state of play: 10/04/2023
The State of Play: Tusk Backs Off, the Yellow-Green Coalition Gains a Little Breathing Room at the Finish Line, Though Prospects Remain Unclear; Twardoch: Liberal-Left Intellectuals, Full of Empathy for Immigrants, Lack Empathy for Their Own Working Class
-- WIPLER: BOSAK IS OUR CANDIDATE FOR MARSHAL OF THE SEJM - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/10/04/
-- LIBERAL-LEFT INTELLECTUALS, FULL OF EMPATHY FOR IMMIGRANTS, LACK ANY EMPATHY FOR THEIR OWN WORKING CLASS - SZCZEPAN TWARDOCH IN GW: “The problem is that by not engaging in an authentic conversation with the working class about immigration – and this, let's remember, will affect the working class much more than the middle and upper classes – a conversation where their voice would genuinely be heard, where the fears and concerns of the working class would be addressed, the liberal elite causes the working class to turn to those who cynically address, amplify, and reinforce their fears and anxieties with prejudice. Evidence of this is the consistently high poll results of PiS and Konfederacja in Poland, the AfD in Germany, or Marine Le Pen in France. The more 'cheap labor' there is, the more these votes will increase. What then?”
-- IS IT BECAUSE THEY ALL REMAIN IN A LIBERAL ILLUSION WHERE SYSTEMIC WEALTH REDISTRIBUTION IS REPLACED BY A FLEETING EMOTIONAL RESPONSE, ALMS, A DONATION TO WOŚP, OR DINNER FOR THREE REFUGEES? - TWARDOCH CONTINUES: “How is it possible that none of the creators of 'Green Border' felt that false note? Is it because they all remain in a liberal illusion where systemic wealth redistribution is replaced by a fleeting emotional response, alms, a donation to WOŚP, or dinner for three refugees? Is it because the fate of the object of their charity never particularly interested them, because charity is not primarily meant to serve the recipient, but the feeling of moral perfection of the giver?”
-- DO LIBERAL ELITES HAVE ANY IDEA WHAT TO DO WITH THE FACT THAT THOSE THEY LABEL AS 'RACISTS' ALSO HAVE THE RIGHT TO VOTE? - TWARDOCH CONTINUES: “And do liberal elites have any idea what to do with the fact that those they label as 'racists' also have the right to vote? Or should they simply, like the government in Bertolt Brecht's famous poem, dissolve the nation because of their citizens' attitude and choose another? (...) A few tens of percent of society cannot simply be cancelled by throwing around the word 'racism' and considering the matter settled. Brecht's poem makes sense precisely because you cannot choose a better society. People fearing the consequences of immigration can still vote, and if the elites do not find a way to talk to them, they will be swept away at the ballot box, and ultra-nationalist formations will take power in Europe, attempting to implement the 'Festung Europa' scenario, a Europe with hermetically sealed borders.”
-- THE BOUNDARIES OF AGNIESZKA HOLLAND AND MIKOŁAJ GRYNBERG'S EMPATHY PROVE TOO NARROW - TWARDOCH'S CONCLUSION: “However, how can we discuss immigration from the perspective of Grynberg's book, where on one hand we have noble and moral people saving – rightly – their neighbors from freezing to death, and on the other hand, racists from whom a decent person shouldn't even buy honey? Such an attitude makes conversation impossible. The empathy that the characters in Grynberg's book feel and show towards immigrants illegally crossing the border should also extend to their fellow citizens who have the right to fear this immigration. However, the boundaries of Agnieszka Holland and Mikołaj Grynberg's empathy prove too narrow for this.”
https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,30253665,twardoch-w-zielonej-granicy-uchodzcy-sa-rekwizytem-a-wlasciwym.html
-- WHAT IS THE POLITICAL GOLD OF PIS? THE ANSWER IS QUITE BANAL: TO MOBILIZE THOSE WHO ARE UNEASY ABOUT CULTURAL CHANGES, PIS POLITICIANS HAVE ADDED SOCIAL TRANSFERS - PRZEMYSŁAW SADURA IN CONVERSATION WITH ARKADIUSZ GRUSZCZYŃSKI IN GW: “For many years, I've heard the question: why does Kaczyński win again? What is his political gold? The answer is quite banal: PIS politicians have added social transfers to the mobilization of people who are uneasy about cultural changes. You don't have to like Kaczyński, you don't have to support his conservative ideology tied to the traditionally understood family or social relations. You can disagree with the alliance of the state and the altar, but in the end, there's 500 or 1000 zlotys more in your wallet than under the Civic Platform's government. So, PiS has both fanatical voters and cynical ones who think about their own material interests. This appeals to those whose needs were neglected by previous governments implementing neoliberal policies.”
-- A REFORM OF VOTING AGE WOULD BE A GREAT BENEFIT TO POLISH DEMOCRACY: MEN WOULD VOTE A FEW YEARS LATER, AND WOMEN A FEW YEARS EARLIER - SADURA CONTINUES IN CONVERSATION WITH GRUSZCZYŃSKI IN GW: “For years, I've been saying that a reform of voting age would be a great benefit to Polish democracy: men would vote a few years later, and women a few years earlier. There's one reason, and it's related to the political maturity of girls. Even teenage girls are incredibly aware of political processes and the threats posed by right-wing populist governments. Some time ago, I conducted research among students in vocational schools in Warmia. The girls spoke about the world in social-democratic terms, linking their own reproductive rights with human rights, and were able to translate their daily experiences of sexism at school into systemic errors, perfectly understanding political mechanisms.
- And the boys?
- Well, they didn't connect anything. They wanted to vote for Konfederacja because they got their knowledge about the world from TikTok.”
-- IF ALL WOMEN DISENCHANTED WITH POLITICS WENT TO THE POLLS, THE OPPOSITION WOULD DEFEAT PIS - SADURA CONTINUES: “When it comes to younger women, the problem isn't who they'll vote for, but whether they'll vote at all. I checked the latest polls conducted for 'Krytyka Polityczna' by Ipsos. Women under forty who are liberal in their worldview, support the permissibility of abortion, and are simultaneously disenchanted with politics and don't want to vote, constitute 6% of the population. If all of them went to the polls, the opposition would defeat PiS.”
https://www.wysokieobcasy.pl/wysokie-obcasy/7,53668,30253665,nadzieja-w-mlodych-kobietach-o-wyniku-tych-wyborow-zdecyduja.html
-- WE ALL KNOW WELL THAT THE RESULT OF THE THIRD WAY GUARANTEES SUCCESS IN REMOVING PIS FROM POWER - WŁADYSŁAW KOSINIAK-KAMYSZ IN CONVERSATION WITH AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK AND DOMINIKA SITNICKA IN OKO.PRESS.
-- THE CHOICE TODAY IS SIMPLE: THE THIRD WAY, OR THE THIRD TERM OF PIS - SZYMON HOŁOWNIA IN THE SAME CONVERSATION WITH AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK AND DOMINIKA SITNICKA IN OKO.PRESS: Everyone already knows how this race has shaped up in the final stretch. Donald Tusk is where he is. We are also in our place. There will probably be movements of one, two, or three percentage points. But we all know that they must lead to the next parliament being able to elect a democratic government. The result of the Third Way will be crucial. The choice today is simple: the Third Way, or the third term of PiS. We have already done part of the job – we stopped Konfederacja. Just look at where Mentzen was three months ago.
-- IF WE TAKE A STRONG THIRD PLACE, WIN 15 PERCENT, THEN LADIES AND ALL THOSE WHO READ THIS CAN BE SURE THAT THERE WILL BE A DEMOCRATIC GOVERNMENT - WKK IN CONVERSATION WITH OKO.PRESS: “Now we are fighting for the best possible result for the coalition electoral committee Trzecia Droga. The future of Poland depends on it. If we take a strong third place, win 15 percent, then ladies and everyone who reads this can be sure that there will be a democratic government. If someone else takes third place, the situation could be very different.”
-- WE MARCH SEPARATELY, ATTACK TOGETHER. WE HAVE NO ENEMIES IN THE OPPOSITION - SAYS HOŁOWNIA IN AN OKO CONVERSATION: “Regarding the march, we had a meeting of leaders. We presented our view and shared our research. The tactic is clear. We march separately, we attack together. We have no enemies in the opposition. We share the work without losing our own identity. This will ensure that there are finally more voters on the democratic side this year than in 2015 or 2019.”
-- WE MUST SMELL OF VICTORY! WE MUST BELIEVE IN VICTORY! - HOŁOWNIA CONTINUES WITH SZCZĘŚNIAK AND SITNICKA: “I must make a statement here. I get furious when I see how the PiS side believes in victory, plows ahead like a steamroller, and has no doubts. And on our side, every poll swings from euphoria to hysteria. Monday IBRiS – wonderful! The opposition is winning! 24 hours later Ipsos: well, it's over, we've lost! Listen, we must smell of victory! We must believe in victory! We must be walking embodiments of the thought of victory. Like an athlete who stands at the Olympics and is about to run a sprint. They don't ponder what the technical scenario would be if they came in sixth. People! I beg you! They are driving like a tank. They look at us and see subtle political analysts, but not people with a drive to score. I'm talking about commentators, about all those pundits with titles who predict that everything will collapse soon. Either you want it, you believe in victory, and you go for it, or you tear something else to shreds. I talk to undecided voters, and I know that when they see that spark in your eye, when they see that you truly want to win, they will believe you and follow you.”
-- TAXES, THE BIGGEST AND MOST IMPORTANT ONES, WILL NOT BE CHANGED DURING THE FIRST TERM BECAUSE WE BELIEVE PEOPLE NEED CERTAINTY. WE DON'T WANT TO LOWER THEM, BUT WE ALSO DON'T INTEND TO RAISE THEM - SAYS HOŁOWNIA IN AN OKO.PRESS CONVERSATION: “As for taxes – after the dramatic devastation of the state coffers and public finances carried out by PiS, we are in a different place today. Prescriptions are written for the patient based on their current condition, not their condition three years ago. And we also say that we will discuss increasing progressivity calmly once the patient leaves the ICU, where life is currently being fought for. Therefore, taxes, the biggest and most important ones, will not be changed during the first term, because we believe people need certainty. We do not want to lower them, but we also do not intend to raise them. In the economy, we consistently focus not on the individual. Therefore, today we focus on supporting employers, entrepreneurs, and people in sole proprietorships. But at the same time, we want to expand the State Labour Inspectorate and give it greater powers for labor relations control.”
https://oko.press/musimy-pachniec-zwyciestwem-z-holownia-i-kosiniak-kamyszem
-- SUNDAY'S EVENT SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE MAIN OPPOSITION FORCE'S STRATEGY IN THE FINAL STRETCH BEFORE THE ELECTIONS - RAFAŁ KALUKIN IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “Beyond any doubt, Sunday's event showed a significant shift in the main opposition force's strategy in the final stretch before the elections. On Sunday, we had the opportunity to see a somewhat different Tusk than before. Rather reserved in his words, not as sharp in attacking opponents. He still adhered to the logic of polarization, but this time with more emphasis on 'us.' He spoke a lot about hope, solidarity, and community. Finally, about 'ending the Polish-Polish war the day after the elections,' although, of course, with the reservation that a fair reckoning of PiS's rule is necessary. For the first time in a long time, words about the unity of the opposition and its cooperation after the elections also resonated strongly.”
-- TUSK, TWO WEEKS BEFORE THE ELECTIONS, HAS CLEARLY BACKED OFF. ALTHOUGH BY DEMOBILIZING UNDECIDED VOTERS AND PARTICIPATING IN A KIND OF DIVISION OF THE THIRD WAY, HIS FORMATION COULD HAVE GAINED A FEW ADDITIONAL POINTS - KALUKIN CONTINUES IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “However, Tusk, two weeks before the elections, has clearly backed off. Although by demobilizing undecided voters and participating in a kind of division of the Third Way, his formation could have gained a few additional points. But in conditions of growing polarization, with PiS still leading the pack, he would only have a few seats to lose to gain a majority, and these could potentially be bought after the elections. Especially since Konfederacja is unlikely to return to the level of several percent, which may revise its leaders' recent ambitions to conduct sovereign policy. Losing prospects of building its own strength, it will be more inclined to engage in political bargaining.”
-- THE YELLOW-GREEN COALITION HAS GAINED A LITTLE MORE OXYGEN AT THE FINISH LINE OF THE CAMPAIGN, ALTHOUGH ITS PROSPECTS REMAIN UNCLEAR - KALUKIN CONTINUES: “Therefore, the yellow-green coalition has gained a little more oxygen at the finish line of the campaign, although its prospects remain unclear. The Third Way is the weakest link in the democratic opposition (due to the necessity of crossing the 8% threshold), and this will not change by October 15th. However, its leaders consistently emphasize their optimism, not necessarily just officially. Above all, Poland 2050's campaign is expected to pick up pace, as after months of effort, they have finally secured a bank loan. This will provide an opportunity to catch up in professionally promoting its candidates, who are for the most part political debutants with no discernible recognition.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2229662,1,tusk-najwyrazniej-cofnal-noge-choc-nie-przyszlo-mu-to-latwo-wyborcze-ukladanki-tuz-przed-meta.read
-- PIS HAS PROBABLY OVERHEATED, ITS HATE SPECTACLES ARE INCREASINGLY REPELLING RATHER THAN EXCITEING UNSURE VOTERS, AS SHOWN BY A NEW REPORT FROM THE BATORY FOUNDATION - JERZY BACZYŃSKI IN TODAY'S ISSUE OF TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “Not only opposition voters, but also an increasing number of undecided individuals are tired of PiS's rhetorical madness, their incitement against Tusk, against the 'traitors from the opposition,' against all neighbors, against the European Union. PiS has probably overheated; its hate spectacles are increasingly repelling rather than exciting undecided voters (as shown by a new report from the Batory Foundation). It is on this sentiment that Tusk is now building the main message of the opposition, speaking of a politics of love, symbolized by white and red hearts, of reconciliation in Poland, of normality, of calming agitated emotions and words. PiS plays on a sharp division of 'patriots versus traitors,' Tusk on 'love versus hate.'”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2229634,1,z-marszu-na-wybory.read?src=mt
-- PIS IS RETURNING TO ITS PLACE IN LINE, ALONGSIDE ORBÁN AND TRUMP, ABANDONED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FEAR AFTER THE OUTBREAK OF WAR - ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA IN RZ: “Perhaps there's no need to be surprised. All of PiS's political friends are, after all, anti-European and anti-Ukrainian. The ruling party is simply returning to its place in line, alongside Orbán and Trump, a place abandoned under the influence of fear after the outbreak of war in February 2022. President Andrzej Duda also stands in this line – although he tries to look the other way. His friendship with the President of Ukraine did not stand the test of time.”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art39211711-zuzanna-dabrowska-dlaczego-polska-opuscila-ukraine-to-gorzej-niz-zbrodnia-to-blad
-- WE SHOULD NOT GET CARRIED AWAY BY THE PESSIMISTIC VIEW THAT IT DOESN'T MATTER WHO IS IN POWER, BECAUSE THEY ARE ALL WORTH THE SAME - TOMASZ MARKIEWKA IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “Politicians are neither superheroes nor supervillains; rather, they are an element of a larger puzzle that includes various actors: from business lobbyists, through social movements and organizations, to ordinary voters. This 'element' can act better or worse, it can bend to the will of one actor or another. Just as there is no point in fooling ourselves into thinking that politicians will do something 'for the people' on their own, we should also not be carried away by the pessimistic view that it doesn't matter who is in power, because they are all worth the same.”
-- EVEN IF CITIZENS TRY TO SPARK ENTHUSIASM FOR POLITICIANS AND POLITICS, IT HAPPENS RATHER AGAINST THE MEDIA, WHICH DO NOT MAKE THINGS EASIER - MARKIEWKA CONTINUES: “Unfortunately, even if citizens try to muster enthusiasm for politicians and politics, it happens rather against the media, which do not make things easier. In the media, what matters most is the show, and the best show is provided by conflict. Therefore, studios mainly invite fighters specialized in sharp attacks on others. This is how people like Jacek Kurski and Stanisław Niesiołowski were promoted. It's hardly surprising that voters associate politics mainly with fruitless bickering.”
https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/polityka-to-nie-tylko-zapasy-w-blocie/
-- BIRTHDAYS: Krzysztof Czabański, Dorota Wysocka-Schnepf, Monika Wielichowska, Domicela Kopaczewska, Zdzisław Chmielewski, Marek Rząsa, Piotr Całbecki.
live
66 min
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Siemoniak: Someone Invented It – Probably Cenckiewicz – That the National Security Council Should Be a Court for Czarzasty
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"Political Personal Business": Siemoniak on the National Security Council's Agenda
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„He Doesn't Have to Consult, He Expresses His Views.” — Siemoniak on Czarzasty
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„Sometimes Even Friends Argue.” — Siemoniak Calm About Poland's Relations with the USA
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Wawer: If PiS Politicians Say Marshal Czarzasty Should Be Recalled Because the US Ambassador Dislikes Him – That's Not a Serious Approach to Governing
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„Shame on the MPs Who Elevated Him to Second Highest Office.” — Bryłka on Czarzasty
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Kierwiński: We respect alliances. We do not forget honor, pride, and sovereignty
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„A Necessity for Poland's Security.” — Czarnek Calls for Czarzasty's Resignation
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„In My Opinion, Yes.” — Glapiński on Whether March is a Good Time for an Interest Rate Cut
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