-- MOODS IN UKRAINE AFTER THE ELECTIONS IN POLAND. ZELENSKY IS IN TROUBLE. AND HE DIDN'T EVEN POSE FOR A PHOTO WITH TUSK - JAGIENKA WILCZAK ON TYGODNIK POLITYKA PORTAL: “President Volodymyr Zelensky, out of necessity, invested heavily in relations with PiS and Andrzej Duda. Poland opened its borders, and Rzeszów and the airport in Jasionka became a central point facilitating foreign aid and Ukraine's relations with the world. Zelensky, like fire, avoided contact with the opposition and Tusk; he had not met with him since the outbreak of the war. In Warsaw, he went so far as to endorse the PiS narrative about the Smoleńsk plane crash. He said exactly what PiS wanted to hear. As the president of an invaded country, he must have been aware of the weight of the words spoken by him in the Polish capital. And the ban issued to members of the presidential team against being photographed with leaders of the Polish opposition sounds almost humorous.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/swiat/2231956,1,nastroje-w-ukrainie-po-wyborach-w-polsce-zelenski-ma-klopot-a-z-tuskiem-sie-nawet-nie-fotografowal.read -- KOBOSKO: TOMORROW A DECLARATION FROM 3 FORMATIONS REGARDING A JOINT GOVERNMENT – PRELIMINARILY AT 10:00 AM - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/10/23/ -- WAS THE DECISION TO BUG OPPOSITION POLITICIANS MADE TWO DAYS BEFORE THE ELECTION? ACCORDING TO PAWEŁ WOJTUNIK, FORMER HEAD OF CBA. WE KNOW WHAT GIVING ORDERS TO AGENTS LOOKED LIKE - WOJCIECH CZUCHNOWSKI IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “The SMS message indicates that an officer warns against taking phones to meetings important to the opposition. In turn, ‘an order to eliminate as many people as possible’ means that his superiors wanted to record a maximum number of activists. The individuals issuing the orders also allegedly did not hide that if something compromising was recorded, it would be passed on to selected media. They also allegedly assured their subordinates that they would not bear responsibility for such actions (a clause of impunity).” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,30328615,rozkaz-podsluchiwac-opozycje-wyborcza-ujawnia-jakie-polecenie.html -- KACZYNSKI'S AND MORAWIECKI'S AGGRESSIVE SPEECHES MOBILIZED MORE URBAN VOTERS, WHO FELT OFFENDED - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN INTERIA: “The question remains, however, what role was played by the concept of a negative campaign, read by the PiS staff from detailed research. Tusk turned out to be a more effective hater, as he told a simpler story: about bad governance that needs to be removed. At the same time, the aggressive speeches of Kaczyński and Morawiecki (who was not cast in the role of an economic expert, although voters perceived him as such according to surveys, but as the first warrior) mobilized urban voters more, who felt offended. The question, moreover, is whether their dominance is a harbinger of more lasting civilizational phenomena. And whether PiS, under Kaczyński's leadership, the creator of its power, the author of its themes and goals, is capable of meeting them.” -- THESE WILL BE DIFFICULT YEARS FOR THE RIGHT. DONALD TUSK WILL TRY TO MARGINALIZE IT IN EVERY WAY POSSIBLE - ZAREMBA CONTINUES: “These will be difficult years for the right. Donald Tusk will try to marginalize it in every way possible: by taking over public media, with even more massive actions by friendly NGOs, and with a stream of EU funds convincing for stronger integration with the Union. The President may try to neutralize the effects of this activity. At the same time, PiS has no sensible successor for Duda. And the new coalition will argue that its politician must be elected president, as this will guarantee political stability.” -- WILL ANDRZEJ DUDA, WHO CAN NO LONGER RUN, BUT WILL BE A VERY YOUNG RETIREE FROM 2025, NOT WANT TO COMPETE FOR THIS LEADERSHIP? - WRITES ZAREMBA: “Will Andrzej Duda, who can no longer run, but will be a very young retiree from 2025, not want to compete for this leadership? He resisted the pressure of the opposition, which, through American diplomats, offered him an international career in exchange for the immediate appointment of Tusk as prime minister. He will cooperate with PiS, but he has his own ambitions. Will he pursue his own game?” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-j-kaczynski-na-emeryture-proponuje-to-czlowiek-prezydenta-du,nId,7099038 -- THE POSITION WILL GROW OVER THE NEXT YEAR AND A HALF, SO IT MAY TURN OUT TO BE A NEW DECISION-MAKER - MAREK KĘSKRAWIEC IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “The party must say goodbye to hundreds of positions, so next year's local and European Parliament elections will take on additional significance. This is to be a time of consolidation and regaining energy. The problem is that the aging leader must live with the constant threat of 18 MPs from Zbigniew Ziobro leaving the PiS club (which he already did to the party leader once, in 2011), and moreover, Andrzej Duda will enter the game more actively. His position will grow over the next year and a half, so he may turn out to be a new decision-maker. The suggestion of his minister, Marcin Mastalerek, that Kaczyński should retire was probably not accidental.” https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/co-dalej-z-prawem-i-sprawiedliwoscia-185123 -- PRESIDENT, DO NOT BLOCK THE NEW GOVERNMENT. COALITION – DO NOT QUARREL BEFORE YOU TAKE POWER - KATARZYNA SKRZYDŁOWSKA-KALUKIN IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “The President should not delay. If he cares about Poland's good, not his PiS colleagues, he should enable the new government to act as quickly as possible. The state needs a real, not a fake, government. Especially at a time when there is a war in Ukraine, and the one in the Middle East seems to be escalating. State interests should never be sacrificed for party interests. However, today this is particularly dangerous. (...) When the democratic coalition has to contend with a president who has the tools to hinder its formation and subsequent actual exercise of power, public conflict works to PiS's advantage, not to the benefit of women's rights. The argument about readiness for joint governance must, after all, sound convincing.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2023/10/19/skrzydlowska-kalukin-prezydencie-nie-blokuj-nowego-rzadu-koalicjo-nie-kloc-sie-zanim-nie-przejmiesz-wladzy/ -- IF THE POLLS MASS-PRODUCED IN NON-PIS MEDIA ARE TRUE, ACCORDING TO WHICH EVEN WOMEN IN THE COUNTRYSIDE ARE WAITING FOR COMPLETE LIBERALIZATION OF ABORTION, THEN I COMPLETELY DO NOT UNDERSTAND WHERE THE OPPOSITION TO A REFERENDUM COMES FROM - CEZARY MICHALSKI IN INTERIA: “The idea, very fashionable recently in non-PiS media, that Poles have chosen full liberalization of abortion, because this is the position of a celebrity/activist or even a female/male politician speaking on the topic, has nothing to do with democracy in any sense (unless, after liberal democracy and populist democracy, we are awaiting celebrity democracy). And if the polls mass-produced in non-PiS media are true, according to which even women in the countryside are waiting for complete liberalization of abortion, then I completely do not understand where the opposition to a referendum comes from. It was not through media-celebrity-activist diktat, but precisely through a referendum that the black clergy was removed from power in Ireland. And only through a referendum can it be removed from power in Poland.” -- THE KEY TO THE LEFT'S PREDICTABLE AND RESPONSIBLE BEHAVIOR IN THE NEW SEJM IS WŁODZIMIERZ CZARZASTY - CLAIMS MICHALSKI: “The key to the left's predictable and responsible behavior in the new Sejm is Włodzimierz Czarzasty. And he holds the reins tightly. For now, Zandberg and his – mainly media – support are satisfied with statements such as: ‘on social policy, the Left will have Andrzej Duda as an ally.’ The forum for these declarations is Krytyka Polityczna, which is sad for me personally, as I had high hopes for this environment to create a modern social democracy in Poland. Sławomir Sierakowski, the creator of Krytyka Polityczna, writes sensible and responsible texts at the same time, but he prefers to publish them in Polityka or Gazeta Wyborcza rather than on his parent portal.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-pierwszy-tydzien,nId,7099300 -- MAY PEOPLE AT THE BALLOT BOX FINALLY THOUGHT ABOUT POLAND, AND NOT JUST ABOUT THEIR OWN WALLETS? WAS UNDERESTIMATING POLES THE BIGGEST MISTAKE OF PIS IN THE LAST CAMPAIGN? - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “They will forget about the rule of law, about the separation of powers, about civil liberties, about the clumsy propaganda in public media, which also indicates that PiS considered Poles to be fools. They will throw national pride and dignity into the trash, as they will go for money. However, it seems that Poles turned out to be much more patriotic, more rational, and more mature than Kaczyński assumed. This underestimation of Poles was probably the most serious mistake that PiS made in this campaign.” https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art39306391-michal-szuldrzynski-dlaczego-jaroslaw-kaczynski-tak-nisko-ceni-polakow -- LET THE MAJORITY GOVERN IMMEDIATELY - ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA IN RZ: “The president may decide to prolong the process of appointing a new government and entrust this task to PiS first. But the more KO, NL, and TD show unity, the more obvious it will be that Andrzej Duda will eventually have to give them the initiative. Public opinion already knows this.” https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art39308091-zuzanna-dabrowska-niech-wiekszosc-rzadzi-od-razu -- WE MUST ENDURE IN UNITY, GUARD POLAND, SEEK OPPORTUNITY. THESE THREE "P"S WILL SOONER OR LATER BRING ABOUT THE REGAINING OF INFLUENCE OVER THE COUNTRY'S FATE - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “It is worth noting that this is now being done by circles that have been aggressively promoting Confederation for years – a political force that first thrashed PiS over the pandemic and the war, detached a part of the voters, and then, when its lack of seriousness and pro-Tusk direction became apparent to everyone, handed them over to Trzecia Droga. They were playing then, they are playing now. Let's not take this seriously, let's reject these attempts to sow discord in the Polish camp. We must GUARD POLAND. All issues raised in the campaign remain relevant. Poland cannot disarm, give up sovereignty, agree to the settlement of masses of migrants from Africa here, or sell off national assets. We must sound the alarm and organize public opinion, use all legal tools, and make our compatriots aware of the threats. We must constantly – as a patriotic camp – SEEK to regain influence over the country's fate. Certainly in the local elections, then European elections, and further presidential elections. And perhaps even in this Sejm, because other majorities are possible here – although not necessarily in the first round. If the first two points are implemented, the third will also be fulfilled. The stakes are still high, the chances – despite difficult conditions – enormous.” -- HOW HARMFUL ARE THE ALREADY APPEARING ATTEMPTS, FOR EXAMPLE, TO ATTACK PRIME MINISTER MATEUSZ MORAWIECKI, A POLITICIAN WITHOUT WHOM THE CAMPAIGN'S RESULT COULD HAVE BEEN EVEN WEAKER - KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: “In Berlin, they are happy that they won the elections in Poland. This saddens us. But let's not think that this exhausts their goals. They will want to go further, because the opponents of an independent Poland never believe that they have weakened it sufficiently. They know our ability to recover from difficult situations. That is why the already appearing attempts, for example, to attack Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, a politician without whom the campaign's result could have been even weaker, who won the televised election debate in extremely difficult conditions, are so harmful.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/667835-przetrwac-w-jednosci-pilnowac-polski-poszukiwac-szansy -- IT WAS CLOSE TO A MISHAP. IF NOT FOR THE SHARP TURN, PO WOULD HAVE OVERTAKEN US, AND CONFEDERATION WOULD HAVE CONTINUED TO GROW - ADAM BIELAN ON SOCIAL MEDIA: “We had a very long period of a purely positive campaign, during which we accounted for eight years of governance, recalled our successes and events from that period – in my opinion, the best since 1989 – while presenting projects and plans for the future. The apogee of this was the May ‘programmatic beehive.’ This shows how moods changed, how necessary a correction of the line was. After all, Confederation did not hide that its main goal was to sweep us off the political scene, to carry out ‘de-Pisization’ together with Platforma. Before the holidays, it exceeded 15% and believed that it would soon reach 20%. The introduction of comparative campaign elements at that time pulled us out of that downward spiral. However, we saw that due to the geopolitical situation, still high inflation, and anxieties translating into people's feeling that the situation in the country was going in the wrong direction, this narrative caused irritation. We were very close to a ‘mishap,’ PO was close to overtaking us, and at the same time Confederation was growing.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/667758-wazny-glos-o-kampanii-pis-gdyby-nie-ostry-zwrot -- IT WAS POSSIBLE TO OBTAIN APPROXIMATELY 8 MILLION VOTES - SAYS BIELAN: “It was possible to obtain approximately 8 million votes. That is, to repeat the result from 2019. We weren't far off. The Law and Justice list received exactly 7,640,854 votes. With the current, even high turnout, this would give, even if not an independent majority, such a large number of mandates that forming a government without our participation would not be possible. That is, above 215. Ultimately, we won 194.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/667758-wazny-glos-o-kampanii-pis-gdyby-nie-ostry-zwrot -- POLAND AFTER THE ELECTIONS. THE SCANDINAVIAN OR VENEZUELAN PATH? KAROLINA WIGURA IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “It could be a path that I will conventionally call Scandinavian. Poland would then have to integrate the populist agenda to some extent into centrist politics and the rule of law. This is happening, for example, in Denmark, where the social democratic Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has largely adopted the tough migration policy proposed by populists. Another possible path is the Venezuelan path. This would mean that after a relatively short period of liberal democratic governance, Poland will be reclaimed for another long political era by populists. There is yet another possible path, set by the USA – at least potentially, as we do not yet know the results of the presidential elections there in 2024. In this case, Poland will be taken over by either liberal democrats or national populists every one or two terms. The question should be asked whether democracy will be possible in a situation where the political system is transformed after each such victory.” -- REGARDLESS OF THE MAJORITY THE OPPOSITION HAS WON, THE CHALLENGE POSED BY THE POPULIST GROUP IN POLITICS IS NOT DIMINISHING AT ALL - WIGURA CONTINUES IN KL: “In any case, regardless of the majority the opposition has won, the challenge posed by the populist group in politics is by no means diminishing. The current age situation of Polish leaders – both Jarosław Kaczyński and Donald Tusk are fighting a fight to the death, because whoever wins will also shape the vision of their opponent's achievements and the assessment of the Third Republic's accomplishments – favors the continuation of strong polarization. It also favors imposing a single interpretation of current events on younger generations.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2023/10/18/wigura-polska-po-wyborach-droga-skandynawska-czy-wenezuelska/ -- THE ELECTIONS SHOWED THAT THE MYTHICAL "SPIRIT OF FREEDOM" STILL EXISTS ON THE VISTULA, AND POLAND IS NOT HUNGARY - JAROSŁAW KUISZ IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “It seemed that the machinery of national populism was working flawlessly, according to the slogan: ‘power once gained, will never be relinquished.’ The results of last year's elections in Hungary seemed to confirm this political trend in Central and Eastern Europe. Although the Hungarian opposition united and for a moment even led in the polls, ultimately in April 2022, the guru of illiberalism, Viktor Orbán, won again. Robert Fico recently returned to power in Slovakia. It seemed that the wind was filling the sails of populists.” -- THE STATE HAS BEEN LEGALLY MINED - KUISZ CONTINUES IN KL: “the state has been legally mined. The politicians of the future governing coalition should pursue sapper politics. The most important mine is the Constitutional Tribunal, dominated by PiS. It is not excluded that an institution that should uphold the rule of law will now take on the role of guardian of the illiberal course. The question of President Andrzej Duda's role also remains. Unpredictability increases his power. The opposition will wonder each time whether the president will veto the law. Moreover, such important state institutions as the NBP, the national prosecutor, and public media will remain under PiS's influence for a long time. The process of the opposition taking power will be difficult – and this statement is an understatement.” -- STRUGGLES THAT, IN A SENSE, NEVER CEASE. AND HERE THE GREAT LESSON IS NOT HUNGARY, BUT ISRAEL AND THE THREAT OF THE BENJAMIN NETANYAHU EFFECT - KUISZ CONTINUES: “However, a strong PiS should mobilize the future coalition towards strong cooperation. The parties of the former opposition should develop a diplomatic way of reaching compromises behind the scenes. Wise international cooperation is also necessary. Currently, the fight against the illiberal turn has a global dimension. Populists convince us that they are fighting for sovereignty to distract us from the fact that they are actually fighting for a political system. These are struggles that, in a sense, never cease. And here the great lesson is not Hungary, but Israel and the threat of the Benjamin Netanyahu effect. The colorful opposition removed him from the post of prime minister for only a moment. A similar scenario took place closer to home, in Slovakia, as evidenced by Fico's return to power. And PiS will still sit in the Sejm and get the most mandates.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2023/10/17/panstwo-zaminowane-prawnie-co-z-tym-zrobi-przyszla-koalicja-jaroslaw-kuisz/ -- THE LEFT IS TODAY A PARTY VERY CLEARLY TILTED TOWARDS THE WEST AND URBAN AREAS - JAKUB MAJMUREK IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “This year's result for the Left shows the ‘ground floor’ of this formation – voters willing to cast a sure vote for it despite considerable competition from the liberal center, in conditions of strong mobilization of opposition to the PiS government. The level of this ground floor is not impressive. (...) The Left is today a party very clearly tilted towards the West and urban areas. At the same time, as Kraszyna's calculations show, it is losing in the decently traditionally voting north-eastern Poland, where KO recorded significant increases in support, which may be a result of both polarization and demographic changes, the dying out of the older, post-communist electorate.” -- ZANDBERG IN THE RED. WHERE DID THE BORROWED ELECTORATE OF THE LEFT DISSIPATE? - MAJMUREK CONTINUES: “A result weaker by 460,000, in a situation where over 3 million more votes were cast in the elections, also shows how much the Left's double-digit result four years ago was based on a ‘borrowed electorate.’ In 2019, the Left received a bonus for unity, which did not work this year, and it also benefited from a weak KO campaign, which under Grzegorz Schetyna's leadership had significantly more conservative anchors than it does now. This year, some progressive proposals from Left voters could be found in the offer of KO, and even Trzecia Droga. https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/zandberg-na-minusie-gdzie-rozplynal-sie-pozyczony-elektorat-lewicy/ -- KO IS LAUNCHING THE ZERO PERCENT CREDIT PROGRAM, WHICH WILL LEAD TO RISING HOUSING PRICES. AND THE LEFT'S IDEA IS A PROSPECT OF FAVORITISM, CORRUPTION AND HINDRANCES FOR FAMILIES BUILDING HOMES AND APARTMENTS INDEPENDENTLY - WITOLD GADOMSKI IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “The first effect was an increase in housing prices, contrary to trends in other EU countries, where prices are falling. KO's more generous housing program will further raise prices. This creates a potential risk of a bubble in the real estate market. Rising housing prices make it increasingly difficult for people not covered by the program to buy them, and they are the vast majority. In other words – the majority will pay for the privilege of a certain group. Developers are happy with credit subsidies, and they will pocket record margins on apartments.” -- THERE IS NO REASON FOR THE STATE TO REPLACE PRIVATE COMPANIES IN HOUSING SUPPLY, JUST AS THERE IS NO POINT FOR THE STATE TO PRODUCE CARS, SHOES, OR CANDIES - GADOMSKI CONTINUES IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “Private developers, as well as private companies building for rent, should be provided with conditions that allow for cost reduction. Municipalities, as well as state-owned entities, including state-owned companies, should make more land available. This is an obstacle in many cities that hinders construction and increases costs. And the law must be passed, which, while protecting the tenant from eviction or sudden, significant rent increases, gives the landlord the right to flexibly set prices and remove tenants who do not pay. There is no reason for the state to replace private companies in housing supply, just as there is no point for the state to produce cars, shoes, or candies.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30327460,nie-ma-sensu-by-panstwo-budowalo-mieszkania.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Joanna Staręga-Piasek, Jerzy Kozdroń, Magdalena Jethon, Marcin Meller, Mikołaj Dowgielewicz.