-- 14TH ANNIVERSARY OF MAREK EDELMAN'S DEATH: https://www.jhi.pl/artykuly/bierny-swiadek-staje-sie-wspolwinny-rocznica-smierci-marka-edelmana,6180 -- He once told me: You don't know what it was like to be afraid all day, but to know that a drop of happiness awaits you at night – one of the leaders of the Warsaw Ghetto Uprising, a distinguished cardiologist, and an opposition activist was recalled by the director of a documentary film about his life on Polish Radio. https://www.polskieradio.pl/8/2222/Artykul/2375881,Jolanta-Dylewska-Marek-Edelman-podkreslal-znaczenie-milosci-w-getcie *** -- WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF RYSZARD PETRU, THERE IS CURRENTLY NO POLITICIAN IN POLAND WHO PROMISES NOTHING – WITOLD GADOMSKI IN GW: "This wonderful world is promised to us by politicians before elections. Not everyone signs up for all the promises, but I haven't presented all the promises. Perhaps with the exception of Ryszard Petru, there is currently no politician in Poland who promises nothing, winking that everything is precisely calculated in Excel and we know we can afford it." -- SO WE HAVE A TYPICAL "VICIOUS CIRCLE," FROM WHICH THE ONLY WAY OUT IS TO CUT EXPENDITURE OR/AND RAISE TAXES. MEANWHILE, ALL GROUPS ARE WONDERING WHAT ELSE TO PROMISE – GADOMSKI CONTINUES IN GW: "So we have a typical 'vicious circle,' from which the only way out is to cut expenditures or/and raise taxes. Meanwhile, all parties are wondering what else to promise. We must also take into account the fact that next year, EU states will no longer be able to suspend fiscal rules. The suspension was introduced in the Union in 2020 and was a response to COVID-19, and then to the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine. The unwinding of the rules will cause the European Commission to assess the state of finances more strictly and will likely place Poland under the excessive deficit procedure. If we don't want another quarrel with the Union, we will have to accept the Commission's recommendations and present a realistic deficit reduction program. There will be no room for new gifts for voters." -- COMPLICATED PROBLEMS CANNOT BE SOLVED IF IDEAS ARE REPLACED BY PROPAGANDA – GADOMSKI'S CONCLUSION IN GW: "However, complicated solutions cannot be presented in a single social media post or a TikTok video. Politicians therefore pretend to know simple solutions – we'll raise the tax-free allowance here, we'll subsidize there, we'll create a new fund somewhere. This is all nonsense. Complicated problems cannot be solved if ideas are replaced by propaganda." https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30247848,obietnice-wyborcze-nowy-wspanialy-nierealny-swiat.html -- 49.4% BELIEVE THE OPPOSITION "SHOULD" GOVERN, AND 50.6% – THAT IT "SHOULD NOT" – IBRIS POLL FOR RZ: “The answers divided the surveyed group in half. 49.4% believe the opposition 'should' govern, and 50.6% – that it 'should not.' Even the proportion of more and less determined individuals in both groups is similar. 34.3% believe that the 'opposition definitely should' hold power, while 34% hold the opposite view.” https://www.rp.pl/wybory/art39198671-sondaz-kto-powinien-rzadzic-polska-podzielona-na-pol -- THE OPPOSITION ENTERS WITH GOOD ENERGY AND SYNERGY BETWEEN PARTIES: EACH IS FOR SOMEONE – MICHAŁ DANIELEWSKI IN OKO.PRESS: “The opposition enters the last 13 days of the campaign with good energy and synergy between parties: each is for someone. The March of a Million Hearts may not be a great breakthrough, but it is a clear counterpoint to the PiS hysteria presented in Katowice. And it wasn't that certain before Sunday, because the opposition often likes to strike hysterical tones too. This time, it didn't happen. The message from the March of a Million Hearts was one: we will win, we will form a common government, in two weeks we will wake up in a different Poland. Darkness radiated from the PiS convention, a terrible, dark abyss, generated by the image of Donald Tusk, to whom the convention of Jarosław Kaczyński's party was almost entirely dedicated.” -- THIS BATTLE IS UNLIKELY TO BRING A MAJOR BREAKTHROUGH IN THE ELECTION WAR. THE FIGHT FOR VICTORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE LAST HOURS OF THE CAMPAIGN: WHOEVER DOZES OFF AND MAKES MORE MISTAKES WILL LOSE – DANIELEWSKI CONTINUES IN OKO.PRESS: “The ruling camp lost this Sunday and, by their own doing, pushed themselves onto the defensive with their own convention. While the opposition speaks offensively: 'We are going for victory,' PiS responds with the defense of a besieged fortress and declares: 'We cannot lose.' But without illusions or wishful thinking – this battle is unlikely to bring a major breakthrough in the election war. The fight for victory will continue until the last hours of the campaign: whoever dozes off and makes more mistakes will lose. The outcome is open.” https://oko.press/marsz-miliona-serc-kontra-plenum-spoldzielni-zenum -- KO WINS THE CORRESPONDENCE DUEL WITH PIS. THE QUESTION IS HOW MANY UNDECIDED VOTERS TUSK CONVINCED – ARTUR BARTKIEWICZ IN RZ: “Can you make up for eight years of lost time in two weeks before the election? We will know the answer on October 15th. On Sunday, Tusk certainly won against PiS on imagery and 'soundbites' in the correspondence duel taking place between Warsaw and Katowice. The question is how many undecided voters he convinced – because in a polarized world of two hostile camps, with solidified poll numbers and glass ceilings of support, it is the undecided and non-voters who are the last group that can still change something in the electoral landscape.” https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art39196421-artur-bartkiewicz-ko-wygrywa-korespondencyjny-pojedynek-z-pis-donald-tusk-daje-opozycji-nadzieje -- THAT WAS PROBABLY THE BEST SPEECH AT THE MARCH – KATARZYNA PRZYBORSKA IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “It seems that the policy of patience pursued by Lewica towards the leader of KO has paid off. They appeared on stage and used their five minutes to say what they want. That was probably the best speech at the March of a Million Hearts.” -- A WOMAN AS AN EXAMPLE, A WOMAN NEEDED TO TELL A STORY THAT WAS CONSISTENTLY TOLD BY MEN THEMSELVES – PRZYBORSKA CONTINUES IN KRYTYKA: “Then, finally, a woman appeared on stage. But unfortunately, as a symbolic woman, an exemplary woman, a woman needed to tell a story that had been consistently told by men themselves. Donald Tusk first mispronounced her name and completely omitted her surname. He invited her because she is the youngest candidate on the KO list, she is 22 years old, because she comes from Gliwice and is a Christian.” -- ON OCTOBER 1ST, POLAND STOOD DETERMINED ON THE STREETS OF WARSAW – PRZYBORSKA CONTINUES IN KRYTYKA: “In the march on June 4th, Poland walked the streets of Warsaw astonished, and then dazzled – that there were so many of us. On October 1st, Poland stood determined on the streets of Warsaw. There were many smiles, as Donald Tusk said – he smiled throughout the three hours of the march. However, it was clear that not only smiles were present, but a serious, focused determination not to give Poland away.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/marsz-miliona-serc-ile-osob-uczestnikow-tusk-czarzasty/ -- VOTER – YOU HAVE SEEN YOUR CHOICE – PAWEŁ WROŃSKI IN GW: “On October 1st, the Polish voter was presented with a choice: whether to listen to Jarosław Kaczyński's vision and Mateusz Morawiecki's blunt propaganda for the next four years, or to take a breath of fresh air and say 'enough!' -- CZARZASTY GAVE ONE OF THE BEST SPEECHES OF HIS CAREER, AND WHETHER THE THIRD WAY TACTIC WAS RIGHT, WE WILL FIND OUT AT THE BALLOT BOX – WROŃSKI CONTINUES: “The leaders of Lewica, led by Włodzimierz Czarzasty, who delivered one of the best speeches of his career, were at the march. Tusk greeted Szymon Hołownia and Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, who, as he emphasized, are doing a great job. The leaders of the Third Way chose the tactic of a thousand meetings after the experience of the June 4th March, when their presence, or rather indecision, led to a drop in their ratings. Whether this was the right tactic, we will find out at the ballot box.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,30251761,marsz-miliona-serc-kontra-konwencja-w-katowicach-wyborco.html -- THE MARCH WAS A HUGE SUCCESS FOR THE CIVIC COALITION. IT IS ALSO A THREAT TO THE ENTIRE OPPOSITION, AS IT MAY PUSH THE THIRD WAY BELOW THE ELECTORAL THRESHOLD – MAREK KĘSKRAWIEC IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “The spirit of the absent leaders of the Third Way loomed over the entire march, which was a huge success for the Coalition (to some extent, Michał Kołodziejczak was meant to replace them), and it was also a spirit of unease. Paradoxically, the expected few percentage point increase in the polls for KO after the march may result not only from convincing a part of the undecided electorate but also come at the expense of Hołownia and Kosiniak-Kamysz if, in the final stretch, some of their voters decide to shift their votes to the strongest opposition party. This, in turn, could push the alliance of Polski 2050 and PSL below the 8 percent threshold, leading to a disaster for the entire opposition camp.” https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/marsz-miliona-serc-setki-tysiecy-ludzi-na-ulicach-warszawy-184826 -- A DUEL OF GIANTS – A VISUAL WIN FOR THE CIVIC COALITION. PIS SHOWED INTERNAL DISCIPLINE – PIOTR ŚMIŁOWICZ IN GAZETA.PL: “A visual win for PO, a draw with a slight edge to Civic Coalition – these conclusions can be drawn from observing Sunday's duel between the two main rivals in the electoral race, based on the opinions appearing online.” https://jedennewsdziennie.pl/#id=73 -- I AM NOT SURE ABOUT THE SECOND MATTER – WHETHER THE MARCH WILL SUCCEED IN BROADENING THE OPPOSITION'S INFLUENCE – TOMASZ SAWCZUK IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “I am not sure about the second matter – whether the march will succeed in broadening the opposition's influence. The march on October 1st was a political event of exceptional scale – hence, one could expect a speech of historical significance from Donald Tusk, defining the election campaign, containing clear appeals to specific social groups, powerful arguments addressed to reason, heart, and wallet; a performance and seduction. (...) This time his concluding speech was not festive; it resembled many other speeches he had given in recent weeks in many Polish cities, and was even somewhat more restrained or modest than some of them – for instance, at a meeting in Piła, Tusk was recently in Olympic form.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2023/10/01/sawczuk-marsz-miliona-serc-daje-nadzieje-opozycji/ -- THE OPPOSITION DID NOT TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE LAST CERTAIN CHANCE TO ACHIEVE A CLEAR BREAKTHROUGH – MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “Contrary to pre-event rumors, the opposition did not decide on any bolder move. There was no strong signal of unity, no replacement of Tusk with Trzaskowski as prime minister candidate. In terms of program, words of love and the desire to 'end the Polish-Polish war' strongly contrasted with the daily announced plans of revenge, and the declarations of concern for respect for the Polish uniform were bizarre. Likely with Agnieszka Holland and Janina Ochojska at his sides, and Władysław Frasyniuk behind him. Elżbieta Witek rightly recalled the shameful attacks on the defenders of Poland's borders. The opposition's main problem, namely a lack of credibility and a lack of program, was not overcome. This opportunity was not even seized, assuming that the old set of slogans would suffice, that anti-PiS sentiment as an ideology is powerful and one needs to 'hit harder,' as Tusk once put it. A questionable thesis.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/664840-w-ten-weekend-prawie-nic-nie-poszlo-po-mysli-tuska -- THE PIS CONVENTION WAS MORE BRUTAL THAN EVER. EVERYONE HAD ONE ENEMY – JACEK GĄDEK IN GAZETA.PL: “Everything the PiS leaders said could have been heard before – with the caveat that in Katowice, the rhetorical thrusts aimed at Tusk were more brutal and fiercer. And this may not be the end – after all, there are still less than two weeks of campaigning left.” https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,30252229,konwencja-pis-brutalna-jak-jeszcze-nigdy-wszyscy-mieli-jednego.html -- AT ITS PROGRAMMATIC CONVENTION, PIS SOLIDIFIED ITS POLITICAL BASE – MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI ON JEDYNKA RZ: “The IBRiS poll indicates that Poles are divided in half when asked whether PiS or the opposition should continue to govern after the elections. And both scenarios are still possible. However, opposition voters' belief that a coalition of KO, Lewica, and Trzecia Droga is possible after the elections is strong among the voters of these parties. And the images from Sunday's march may be useful for increasing this belief. PiS, on the other hand, merely solidified its political base at its programmatic convention.” https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art39198691-michal-szuldrzynski-opozycja-mowi-o-przyszlosci-pis-straszy-powrotem-tuska-co-zmienila-wyborcza-superniedziela -- NOW EVERYONE WILL BE GAZING AT THE POLL RESULTS THAT APPEAR AFTER THE MARCH OF A MILLION HEARTS. THEY WILL SET THE TONE FOR THE END OF THE CAMPAIGN – MARIUSZ JANICKI ON THE TYGODNIK POLITYKA PORTAL: “There was also a battle of polls. From Nowogrodzka [PiS headquarters], a spin went out to the so-called 'called' journalists that PiS has 39-40% in internal polls and is almost certain of a third term, especially since Trzecia Droga is falling below the threshold in the same surveys. This was an obvious demobilization operation targeting the opposition and its electorate before the October 1st march, but the aforementioned 'called' journalists eagerly and proudly rushed to disseminate it. Since this message began to gain wide reach, Tusk could not leave such a communication unanswered, hence he revealed – for the first time so officially – his own internal polls, i.e., 34.9% for PiS and 32.8% for Koalicja. In official surveys, commissioned by polling agencies, there are no major changes; the difference between PiS and KO is about 4-5 percentage points, with TD above the threshold. Now everyone will be gazing at the poll results that appear after the March of a Million Hearts. They will set the tone for the end of the campaign.” -- THERE IS ALREADY GREAT NERVOUSNESS AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE RULING CAMP, MANIFESTED IN INCREASING AGGRESSION – MARIUSZ JANICKI CONTINUES: “The rules of political marketing state that it takes about two weeks for a political event to resonate and reach a mass audience. There is already great nervousness and uncertainty in the ruling camp, which is manifesting in increasing aggression. We had a clash of prime ministers, Morawiecki and Tusk, and it may continue like this until the end of the campaign.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2229484,1,weekend-kampanii-marsz-konwencja-cuda-z-benzyna--i-czekanie-na-sondaze.read -- "THE INTERNAL POLL" DONALD TUSK SPOKE OF WOULD GIVE THE PRO-DEMOCRATIC OPPOSITION ONLY (AND AS MUCH AS) A PERFECT DRAW WITH PIS – PIOTR PACEWICZ IN OKO.PRESS: “The opposition's victory is ensured by the first two variants with a clear advantage for Trzecia Droga and a weaker Konfederacja (5 and 6%). The variant of Trzecia Droga at 9% and Konfederacja at 7% results in a parliamentary (statistical) draw (229 to 231 seats). Unfortunately, the variant of a draw between Konfederacja and Trzecia Droga (8% each) translates into a clear advantage for the right-wing camp (237 to 222 seats). If some pro-democratic miracle worker could adjust the sliders of support for the five parties, but considering the reality of Poles' attitudes, they would: - reduce PiS's result (every percentage point below 38% is worth democratic gold); - weaken Konfederacja's support to a maximum of 7%; - improve KO's result, but in such a way as not to push Trzecia Droga below the threshold of 8%, or even better, 9%; - strengthen Lewica's result by 1-2 percentage points, but not at the expense of KO…” https://oko.press/sondaz-tuska-dawalby-opozycji-tylko-remis-z-prawica-jak-wygrac-wybory -- PKO ANALYSTS: ALTHOUGH REVIVAL IS ON THE HORIZON, THE PATH TO IT IS MORE WINDING THAN EXPECTED JUST A FEW MONTHS AGO: https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/09/29/analitycy-pko-wprawdzie-ozywienie-jest-na-horyzoncie-ale-droga-do-niego-jest-bardziej-kreta-niz-oczekiwano-jeszcze-kilka-miesiecy-temu/ -- 26 YEARS AGO, TVN TELEVISION STARTED BROADCASTING. -- BIRTHDAYS: Marcin Horała, Ludwik Rakowski.