state of play: 11/03/2023

STATE OF PLAY: Matyja: Toxic, emotional reactions to everything led me to stay silent for the past two years, to not comment on current events; Danielewski: If the president respects the clear verdict, Tusk's government by December 11th at the latest

Łukasz Mężyk

-- HOŁOWNIA: KOSINIAK-KAMYSZ SHOULD BE A STRONG DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER IN TUSK'S GOVERNMENT, CANDIDATE FOR DEFENSE MINISTER IS EXCELLENT, BUT NO DECISION YET - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/11/03/ -- IF PRESIDENT DUDA RESPECTS THE CLEAR VERDICT OF THE VOTERS, TUSK'S GOVERNMENT WILL BE FORMED BY DECEMBER 11TH AT THE LATEST; HOWEVER, IF THE PRESIDENT IN THE FIRST STEP APPOINTS SOMEONE WHO HAS NO CHANCE OF GAINING A MAJORITY, THEN BY DECEMBER 23RD AT THE LATEST - MICHAŁ DANIELEWSKI IN OKO.PRESS: “Within 14 days of that date, the president must appoint a prime minister and entrust them with the mission of forming a government, and the new head of government will then have 14 days to secure a vote of confidence from the Sejm. Therefore, if President Duda respects the clear verdict of the voters who elected a new parliamentary majority on October 15th, Donald Tusk's government will be formed by December 11th at the latest. However, if the president in the first step appoints someone who has no chance of gaining a majority (e.g., Mateusz Morawiecki) as prime minister, the entire process will be extended by two weeks, as KO, Trzecia Droga, and Lewica will have to wait for the initiative of forming a government to pass to the Sejm. Then Tusk's government will be formed by December 23rd at the latest (in practice, because the theoretical deadline is two days longer, but politicians will certainly want to finish before Christmas).” -- TWO DEPUTY PRIME MINISTERS - CONTINUES DANIELEWSKI IN OKO: “The first is expected to be the head of PSL, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, who will also head one of two ministries – economy or national defense. The second deputy prime minister will likely be Krzysztof Gawkowski from Lewica (in the outgoing term, leader of this formation's parliamentary club), who, according to media leaks, is to take over the Ministry of Digitization.” https://oko.press/kiedy-rzad-tuska-kto-marszalkiem-co-zrobi-duda -- WE MUST FIRST REBUILD SENSIBLE POLITICAL LIFE, WHICH MEANS LEARNING TO FUNCTION IN VARIOUS VARIANTS OF COMPROMISE, NOT JUST MORAL REJECTION OR ENTHUSIASTIC ACCEPTANCE - PROF. RAFAŁ MATYJA IN CONVERSATION WITH JAKUB MAJMUREK IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: ”We must first rebuild sensible political life, which means learning to function in various variants of compromise, not just moral rejection or enthusiastic acceptance. This will be a very difficult moment, not just for the political elite. Because the PiS governments have taught us something I would call moral maximalism. It was often useful as a motive for resistance, but democratic politics cannot be constructed that way, as everyone will kill each other.” -- SO TOXIC THAT IT LED ME TO STAY SILENT FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS, TO NOT COMMENT ON CURRENT EVENTS - CONTINUES MATYJA: ”Rather, it's because for years PiS has forced very emotional reactions from the opposition, which in their main current, especially at the beginning, were directed precisely against PiS, but then took on a very toxic shape. So toxic that it led me to refrain from speaking for the past two years, to not comment on current events, which became mainly a consideration of the moral characteristics of this or that opposition politician. The same happened with the one electoral list, and during the campaign, we had a spectacle of accusations against 'symetrists' who support authoritarian rule.” -- THE ESCALATION OF PRINCIPALISM WAS NATURAL, SOMETIMES JUSTIFIED AS A REACTION TO WHAT PIS IS DOING TO THE STATE. BUT WHEN IT ENTERED THE BASIC SET OF REACTIONS TOO MUCH, IT TURNED AGAINST EVERYONE - CONTINUES MATYJA AT MAJMUREK'S: ”This is about serious acceptance of pluralism, which must be rooted in commentary, in the attitude of experts. We cannot look at politics as a set of moral goals to be achieved, where even a delay in their realization means the end of the world and breaking off discussions. The transition from sharp confrontation politics with PiS to politics that is pluralistic by nature will be extremely difficult, although I see it as a return to normality, whose elements include conflict, difference of opinion, and the necessity of tolerating differences of opinion within one party, one formation, one ruling coalition. Escalation of principalism will not serve this. I repeat, it was natural, sometimes justified as a reaction to what PiS is doing to the state. But when it entered the basic set of reactions too much, it turned against everyone.” -- ON THE ISSUE OF PREVENTING PIS'S RETURN, TUSK WILL BE READY FOR MANY CONCESSIONS AND PRAGMATIC MOVES - MATYJA TELLS MAJMUREK: “I am convinced that on the issue of preventing PiS's return, he will be ready for many concessions and pragmatic moves. Moreover, various statements and behaviors during the campaign showed his ability to revise views and beliefs, although it is unknown whether his style and personal character will change. The latter would be the most difficult, but here too he will play according to what his coalition partners allow.” -- DUDA WILL CHOOSE A MORE COMPROMISING PATH ON MATTERS UNNECESSARY FOR HIS ELECTORATE - CONTINUES MATYJA: “There are things that suggest Duda will choose a more compromising path on matters that are not essential to his electorate. Of course, he is part of that political camp, and he is very dependent on its rhetoric, but he has behaved off-script in various situations. At the same time, we may be dealing with a partial decomposition of this camp, because Jarosław Kaczyński, who will not be in power, without all the tools and a good idea for how to exit the situation after a loss, will not be listened to as much as before. And this, in turn, is an opportunity for Andrzej Duda to fight for some form of leadership on the right.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/matyja-funkcjonowanie-panstwa-po-wyborach/ -- IN EIGHT YEARS OF ANTI-PIS RHETORIC, A MILLION END-OF-THE-WORLD SCENARIOS HAVE BEEN ANNOUNCED. NONE HAVE OCCURRED - RAFAŁ WOŚ IN INTERIA: “This mechanism repeats itself over and over. Today, it returns in the form of the narrative about the 'Morawiecki hole.' According to which PiS is allegedly leaving behind ruined public finances. There is no hard evidence for this – public debt, calculated as it should be (and as it is calculated in the EU) relative to current GDP – is within the norm. It is less than 50%. This means it is lower than 10 years ago in 2013 (then it was 57% of GDP). Also, compared to other EU countries, there is little reason for concern – the EU average debt is currently 80% of GDP. However, it is impossible to break through with this message to certain media. Because there, the spinning of stories about the 'Morawiecki hole' continues. Conveniently, now. And when it is no longer needed in a few months, it will simply pass to other matters. Just like the topic of inflation, which was supposed to reach tens of percent by now. Or the death of democracy, which was supposed to mean that the opposition would never have a majority again.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-w-osiem-lat-antypis-obwiescil-milion-koncow-swiata-nie-zdarz,nId,7124755 -- MINISTER CZARNEK TRIED TO TURN SCHOOL INTO AN IDEOLOGIZED INSTITUTION. DID HE SUCCEED IN RAISING EVEN A SINGLE PATRIOTICALLY-RIGHT-WING ORIENTED GRADUATING CLASS AS A RESULT? - KATARZYNA SKRZYDŁOWSKA-KALUKIN IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “Minister Przemysław Czarnek tried to turn school into an ideologized institution. Did he succeed in raising even a single patriotically-right-wing oriented graduating class as a result? This is a question about the effectiveness of schools in instilling certain values in children and youth. Reading 'Stones on the Battlefield' does not make one love the homeland more. The effectiveness of influencing youth with values is limited and depends on whether the youth accept this influence as their own. Therefore, fears about the sexualization of children in sex education classes may turn out to be excessive, especially when what is called 'sexualization' is rampant on Instagram.” -- IF WE REPLACE THE CONDITION OF INDIFFERENCE WITH THE CONDITION OF DIVERSITY, POLITICAL SHOCKS WILL NOT BE SO FELT - CONTINUES SKRZYDŁOWSKA-KALUKIN IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “One more thing remains – ministries are run by politicians, the Ministry of Education too. They will always represent some option. So this will always raise fears among some parents who will not agree with the current political option at the head of the ministry. However, if we replace the somewhat difficult to define and not very realistic in practice, precisely because of the political leadership of the Ministry of Education, condition of indifference with the condition of diversity, the political shocks will not be so keenly felt.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2023/11/02/skrzydlowska-kalukin-czy-dziecko-konserwatywnego-katolika-ucierpi-gdy-ministrem-edukacji-bedzie-ktos-z-lewicy/ -- THE COMMISSION WAS CLEARLY ESTABLISHED TO DIVERT ATTENTION FROM THE REAL KREMLIN INFLUENCES AND TO RIDICULE THE MATTER SO MUCH THAT NO SERIOUS PERSON WOULD WANT TO DEAL WITH IT ANYMORE - JACEK ŻAKOWSKI IN GW: “The problem of Russian influences and agents is of dangerous scale in Poland. Especially in the circles of Zjednoczona Prawica, the best confirmation of which is this commission, clearly established to divert attention from the real influences of the Kremlin and to ridicule the matter so much that no serious person would want to deal with it anymore. If Russian influences could lead to the creation of the Cenckiewicz commission by the Sejm and the president, then it must be assumed that they could have also done so in other matters. This will have to be thoroughly investigated and revealed so that agents do not come to power again.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30365314,niech-komisja-badajaca-wplywy-kremla-przeswietli-odchodzaca.html -- I WILL FEEL JOY ABOUT THE ELECTION VICTORY ONLY WHEN THE DEPORTATIONS END - KATARZYNA PRZYBORSKA IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “Polish services should save human lives because the Polish state is responsible for persons within its territory. I will breathe a sigh of relief only when they start tracking criminals, not people on the move, and stop persecuting activists who show newcomers that there are still people in this heartless country.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/radosc-z-wygranych-wyborow-poczuje-dopiero-gdy-nastapi-koniec-wywozek/ -- FOR THE FIRST TIME AGAIN IN RECENT HISTORY, POLAND HAS EARNED MERIT FOR THE WORLD. IT SHOWED THAT NATIONALISM AND POPULISM, PREYING ON IGNORANCE, HATRED, AND FANATICISM, CAN BE DEFEATED IN ELECTIONS, EVEN UNFAIR ONES - STEFAN NIESIOŁOWSKI IN GW: “I celebrate three anniversaries: my personal one on September 24, 1974, when I was released from prison in Barczewo after four years and three months, June 4, 1989, and now the continuously ongoing joy of October 15, 2023 – an electoral victory over dictatorship, a great, joyous day. Mr. Duda's antics or Mr. Morawiecki's next pathetic lies about his supposed talks with the opposition will not change this. The festival of lies broadcast in regime media, which they themselves probably believed, will end sooner or later. Nothing will change the verdict that society has passed on the PiS authoritarian regime.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30365362,kolejny-polski-cud-wolnosci-a-d-2023.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Adam Gawęda.

Łukasz Mężyk