state of play: 11/07/2023
STATE OF PLAY: Danielewski: Duda Expresses Intent to Lead a Broad Conservative-National Camp in the Future, Gądek: A Nod to the Right-Wing Electorate and PSL
-- HAMAS – WHICH ISRAEL IS FIGHTING – SYSTEMATICALLY USES THE RESIDENTS OF THE GAZA STRIP AS HUMAN SHIELDS; THE MAIN COMMAND BUNKER IS LOCATED, FOR EXAMPLE, UNDER THE LARGEST HOSPITAL – KONSTANTY GEBERT IN GW: “Furthermore, both countries bordering the Gaza Strip – Israel and Egypt – have imposed a blockade, meaning an effective escape for civilians from the battlefield is not possible. In addition, Hamas – which Israel is fighting – systematically uses the residents of the Gaza Strip as human shields, placing its military installations near civilian facilities such as schools and mosques, or even within them: the main command bunker is located, for example, under the largest hospital, Al-Shifa.”
-- BY DENYING ISRAELIS THE RIGHT TO SELF-DEFENSE DUE TO ITS TERRIBLE PRICE, WE WOULD HAVE TO CONSISTENTLY DENY THIS RIGHT TO EVERYONE – KONSTANTY GEBERT CONTINUES IN GW: “By denying Israelis the right to self-defense due to its terrible price, we would have to consistently deny this right to everyone. This, of course, would mean giving free rein to those who murder in acts of aggression, not self-defense – like Hamas around Gaza or Russia in Ukraine, to name only the most recent examples.”
-- SIMPLY A DIFFERENT ATTITUDE OF BOTH SIDES TOWARDS THEIR OWN CIVILIANS. ISRAEL PROTECTS THEM, BUILDING SHELTERS AND ANTI-MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEMS AT GREAT COST – WRITES KONSTANTY GEBERT IN GW: “However, it is entirely possible that Israelis may have committed war crimes in Gaza. Not due to the disproportion in the number of casualties, which simply stems from the different attitudes of both sides towards their own civilians. Israel protects them, building shelters and anti-missile defense systems at great cost. Hamas, on the other hand, has built a network of about 500 km of tunnels under Gaza, which, however, as stated by Hamas Political Bureau member Musa Abu Marzuk, are for the exclusive use of Hamas and its fighters as safe havens and weapons depots. Protecting civilians in Gaza, he explained, is the responsibility of the UN and Israel, not Hamas.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75399,30373333,gaza-rachunki-proporcjonalnosci-i-rachunki-sumienia.html
-- MASTALEREK: IN SPAIN, TUSK'S COLLEAGUE FROM EPL, TO WHOM EVERYONE DENIED FORMING A COALITION, RECEIVED THE MISSION TO FORM A GOVERNMENT – 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/11/07/
-- DUDA EXPRESSES INTENT TO LEAD A BROAD CONSERVATIVE-NATIONAL CAMP IN THE FUTURE – MICHAŁ DANIELEWSKI IN OKO.PRESS: “Duda's decision can also be read as the president's idea for himself after 2025, when he completes his second and final term in office. In this context, his gesture can be interpreted as expressing his will and desire to be the leader of a 'coalition of Polish affairs,' about which he spoke in July 2020 before the second round of presidential elections, after his term ends. This means, de facto, with his decision on Monday, Duda announced his accession to lead a broad conservative-national camp in the future.”
https://oko.press/duda-wskazal-morawieckiego-na-premiera
-- IF HE DECIDED THAT TUSK WOULD BE PRIME MINISTER IN THE FIRST STEP, IT WOULD BE TREATED AS TREACHERY ON THE RIGHT – A PIS POLITICIAN TELLS KAMILA BARANOWSKA IN INTERIA: “– By moving to the opposition, Civic Platform immediately created its founding myth: the street and foreign countries. We also need some cornerstone for this transition to the opposition. Such a concrete exposé and putting others, especially the Third Way, in a situation where they would have to reject it, could be a point of reference for us later – explains our interlocutor. (...) In turn, PiS politicians had no doubt that such a decision would be very risky for President Andrzej Duda. – It would mean the president resigning from his political future on the right. No one on the right would forgive him such a turn of events; it would be treated as treason – says one of the PiS MPs to us. He adds that it would then be easy to build a legend that PiS was one step away from building a majority, and President Andrzej Duda, together with Donald Tusk, prevented it.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/kraj/news-prezydent-stawia-na-mateusza-morawieckiego-musial-tak-zrobic,nId,7132584
-- THE THIRD WAY WILL BE WITH US FOR LONGER – MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “The duo of Szymon Hołownia and Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz has appealed to voters. High support gives them a strong mandate both in coalition arrangements and in the already emerging disputes with the Left on ideological issues.”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art39369771-michal-szuldrzynski-trzecia-droga-zostanie-z-nami-na-dluzej
-- ANDRZEJ DUDA'S DECISION IS NOT SURPRISING. IT IS A NOD TO THE RIGHT-WING ELECTORATE AND PSL – JACEK GĄDEK IN GAZETA.PL: “In turn, the designation of Marek Sawicki from PSL as the senior marshal is a nod towards PSL, and especially towards the conservative wing of the Peasants' Party, of which Sawicki is the informal leader. His designation by Duda appears to be an investment in good relations with the Peasants' Party. Moreover, Andrzej Duda and PSL leader Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz know each other very well, are close in age, and are connected to Krakow. The senior marshal is a prestigious, ceremonial position, but it guarantees attention, though essentially only for one day. It holds no significant weight, but it can serve to build relations with PSL.”
https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,30375381,decyzja-andrzeja-dudy-nie-zaskakuje-to-uklon-wobec-prawicowego.html
-- PROLONGING THE FICTION OF UNCERTAINTY OF POWER CHANGE WORRIES SOME, BUT RATHER BORES ME. HOWEVER, I ALSO SEE SOMETHING COMFORTING IN DUDA'S ADDRESS TODAY – MICHAŁ SUTOWSKI IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “Prolonging the fiction of uncertainty of power change worries some, but rather bores me. However, I also see something comforting in Duda's address today. Instead of emphasizing his separateness from Kaczyński, the president maintains the fiction of the camp's cohesion under the leadership of the former. By protecting the image of future assets, he maintains the remnants of a sense of well-being for the hard core of voters. In the short term, this fiction of cohesion will be a thorn in the side of the new government; in the long term, it will delay the recomposition of the United Right towards something new and more dangerous, as it will be able to reach beyond the hard electorate.”
https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/morawiecki-namaszczony-to-on-straci-na-tym-najwiecej/
-- IF NOT FOR THE COUNTRYSIDE, THE DEMOCRATS WOULD NOT HAVE WON THE ELECTION – ANDRZEJ MACHOWSKI IN GW: “This erosion of PiS foundations is more evident in the countryside. In rural areas, and especially where PiS still dominates, the democrats achieved a great and perhaps unexpected success for themselves. Among the 100 municipalities with the highest increase in votes for democratic parties (the last on this list, Bukowsko municipality in Sanok poviat, is characterized by over a 64% increase in pro-democratic voters), there are only two cities (Sulejówek and Marki), 15 rural-urban municipalities, and 83 rural municipalities. In 67 of these 100 municipalities, PiS gained more support than the democrats, but Kaczyński has little to celebrate here. It is enough to compare three values: in these 100 municipalities, the average increase in the number of voters was +26%. Only democrats benefited from this growth: the number of pro-democratic voters in these municipalities increased by an average of 74%, while the number of PiS voters decreased by an average of 1%.”
-- THE GOOD RESULT OF TD IN THE RECENT ELECTION IS ALSO TO SOME EXTENT THE EFFECT OF "ELECTORAL RESCUE," WHICH MANY PRO-DEMOCRATIC VOTERS DECIDED TO EMBARK ON – MACHOWSKI CONTINUES IN GW: “It should also be added that the very good result of TD in the recent election is also to some extent the effect of 'electoral rescue,' which many pro-democratic voters decided on out of fear that TD would not cross the 8% threshold. In the democratic camp, however, the party of high losses (-20% of voters) turned out to be the Left. It lost more among men (-32%) than women (-10%), and the only significant increase in voters was recorded among the youngest voters (+24%).”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,30373063,kto-dal-demokratom-zwyciestwo.html
-- NO MAJOR CHANGES COMPARED TO THE ELECTIONS IN THE PARTY POLL, EXCEPT FOR REDUCED MOBILIZATION – RZ: https://www.rp.pl/wybory/art39369721-pierwszy-sondaz-partyjny-po-wyborach-pis-na-czele-spada-mobilizacja
-- KACZYŃSKI'S PARTY MAY RETURN TO POWER. RUMORS OF ITS DEATH ARE GREATLY EXAGGERATED – JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: “Theoretically, PiS will be substantive opposition; practically, it will be total opposition. The party will want to show that during their rule, there was money for everything, and under Tusk's rule, people have to tighten their belts, and the new government gives Poles nothing. In the media, PiS is still strong and has its propaganda mouthpieces. The election campaign has not ended; it will enter another phase after November 13. And even earlier, because on November 10 – on the eve of Independence Day – PiS will organize its own ceremonies, presenting itself as the only patriotic group. Does Donald Tusk, busy forming a coalition, know what Kaczyński is preparing for him? Because talking about the legalization of PiS is as credible as claiming that PiS is coming to an end.”
https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art39369731-jacek-nizinkiewicz-pogloski-o-koncu-pis-sa-przesadzone
-- THE WORST THING TO DO NOW IS TO CHANGE THE RULES FOR RECEIVING 500+ IN A WAY THAT REINSTATES THE SOCIAL STIGMATIZATION OF PEOPLE RECEIVING IT – PIOTR WÓJCIK IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “The worst thing to do is to limit the benefit payment only to the working. The Third Way proposes this, which is not surprising, as it is a true forge of very foolish ideas. In this way, people losing their jobs would receive a second blow in the form of losing the benefit for children. Such a change would radically lower the negotiating position of employees with children, as losing their job would also result in the loss of the benefit. This idea is also simply populist – it preys on the existing societal belief that monetary transfers finance 'slackers.' And this is simply untrue.”
https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/co-dalej-z-500-plus/
-- BIRTHDAYS: Krzysztof Kilian turns 65, Robert Kwiatkowski, Marcin Zaborski, Anna Gembicka, Anita Błochowiak.
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state of play
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