state of play: 10/26/2023

STATE OF PLAY: Trzecia Droga at Szczęśniak's: "If anyone can cooperate with the President, it's us," Kalukin: "It's possible to argue that Hołownia significantly boosted overall turnout," Pekao Report: "Children spend too much time in front of screens."

Łukasz Mężyk

-- MASTALEREK: THE PRESIDENT WAS TOLD BY PO, TD, AND THE LEFT THAT TUSK IS THE CANDIDATE FOR PRIME MINISTER. TODAY, HE WILL PROBABLY SAY WHEN HE MAKES HIS DECISION - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/10/26/ -- POLAND, ESPECIALLY IN THE CURRENT GEOPOLITICAL CLIMATE, IS TOO IMPORTANT AN ELEMENT OF THE EUROPEAN PUZZLE NOT TO BE REWARDED FOR DEFEATING THE POPULISTS - BOGUSŁAW CHRABOTA IN RZ: “Donald Tusk knows this, but his political partners in Brussels also know it. If they do not want his personal disgrace and the return of populists to power, they must do something to ensure that the vision of money flowing in streams from the EU to the Vistula returns.” https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art39324921-boguslaw-chrabota-donald-tusk-wroci-z-brukseli-z-sukcesem -- THE KPO WILL BE UNBLOCKED. BECAUSE URSULA VON DER LEYEN MUST REWARD DONALD TUSK NOW - JĘDRZEJ BIELECKI IN RZ: “She will therefore reward the new Polish government with a swift decision to release the KPO, to show those Europeans who were charmed by populism that it is worth returning to the rule of law. A whole army of lawyers is working in Brussels to adapt paragraphs, deadlines, and procedures to this political decision. This is already of secondary importance.” https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art39321251-jedrzej-bielecki-kpo-bedzie-odblokowane-bo-ursula-von-der-leyen-musi-nagrodzic-teraz-donalda-tuska -- TRZECIA DROGA FOCUSED ON BUILDING A HUMANITARIAN CORRIDOR BETWEEN THE FUTURE PRIME MINISTER'S OFFICE AND THE PRESIDENT'S OFFICE - AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK IN OKO.PRESS: “According to our interviewee who knows the behind-the-scenes preparations for this visit, the goal was to make the conversation with the president as personal as possible. This way, Andrzej Duda would establish a direct relationship with the two leaders of Trzecia Droga and not be distracted by conversations with a larger number of people. It was the most intimate of the presidential meetings. Apart from Hołownia and Kosiniak-Kamysz, only Andrzej Duda, the new head of the presidential cabinet Marcin Mastalerek, and the head of the Presidential Chancellery Grażyna Ignaczak-Bandych participated. Such a narrow composition on the president's side occurred only during the meeting with PiS. Trzecia Droga hopes that building a direct relationship with Andrzej Duda will pay off and that these two leaders will be intermediaries between the Presidential Palace and the rest of the forming governing coalition. 'They went with the intention of building bridges,' the Trzecia Droga politician explains the strategic assumptions. 'If anyone can cooperate with the president, it's us,' they say.” https://oko.press/trzecia-droga-pomosty-z-duda -- OVERALL, IT IS POSSIBLE TO ARGUE THAT HOŁOWNIA HAD A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE INCREASE IN TURNOUT IN THE ENTIRE POOL - RAFAŁ KALUKIN IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “Overall, however, it is possible to argue that Hołownia had a significant impact on the increase in turnout in the entire pool. PiS primarily sought to retain its existing voters, trying to discourage everyone else by inciting moral panic around Tusk. The KO leader therefore had to primarily detach propaganda fears, playing on PiS's field – first social, then immigration. And as it turns out, he managed to neutralize much of it. However, without Hołownia, who began to attract anti-PiS voters permanently unconvinced by Tusk for Trzecia Droga, a decisive success would have been difficult to achieve.” -- THE LEFT, ORIENTED TODAY ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY TOWARDS THE YOUNG GENERATION BREAKING NEW PROGRESSIVE PATHS, IS DOOMED TO A NICHE, BECAUSE THAT IS SIMPLY OUR DEMOGRAPHY - KALUKIN FURTHER IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “The Left, oriented today almost exclusively towards the young generation breaking new progressive paths, is doomed to a niche, because that is simply our demography. The same is true of Konfederacja, which appeals to the freedom aspirations of mainly the male part of the youngest generation and, despite attempts, has not been able to reach older generations. In addition, there was the specific context of these elections. It is not impossible that Trzecia Droga's greatest asset was its… weakness. Many voters of KO and the Left, frightened by the prospect of its drowning, tactically shifted their votes to Hołownia and Kosiniak-Kamysz's grouping. Overall, Tusk's strong formation did not feel it as much, but the left-wingers had to swallow a status degradation from the position of a mid-size player to a small one.” -- VOTERS WHO GAVE VICTORY TO THE OPPOSITION MUST FEEL THAT SOMEONE AT THE HELM, ALTHOUGH LISTENING TO CITIZENS, IS ALSO FIRMLY HOLDING THE STEER - KALUKIN STILL WRITES IN POLITYKA: “However, it would be bad if the absolute agency of the right were now replaced by the liberal 'it's impossible.' This is not so simple, because Tusk regained power precisely to move away from PiS's extreme voluntarism and rebuild control institutions, as well as the coherence of domestic and European policy. Nevertheless, the space for political agency remains to be filled. Voters who gave victory to the opposition must feel that someone at the helm, while listening to citizens, is also firmly holding the reins, and that the Polish ship is not drifting. And this may be the greatest challenge of this term.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2232300,1,co-takiego-sie-stalo-ze-elektorat-antypisu-w-kluczowej-chwili-poczul-moc-suwerena.read?src=mt -- IF HE WANTS TO RETAIN POWER AFTER THE NEXT ELECTIONS, HE MUST RENOUNCE THE VICIOUS PLEASURE OF ARRANGING OTHERS' LIVES AND INFLICTING SYMBOLIC PAIN ON HIS OPPONENTS - MAREK MIGALSKI IN RZ: “This is an important lesson for today's opposition. If it wants to retain power after the next elections, it must renounce the vicious pleasure of arranging others' lives and inflicting symbolic pain on its opponents. Because just as voters rebelled against 'political sadism' on October 15, they can repeat it in four years. This means that if Donald Tusk wants to remain in power, he must act tough on PiS politicians (especially those who broke the law), but softly towards the voters of the United Right. If the latter feel bad in a state governed by today's opposition, they will demand their rights and well-being in the next elections. If, on the other hand, their feelings and values are not offended, and their world is not turned upside down, they may either be convinced by the new government or simply stay at home, feeling that their lives are proceeding comfortably.” https://www.rp.pl/publicystyka/art39318691-marek-migalski-sadyzm-polityczny-porazka-pis-i-przestroga-dla-opozycji -- MORAWIECKI COULD DELIVER AN EXPOSÉ, BUT NOT SUBMIT TO A VOTE TO AVOID THE STIGMA OF DEFEAT - PIOTR ŚMIŁOWICZ IN GAZETA.PL: “From the statements of some PiS politicians, it follows that the party intends to use the next three weeks to try to gain a majority for Morawiecki's government. And if this fails, the prime minister, of course, if nominated by Duda, will deliver an exposé but will not submit to a vote. He will resign from the parliamentary tribune to avoid the stigma of a lost vote. After all, a similar situation has already occurred, albeit under different constitutional conditions – in 1992, the then leader of PSL, Waldemar Pawlak, delivered an exposé but said that he was not seeking support for his government because he had failed to form it.” https://jedennewsdziennie.pl/#id=96 -- THE PERIOD OF UNCERTAINTY IS A TIME FOR INTERNAL NEGOTIATIONS FOR THE NEW MAJORITY, BUT ALSO A CHANCE FOR PiS TO TRY TO BREAK IT UP - ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA IN RZ: “PiS has therefore not come to terms with defeat. – Our offer to PSL will be valid for the entire term – says our source from Jarosław Kaczyński's closest circle.” https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art39324931-pis-liczy-na-rozbicie-nowej-wiekszosci-w-sejmie-wiele-niewiadomych -- ASSUMING THE SAME NUMBER OF VOTERS WOULD VOTE FOR A JOINT LIST AS FOR THREE SEPARATE LISTS, THE JOINT LIST WOULD WIN 265 SEATS, 17 MORE THAN WHEN THE OPPOSITION RAN ON THREE LISTS - ANDRZEJ MACHOWSKI IN GW: “Assuming that the same number of voters would vote for a joint list as for three separate lists, the joint list – according to calculations district by district (based on PKW data) – would win 265 seats, 17 more than when the opposition ran on three lists. I do not want to re-initiate the discussion on how much a joint list could mobilize or, conversely, demobilize pro-democratic voters. I will only add that even if only 11 million voted for a joint list (600,000 fewer), it would still win 261 seats – 13 more than KO, TD, and Lewica collectively obtained when running separately.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30340914,czy-zwyciestwo-demokratow-w-wyborach-moglo-byc-jeszcze-wieksze.html -- PERHAPS, HOWEVER, THE TUSK WE KNOW WILL SHOW THOSE TRAITS THAT HELP BUILD, NOT FIGHT. THE COALITION PRESENTS RATHER GOOD COOPERATION TO THE PUBLIC, DOES NOT EXPOSE CONFLICTS - KATARZYNA SKRZYDŁOWSKA-KALUKIN IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “And this would mean that the future prime minister is entirely the Tusk we know – a politician who dominates both his party collaborators and his electoral coalition. Will he try to do this with his government coalition partners as well? That would not bode well for cooperation. Perhaps, however, the Tusk we know will show those traits that help build, not fight. The coalition presents rather good cooperation to the public, it does not expose conflicts. And this is what it needs – internal struggles will not help govern when the opposition is such a strong PiS.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2023/10/26/skrzydlowska-kalukin-jaki-bedzie-premier-donald-tusk-iii/ -- PEKAO BANK REPORT ON CHILDREN'S PHYSICAL ACTIVITY. ACCORDING TO PARENTS, THEY SPEND TOO MUCH TIME IN FRONT OF SCREENS - WIRTUALNE MEDIA: https://www.wirtualnemedia.pl/artykul/bank-pekao-aktywnosc-fizyczna-dzieci-zdaniem-rodzicow-za-duzo-czasu-spedzaja-przed-ekranami -- 30 YEARS AGO, WALDEMAR PAWLAK BECAME PRIME MINISTER FOR THE SECOND TIME. -- BIRTHDAYS: Janusz Palikot, Danuta Waniek, Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz, Dorota Drozd.

Łukasz Mężyk