state of play: 11/04/2023
POLITICAL GAME: Wielowieyska: Mastalerek has a plan for the right's new life, Morawiecki: I can count. But perhaps when we present the risks and opportunities, we will gain the support of new MPs
-- WHO SAID ABOUT THE INVESTIGATIVE COMMITTEE: "I can appear, sing, and dance, but what for?" -- RESOLUTION AT THE END OF THE POLITICAL GAME.
-- TWO DEPUTY PRIME MINISTERS: KOSINIAK IN THE MINISTRY OF NATIONAL DEFENCE AND GAWKOWSKI WITH DIGITALIZATION - IWONA SZPALA AND JUSTYNA DOBROSZ-ORACZ IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “Proposals for the division of ministries are also known. The Civic Coalition is interested in the Ministry of Interior and Administration, as well as the ministries of Justice, State Assets, Finance, Health, and Culture. – The Ministry of Education and Science will most likely be divided into two. We are confirming whether this is possible without changing the so-called Act on Government Administration Departments – explains our source from the opposition.”
-- MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS FOR HOŁOWNIA - WRITTEN BY GAZETA WYBORCZA AUTHORS: “The Peasants' Party – besides the Ministry of National Defence – is to receive Infrastructure and Agriculture, while Hołownia's party will get Climate and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The Left, apart from digitalization, will receive Social Affairs.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,30368792,znamy-wstepny-podzial-ministerstw-w-rzadzie-tuska-bedzie-duzo.html
-- KACZYŃSKI WANTED TO GET RID OF MASTALEREK, CUT HIM OFF FROM THE FUTURE GOVERNMENT, BECAUSE SZYDŁO WAS TO BE COMPLETELY SUBORDINATED - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “However, some time later, Kaczyński realized that although Szydło was initially very compliant and listened attentively to the party leader, after her candidacy was announced, she began to assert herself. She questioned this, debated that. Kaczyński became concerned and began to investigate who was behind it, who was inciting this Beata. Political marketers Anna Plakwicz and Piotr Matczuk, as well as Mastalerek, played key roles in Duda's campaign staff. The party leader realized that he was the one pushing the future prime minister to show independence. That is why Kaczyński preferred to get rid of Mastalerek, to cut him off from the future government, because Szydło was to be completely subordinate to Nowogrodzka [PiS headquarters] and the party leader did not want anyone to build an alternative center of power within his camp.”
-- HOWEVER, THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT DUDA'S VICTORIOUS CAMPAIGN IS THANKS TO MASTALEREK - WIELOWIEYSKA CONTINUES: “However, there is no doubt that Duda's victorious campaign is thanks to Mastalerek. He was its main organizer, and Beata Szydło, the formal head of the campaign staff, gave the operation a face. Many people in PiS consider the head of the president's chancellery to be an exceptionally intelligent and capable person. But that's not the only reason the president has kept him by his side for years.”
-- DUDA AND MASTALEREK ARE ALSO UNITED BY THE FACT THAT KACZYŃSKI SIMPLY DOES NOT LIKE THEM - WIELOWIEYSKA WRITES IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “But it's not just about Mastalerek always being loyal. Duda and Mastalerek are also united by the fact that Kaczyński simply does not like them.”
-- THEY SUSPECT THAT MASTALEREK WANTS DUDA TO COMPETE FOR LEADERSHIP IN PIŠ AFTER HIS TERM ENDS - WIELOWIEYSKA CONTINUES: “Some of my interlocutors suspect that Mastalerek wants Duda to compete for leadership in PiS after his term ends. And then he will effectively rule everything and call the shots. Because Duda himself is not well-suited to be a party leader; he lacks the knack for working with the party apparatus. He would certainly feel more comfortable in some even not very prominent international position. But even if Mastalerek has such plans, sending Kaczyński into retirement was a political mistake. The party leader has the status of a saint in his camp since the Smolensk catastrophe; power cannot be seized without his blessing, and if someone attacks him, they have no chance.”
-- IN THE EVENT THAT TUSK'S GOVERNMENT COLLAPSES, DUDA COULD BE THE MIDWIFE OF SUCH A NEW COALITION - WIELOWIEYSKA CLAIMS IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “But recently, there has been a change in narrative: according to Mastalerek's vision, the president is tasked with working on good relations between PiS, Konfederacja, and PSL. In the event that Tusk's government collapses, Duda could be the midwife of such a new coalition. For now, the Presidential Palace will play at supporting PSL in all matters where the Peasants' Party has a different opinion than Tusk. The goal is to drive a wedge into the democratic coalition. For this reason, the hypothesis emerged that Duda would announce that he would most gladly nominate Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz for prime minister.”
https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,30357125,dal-wygrana-dudzie-wymyslil-premier-szydlo-nie-odebral-telefonu.html
-- THERE WAS NO GRAND RETURN ON A WHITE HORSE - SAYS PRIME MINISTER MATEUSZ MORAWIECKI IN AN INTERVIEW WITH PIOTR WITWICKI AND MARCIN FIOŁEK IN INTERIA: “Law and Justice achieved the best result. We have almost eight million votes, and our main competitors from the Civic Coalition achieved a result at the level of Rafał Trzaskowski from the first round in 2020. There was no grand return on a white horse.”
-- WE HAVE HUGE HOPE AND A CHANCE FOR THE FUTURE TO RELY ON THE 11 MILLION PEOPLE WHO VOTED IN THE REFERENDUM - MORAWIECKI TELLS FIOŁEK AND WITWICKI: “I know the history of King Pyrrhus's Battle of Asculum, but to get back to our politics: we have huge hope and a chance for the future to rely on the 11 million people who voted in the referendum. These are people who share our view of reality and, although they probably voted to some extent for Konfederacja or Trzecia Droga, they have a similar contemplation of Poland to ours, as well as a similar understanding of the threats we face as a society. I thank everyone who trusted us after years of pandemics, war, and crises – we need to roll up our sleeves and get to work for a better Poland. Poles decided that we achieved the highest result. At the same time, they said: this time you must find a coalition partner. We are obliged to undertake such an attempt.”
-- I AM NOT PACKED UP. I DEEPLY BELIEVE THAT WE WILL MANAGE TO SPEAK TO THOSE MPS FROM OTHER FORMATIONS - PROBABLY EXCEPT FOR CIVIC COALITION - FOR WHOM SOVEREIGNTY IS IMPORTANT - MORAWIECKI TELLS FIOŁEK AND WITWICKI: “I am not packed up. I deeply believe that we will manage to speak to those MPs from other formations – probably except for Civic Coalition – for whom sovereignty is important. A good example is the legislation currently going through the European Parliament. We want to appeal to those people for whom the issues raised in the referendum are important.”
-- THE OPPOSITION IS TRYING TO AGREE - I SEE IT, I NOTICE IT, AND I CAN COUNT. BUT PERHAPS WHEN WE PRESENT THE RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES, WE WILL GAIN THE SUPPORT OF NEW MPS - MORAWIECKI CONTINUES IN INTERIA: “First of all, I want to appeal to those MPs from Trzecia Droga, Konfederacja, and other clubs who are close to the social program, sovereignty, and the issue of fighting illegal migration. We will see how many such righteous individuals will be among the opposition MPs. But gentlemen, let's be honest – there was no electoral committee called 'Opposition'. PiS won the elections. The opposition is trying to agree – I see it, I notice it, and I can count. But perhaps when we present the risks and opportunities, we will gain the support of new MPs.”
-- IF NOT TODAY, THEN TOMORROW - MORAWIECKI CONTINUES IN INTERIA: “There will certainly be significant cracks in what is currently called the opposition – due to different views on promises, sovereignty, and security. Today, as never before – Poland needs a government characterized not by a white, but a white-and-red flag. The more cracks and inconsistencies on the opposition's side, the more MPs there will be among these dozen or so parties ready to cooperate with us. If not today, then tomorrow.”
-- MORAWIECKI WHEN ASKED IF HE IMAGINES A SITUATION WHERE HE IS IN A GOVERNMENT HEADED BY KOSINIAK-KAMYSZ: “- Yes. Is that a serious proposal? – For today, we have a proposal that the party that won the elections should be able to form a government. If that fails, other proposals will emerge.”
-- I WILL ANSWER DIRECTLY: I HAVE ALWAYS BEEN A PROPONENT OF THE ABORTION COMPROMISE FROM 30 YEARS AGO, THE MOTION TO THE CONSTITUTIONAL TRIBUNAL ON THIS MATTER WAS A MISTAKE - MORAWIECKI STATES IN AN INTERVIEW WITH FIOŁEK AND WITWICKI: “Certainly, there were many stumbles in our actions. And we spoke about it clearly before the elections as well. Regarding abortion, I will answer you directly: I have always been a proponent of the abortion compromise from 30 years ago. At the same time – based on the provisions of the constitution, it was difficult to imagine a different verdict, given that such a motion was filed. – The motion to the Constitutional Tribunal on this matter was a mistake. However, the Constitutional Tribunal, relying on the Polish constitution, could not issue a different verdict.”
-- IT WAS ELECTORAL FRAUD. BUT SOCIETY WILL MONITOR AND HOLD ACCOUNTABLE - MORAWIECKI SAYS IN INTERIA: “Anyone with a modicum of goodwill knows that regardless of, I repeat: regardless of the type of fund or budget category, everything ultimately lands in one pot called: public debt. That is why financial markets were and are calm. Because they saw our fiscal policy, our financial policy. And the opposition raged that we were doing well and tried to see a splinter in our eye, forgetting the beam in our own. – The whole point of this matter is that the opposition wants to withdraw from its election promises and justify this withdrawal through such number juggling. Soon it will turn out that the tax-free amount cannot be increased, that voluntary social security cannot be implemented, that 'grandmother's benefit' will not be introduced, there will be no zero-percent loan, etc. Why? Because it was electoral fraud. But society will monitor and hold them accountable. Hence the panic in their eyes and the resort to Jerzy Urban's methods.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/tylko-w-interii/news-mateusz-morawiecki-nie-jestem-spakowany-licze-na-przekonanie,nId,7128747
-- THE "RAZEMOWCY" WRITING IN THESE CULTURAL SECTIONS ARE NOT INTERESTED IN FILM, BUT WHETHER A DIRECTOR OR ACTOR MOLESTED SOMEONE - CEZARY MICHALSKI IN INTERIA: "Razemowcy" writing in these cultural sections are not interested in film, but whether a director or actor molested someone. They are not interested in theatre, but whether a director or actor mobbed someone. They are not interested in literature, but whether the author of a given book adheres to the most stringent standards of political correctness, even if these standards were set dozens or hundreds of years after these authors wrote their most important works.”
-- THE POLISH SCHOOL SYSTEM WILL NOT WITHSTAND THE CHANGE OF SWAPPING TOP-DOWN SUPPRESSION OF RAINBOW FRIDAYS FOR TOP-DOWN PROMOTION OF RAINBOW FRIDAYS - MICHALSKI CONTINUES IN INTERIA: “The Polish school system has financial and organizational demands, and the democratic opposition has promised the Polish school a lot in this area. However, after the extremely right-wing Czarnk, an extremely left-wing Anti-Czarnk would be the worst. The Polish school system will not withstand the change of swapping top-down suppression of rainbow Fridays for top-down promotion of rainbow Fridays. (...) Let them flourish in every specific school where teachers, parents agree, where students desire it. It will be different in different schools, in different regions. Freedom is enough, freedom will be managed as it can be in Poland. From the state, the school needs more money, better teachers. These "razemki" will not provide that to the school.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-moje-nadzieje-zwiazane-z-ministerstwem-cyfryzacji,nId,7126602
-- THE COALITION IS NOT UNIFIED, THEREFORE IT WILL WEAR OUT DURING THE TERM. THE LEFT WILL CONSTANTLY TALK ABOUT SOCIAL ISSUES, AND THE SITUATION WHERE NOTHING CAN BE DONE ABOUT THEM FOR A YEAR AND A HALF WILL BE EXTREMELY FRUSTRATING FOR THEM - ANDRZEJ ANUSZ IN AN INTERVIEW WITH ELIZA OLCZYK IN RZECZPOSPOLITA: “But there is an even more serious matter – because the coalition is not unified, it will wear out during the term. The Left will constantly talk about social issues, and the situation where nothing can be done about them for a year and a half will be extremely frustrating for them. Other parties also have such issues. And finally, the government will have a very strong opposition in the form of PiS, just as AWS had a very strong opposition in the form of SLD. Incidentally, the Alliance narrowly missed winning the elections in 1997.”
-- POLITICS WILL RETURN TO THE SEJM. VARIOUS COALITIONS WILL HAVE TO BE FORMED AGAIN FOR SPECIFIC MATTERS - ANUSZ CONTINUES WITH OLCZYK IN RZECZPOSPOLITA: “And returning to the new coalition, it will be very diverse. On the one hand, I am happy about that, because politics will return to the Sejm. Various coalitions will have to be formed again for specific matters. Sometimes the divisions will cut across party lines. On the other hand, until the presidential elections, we will observe positional warfare. With a strong PiS, entrenched constitutional institutions – the National Bank of Poland, the Constitutional Tribunal, etc. – and a president from the opposing camp against them, the ruling party will have a really hard time. Therefore, the presidential elections will decide everything. If a candidate from today's opposition wins, the government will have significantly greater opportunities to consolidate its power in the state.”
https://www.rp.pl/plus-minus/art39354181-dr-andrzej-anusz-rozegra-sie-krwawa-wojna-o-media
-- GERMANY MUST LEARN WHAT THE THIRD REICH DID TO POLAND - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZECZPOSPOLITA: “It also depends on the new coalition that takes power. It has a much better PR in Germany than PiS. Conducting a campaign in Germany to make Poles' point of view and committed crimes understood will have a different impact if done by a centrist-liberal government. Silence about history will not help. Reconciliation will not be built on Germans' lack of awareness of what the Third Reich did to Poland's non-Jewish war victims.”
https://www.rp.pl/plus-minus/art39354391-michal-szuldrzynski-niemcy-musza-dowiedziec-sie-co-polsce-zrobila-iii-rzesza
-- THIS IS A BIG QUESTION FOR DONALD TUSK: HOW DOES HE INTEND TO COMPENSATE LOCAL GOVERNMENTS FOR THE FURTHER INCREASE IN THE TAX-FREE AMOUNT? - PROF. ANTONI DUDEK IN AN INTERVIEW WITH MICHAŁ SUTOWSKI IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “This is a big question for Donald Tusk: how does he intend to compensate local governments for the further increase in the tax-free amount? After all, it will kill most of their own revenues, which have already plummeted after PiS increased it. And they must receive such compensation, some other type of own revenues, otherwise they simply won't be local governments. In my opinion, PiS's idea for a third term was that only now would we sort out local governments, because due to the changes introduced by Polski Ład, they would all line up at the ministers' offices for money. The president or mayor can be from the opposition, but nothing works unless our minister gives them money. And this would be a return in practice to the 1990s, to the time when there were no local governments above the municipality level, which practically had no own revenues, but lived on subsidies. Development only occurred after Buzek's reform, when local government units received a portion of PIT revenue.”
-- COHABITATION HAS JUST BEGUN AND THERE WILL BE NO AGREEMENT WITH DUDA - DUDEK CONTINUES WITH SUTOWSKI: “Cohabitation has just begun and there will be no agreement with Duda. The only question is whether this war will be total or just normal, but it will be. Secondly, there is the unfortunate tribunal, which the government will also have to do something about, and then a few smaller centers like television or the National Bank of Poland.”
-- IN MY OPINION, NO OTHER POLITICIAN FROM THE CURRENT TEAM WILL HAVE A MAJORITY FOR THE REVOCATION OF THAT IMMUNITY AS QUICKLY AS ZIOBRO - DUDEK TELLS SUTOWSKI: “Because if any prosecutor dares to charge Ziobro, I suspect the court will very quickly request the revocation of his immunity. And in my opinion, no other politician from the current team will have a majority for the revocation of that immunity as quickly as Ziobro. And then he might share the fate of MP Andrzej Pęczak from the twilight of the SLD government. He was the first MP of the Third Polish Republic to serve the last year of his term from a pre-trial detention center on Smutna Street in Łódź, because his immunity was revoked.”
-- IN SHORT, THEY WILL WATCH EACH OTHER'S HANDS, AND IT WON'T BE EASY FOR TUSK - DUDEK ADDS IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA WITH SUTOWSKI: “In short, they will watch each other's hands, and it won't be easy for Tusk. Necessarily, there is no slightest chance of ruling in the Kaczyński style. Because he simply took advantage of an extraordinary conjuncture, a confluence of many circumstances, and even then that power was in his hands for a moment. What's more, Kaczyński himself says in several interviews that he would like to have the kind of power attributed to him, but he doesn't have it.”
https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/antoni-dudek-o-rzadach-pis-i-wyniku-wyborow/
-- 20 YEARS AGO, President Kwaśniewski refused to appear before a Sejm investigative committee examining the Rywin affair.
-- REFUSING TO APPEAR BEFORE THE RYWIN COMMITTEE, KWAŚNIEWSKI SAID: "I can appear, sing, and dance, but what for?"
-- 8 YEARS AGO, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz became the leader of PSL.
-- BIRTHDAYS: Hanna Gronkiewicz-Waltz (turns 71), Tadeusz Fiszbach, Wojciech Czuchnowski, Sławomir Sierakowski (44!), Jadwiga Zakrzewska, Katarzyna Pawlak-Mucha. SUNDAY: Piotr Wierzbicki (88), Marek Dietl, Marcin Bosacki, Grażyna Kulczyk, Elżbieta Płonka.
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Wawer: If PiS Politicians Say Marshal Czarzasty Should Be Recalled Because the US Ambassador Dislikes Him – That's Not a Serious Approach to Governing
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