state of play: 10/30/2023

ELECTION STATE: Kołodziejczak: We must realize that abortion is an obstacle to expanding the rural electorate, Sawczuk: If PiS had passed civil partnerships and not touched abortion law, they might have ruled forever

Łukasz Mężyk

-- THERE IS NO SYMMETRY BETWEEN HAMAS AND ISRAEL - KONSTANTY GEBERT IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “Well, but knowing all this, shouldn't Israel simply give up attacking Gaza or only attack targets not located near civilian objects? After all, as one of the pro-Palestinian protest slogans goes, ‘a dead Palestinian child will not resurrect a dead Jewish child’. It will not resurrect them, but this is about those Jewish children who are still alive and who, according to declarations, will become targets of Hamas attacks if this organization is not defeated. If Israel were to abandon or limit attacks on Hamas, it would mean it has decided to protect the enemy's civilian population more than its own. It is truly difficult to expect this.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2023/10/24/nie-ma-symetrii-miedzy-hamasem-a-izraelem/ *** -- TWO YEARS AGO THE PEAK OF THE 4TH WAVE OF THE PANDEMIC OCCURRED. -- TWO YEARS AGO AGNIESZKA KUBLIK WROTE IN GW ABOUT THE SECOND SHOCK TO PI'S RATINGS: “THE SECOND SUCH SHOCK SINCE THE ELECTIONS - AGNIESZKA KUBLIK ON THE CBOS SURVEY: “In the latest CBOS poll, PiS is below the 30 percent threshold. In just two weeks, support for the ruling party has dropped by as much as 7 percentage points. In CBOS measurements, this is the second most significant drop in the ruling party's ratings since the 2019 parliamentary elections. The first occurred last autumn, after the ruling by the Constitutional Tribunal of Julia Przyłębska, which tightened Polish anti-abortion law. At that time, PiS lost 9 percentage points in two weeks – the ratings of Jarosław Kaczyński's party fell from 40 to 31 percent.” -- TWO YEARS AGO DONALD TUSK: “-- ACCORDING TO POLLS, THE OPPOSITION'S LEAD OVER PIS AND KONFEDERACJA IS A FEW PERCENT, DESPITE SUCH AN AGGRESSIVE CAMPAIGN IN ALL GOVERNMENT MEDIA. I AM CONVINCED WE WILL WIN THESE ELECTIONS, DESPITE PIS'S GIGANTIC LOGISTICAL ADVANTAGE - TUSK TELLS STANKIEWICZ AND BRONIATOWSKI: “Without getting excited about any polls, one conclusion can be drawn today – it is moderately but unequivocally optimistic. In the last parliamentary elections, PiS, together with Konfederacja, had just over 50 percent, and the entire democratic opposition about 48. Today, these proportions are exactly the opposite – according to polls, the opposition's lead over PiS and Konfederacja is a few percent, despite such an aggressive campaign in all government media. I am convinced that we will win these elections, despite PiS's gigantic logistical advantage.” https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/donald-tusk-dla-onetu-zaglosuje-za-trybunalem-stanu-dla-kaczynskiego-i-dudy/yseefpc,79cfc278 *** -- PETRU: RETURNING TO THE PREVIOUS HEALTH CONTRIBUTION AND CLEANING UP AFTER THE POLISH DEAL IS ACHIEVABLE IN 2024 - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/10/30/ -- ARE PI VOTERS "A HORDE OF MONKEYS"? IS THIS THE LANGUAGE OF ENLIGHTENED ELITES? - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW ON JAROSŁAW BRATKIEWICZ'S TEXT, PUBLISHED IN THE NEWSPAPER OVER THE WEEKEND: “Today, the democratic opposition won the elections. This is a good moment to fight for at least a slight filling of the trenches that Jarosław Kaczyński has been digging for many years. But to do this, one must understand that the PiS electorate is diverse, and it is worth focusing on calm dialogue rather than falling into rhetoric that aims to humiliate the defeated. Of course, Jarosław Bratkiewicz has every right to respond sharply to people who insult him online, he has the right to denounce meanness. But does he have to lump everyone together?” -- HE SHOULD NOT BE OFFENDED BY PI VOTERS AND EXPRESS CONTEMPT TOWARDS THEM. HE MUST TALK, AND IN A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT LANGUAGE THAN THE ONE JAROSŁAW BRATKIEWICZ USES - WIELOWIEYSKA FURTHER IN GW: “This is precisely the best moment to think about it. Democratic, patriotic, open to the world, creative Poland has won these elections. It must put the country on new tracks. But let it not be offended by PiS voters and express contempt towards them. It must talk, and in a completely different language than the one Jarosław Bratkiewicz uses. Many PiS voters are sincere patriots, attached to tradition and religion. Many of them, along with opposition voters, took part in an incredible mobilization to help refugees from Ukraine. This surge of civil society is a good foundation and an example of civic cooperation regardless of political views.” https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,30350350,wielowieyska-wyborcy-pis-to-malpoludzia-czereda-to-jest.html -- IT IS WORTH WAITING TWO WEEKS FOR THIS. IN 1989, ONLY WHEN GENERAL CZESŁAW KISZCZAK RESIGNED FROM THE MISSION OF FORMING A GOVERNMENT WAS IT CLEAR THAT COMMUNISM HAD TRULY LOST - PAWEŁ WROŃSKI IN GW: “It is difficult not to notice a masochistic streak in Mateusz Morawiecki, which prompted him to become the face of his party's campaign, to utter absurdities with a stony face that he himself probably doesn't believe, to lose, and finally to announce victory to the world. Since the prime minister wants to undergo another parliamentary verification, it is worth waiting for him and – most importantly – for the Law and Justice electorate to realize that PiS has truly lost. In the Sejm, there must be a vote in which PiS lacks the votes to govern. It is worth waiting two weeks for this. In 1989, only when General Czesław Kiszczak resigned from the mission of forming a government was it clear that communism had truly lost and it was time for Tadeusz Mazowiecki's government.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,30351576,morawiecki-i-pis-musza-przegrac-do-konca.html -- PIS DOES NOT WANT TO GO INTO OPPOSITION. IT PREFERS TO GO UNDERGROUND - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “All of this looks like a legend forming a narrative about PiS as a victim of a powerful conspiracy by liberal and leftist circles, paid for from abroad, who want to take away Poland's freedom and sovereignty, subordinate it to the interests of our enemies. And they only pretend to be patriots, but in reality, they sincerely hate Poland. This means that PiS does not want to go into opposition at all. It intends to go underground. After eight years of sole power, which it did not have to share with anyone, PiS will once again compare itself to the Cursed Soldiers.” -- PIS LIKE TRUMP AND NETANYAHU - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI FURTHER: “It seems that PiS intends to draw on the experiences of Donald Trump in the USA or Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel. Both, after losing elections, realized that they could not simply admit defeat, because then their voters would start to demobilize. Both assumed that what they had to do was radicalize their supporters.” https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art39336021-michal-szuldrzynski-pis-nie-chce-przechodzic-do-opozycji-woli-zejsc-do-podziemia -- I WOULD NOT GIVE AGRICULTURE AND THE MINISTRY TO THE PEASANTS - MICHAŁ KOŁODZIEJCZAK IN A CONVERSATION WITH SEBASTIAN OGÓREK IN GW: “Personally, I believe that this position should go to Civic Coalition, which had much greater support than Third Way among farmers in rural Poland. I'm talking about both percentage and individual terms. I would not give agriculture and the ministry to the peasants, but I know that coalitions are built on dividing the spoils.” -- I CANNOT IMAGINE WE WILL BE HEADING TOWARDS LATIFUNDIA, VERY EASY TO TAKE OVER BY LARGE CORPORATIONS - KOŁODZIEJCZAK TELLS OGÓREK: “However, I cannot imagine that we will be heading towards latifundia, very easy to take over by large corporations. This would be a great threat to the Polish economy. But also to the social fabric, tradition, and landscape. I do not agree to a corn monoculture stretching to the horizon.” -- THESE SHOPS MUST KNOW, HOWEVER, THAT IF WE CANNOT REACH AN AGREEMENT ON THEIR APPROACH TO FARMERS, I WILL DO EVERYTHING TO ENSURE IT HAPPENS THROUGH LEGISLATION - KOŁODZIEJCZAK FURTHER TO OGÓREK IN GW: “Agrounia has its MP. Polish farmers have their good neighbor, their colleague, in the Parliament of the Republic of Poland, who knows their needs. For us, this is a great common success. This can be used in negotiations with retail chains for a friendly change in their approach to farmers. This is normal action. However, these stores must know that if we cannot reach an agreement on their approach to farmers, I will do everything to ensure it happens through legislation.” -- WE MUST REALIZE, HOWEVER, THAT THE ISSUE OF ABORTION IS A CERTAIN OBSTACLE WHEN IT COMES TO EXPANDING THE ELECTORATE IN RURAL AREAS - KOŁODZIEJCZAK TELLS OGÓREK: “This is a contentious issue, no one will hide that. I will not break people, their spines – what they should do, how they should live in Poland, how they should live in rural Poland. In conservative circles, this is a matter that still evokes great emotions. Of course, I would like people to feel free in Poland, to be able to act in accordance with their own conscience. Both one way and the other. We must realize, however, that the issue of abortion is a certain obstacle when it comes to expanding the electorate in rural areas. People have concerns related to this topic. There is also tradition and upbringing, which have a great influence. We will have to work on this. And not even because of my private views, but because of the fact that the conservative part of Polish society is so large. One cannot pretend that it does not exist.” https://wyborcza.biz/biznes/7,147743,30351729,mamy-wspolny-vibe-z-donaldem-michal-kolodziejczak-chce-byc.html -- THE JOKES ARE OVER, IT'S TIME TO PRESENT THE GOVERNMENT PROGRAM - WITOLD GADOMSKI IN GW: “PiS, along with the president, is giving the victorious opposition time to create a coherent program, and it would be good if this time were not wasted, because soon it will be judged not on declarations and rhetoric aimed at the previous team, but on the quality of governance. That is – as General Wieniawa-Długoszowski used to say, leaving a place upstairs after a good drinking session – gentlemen, the jokes are over, the hard work begins.” -- GADOMSKI ON THE FINANCE MINISTER SHOULD BE ABLE TO SAY NO TO TUSK: “Donald Tusk should have a strong partner managing economic policy and capable of saying 'no' to him when the prime minister demands unrealistic or excessively burdensome things for the economy. It would be good to return to the tradition of governments from the 1990s, when finance ministers not only held the position of deputy prime minister but also had the ability to block bad ideas from their colleagues. It is worth bringing politicians from all coalition groupings to the Ministry of Finance so that they better understand the problems of public finances and the possibilities of the budget.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30350380,skonczyly-sie-zarty-czas-przedstawic-program.html -- THE PROCEDURE AIMED AT BRINGING PI LEADERS BEFORE THE TRIBUNAL OF STATE SHOULD AT LEAST BE INITIATED - CEZARY MICHALSKI IN INTERIA: “The task of politicians is not to participate in an excessive media circus, which is already assigned to them. Their proper task is to rebuild a non-partisan prosecution service and an independent judiciary in Poland. As well as to provide the prosecution and courts with all documents concerning the actions of PiS members in business, services, and state offices. If, in such a rebuilt space of law and its enforcement, it turns out that Obajtek broke the law, let him go to prison. If there is no such evidence (which I may not believe, but I should wait for the facts), even the most anti-PiS media will have to make do. The procedure aimed at bringing PiS leaders before the Tribunal of State, even if it is not brought to completion due to the president's actions or the insufficient strength of democratic parties in parliament, should at least be initiated, as it will be a natural, and moreover, constitutional and legal opportunity to check whether and to what extent Kaczyński, Morawiecki, Ziobro... exceeded the systemic and legal limits of their power.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-jak-choruja-demokracje,nId,7113120 -- IF PIS HAD PASSED THE CIVIL PARTNERSHIP ACT AND HAD NOT AIMED TO CHANGE ABORTION LAW, THEY MIGHT HAVE RULED FOREVER - TOMASZ SAWCZUK IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “On the charts of political party popularity, it is visible that the biggest drop in support for PiS, which the party never recovered from, occurred after the Constitutional Tribunal's ruling on abortion. It seems that this was also the moment when young voters entered the game in greater numbers. If PiS had passed the civil partnership act and had not aimed to change abortion law, they might have ruled forever. This would have prevented the opposition from choosing a more culturally liberal course, and at the same time, one moderate enough to count on mass voter support. Perhaps the opposition would have managed to win anyway, but it would certainly have been more difficult. However, PiS chose the path of ideological fanaticism, not only in this matter, and then wonders why people do not want fanaticism.” -- LIMITATIONS OF A POLITICAL MODEL BASED ON RADICAL CONFLICT, UNDERSTOOD IN TERMS OF A FUNDAMENTAL DIVISION INTO FRIENDS AND ENEMIES, BUT THEN PIS WOULD NOT BE THE CURRENT PIS - SAWCZUK FURTHER IN KL: “All this shows the limitations of a political model based on radical conflict, understood in terms of a fundamental division into friends and enemies. In this context, a more consensual liberal-democratic model, in which the principle is open debate and striving for agreement between differing partners, is better. In such a model, we would not have problems with constitutional crisis and the rule of law. However, if PiS had adopted such an approach from the beginning – it would not be the current PiS.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2023/10/30/sawczuk-pis-nie-rozumie-dlaczego-przegralo-wybory/ -- BIRTHDAYS: Anna Krupka, Andrzej Drzycimski, Tomasz Zimoch, Andrzej Gut-Mostowy, Andrzej Rzońca, Małgorzata Golińska.

Łukasz Mężyk