state of play: 10/28/2023

POLITICAL STATE OF PLAY: Gądek: The President Seeks a 'New Duda' to Embrace a New Reality; Wielowieyska: Duda Has Two Years to Present Himself as the Leader of the Populist Right; Szczęśniak: Perhaps WKK as Speaker? Matczak: A Carnival of Arrogance. Do You

Łukasz Mężyk

-- TADEUSZ MAZOWIECKI DIED TEN YEARS AGO - OCTOBER 28, 2013 Photo: KARTA Centre

-- AFTER 1989, PEOPLE LAUGHED AT HIS ETERNALLY WORRIED, EVEN GRIEVED EXPRESSION, ALTHOUGH MANY POLITICIANS, ESPECIALLY THOSE WITH A SOLIDARITY BACKGROUND, KNEW ABOUT HIS LIFE TRAUMAS - ANDRZEJ BRZEZIECKI IN GW: “Life was not kind to him. Even as a boy, before the war, he lost his father. Later, his older brother died in a German camp. His first wife, Krystyna, who had survived Ravensbrück, died young of tuberculosis shortly after their wedding. His second wife, Ewa, succumbed to breast cancer – when their two older sons were in school, and the youngest was only three years old. After 1989, people laughed at his eternally worried, even grieved expression, although many politicians, especially those with a Solidarity background, knew about his life traumas.”

-- HE WAS BELIEVING, BUT HE DID NOT HAVE THE MENTALITY OF A CATHOLIC POLITICIAN - BRZEZIECKI CONTINUES: “Today, he is remembered for introducing religion into schools. It may not have been the wisest decision – moreover, many clergy feared it would harm the Church. He was believing, but he did not have the mentality of a Catholic politician. He remembered, however, how the state fought against believers. As early as 1962, he wrote that secularization as a social phenomenon has many values because it ‘aims to protect human freedom from any abuse of power in the realm of ideology, in the realm of human conscience.’ His words are still relevant today.”
https://wyborcza.pl/alehistoria/7,121681,30323073,polityk-trudnych-czasow.html

-- KOŁODZIEJCZAK EVEN SUGGESTED THAT A WELL-KNOWN JOURNALIST HAD SOME CONNECTION WITH THE SPOKESPERSON FOR THE RUSSIAN MFA, MARIA ZAKHAROVA. - MAYBE SHE RECEIVED A SIGNAL FROM HIM - HE SAID - GAZETA.PL: “I have doubts whether Zacharova (spokesperson for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs – ed.), whom he knows, received a signal from him: Attack Kołodziejczak, speak about him… – he said. The reporter retorted that these were too strong words, but Kołodziejczak pressed on. – Not too strong, but pointing towards how a radio editor with the highest listenership in Poland behaves – he said.”
https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,30349393,michal-kolodziejczak-nie-moze-sie-pogodzic-z-wywiadem-u-mazurka.html

-- A CARNIVAL OF ARROGANCE. DO YOU BELIEVE, LIKE PiS, THAT YOU WILL RULE FOREVER? - MARCIN MATCZAK IN GW: “Instead of wisely holding power accountable, you foolishly harass people. You want a roasted duck as a symbol of thanksgiving. You want to humiliate them, to show who is in charge here. You think that these eight years were an anomaly, that things have now returned to the right track, and that Poland will never derail again. There were a thousand hours of religion in schools, so will there now be a thousand hours of sex education? Instead of wisely holding PiS's government accountable, you foolishly harass people who voted for it.”

-- MANDELA MADE ALL THESE GESTURES TOWARDS THOSE RESPONSIBLE FOR CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY, NOT FOR EIGHT YEARS OF AUTHORITARIAN RULE. HE DID IT TO UNITE A NATION DIVIDED BY HATRED - MATCZAK CONTINUES IN GW: “Mandela participated in a rugby match, a sport symbolic of apartheid supporters. It would be like Trzaskowski participating in the Smoleńsk monthly commemoration and unironically laying flowers under the black stairs in Piłsudski Square. Mandela insisted that his security detail include white individuals. It would be like Brejza deciding that Wąsik’s people should protect him. Mandela made all these gestures towards people responsible for crimes against humanity, not for eight years of authoritarian rule. He did it to unite a nation divided by hatred. Compared to this hatred, our disputes look like a kindergarten quarrel. Here, no one even imagines such gestures – admit that they simply seem ridiculous to you.”

-- IF THE NEW GOVERNMENT IS TO HUMILIATE PiS VOTERS BY HUMILIATING THE MEMORY OF SOMEONE IMPORTANT TO THEM WHO DIED, THEN SOMETHING IS WRONG WITH US - MATCZAK CONTINUES: “I don't expect them either, because I know what we are like. But I would like Roman Giertych not to be the Minister of Justice, because for the other side, he will be Ziobro à rebours – someone seeking not justice, but retribution for personal grievances. And I would like him not to conduct polls on Twitter about whether to move Lech Kaczyński's monument to a more secluded location. Because if the new government is to humiliate PiS voters by humiliating the memory of someone important to them who died, then something is wrong with us.”
https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,30337069,marcin-matczak-trwa-karnawal-pychy-i-odplacania-pieknym-za.html

-- AND A FEW PAGES FURTHER IN GW: "ORPHANS OF THE PRL BOARDED THE PiS SHIP, LOOKING FOR ALLOCATIONS AND PERKS, UNDERSTANDING THE FREE MARKET AS A FLEA MARKET" - JAROSŁAW BRATKIEWICZ FROM THE "ADAM MICHNIK RECOMMENDS" SERIES: “PiS managed to muster almost half of Poland onto this ship: all the orphans of the PRL who see the sense of economics in administrative and redistributive measures. They look for 'thirteenth salaries,' allocations, and perks, understand the free market as a flea market, and democracy as a tavern brawl. There were the incompetents, the ne'er-do-wells, and the cowards of the PRL era, now making up for it with patriotic bombast how they once fawned over communist distributors of goods, lining up for meat ration cards. Also on board are the feverish victims of late birth, now bravely marching with a white-red armband and a scythe held at the ready against the phantoms and illusions of post-communism fabricated by PiS ideology.”
https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,30329535,koczkodany-w-konfederatkach.html

-- IN AN RP POLL, THE THIRD WAY IS THE BIGGEST WINNER OF THE ELECTIONS: “We asked participants in the SW Research poll for rp.pl who, in their opinion, can consider themselves the biggest winner of the parliamentary elections. The largest group, 33%, indicated the Third Way.”
https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art39335141-sondaz-polacy-wskazuja-najwiekszego-zwyciezce-wyborow-ko-nie-wygrywa

-- ANOTHER POSSIBLE SCENARIO IS THAT TUSK DOES NOT INTEND TO FIGHT TO THE BITTER END FOR THE POSITION OF MARSHAL FOR BUDKA, AND THE LEAK IS MEANT TO SHOW BUDKA AND OTHER PO POLITICIANS THAT HE IS FIGHTING - AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK IN OKO.PRESS: “Tusk will probably not give up this position entirely, and if he does, it will be for a suitable price, which partners will have to pay in government positions. Tusk also has a kind of debt towards Borys Budka. Budka was the head of Civic Platform for a year and a half; he resigned in July 2021, handing over that position to the future (and at the same time former) Prime Minister. Without public fights, without arguments – Budka enabled a velvet (at least in the eyes of public opinion) transfer of power to Tusk within the party. Another possible scenario is that Tusk does not intend to fight to the bitter end for the position of Marshal for Borys Budka, and the leak that such an option is in play is meant to show Budka and other PO politicians that he is fighting.”

-- IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT THAT WŁADYSŁAW KOSINIAK-KAMYSZ WILL ULTIMATELY BECOME THE MARSHAL OF THE SEJM. ALTHOUGH HE IS THE QUIETEST PERSON REGARDING THIS POSITION TODAY - SZCZĘŚNIAK CONTINUES IN OKO: “A less official story: the aim is for Hołownia to remain at a certain distance from the government and Donald Tusk. 'There is no better position for a presidency than Marshal. The government wears you down, the Sejm builds you up,' comments an opposition politician. Another scenario: Hołownia becomes the super-deputy prime minister for climate. A part of the people in Hołownia's party is convinced of this vision. However, there is a personnel problem here: there is only one prime minister. And Hołownia is building his political position in opposition to Donald Tusk. Would he be his 'deputy'? Looking at the possible scenarios, it cannot be ruled out that Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz will ultimately become the Marshal of the Sejm. Although he is the quietest person today in the context of this position.”
https://oko.press/rozpoczela-sie-nowa-tura-rozmow-liderow

-- ANDRZEJ DUDA HAS TWO YEARS TO PRESENT HIMSELF AS THE LEADER OF THE POPULIST RIGHT, AND HE WILL USE THIS OPPORTUNITY - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “Andrzej Duda has two years to present himself as the leader of the populist right, and he will use this opportunity. This policy will be conducted in opposition to Kaczyński – Mastalerek already expressed the opinion on Radio Zet that the PiS leader should retire. At the same time, he is building a narrative that within the populist right camp, the only politician who has been undefeated so far is Andrzej Duda, and no one has gained as much support as he personally has. This is a prelude to a political construction under the slogan: only an undefeated politician can lead PiS to victory in the next parliamentary elections. Duda will try to prove to PiS that he is now its only stronghold and defender of its achievements, which is why Kaczyński must start taking him seriously.”

-- FOR EXAMPLE, THE TELEVISION WILL BE MANAGED BY A PERSON WHO WON A LEGAL COMPETITION ORGANIZED BY KRRiT AT THAT TIME. THIS PERSON IS DASZCZYŃSKI - WIELOWIEYSKA CONTINUES: “The new parliamentary majority may therefore adopt a resolution stating that, in accordance with the Constitutional Tribunal's ruling, the National Media Council is an unconstitutional body and its decisions are invalid. And the situation from 2015 will be restored, according to which, for example, television will be managed by a person who won a legal competition organized by KRRiT at that time. This person is precisely Daszczyński. Such an operation would be in accordance with the law, as court rulings are final and must be executed in light of the constitution.”

-- DUDA HAS MADE IT HIS HONOR TO NEVER ALLOW ANYONE TO QUESTION HIS JUDICIAL NOMINATIONS - WIELOWIEYSKA WRITES IN GW: “Pushing through any legislation concerning the judiciary will be difficult during Duda's term. It's not just that the president wants to hinder the new government's success, i.e., obtaining EU funds, but also that Duda has made it his point of honor to never allow anyone to question his judicial nominations. And generally, to take away any of his competencies. This is the president's primary motivation behind his decisions, including those that did not please Nowogrodzka.”

-- IT SEEMS VERY LIKELY THAT KOSINIAK-KAMYSZ WILL BE THE DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER AND KEY MINISTER FOR THE ECONOMY - WIELOWIEYSKA STATES: “It seems very likely that Kosiniak-Kamysz will be the Deputy Prime Minister and key minister for the economy. The remaining arrangement is highly uncertain. The pool of names appearing in the media shows the expectations of individual politicians, but these predictions may not necessarily come true. Especially since the division of responsibilities for specific areas between Civic Coalition, Third Way, and the Left is not yet clear. Without determining who will be the Marshal of the Sejm, negotiations are at a standstill, and such a division is impossible.”
https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,30341684,raport-wielowieyskiej-tusk-z-koalicjantami-juz-wiedza-jak.html

-- KEY WORDS OF THE PRESIDENTIAL CABINET CHIEF, MARCIN MASTALEREK, IN GOŚĆ WYDARZEŃ: I don't think President Duda wants to be an easy excuse for any future coalition on any matter: https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/10/27/mastalerek-nie-sadze-by-prezydent-duda-chcial-byc-latwa-wymowke-dla-ew-przyszlej-koalicji-w-jakiejkolwiek-sprawie/

-- THE PRESIDENT IS LOOKING FOR A "NEW ANDRZEJ DUDA" TO EMBRACE THE NEW REALITY IN POLAND - JACEK GĄDEK IN GAZETA.PL: “At PiS headquarters, the decision has already been made to first test Bocheński in the elections for the Mayor of Warsaw – they will take place in spring 2024. If he proves himself, he could then be anointed as a candidate for the president of the country. Another name that started circulating spontaneously, first on right-wing Twitter/X profiles, and then became the subject of discussion at Nowogrodzka, is Kacper Płażyński. He has been a PiS MP for the second term. An MP from Gdańsk, where he achieved a very high result in the parliamentary elections (percentage-wise, the second best in PiS after Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki).”
https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,30347424,pis-szuka-juz-nowego-andrzeja-dudy-ma-byc-kluczem-do-realizacji.html

-- WILL TUSK'S TEAM ADHERE TO THE LAW? - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN RP: “Announcements have been made to do it in '24 hours'. The problem is that this will entangle the new ruling coalition in accusations of unlawfulness. True, the National Media Council was a body created outside the constitution, but it was still inscribed in law. Here, one will have to go further. Abolishing the Constitutional Tribunal would be a pathetic display of subordinating all norms to the desire for unimpeded governance. Of course, the Constitutional Tribunal can cause the new government a lot of trouble, but the very idea of checks and balances between powers and the influence of institutions in a democratic state exposes one to such challenges. The idea of getting rid of a crowd of judges is a problem not only for them but for anyone who will seek their rights in court.”

-- SUCH REVENGE WILL PREVAIL NOW, HOWEVER. CZUCHNOWSKI'S IDEAL IS A SITUATION WHERE ALL MAJOR MEDIA WILL BE CONCENTRATED AROUND ONE COMMON LINE, BEST MUTUALLY CONSULTED. AND THIS IS EVEN SADDER - ZAREMBA CONTINUES: “This is accompanied by pressure from various lobbies, about which Jan Rokita wrote. He mentioned, among others, 'fanatical journalists and intellectuals.' On Twitter (X), Wojciech Czuchnowski, a leading pen of 'Gazeta Wyborcza,' suggests a purge not only among public media personnel but also private ones. He names authors of the current editorial line of Polsat, which in his opinion leans too much towards PiS. He directs his appeal to private owners. For him, it is obvious that they should not resist the will of the new government. The accusation against Polsat is absurd, based on the philosophy: he who is not with us (100 percent) is against us. Such revenge will prevail now, however. Czuchnowski's ideal is a situation where all major media will be concentrated around one common line, preferably mutually consulted. And this is even sadder than the potential necessity of legal maneuvering that is hatching in the minds of the new government's leaders.”
https://www.rp.pl/plus-minus/art39330411-trybunal-konstytucyjny-tvp-zabetonowana-prokuratura-czy-ekipa-tuska-bedzie-przestrzegac-prawa

-- NO ONE BELIEVED THE OPPOSITION THAT "THERE IS NO MONEY". THIS IS THE FIRST CLEARLY WON SKIRMISH BY THE PRO-POLISH CAMP AFTER THE ELECTIONS - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “This is not a great triumph, but it is certainly the first clearly won skirmish by the pro-Polish camp after the elections. Largely thanks to Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki's precise, professional response. No one believed the opposition that 'there is no money and there will be no money,' because that was the sense of a series of statements by its politicians about the supposedly inherited state of disaster.”
https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/668474-nikt-nie-uwierzyl-opozycji-ze-piniendzy-nie-ma

-- THE SPECTACLE OF PiS "FORMING A GOVERNMENT" WILL RUIN M. MORAWIECKI. BUT IT WILL BE A BURDEN FOR THE ENTIRE RIGHT - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN INTERIA: “This supposedly mission impossible will ridicule Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. He has already become the face of defeat. Now this impression will be sealed when no one wants to talk to him. This might not concern President Duda, or even Morawiecki's colleagues from PiS. But the powerlessness of the entire United Right will be demonstrated. This is not a good starting point for a new era when this right wants to be a strong, effective opposition. Of course, in two years this may not matter. But one must avoid even embedding such impressions into the subconscious of voters. Especially since local elections are just a few months away.”

-- IN THEIR PLACE, I WOULD SWITCH TO URGING THE NEW COALITION ON: LET THEM TAKE POWER AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE AND SHOW WHAT THEY CAN DO - ZAREMBA CONTINUES IN INTERIA: “In Andrzej Duda's place, I would opt for shortening this spectacle. He should do this for the sake of his own camp's reputation. Why do PiS leaders so readily fall into creating illusions: 'we can try to form a government'? I have no idea. In their place, I would switch to urging the new coalition: let them take power as quickly as possible and show what they can do. Especially since the drawers in this coalition are clearly empty, and everyone says something different.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-spektakl-tworzenia-rzadu-przez-pis-pograzy-m-morawieckiego-a,nId,7113197

-- ABORTION AND THE POLITICAL PARADOX - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RP: “Secondly, attempts to include the liberalization of abortion law in the future coalition's work plan show what a paradoxical situation we are in. Assuming that the entire PiS, the majority of Konfederacja, but also PSL, are against the legalization of abortion on demand up to the 12th week of pregnancy, and in Szymon Hołownia's Poland 2050, there is a belief that this is a matter that citizens should decide, it may turn out that there will be no majority in the new Sejm for the legalization of abortion. Although three-quarters of Poles support the liberalization of the abortion law, they have elected parties to the new Sejm that are reluctant to do so. In other words, the political representation that Poles have chosen in the elections is significantly more conservative than society as a whole.”
https://www.rp.pl/plus-minus/art39330511-michal-szuldrzynski-aborcja-i-polityczny-paradoks

-- THE DEATH OF WANDA PÓŁTAWSKA IS A SYMBOLIC, BUT ALSO FINAL, END TO THE MODEL OF A POWERFUL CHURCH IN POLAND THAT WAS SHAPED IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE 20TH CENTURY - TOMASZ TERLIKOWSKI IN RP: “It was Wanda Półtawska who was responsible for shaping family counseling in the Polish Church, which was one of the foundations on which the pro-life movement was built in our country. Furthermore, she occasionally intervened with John Paul II when other channels of contact and communication failed. This was allegedly the case, for example, in the matter of Archbishop Juliusz Paetz. And this, necessarily very brief, description alone shows how enormous her influence was on the history of the Church in our country.”
https://www.rp.pl/plus-minus/art39330531-tomasz-p-terlikowski-symboliczny-koniec-czasu-potegi-kosciola

-- TADEUSZ MAZOWIECKI DIED TEN YEARS AGO - OCTOBER 28, 2013

-- 34 YEARS AGO, at the end of an interview on the television program Dziennik Komentarze, actress Joanna Szczepkowska said: “Ladies and gentlemen, on June fourth, 1989, in Poland… communism ended.”

-- ALSO 34 YEARS AGO, the Christian National Union (ZChN) was founded.

-- 5 YEARS AGO, Edward Dwurnik died.

-- Also 5 years ago, Kazimierz Czaplicki died.

-- BIRTHDAYS: Piotr Semka turns 58, Mieto Strzelecki, Tadeusz Iwiński. SUNDAY: Jerzy Fedorowicz, Wojciech Kolarski (turns 51), Henryka Bochniarz, Tomasz Nałęcz, Waldemar Witkowski.

Łukasz Mężyk