SAWICKI FURTHER WITH WYSOCKA-SCHNEPF IN GW: “However, I know one thing – that Poland needs cooperation. And I will encourage the de-escalation of the dispute, also on the KO-PiS line. I think PiS politicians will also come to their senses, that this conflict, which has been generated and fueled for eight years, serves no one. And certainly not Poland and Poles. Besides, I think Donald Tusk has also repeatedly emphasized that the fact that PiS lost these elections – because they are unable to form a majority government – does not mean that the PiS electorate is defeated. This electorate is also needed by Poland, and one must talk with these people as well.”
-- IN MY ASSESSMENT, EQUALLY WELL, ALTHOUGH LAWYERS ARE STILL ARGUING ABOUT THIS, THE NEWLY ELECTED MARSHAL, AS EARLY AS NOVEMBER 13TH OR 14TH, CAN ANNOUNCE THE SEJM'S SESSION IN SEVEN DAYS - SAYS SAWICKI: “In my assessment, equally well, although lawyers are still arguing about this, the newly elected Marshal, as early as November 13th or 14th, can announce the Sejm’s session in seven days, where the sole item on the agenda could be a constructive vote of no confidence in the new, not yet formed government of Mateusz Morawiecki.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,30377352,sawicki-morawiecki-rzadu-nie-stworzy-apeluje-niech-skroci.html
-- THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO ASSUMES THAT PIS WILL DRAG OUT THE PROCESS AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “The more likely scenario assumes that PiS will drag out the process of forming a government as much as possible. After all, following a failed vote of no confidence, the initiative in forming a government passes to the Sejm, which will elect the prime minister and ministers without the head of state’s participation, and the president will have to appoint such a cabinet. But until then, PiS people in state-owned companies and media will collect another salary, distribute some additional money to their own people, and Mateusz Morawiecki will appoint the head of the Financial Supervision Authority.”
-- THE PALACE WILL TRY TO BUILD GOOD RELATIONS WITH PSL AND KONFEDERACJA BECAUSE IT DREAMS OF A PI(S) COALITION WITH THESE PARTIES - WIELOWIEYSKA FURTHER: “The Presidential Palace will try to build good relations with PSL and Konfederacja because it dreams of a PiS coalition with these parties. Sawicki is firmly stating today that Tusk should be the prime minister. But Duda is treating this gesture as an investment in the future because he wants to play potential coalition partners against each other.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,30376703,duda-wybral-interes-partyjny-i-ujawnil-jak-bedzie-rozgrywal.html
-- ANDRZEJ DUDA IS BUILDING POLITICAL CAPITAL FOR PI(S) - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “Jarosław Kaczyński’s party will be given a serious argument to mobilize their voters to defend this program. The first opportunity will come in six months during the local government elections, two months later the European elections will take place, and a year after that, it will be time for presidential elections. PiS is currently building capital that it intends to use for the coming years. And this perhaps constitutes the main goal of this entire political masquerade.”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art39374711-michal-szuldrzynski-andrzej-duda-buduje-kapital-polityczny-dla-pis
-- MILLIONS OF POLES GRIT THEIR TEETH IN FURY. AND NOT WITHOUT FUNDAMENTAL REASONS - JAROSŁAW KUISZ IN INTERIA: “Does this sound like a declaration of sowing chaos and discord in the country? And this is concrete. Everything else, like speculation about President Duda’s future ambitions or PiS building another version of the ‘victim of the system’ narrative – is just a waste of time. Simply put, PiS never intended to give up power. The gigantic turnout at the polls thwarted those plans. However, they treat the current situation as temporary – even against the will of the majority of Poles.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-wszystko-po-staremu-czyli-morawiecki-premierem,nId,7134479
-- WITH TUSK, INFANTILISM RETURNS TO THE DEBATE ON POLAND'S DEVELOPMENT - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “So nothing has changed after all. After more than eight years, Donald Tusk has another chance to become prime minister, and again he is trying to impose an unbearable blanket of infantilism on Poland. Everything important – national ambitions, development plans, serious debate about threats – is to be invalidated, pushed to the margins. In the foreground will again be cheap slogans, shallow metaphors, PR tricks, superficial successes, lavishly paid praise in the Western press, back-patting. Tusk is close to the airport, so CPK is not needed. And besides, it's costly and requires significant effort. The latter is probably the most important. To complete the construction, one would have to do something, try, sometimes expose oneself to criticism, clash with certain interests. Why? After all, Poland is to be a small country that doesn't stick its nose out and is content to play in the minor leagues! Our Western neighbors have said this more than once or twice.”
https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/669817-wraz-z-tuskiem-wraca-infantylizm-w-debacie-o-rozwoju-polski
-- MANY POLES FACE BITTER DISAPPOINTMENT, AS MANY BELIEVED THAT AN AMBITIOUS, STRONG, AND EVENLY DEVELOPING POLAND WAS A GIVEN - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “Many Poles face bitter disappointment, as many believed that an ambitious, strong, and evenly developing Poland was a given. That social programs are a given. That VAT and fuel mafias will not come back for their billions. That all this would happen by itself. No one denies the hard work of Poles, but the significance of the framework created by good governments is immense. The class character of the liberals' victory will be quickly felt by working people, ordinary families. Many voted against their own interests, and this will have consequences for them.”
https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/669740-wielu-polakow-zostalo-otumanionych-przez-propagande-iii-rp
-- BIRTHDAYS: Leonard Krasulski, Andrzej Czerwiński.
live
86 min
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Wawer: If PiS Politicians Say Marshal Czarzasty Should Be Recalled Because the US Ambassador Dislikes Him – That's Not a Serious Approach to Governing
82 min
„Shame on the MPs Who Elevated Him to Second Highest Office.” — Bryłka on Czarzasty
3 hours
Kierwiński: We respect alliances. We do not forget honor, pride, and sovereignty
3 hours
„A Necessity for Poland's Security.” — Czarnek Calls for Czarzasty's Resignation
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„In My Opinion, Yes.” — Glapiński on Whether March is a Good Time for an Interest Rate Cut
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Glapiński: All Forecasts Indicate Inflation's Return to Target in Poland is Sustainable
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Glapiński: We Are the Leader in Disinflation
6 hours
„Led to Positive Changes in Historical Polish-Ukrainian Relations.” — Tusk Praises Zelensky's Commitment
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„More Than a Prelude to Practical Cooperation.” — Tusk on the Signed Letter of Intent in Kyiv
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