-- KOSINIAK-KAMYSZ: I RULE OUT A COALITION WITH PIS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/10/16/ -- LATE POLL RESULTS PUBLISHED BEFORE 8 AM: Law and Justice - 36.6 percent. Civic Coalition - 31.0 percent. Third Way (Polska 2050 and PSL) - 13.5 percent. New Left - 8.6 percent. Confederation - 6.4 percent. -- ROMAN GIERTYCH IS ALMOST CERTAINLY ENTERING THE SEJM, CURRENTLY RYSZARD PETRU HAS FEWER VOTES ON THE 3D LIST THAN MICHAŁ KOBOSKO AND WŁADYSŁAW BARTOSZEWSKI, JANUSZ KOWALSKI MAY NOT ENTER THE SEJM. -- KOBOSKO FOR OKO.PRESS: WE APPEAL TO THE PRESIDENT NOT TO DELAY THE PROCESS OF FORMING A NEW GOVERNMENT: “We hope and at the same time appeal to the President not to unduly prolong the process of forming a government. If the results are confirmed, the only possible coalition is a coalition of KO, Third Way, and the Left. President Andrzej Duda, in the spirit of responsibility for the country, should not delay the formation of a new government.” https://oko.press/kobosko-trzecia-droga-apelujemy-do-prezydenta -- THE DEMOCRATIC OPPOSITION MUST GO ON THE OFFENSIVE TODAY - ROMAN IMIELSKI IN GW: “Leaders of the democratic opposition should hold a joint press conference as soon as possible and announce that they are ready to form a new government. And that the candidate for Prime Minister is Donald Tusk. Firstly, this would be an element of pressure on President Duda. Secondly, it would show citizens that there will be no chaos, which PiS threatened with, because the democratic opposition will calmly finalize the government. Thirdly, it would be a clear signal to Jarosław Kaczyński and his people to forget about bribing anyone, because it simply won't work.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,30307000,demokratyczna-opozycja-juz-dzis-musi-przejsc-do-ofensywy.html -- THERE WILL BE A LETTER TO THE PRESIDENT WITH TUSK'S CANDIDACY - WRITES MICHAŁ KOLANKO IN RZ: “According to our information, opposition politicians are considering that after the announcement of the election results by the National Election Commission, all elected MPs will sign a letter designating a common candidate for Prime Minister – Donald Tusk.” https://www.rp.pl/wybory/art39271971-kto-wspolnym-kandydatem-opozycji-na-premiera-nieoficjalnie-bedzie-list-ws-tuska -- PIS DID NOT EXPECT SUCH A SUCCESS - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN INTERIA: “The fact that after two terms, PiS was able to take first place is a phenomenon. This has never happened in the history of the Third Republic. SLD, AWS, again SLD, PiS after their first term, and finally PO after two terms, always dropped to further positions. Sometimes, like AWS and SLD the second time around, they even fell apart, ending up below the threshold or with minimal parliamentary representation. This is not the case here. PiS lost, but they dictated the narrative during the campaign, forcing the opposition to equivocate on issues such as the protection of Polish borders, fears of immigration, rejection of privatization, or their stance on the federalizing plans of the European Union elites.” -- NOW EVEN AS A LOSER, PIS, WITH ITS PRESIDENT FOR ANOTHER TWO YEARS, WILL REMAIN AN IMPORTANT ACTOR ON THE SCENE - ZAREMBA CONTINUES: “Now, even as a loser, PiS, with its president for another two years, will remain an important actor on the scene. They are capable of blocking any serious project by the victors. Unless the coalition led by Tusk decides to circumvent the law. Such announcements were made, perhaps they were just rhetoric. But it's possible they weren't. We have not yet had such toxic electoral polarization. Its product is hope for revenge, especially within the main opposition bloc, the Civic Coalition.” -- THIS IS A PECULIAR VICTORY OF BIG CITIES OVER PROVINCIAL POLAND, VILLAGES, AND THE PROVINCE MORE BROADLY - ZAREMBA CONTINUES: “If the forecast is confirmed, the main reason for the electoral shift can be indicated. With the gigantic mobilization of all electorates, resulting in a turnout of over 72 percent, this is a peculiar victory of big cities over provincial Poland, villages, and the province more broadly. To what extent was this a matter of clashing real interests? And to what extent was it the conviction of people from larger centers that supporting more 'European', 'modern', 'rule of law' opposition groups in a peculiar way ennobles them, is an expression of aspirations towards the middle class or elite?” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/raport-wybory-parlamentarne-2023/news-opozycja-chyba-wygrala-pis-w-pewnym-sensie-tez-ale-nie-takie,nId,7089087 -- PARTNERS - DESPITE SIGNIFICANTLY WORSE RESULTS, THEY WILL BENEFIT FROM A COMFORTABLE POSITION AS A SWING VOTE - PRZEMYSŁAW SZUBARTOWICZ IN INTERIA: “Tusk must be ready to take a step, or even two, back if the possibility of forming an effective government coalition depends on it. The partners – despite significantly worse results (especially the left, which is unable to attract new voters) – will benefit from a comfortable swing vote position. They will set programmatic and personal conditions that the leader of the largest opposition coalition will have to consider to form a future government or be its midwife. In this sense, the greatest responsibility rests with him to ensure that the new government does not collapse for four years and can implement its plans.” -- DETACHING HIMSELF FROM PIS WILL BE BENEFICIAL FOR THE PRESIDENT - SZUBARTOWICZ CONTINUES: “Of course, PiS can prolong its rule for some time. President Andrzej Duda may entrust the mission of forming a new cabinet to the formal winner, procedures may drag on, but ultimately power will be taken by the one who effectively creates a coalition government, and the opposition is capable of doing so. Will the president block all the new government's reforms for the next two years? In the long run, it will not pay off for him, and he himself may dream of creating a new political center on the right. Detaching himself from PiS will be beneficial for him.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/raport-wybory-parlamentarne-2023/news-przegrani-wygrani-wygrani-przegrani,nId,7089079 -- THERE IS A FOUNDATION TO BUILD UPON - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “In historical context, we are not in a tragic situation: the independence camp will have around 200 seats in the Sejm. There have been times when it had only a few individuals. This is a great success for Jarosław Kaczyński, and a powerful capital for the future. Including the immediate future: Poland's independence is truly threatened today.” -- PIS WILL HAVE ENOUGH VOTES TO SUSTAIN PRESIDENTIAL VETOES - KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: “Much, perhaps everything, will depend on President Andrzej Duda. It is his determination that can save what can be saved today. He can cool down heads heated by the desire for revenge, he can defend the constitutional and institutional order, as well as the foundations of media pluralism. Importantly, Law and Justice, as it now appears, will have enough votes to sustain presidential vetoes.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/666865-pamietajmy-walka-o-polske-nie-konczy-sie-nigdy -- THE SIZE OF THE DEFEAT IS EVEN GREATER BECAUSE THE REFERENDUM RESULT IS ALSO UNFAVORABLE TO PIS - MAREK KĘSKRAWIEC IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “The size of the defeat is even greater because the referendum result is also unfavorable to PiS. 40% of voters participated, which means that the answers to the questions about the migration pact, the barrier on the border with Belarus, the retirement age, and privatization – have no legal significance. The referendum is non-binding.” -- THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT WILL CERTAINLY DO MUCH TO MAXIMALLY EXAGGERATE ANY EMERGING ELECTION PROTESTS AND SHAKE FAITH IN THE LEGITIMACY OF THE VOTE - KĘSKRAWIEC CONTINUES: “This will likely happen on Tuesday around noon, although it may not be that simple, as PiS realizes that losing power is not only saying goodbye to positions in the government, ministries, central offices, state-controlled companies, and the funds and agencies that have been growing for years – it is also the beginning, at least for some politicians, of accountability proceedings for alleged crimes during the brutal changes in the Polish judiciary system, as well as for enacting laws in the context of the pandemic and the attempt to organize 'envelope elections' in 2020. The current government will certainly do much to maximally exaggerate any emerging election protests and shake faith in the legitimacy of the vote.” https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/zwyciestwo-opozycji-i-rekordowa-frekwencja-co-wiemy-o-wyniku-wyborow-184992 -- IN A POLITICAL SENSE, PIS HAS SUFFERED A PAINFUL DEFEAT, EVEN A ROUT - ŁUKASZ LIPIŃSKI ON TYGODNIK POLITYKA PORTAL: “it seems that PiS is the formal winner of these elections in the sense of a cycling race – they came to the finish line first. But in a political sense, they have likely suffered a painful defeat, even a rout. Because in politics, the winner is the one who is able to form a government, and PiS will likely not be able to do so. And not just on their own, as they have for the past eight years – Jarosław Kaczyński, with about 200 PiS deputies in the Sejm, will not be able to buy or blackmail additional MPs to gather a majority. Even a potential coalition with Confederation, which was extremely weakened in the final stretch of the campaign, may not give Kaczyński a majority.” -- ONLY BY OVERCOMING THESE CHALLENGES WILL THE OPPOSITION HAVE A STARTING POINT TO CONFRONT THE CONSEQUENCES OF EIGHT YEARS OF POPULIST RULE - ŁUKASZ LIPIŃSKI CONTINUES: “And there will be a host of problems: the war in Ukraine, high prices, and problems with energy transformation will not disappear simply by the opposition taking power; in some time, we will learn the true state of public finances. Rule of law will not be restored on its own (though here the opposition seems to have a coordinated plan, developed with social organizations). Only by overcoming these challenges will the opposition have a starting point to begin confronting the consequences of eight years of populist rule in Poland and restore liberal democracy. But that is still a long way off…” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2231120,1,pis-wygral-ale-chyba-przegral-czy-pozycja-partii-kaczynskiego-zacznie-sie-kruszyc.read -- THE LEFT IS LIKE PIS. THEY BOTH WON AND LOST SIMULTANEOUSLY - ŁUKASZ ROGOJSZ IN INTERIA: “This last issue, the reduction of the left-wing team in the Sejm, will undoubtedly be a subject of discussions and meetings within the Left, as there will certainly be dissatisfied and wronged individuals. Will it also be a subject of reckoning? The chances of that are much smaller if the Left actually finds itself in the new government. After an 18-year break, this is an incredibly important issue for them – both politically and in terms of prestige. And for those who will not be in the Sejm, it's a chance to find a political haven in one of the ministries.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/raport-wybory-parlamentarne-2023/news-lewica-jak-pis-jednoczesnie-wygrali-i-przegrali-maja-sie-z-c,nId,7089115 -- WE ARE REGAINING HOPE - MICHAŁ SUTOWSKI IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “The 'normals' were supposed to stay home, scared or disgusted by the fascist ranting and cacophony of insults. Fortunately, they didn't, but went to vote in numbers unprecedented in the Third Republic – and in free elections only in 1919 (!) were there more voters. (...) today we have the right to be happy that something has finally worked out for us in this unfortunate politics, that democracy is both alive and worked in our favor – even though many wanted to degrade it, humiliate it, and make it utterly repulsive to ordinary people. And most importantly, we have the right to hope again. For this, I thank Polish women and men on the late evening of October 15, 2023.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/wybory-parlamentarne-2023-exit-poll/ -- JACEK GĄDEK ON THE GRAVE FACES AT PIS: “- Whether it's ten seats one way or the other, it shouldn't change the essence of the matter. The opposition is taking power, and we can basically be sure of that – said Jacek Gądek from Gazeta.pl. - When I had the opportunity to be at that very short election evening of PiS yesterday, everyone there basically knew from the beginning – indicated the journalist. - There were almost grave faces. High-ranking PiS politicians fled very quickly – he added.” -- PIS WILL CERTAINLY WANT THESE LAST WEEKS TO BE REALLY SIGNIFICANT - CLAIMS GĄDEK: “- I'm not predicting tanks, armored vehicles, and the army on the streets right away. I think that with some convulsions, but still, PiS will give up power. Only at the end – as is often the case with PiS – some great success will be announced, flowers, a parade, and the declaration 'we kept our word' – commented Gądek. The journalist also assessed that the end of PiS's rule 'will certainly be recorded in history in some way.' – PiS will certainly want these last weeks to be really significant – he said.” https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,30305829,poranek-wyborczy-startuje-o-swicie-gazeta-pl-po-wyborach.html -- FORMER WARSAW SECRETARY, CURRENTLY IN DETENTION, MAY BECOME... A MEMBER OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT - MICHAŁ WOJTCZUK IN GW: “A cascade of changes related to MEP Krzysztof Hetman most likely becoming a Member of Parliament may lead to Włodzimierz Karpiński taking over his seat as an MEP. He is the former secretary of Warsaw, involved in the waste affair. He has been in detention since February.” https://warszawa.wyborcza.pl/warszawa/7,54420,30307000,niezwykly-efekt-wyborow-parlamentarnych-przebywajacy-w-areszcie.html -- PIS BUNKERS - PAWEŁ WROŃSKI IN GW: “Even after losing the elections, PiS will retain its strongholds. The first of these is the office of the president itself. Andrzej Duda did not hide his support for PiS in this election campaign, and his officials were candidates for PiS MPs. The president's term ends in the summer of 2025, and overturning his eventual veto requires a majority of 276 MPs. No grouping in the Third Republic has ever had that many. Law and Justice has also captured Julia Przyłębska's Constitutional Tribunal, whose verdicts on the conformity of laws with the constitution are final. Term limits are also constitutionally enshrined within other bodies, such as: the National Council of the Judiciary, the National Broadcasting Council, the Monetary Policy Council, and the position of President of the National Bank of Poland.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,30304170,tak-bedzie-tworzyl-sie-nowy-rzad-duda-w-roli-rozgrywajacego.html -- PEKAO ANALYSTS: A RELATIVELY SOLID TRADE SURPLUS PERSISTS https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/10/14/analitycy-pekao-utrzymuje-sie-wzglednie-solidna-nadwyzka-w-saldzie-handlowym/ -- BIRTHDAYS: Maciej Wąsik, Michał Kuczmierowski, Tomasz Cimoszewicz, Jerzy Kwieciński, Jarosław Katulski, Zbigniew Dziewulski.