-- TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: PRESIDENT'S CONSULTATIONS WITH THE NEW SEJM CLUBS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/10/19/ -- COALITION AGREEMENT ON NOVEMBER 11? - AS WRITES AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK IN OKO.PRESS: "When will the coalition agreement be signed? Jan Grabiec, spokesperson for Civic Platform, stated on Polsat that 'around November 11, we will know the most important decisions regarding the government's structure.' Will the coalition agreement between KO, Third Way, and The Left be signed then? 'I don't know anything about it,' comments a prominent Third Way politician in an interview with OKO.press. 'It's a probable date,' state two politicians from The Left. Such a date would simply follow from the calendar. If the Sejm convenes on November 13 (Monday), the democrats' coalition will announce its agreements a day or two earlier. Third Way wants the agreement to be public." -- DISPUTE WITHIN THIRD WAY OVER THE MARSHAL OF THE SEJM? - SZCZĘŚNIAK CONTINUES: "Why does Third Way want the Marshal of the Sejm? It's important to remember that this involves two parties with different motivations. Szymon Hołownia aims to lead the Sejm to distance himself from the day-to-day work of the government. Prestige, combined with non-involvement in daily government work, is intended to help him in his presidential campaign in 2025. Hołownia plans to run for president again. However, he may have a competitor within his own parliamentary club. The current Deputy Marshal, Piotr Zgorzelski from PSL, is also interested in the Marshal's position. Speculation has circulated within The Left that Włodzimierz Czarzasty, also a former Deputy Marshal, would like to take the Marshal's seat. But given The Left's weaker election results, can he count on such a high-profile position?" https://oko.press/rozmowy-o-przyszlym-rzadzie-dogadamy-sie -- WE MUST DRAW THOSE WHO SUPPORTED AUTHORITARIAN POPULISM INTO THE DEMOCRATIC CAMP. WE WON'T CONVINCE EVERYONE, BUT IF WE CAN REDUCE AUTHORITARIAN RIGHT-WING TO BELOW 20 PERCENT OF VOTES, DEMOCRACY WILL BE RELATIVELY SAFE - JACEK ŻAKOWSKI IN GW. -- WHAT WILL HELP WIN OVER VOTERS OF THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT TO THE SIDE OF DEMOCRACY - ŻAKOWSKI CONTINUES: "There are matters on which we must not waver. Women's rights, the rule of law, punishing the guilty, free media, schools, and education. Everything else must be evaluated by a single criterion: will it help win over voters of the current government to the side of democracy? Otherwise, before we know it, we'll be thrashed again, just as we thrashed Kaczyński. And then we'll have to wait even longer for a rematch." https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30317668,spuscilismy-im-lomot-i-co-dalej.html -- PIS COULD WIN A THIRD TERM IF IT STOPPED BEING PIS - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: "So, could one preserve the good things that PiS did, without all that radicalism, the tendency towards building illiberal democracy, without all those despotic ideas and the war with the media? No. Because this is precisely what has become the distinguishing characteristic of Law and Justice in recent years. This was the direction Jarosław Kaczyński gave this party. This was the element of PiS's transformation from a moderate center-right party into a national-populist formation. And this is a product of Kaczyński's discovery of the mechanisms of mass identity politics." -- IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO IMAGINE A PiS THAT WOULD BE A NORMAL RIGHT-WING PARTY, WITHOUT ALL THOSE MADNESSES AND RADICALISMS THAT FINALLY LED TO IT HAVING TO GIVE UP POWER, EVEN THOUGH IT WON THE ELECTION - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI'S CONCLUSION: "It is impossible to imagine a PiS that would be a normal right-wing party, without all those madnesses and radicalisms that ultimately led to it having to relinquish power, even though it won the election. Because this policy remained attractive to 35 percent of society. PiS has undergone a transformation in the last decade or so that cannot be reversed today. And its electorate demands that it be even sharper, even more radical, even more hysterical, from an even higher C, with even greater emphasis. And if it doesn't get that, it will look for someone who will satisfy its aroused hunger for emotions elsewhere." https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art39287811-michal-szuldrzynski-pis-moglby-wygrac-trzecia-kadencje-gdyby-przestal-byc-pis-em -- THE NEW GOVERNMENT MUST TURN THE COUNTRY AWAY FROM THE PATH OF SOFT AUTHORITARIANISM, HOLD PIS ACCOUNTABLE, AND RETURN TO THE PATH OF DEMOCRACY - JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: "A white paper detailing all abuses and holding the guilty accountable is also necessary. Without a closing balance and drawn conclusions, including personnel ones, it will be impossible to make up for lost time, let alone move forward." https://www.rp.pl/analizy-rzeczpospolitej/art39289691-jacek-nizinkiewicz-co-powinno-zmienic-sie-w-polsce-po-utracie-wladzy-przez-pis -- THE SPEED OF IMPLEMENTING THE "NO MONEY" OPERATION IS SHOCKING - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: "The speed of implementing the 'no money' operation is shocking. Evidently, Tusk's German patrons want to push us into poverty immediately. (...) Let's add to this picture the reminder that on election day, Szymon Hołownia was delighted that we had 'the end of handouts.' Soon, as some PO politicians suggested before the election, additional pensions will be taken away. Do all (including MPs) now understand what Tusk's second government means? Everything that has been given to Poles (I quote Tusk's words, as precisely speaking, all of this was earned by the governments of Prime Minister Jarosław Kaczyński's camp) will be taken away. In addition, the announced suspension of key investments will not only put the brakes on our development and relegate us to the league of backward countries but also cause an increase in unemployment. These are the flywheels of the Polish economy, providing jobs and income for hundreds of thousands of people." https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/667352-szokuje-szybkosc-wdrazania-operacji-piniendzy-nie-ma -- PIS WILL NOT INITIALLY CHALLENGE THE ELECTION RESULTS, BUT WILL LATER UNLEASH THE NARRATIVE OF STOLEN ELECTIONS. WE HAVE OBSERVED THIS MANY TIMES BEFORE, E.G., REGARDING THE STRATEGY TOWARDS THE SMOLENSK CATASTROPHE. POPULISM WILL NOT END IN POLAND AFTER THESE ELECTIONS, ALTHOUGH WE WOULD WISH IT WOULD – PROF. PRZEMYSŁAW SADURA TELLS ŁUKASZ LIPIŃSKI ON THE TYGODNIK POLITYKA PORTAL. -- THE LEFT STANDS, ALTHOUGH WEAKENED, IT HAS LOST, BUT WITHOUT IT WE WOULD HAVE HAD NO CHANCE TO TAKE POWER FROM PIS - SADURA CONTINUES WITH LIPIŃSKI: "I wouldn't want to kick someone while they're down, especially since it's not the case that The Left is down. It stands, it is weakened; it not only hasn't gained but has lost compared to previous elections, but without it, we would have had no chance to take power from PiS. At the same time, this result is more than a yellow card for the current leaders and their methods of mobilizing voters, and especially female voters. The lack of courage in deciding to entrust influence over The Left to young female politicians is part of the explanation for this weaker result." -- TODAY'S OPPOSITION SHOULD FULFILL SOME ELECTION PROMISES TO AVOID LOSING SUPPORT, AND AT THE SAME TIME MUST GRADUALLY SHED THE POPULIST COSTUME - SADURA STILL WITH LIPIŃSKI: "Today's democratic opposition won these elections partly due to a change in campaign strategy and adopting a populist costume. Now, it should fulfill some election promises to avoid losing support, while simultaneously gradually shedding this costume. Otherwise, in a few years, it will turn out that not as much has changed as we would have liked." https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2231310,1,przemyslaw-sadura-dla-polityki-pis-szykuje-scenariusz-ktory-juz-kiedys-widzielismy.read -- I CAN IMAGINE THAT IN TWO YEARS RAFAL TRZASKOWSKI WILL TAKE OVER THIS POSITION, AND THE 68-YEAR-OLD TUSK WILL CROWN HIS CAREER AS PRESIDENT - ERNEST SKALSKI IN GW: "It's hard to imagine Donald Tusk not becoming prime minister. For my own use, I can imagine that in two years, Rafał Trzaskowski will take over this position, and the 68-year-old Tusk will crown his career as President of the Republic of Poland, exceptionally effective in Europe and worldwide, and popular in the country." -- THE NATION MUST SEE HOW PIS HAS INDEBTED US AND OUR DESCENDANTS - SKALSKI CONTINUES: "It would be good for the first concrete step of the joint body to be the establishment of a commission to hold accountable the eight years of PiS rule. First and foremost, the true finances of the state, those outside the official budget, must be revealed. The nation must see how PiS has indebted us and our descendants." -- THIS MUST BE DONE RIGHT NOW; LATER PEOPLE WILL PERCEIVE IT AS PIŚ-LIKE TALK ABOUT PREDECESSORS: "This must be done right now, when quick re-elections cannot yet be ruled out. In a few months, people will have other problems, and holding Kaczyński and his people accountable will be perceived the same way as PiS's talk about the governments of 'our predecessors.'" https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30317799,co-warto-zrobic-na-przednowku-zanim-zmienimy-wladze.html -- A DISPUTE WITH DUDA OVER ABORTION WILL BENEFIT PRIME MINISTER TUSK - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: "If Duda vetoes, for example, the depenalization of abortion bill, the new government will not cry. Demonstrators will gather under the Presidential Palace, threatening the president. Inflaming emotions over abortion will bring relief to the new cabinet, which will have to contend with economic difficulties. PiS is leaving the country to its successors with high inflation, a weak budget, and sluggish economic growth, and even recession. By rejecting any compromise or talks, the president only worsens his own situation and that of his camp – after all, Kaczyński lost power largely due to the barbaric decision of Julia Przyłębska's Constitutional Tribunal to almost completely outlaw abortion." -- TRUMP IN DUDA'S AND MASTALEREK'S CALCULATIONS - WIELOWIEYSKA CONTINUES: "In Duda's and Mastalerek's calculations, a role is played by the conviction that the Democrats in the USA will lose and Trump will return to power, and then Duda's position will radically change: he will have a monopoly on relations with Washington. And the prospects for an international position after his term ends will reappear, having recently faded." https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,30318362,wielowieyska-spor-z-duda-o-aborcje-bedzie-na-reke-premierowi.html -- IT IS WORTH RESTRAINING EMOTIONS. AND THE ISSUE OF POTENTIAL LIBERALIZATION OF ABORTION LAW SHOULD BE POSTPONED TO THE FUTURE - MAŁGORZATA SOLECKA IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: "It is worth restraining emotions. And the issue of potential liberalization of abortion law should be postponed to the future – definitely beyond the horizon of the first hundred days of government. The reason is obvious, and it's not about the expected veto from PSL or the common vote of the peasant party with PiS and Confederation, which would be a fatal signal at the beginning of the term." -- EVEN IF THE LAW WERE PASSED (ALTHOUGH IT IS UNLIKELY), THE PRESIDENT'S VETO IS CERTAIN; JULIA PRZYŁĘBSKA'S CONSTITUTIONAL TRIBUNAL WOULD CERTAINLY RULE THE ADOPTED LAW INCOMPATIBLE WITH THE CONSTITUTION - SOLECKA CONTINUES IN TP: "Even if the law were passed (although it is unlikely), the president's veto is certain. But the president is not the most important reason why politicians should not deal with abortion at this moment. The most important one is Julia Przyłębska's Constitutional Tribunal, which would certainly rule the adopted law incompatible with the Constitution, 'incidentally' perhaps even finding unconstitutional the premise allowing legal abortion in cases where pregnancy is the result of a crime or when the mother's health and life are endangered. Impossible? Of course, it's possible." -- FIRSTLY, THE RAPID REALIZATION OF THOSE PROMISES IN THE AREA OF WOMEN'S REPRODUCTIVE RIGHTS THAT DO NOT REQUIRE CHANGES TO STATUTES - SOLECKA CONTINUES: "First, the quickest possible realization of those promises in the area of women's reproductive rights that do not require statutory changes. Emergency contraception without a prescription – a change in regulation, one signature, would suffice here. However, the government can provide more by including – fully or partially – contraceptive drugs in reimbursement. And make access to them more realistic – not only gynecologists but also primary care physicians could issue prescriptions for contraception, which would be valuable, especially considering the advanced privatization of gynecological care." -- PRACTICE HAS GONE MUCH FURTHER THAN THE LEGAL STATE. ENSURING SUCH SITUATIONS DO NOT OCCUR ALSO REQUIRES NO STATUTORY CHANGES AND DOES NOT VIOLATE CURRENT REGULATIONS - SOLECKA WRITES FURTHER IN TYGODNIK: "Secondly, the awareness that the abortion issue is not just about regulations but also about practice. What most ignited the public imagination and intensified anger were, on the one hand, the deaths of pregnant women admitted to hospitals with pregnancies threatening their health and lives, and on the other hand, high-profile interventions by the police and prosecution against women who had taken abortifacients. In both cases, practice has gone much further than the legal state. Ensuring that such situations do not occur also requires no statutory changes and does not violate current regulations." https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/partie-opozycji-roznia-sie-w-podejsciu-do-aborcji-czy-porozni-przyszly-rzad-185070 -- PKO: CONSUMER SENTIMENT IS STEADILY IMPROVING: https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/10/18/pko-nastroje-konsumentow-sukcesywnie-sie-poprawiaja/ -- 22 YEARS AGO, LESZEK MILLER BECAME PRIME MINISTER. -- BIRTHDAYS: Stanisław Gądecki, Beata Mazurek, Robert Lubański.