state of play: 10/20/2023

POLITICAL LANDSCAPE: Szułdrzyński: All this aims to make the new government's inauguration not a triumphant post-election moment, but one steeped in a poisoned atmosphere; Pacewicz: Something happened just before or even on election day. Young people say i

Łukasz Mężyk

-- DOMAŃSKI: NOTHING THAT HAS BEEN GIVEN WILL BE TAKEN AWAY - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/10/20/ -- WHEN ARE THE NEXT ELECTIONS? - JULIA THEUS IN OKO.PRESS: “This means that the next local elections must be organized between March 31 and April 23, 2024. Here are three possible dates: April 7, 2024, April 14, 2024, or April 21, 2024. The Council of the European Union has decided that EU citizens will vote between June 6 and 9, 2024. It is likely that parliamentary elections in Poland will therefore be held on a statutory public holiday, i.e., Sunday, June 9, 2024”. https://oko.press/kiedy-kolejne-wybory-do-urn-wyborczych-pojdziemy-juz-w-2024-roku-i-to-nie-raz-kalendarz-wyborczy -- WHY PIS WANTS TO STEAL THE OPPOSITION'S HONEYMOON - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “It will still have influence over the so-called public media and the entire network of friendly media. Thanks to this, it will be able to slow down the momentum of Platforma, Trzecia Droga, and Lewica. Today they are celebrating victory, but if they do not take power in the next two months, PiS will be able to steal their honeymoon month. Incidentally, PiS will use every discussion or disagreement for propaganda purposes, claiming that the opposition is arguing or backing down from its election promises”. -- ALL THIS IS INTENDED TO ENSURE THAT THE NEW GOVERNMENT BEGINS ITS TERM NOT ON THE WAVE OF POST-ELECTION TRIUMPH, BUT IN A POISONED ATMOSPHERE - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI CONTINUES: “All this is intended to ensure that the new government begins its term not on the wave of post-election triumph, but in a poisoned atmosphere of manufactured conflicts and allegedly broken promises. And if we add to this the budgetary difficulties acknowledged by the Ministry of Finance after the elections, it is clear that PiS is doing everything possible to give Tusk the worst possible start as the new prime minister”. https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art39296841-michal-szuldrzynski-pis-chce-ukrasc-opozycji-miodowy-miesiac -- AT THIS MOMENT WE HAVE 196 VOTES FOR, 236 AGAINST, AND 28 UNKNOWN. WHICH MEANS NOT ENOUGH - MAGDALENA CHRZCZONOWICZ COUNTS IN OKO.PRESS HOW MANY DEPUTIES WOULD SUPPORT A BILL LIBERALIZING ABORTION LAW: “It is much more likely that the second bill submitted there, which decriminalizes abortion, will pass through the Sejm. It seems there is a chance that the deputies of Trzecia Droga will at least abstain, and the bill has a chance to pass. What Andrzej Duda will do with it, let's leave that for now”. https://oko.press/co-z-aborcja-w-nowym-sejmie -- POLLS DID NOT INDICATE SUCH A HUGE CHANGE. SOMETHING HAPPENED JUST BEFORE THE ELECTIONS, OR PERHAPS EVEN ON ELECTION DAY. YOUNG PEOPLE SAY IT HAD THE DYNAMICS OF A FLASH MOB - PIOTR PACEWICZ IN OKO.PRESS: “Something else happened that eludes polls and predictions. In the 2015 elections, democratic forces gained 48% of the vote, in 2019 – 48.5%. Now – 53.7%. In numbers, this looks even better: In 2015 – 7.3 million votes, in 2019 – 8.96 million, now – 11.6 million. Compared to 2015, there were over 4.3 million more democratic voters, compared to 2019 – 2.6 million votes. PiS gained 1.9 million votes compared to 2015, but lost 0.4 million compared to 2019. Polls did not indicate such a huge change. Something happened just before the elections, or perhaps even on election day. Young people say it had the dynamics of a flash mob, a 'spontaneous crowd' mobilized online. Something swept these young people (and not only them) away”. -- SOMETHING CROSSED THE LINE, WE DON'T KNOW WHAT, MAYBE IT WAS SIMPLY A CUMULATION OF STUPIDITY, RUDENESS, OBSESSION, THE ENTIRE RIGHT-WING DANSE MACABRE SUDDENLY BECAME UNBEARABLE - PACEWICZ CONTINUES: “Something crossed the line, we don't know what. Perhaps the referendum questions that insulted human intelligence? In my polling station, people loudly said 'no referendum,' and it sounded like a declaration of belonging to a community (but we also clearly wrote in OKO.press that if someone is afraid to boycott the referendum, they should take a ballot, because the elections are the most important thing). Maybe it was simply a cumulation of stupidity, rudeness, obsession, the entire right-wing danse macabre suddenly became unbearable. Did quantity turn into quality? Perhaps the two powerful marches, where generations were united by the new Polish anthem 'I cannot give up freedom,' provided the energy? Perhaps the TVP debate, where Hołownia and Scheuring-Wielgus shone?” https://oko.press/oda-do-radosci-2023-jakim-cudem-wygralismy-te-wybory -- TUSK CANNOT REPEAT HIS OWN MISTAKE, HE CANNOT GIVE UP CONTROL OVER SUCH AN IMPORTANT MINISTRY; PARTY-LOYAL FARMERS CAN BE DEPUTY MINISTERS – ON ONE HAND, MICHAŁ KOŁODZIEJCZAK, HEAD OF AGROUNIA, CAN BE A VERY VALUABLE ADVISOR, ON THE OTHER, SOMEONE FROM PSL - KRYSTYNA NASZKOWSKA IN GW: “And although there are not many people in Platforma who are interested in agriculture, it is not devoid of them. I know such people. However, party-loyal farmers can be deputy ministers – on one hand, Michał Kołodziejczak, head of Agrounia, can be a very valuable advisor, and on the other, someone from PSL. These would be two, likely often different, opinions, showing a problem from two sides, which would be even more valuable for the head of the ministry. Tusk cannot repeat his own mistake, he cannot give up control over such an important ministry. It's not just about the country's food security, or agricultural and food exports, which have become our trademark since Poland joined the EU. It's also about politics – Tusk must reclaim the countryside from PiS, because without it, it will be difficult for him to maintain power in the long run”. https://wyborcza.biz/biznes/7,177151,30320382,ministerstwo-rolnictwa-wiem-kto-nie-powinien-go-przejac-a.html -- THE COALITION PARTNERS HAVE ALREADY AGREED ON A REVOLUTION IN ZUS CONTRIBUTIONS, WHICH WILL COVER OVER 2 MILLION ENTREPRENEURS AND SELF-EMPLOYED. THERE WILL BE EXEMPTIONS FROM PAYING CONTRIBUTIONS, AND THERE WILL ALSO BE – THIS IS AN ABSOLUTE NOVELTY – A STATE PENSION FOR PERSONS RUNNING THEIR OWN BUSINESS - LESZEK KOSTRZEWSKI IN GW. https://wyborcza.biz/biznes/7,147880,30320437,donald-tusk-chce-przeprowadzic-rewolucja-w-skladkach-zus-dla.html -- POLAND, AFTER EIGHT YEARS OF DAMAGING THE STATE AND MARKET MECHANISMS, NEEDS LIBERAL REFORMS - WITOLD GADOMSKI IN GW: “Poland, after eight years of damaging the state and market mechanisms, needs liberal reforms that will stabilize the economy, strengthen the institutions necessary for its functioning, and accelerate long-term economic growth. These cannot be reduced to the radical tax cuts advocated by Konfederacja. Taxes are only one side of the macroeconomic equation. Their reduction and simplification are necessary, but will only be possible if essential savings are introduced in state finances to restore and maintain fiscal balance”. -- PRIVATIZATION IS THE ONLY WAY TO END THE PRACTICES OF STAFFING MANAGEMENT AND BOARDS WITH PARTY NOMINEES AND THEIR IMPLEMENTATION OF PARTY POLICY, WHICH ARE RUINING THE ECONOMY AND POLITICS - GADOMSKI CONTINUES: “Privatization is the only way to end the practices of staffing management and supervisory boards of companies with party nominees and their implementation of party policy, which are ruining the economy and politics. It is also a condition for maintaining media freedom, which has been funded by advertising revenues from state-owned companies in the last eight years, as well as for equal opportunities in political competition. The proceeds from privatization can be used to repair public finances, reduce the level of debt, and to rebuild the pension and social system. However, the greatest benefit would be to increase the efficiency of asset utilization, which is currently decided by politicians”. https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30320565,okiem-liberala-polska-gospodarka-potrzebuje-rynkowych-reform.html -- WILL THE LIBERALS BURN EQUALITY-BASED PISONOMICS AT THE STAKE? - RAFAŁ WOŚ IN INTERIA: “Liberals like to pose as people of reason, but they are fanatics. They have their faith. And they stick to it tenaciously. They are ready to burn their opponents at stakes built from prejudices and mental habits. They believe, for example, that public money can – in the last resort – be spent on a very small set of initiatives. One may build a highway (preferably then handing it over to private management). Or possibly on the mythical 'innovation' or 'green transformation' (which most often ends with pouring billions into the pockets of well-positioned businesses). But spend public money on social benefits? Or on the 13th or 14th pension? Or meet the expectations of trade unions and give people more free time (through free Sundays in the retail sector)? Or influence the reduction of gasoline prices through the intervention of a state-owned oil company? Such moves were a pure provocation for the majority of the liberal mainstream”. https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-czy-liberalowie-spala-na-stosie-rownosciowa-pisonomike,nId,7097198 -- IN THE MATTER OF SOCIAL POLICY, LEWICA'S ALLY WILL BE ANDRZEJ DUDA - PIOTR WÓJCIK IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “How could the mere 26 deputies of Lewica stop the liberal pests who are just getting started? It will rather be necessary to organize pilgrimages to the Presidential Palace. We have probably fallen from the frying pan into the fire. Initially, one could still delude oneself that Lewica, returning to government after 18 years, would curb the free-market ambitions of Trzecia Droga and Koalicja Obywatelska. Unfortunately, the official election results have brutally dispelled these hopes. Lewica won only 26 seats in the Sejm, thanks to which it will likely receive the post of Minister of Education and something else – perhaps the traditional consolation prize, the Ministry of Maritime Economy, which will give it the opportunity to introduce equality in the field of fisheries”. https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/w-kwestii-polityki-spolecznej-sojusznikiem-lewicy-bedzie-andrzej-duda/ -- THE SPEED OF IMPLEMENTING OPERATION "NO MONEY" IS SHOCKING - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “Do all of you (including deputies) now understand what the second Tusk government means? Everything that has been given to Poles (I quote Tusk's words, because precisely speaking, all of this was developed by the governments of Prime Minister Jarosław Kaczyński's camp) will be taken away. In addition, the announced suspension of key investments will not only put the brakes on our development and push us into the league of backward countries, but will also cause an increase in unemployment. These are the driving wheels of the Polish economy, they provide jobs and income for hundreds of thousands of people”. https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/667352-szokuje-szybkosc-wdrazania-operacji-piniendzy-nie-ma -- BELONGING TO THIS OR THAT CAMP HAS BECOME A MARKER OF DECENCY, AND EVEN HUMANITY IN POLAND - TOMASZ STAWISZYŃSKI IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “Belonging to this or that camp has become a marker of decency, and even humanity in Poland. Which, incidentally, is typical for a state of polarization and quite atypical for a democracy, characterized by the ability to differentiate beliefs and worldviews, and even a positive assessment of such differentiation. In short – the ability to express difference and to conflict, which can indeed be a war of ideas, but never turns into a civil war”. -- DO YOU REALLY THINK YOUR MOTHER, WHO VOTES FOR PIS, IS A HEARTLESS PROPONENT OF TOTALITARIANISM DESIRING THE DESTRUCTION OF THE POLISH JUDICIAL SYSTEM AND THE SUFFERING OF PEOPLE ON THE BORDER? - STAWISZYŃSKI CONTINUES IN TYGODNIK: “Meanwhile, this simple mental exercise can be the first step to getting out of a world where, instead of living people, one sees monstrous caricatures. Here are some supplementary questions. Do you really think your mother, who votes for PiS, is a heartless proponent of totalitarianism who desires the destruction of the Polish judicial system and the suffering of people on the border? Do you really believe that your uncle, who votes for Civic Coalition, is a traitor to Poland? Do you genuinely assume that your daughter, who votes for Lewica, desires the destruction of the foundations of Western civilization? Do you seriously accept that your nephew, who votes for Konfederacja, is a fascist?” -- RECOGNIZING THE POWERFUL BUSINESS-POLITICAL MACHINE THAT STRENGTHENS POLARIZATION AND PRESENTS IT TO US - WRITES STAWISZYŃSKI IN TP: “As in many other matters, a good-will gesture is needed here too. Stepping beyond one's own fantasies, acknowledging that one is not infallible. And also recognizing the powerful business-political machine that strengthens polarization and presents it to us – because it feeds on it. The only catch is that it happens at our expense”. -- EVEN ONE BOOK, WHICH KARDŁOMNIE PROVES THAT HAVING ONE'S OWN OPINION (SEEMINGLY THE FOUNDATION OF DEMOCRACY) IS "FAVORING AUTHORITARIAN POWER" – IS TRULY A SPECIFICALLY POLISH PHENOMENON - TOMASZ STAWISZYŃSKI CONTINUES IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “Of course, 'they' mean at such times sometimes one group, sometimes the other – it depends on which side of the axis the discussion is currently taking place. Incidentally, the career that the concept of 'symmetrism' has made recently – those hateful comments on social media, all those articles, and even one book, which laboriously proves that having one's own opinion (seemingly the foundation of democracy) is 'favoring authoritarian power' – is truly a specifically Polish phenomenon”. -- "SYMMETRISM" IS AN EMPTY SET, BECAUSE NO ONE CLAIMS THAT "REASON IS EQUALLY DISTRIBUTED ON BOTH SIDES." HOWEVER, ANYONE WHO CONSCIOUSLY USES THIS SLOGAN AS AN EPITHET USUALLY BENEFITS FROM POLARIZATION THEMSELVES - STAWISZYŃSKI CONTINUES: “In any case, 'symmetrism' is an empty set, because no one claims that 'reason is equally distributed on both sides.' However, anyone who consciously uses this slogan as an epithet usually benefits from polarization themselves, rhetorically condemning anyone who dares to criticize their camp's modus operandi. Which, paradoxically, is one of the most effective tools with the potential to weaken polarization. American social psychologist Peter T. Coleman writes about this extensively in his book 'The Way Out. How to Overcome Toxic Polarization.' It's a shame that zealous Polish 'symmetrist hunters' are not willing to reach for this reading. Or perhaps they know it perfectly well? Regardless, it is not surprising that radicalized groups on either side so fiercely denigrate skeptics within their own ranks”. -- THE FUEL FOR MASSIVE SOCIAL CONFLICTS AND POLARIZATION IS THE PRIMACY OF IDEAS OVER EMPIRICS, THE PRIMACY OF IMAGINATION OVER EXPERIENCE, THE PRIMACY OF INSTINCTS OVER THINKING - STAWISZYŃSKI'S CONCLUSION IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “The fuel for massive social conflicts and polarization is the primacy of ideas over empiricism, the primacy of imagination over experience, the primacy of instincts over thinking, subjectivity over what is objective and independent of individual desires, fears, and stirrings. This may sound too simple, but this is essentially what this puzzle boils down to. Everywhere, where instead of another person – with their complex life history, with their emotions, desires, sufferings, difficulties, fears, dreams, mistakes, entanglements, and flaws – I see a one-dimensional beam of my own fantasies, fears, and myths, I succumb to the seductive and destructive force of polarization. Just as they do, looking at me in a similar way”. https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/doswiadczenie-tych-wyborow-powinno-byc-dla-nas-przelomowe-184998 -- DOES THIS MEAN THAT ZIOBRO WILL STRIKE NOW AND START FIGHTING FOR THE LEADERSHIP OF PIS? THE MOMENT IS GOOD, PIS IS STUNNED BY THE DEFEAT - GALOPUJĄCY MAJOR IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “Does this mean that Ziobro will strike now and start fighting for the leadership of PiS? The moment is good, PiS is stunned by the defeat. Beata Szydło – Ziobro's ally for many years – is probably sharpening her teeth for the presidency. In the PiS electorate, they still remember her as the one who introduced the 500+ program and did not lock anyone at home due to the pandemic. And even if her electoral chances seem small today, it does not mean that she herself will not want to fight for the nomination. In a duo with Ziobro, she has great chances for this, because after the electoral defeat, the camp of Kaczyński, Błaszczak, and Brudziński seems very weak. On the other hand, Morawiecki is widely blamed by PiS deputies for the defeat and for painting a rosy picture”. https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/czy-ziobro-odbierze-partie-kaczynskiemu/ -- BIRTHDAYS: Malgorzata Smierzycka.

Łukasz Mężyk