state of play: 10/06/2023

STATE OF PLAY: Bodnar on Moving Beyond Past Grievances, Szczęśniak on Moods in Civic Coalition: Tusk's Approach, PKO: We Estimate the Overall Sector Deficit in 2024 Will Be 4.6% of GDP and Approximately 1pp Lower Than the 2023 Result

Łukasz Mężyk

-- KAMIŃSKI: PEDOPHILIA CASES MUST BE UNCONDITIONALLY COMBATED. SEARCHES AND EVIDENCE COLLECTION ARE UNDERWAY IN THIS MATTER - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/10/06/ -- WE CANNOT IGNORE EVERYTHING THAT HAS HAPPENED AND SUDDENLY ANNOUNCE, I DON'T KNOW, A NEW POLITICS OF LOVE. THOSE TIMES ARE OVER. WE NEED MECHANISMS OF RESPONSIBILITY ADAPTED TO VARIOUS TYPES OF VIOLATIONS, TO BLACK, BUT ALSO TO VARIOUS SHADES OF GRAY. STATE TRIBUNAL FOR POLITICIANS, CRIMINAL PROCEEDINGS FOR ABUSE OF POWER - ADAM BODNAR IN CONVERSATION WITH GRZEGORZ WYSOCKI IN GAZETA.PL: "Firstly, we need a binding element for all these actions. This binding element can only be the constitution and constitutional values. Secondly, we must refer to the best traditions of our statehood, especially the 1990s, when this system was taking shape. Thirdly, if law is to be the binding element, there must also be a regime of accountability for violations. We cannot ignore everything that has happened and suddenly announce, I don't know, a new politics of love. Those times are over. We need mechanisms of responsibility adapted to various types of violations, to black, but also to various shades of gray. A State Tribunal for politicians, criminal proceedings for abuse of power, but also truth commissions allowing for the analysis of unethical actions, which nevertheless consolidated power. I hope many people will want to confess, just as two judges did, some of the 'heroes' of the justice system's hate scandal." -- SO, NO "LET'S LOVE EACH OTHER!" FOR SURE? THERE WILL BE NONE - FURTHER EXCERPT FROM WYSOCKI'S CONVERSATION WITH BODNAR: “There will be none. I hope that political leaders, on the one hand, will tell Poles about a long-term vision for Poland, and on the other hand – about something I would call self-limitation. I am very pleased that in the specific proposals of Civic Coalition, there is a desire to introduce clear procedures and competitions for nomination processes to State Treasury companies. This is about returning the state to the citizens. Of course, we will not eliminate all existing problems, and it certainly won't be perfect right away, especially since the other side will be intent on undermining everything we do. Just to get back into power. But we must be above that, we must be wiser and invest long-term." -- DO YOU KNOW WHAT I DREAM OF? THAT DONALD TUSK - I THINK HE WILL BE PRIME MINISTER IF WE WIN THE ELECTION - GETS ON THE SEJM'S PODIUM AND STARTS HIS SPEECH WITH THE WORDS: "LADIES AND GENTLEMEN, FROM THIS MOMENT ON, WE WILL ADHERE TO THE CONSTITUTION" - BODNAR CONTINUES WITH WYSOCKI: “However lofty it may sound: I would like to achieve the return to the normal path of Poland's membership in the EU and the normal path of the rule of law. Do you know what I dream of? That Donald Tusk – I think he will be Prime Minister if we win the election – gets on the Sejm's podium and starts his speech with the words: 'Ladies and gentlemen, from this moment on, we will adhere to the Constitution, we will respect the law, everyone will be held accountable for disrespecting the law, and the law will become sacred!'" -- BODNAR CRITICALLY ON THE LEFT'S PROPOSAL OF A 35-HOUR WORK WEEK - HE STATES IN GAZETA.PL: “Okay. And will this beautiful proposal also apply to entrepreneurs running sole proprietorships? Or to liberal professions? Or perhaps to workers performing work through online platforms (e.g., Uber Eats or Bolt)? Are we already at a level of economic development where we can afford solutions applicable in Scandinavian countries? Is our economy already so strongly based on knowledge and high work processing? I simply have a lot of doubts." -- I HAVE BEEN TALKING AND WILL CONTINUE TO TALK ABOUT PUSHBACKS - BODNAR FURTHER: “I will answer this way: I am going to the Senate in order to constantly remind people of constitutional values. And I have been talking and will continue to talk about pushbacks and human rights violations at the border." https://weekend.gazeta.pl/weekend/7,177333,30265911,adam-bodnar-po-wygranej-z-pis-em-nie-bedzie-zadnej-polityki.html -- IF THERE ARE NO UNFORESEEN DISPUTES, THE END OF THE CAMPAIGN WILL BE A MATCH BETWEEN TWO FORCES – THE GOVERNMENT AND THE OPPOSITION - ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA IN RZ: “If there are no unforeseen disputes, the end of the campaign will be a match between two forces – the government and the opposition. PiS, for now, is stuck in its polarizing harsh rhetoric and is hastily using all financial and organizational instruments it has planned for this moment. The opposition has prepared a warm message about a better and kinder Poland." https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art39225361-zuzanna-dabrowska-nastal-czas-zgody-na-opozycji -- WE ASK IF DONALD TUSK WILL THEN BE PRACTICING "POLITICS OF LOVE" ON TVP. "YES" – WE HEAR FROM A PERSON ON THE CIVIC COALITION BOARD - AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK IN OKO.PRESS: “We ask if Donald Tusk will then be practicing 'politics of love' on TVP. 'Yes' – we hear from a person on the Civic Coalition board. 'We need to show that we are different.' This concerns two things: Tusk has to prove that he is different from how the PiS propaganda portrays him. And at the same time – that he differs from PiS: he doesn't strike with a symbolic club, he is not aggressive. The goal is for viewers to see that Tusk is being attacked without reason. 'People don't like that,' we hear. 'He will come with a positive message. He will say: you portray me as anti-Polish, and I love all of you' – speculates one of the opposition strategists in an interview with OKO.press. 'He will show himself to PiS voters as a victim.'" -- DONALD WILL BE THE WINNER REGARDLESS" – BELIEVES A PERSON FROM THE CIVIC COALITION BOARD - SZCZĘŚNIAK FURTHER IN OKO: “Tusk can only win from this,” we hear from the Third Way campaign staff. “Donald will be the winner regardless,” believes a person from the Civic Coalition board. “We will pursue reconciliation,” reveals a Third Way strategist. “The Left will focus on boring substance and predictability, Civic Coalition on politics of love.” -- "WŁODEK IS THE MAIN FACE OF THE LEFT TODAY" – ADMITS A PERSON FROM THE CAMPAIGN STAFF - SZCZĘŚNIAK FURTHER IN OKO.PRESS: “With two prime ministers (former and current), the debate gains a different political weight. Among Left politicians, only Włodzimierz Czarzasty has similar significance. He participated in the highest-level opposition talks with Tusk. And recently, he gave a powerful speech at the March of a Million Hearts. 'Włodek is the main face of the Left today,' admits a person from the campaign staff. 'He has the greatest recognition, apart from Robert [Biedroń].' The Left campaign is not considering Biedroń. Among women, the candidates are the 'avengers,' the three campaign leaders of the Left: Magdalena Biejat, Agnieszka Dziemianowicz-Bąk, and Joanna Scheuring-Wielgus." https://oko.press/na-debacie-w-tvp-donald-tusk-bedzie-uprawial-polityke-milosci -- THE LEFT'S PROGRAM IS 7/10. NOT BAD FOR THIS CAMPAIGN - JAKUB MAJMUREK IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “I would rate the program 7/10. Not bad for Polish politics in 2023. It won't get better anytime soon. Of course, the Left has no chance of fully implementing its postulates. A few would be a success. But a good result for this type of program can help bring very important issues closer to the center of Polish public debate: social housing, strengthening public services, empowering and protecting workers in the 21st-century economy, and a solid set of freedom-oriented postulates." -- THERE LIES A CERTAIN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE DEMOCRATIC OPPOSITION, ESPECIALLY IF YOUNG WOMEN MOBILIZE - PROF. JACEK RACIBORSKI IN GW: “It is unlikely that we will see a similar majority of women among voters in the upcoming parliamentary elections, but there may be several hundred thousand more of them than men. In a Kantar poll conducted at the beginning of September, 67% of women declared their intention to participate, and significantly fewer men – 64%. There lies a certain opportunity for the democratic opposition, especially if young women, whose electoral preferences are completely different from those of older women, mobilize." -- AGAIN, SIMILAR TO 2019, WE ARE LOOKING AT A DIFFERENCE OF ABOUT TEN PERCENTAGE POINTS BETWEEN THE YOUNGEST VOTER COHORT AND THE SUBSEQUENT COHORTS - PROF. RACIBORSKI FURTHER IN GW: “In the last presidential elections, the young generation mobilized and expressed significantly different preferences than the oldest generations. The catch is that pre-election polls indicate a return to old habits. Again, similar to 2019, we are looking at a difference of about ten percentage points between the youngest voter cohort and the subsequent cohorts. Therefore, a pro-turnout campaign targeted at youth makes immense sense. (...) The political mobilization of this segment of the young generation is one of the imperatives for the survival of democracy in Poland." https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30268867,wybory-2023-kobiety-i-mlodziez-szansa-polskiej-demokracji.html -- POLEXIT WOULD BE A CATASTROPHE - WITOLD GADOMSKI IN GW: “We have become a prosperous country not only thanks to the influx of EU funds, but primarily thanks to the opening of the European market for Polish products and the inflow of private foreign capital, which saw Poland as an attractive place to invest. Also as a safe place, because it was protected by stable EU law. Attempts to question the benefits of Poland's membership in the Union undertaken by PiS politicians and propagandists could lead to Polexit, which would be a catastrophe for Poland. We should oppose this at all costs." https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30268953,polexit-bylby-katastrofa.html -- PKO: WE ESTIMATE THAT THE OVERALL SECTOR DEFICIT IN 2024 WILL BE 4.6% OF GDP AND APPROXIMATELY 1PP LOWER THAN THE 2023 RESULT https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/10/02/pko-szacujemy-ze-deficyt-calego-sektora-w-2024-wyniesie-46-pkb-i-bedzie-o-blisko-1pp-nizszy-niz-wynik-za-2023/ -- BIRTHDAYS: Jerzy Hausner, Jerzy Owsiak, Hanna Zych-Cisoń.

Łukasz Mężyk