state of play: 09/30/2023

STATE OF PLAY: Pietryga: Opposition Too Influenced by Celebrity and Artistic Elites, Karnowski: Germany Joins Proponents of Forced Relocation. Pressure is Growing, Tusk Will Yield, PKO Analysts: Inflation is Currently the Lowest Since Late 2021, and the Wa

Łukasz Mężyk

-- PKO ANALYSTS: INFLATION IS CURRENTLY THE LOWEST SINCE LATE 2021, AND THE WAR PRICE SHOCK IS SLOWLY SUBSIDING:https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/09/29/analitycy-pko-inflacja-jest-obecnie-najnizsza-od-konca-2021-a-wojenny-szok-cenowy-powoli-przemija-2/ -- MIGRANT CRISIS DESTROYS NEW YORK. MAYOR ADAMS VS. JOE BIDEN - ALEKSANDRA SŁABISZ IN RZ: “Migrants are camped out on New York streets, spending on their upkeep has spiraled out of control, and the Democratic mayor has gone to war with Joe Biden, demanding federal authorities solve the migration crisis. And he has become the black sheep of his own party. Increasingly, groups of concerned New Yorkers are appearing in front of shelters, worried about the uncontrolled influx of foreigners who, moreover, are receiving social assistance paid for by taxpayers. For fear of their safety, they don't want accommodation centers for hundreds of strangers to be established in their neighborhoods. 'This is a quiet neighborhood. We don't know who these people are' – these are the arguments heard frequently.” https://www.rp.pl/plus-minus/art39178781-kryzys-migracyjny-niszczy-nowy-jork-burmistrz-adams-kontra-joe-biden -- IF TUSK WINS, POLAND WILL BE FLOODED WITH MIGRANTS. DO YOU LIKE THE PIS GOVERNMENT, POLE, OR NOT – ONLY THIS CAMP CAN STOP THE CATASTROPHE - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “They gave some cents for Ukrainian war refugees. Serious sums are to be allocated for arrivals from Africa. Racism? A cynical plan? It is being said more and more loudly in Brussels that this is precisely the agenda to be put in place. Germany is just joining the proponents of forced relocation. Pressure is growing. Only a government fiercely defending national interests, with a strong mandate obtained both in elections and in a referendum, will be able to halt this course of events. If Tusk wins, within a year Poland will be flooded with migrants from Africa and Asia. The barrier on the eastern border will be dismantled, and crowds will also be sent from the west. They will disband the border guard. They will follow the path of the much-praised cinematic work of Agnieszka Holland and her statements. These are millions of people. They will quickly overshadow the Ukrainian numbers. Does anyone think that if Berlin and Brussels gain the power to decide how many people we should take in and settle in our territory, they will stop at 10,000? 100,000? A million?” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/664619-jesli-tusk-wygra-polska-zostanie-zalana-migrantami -- TUSK DID NOT SAY – AND WILL NOT SAY – "NO" TO RELOCATION - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “Will Poles fall for another of Tusk’s disguises? As soon as he wins, he will return to the only policy he is capable of pursuing: the policy of implementing others' decisions. Including on the issue of immigration. Perhaps primarily on this issue. Because countries broken by mass immigration are no longer able to break free from the loop of degradation and decline. There is no turning back from this path.” https://wpolityce.pl/spoleczenstwo/664603-tusk-nie-powiedzial-i-nie-powie-nie-dla-relokacji -- THE OPPOSITION MADE A MISTAKE BY NOT MAINTAINING EVEN A FORCED DISTANCE FROM AGNIESZKA HOLLAND'S FILM. IN A COUNTRY WHERE NEARLY 70% OF VOTERS POSITIVELY ASSESS THE BORDER GUARD, THIS IS A STRATEGIC OWN GOAL - TOMASZ PIETRYGA IN RZ: “Could it have been done differently? Yes, by maintaining at least a strategic distance from the film. Then Civic Platform could have blunted PiS’s political weapon, which attempts to position the opposition as ignoring Poles' security. And yet, even before Holland’s work hit the screens, there was talk of it slandering the Border Guard. This was the second alarm bell. For decades, there has been very strong respect for uniforms in Poland. In last year’s surveys, nearly 70% of Poles expressed a positive opinion of the Border Guard, with only the army surpassing it in trust. Allowing themselves to be made into opponents of this formation, and right before the elections, is a strategic own goal.” -- OPPOSITION TOO INFLUENCED BY CELEBRITY AND ARTISTIC ELITES - PIETRYGA FURTHER IN RZ: “It seems, however, that the opposition is under too much influence from celebrity and artistic elites, who sincerely want to help Donald Tusk remove PiS from power. It's just that an artistic reading of the world sometimes has little to do with reality. Millions go to the polls, and their vote weighs as much as the vote of a handful of enlightened artistic elites. Donald Tusk could not resist their charm, and he politically lost the battle for 'Green Border' due to the celebrity fountain of wisdom.” https://www.rp.pl/opinie-prawne/art39191151-tomasz-pietryga-zgubna-dla-donalda-tuska-celebrycka-krynica-madrosci -- ZELENSKY AND UKRAINIAN AUTHORITIES, BY STIRRING UP CONFLICT WITH WARSAW, ARE MORE LIKELY TO HELP PIS IN THE CAMPAIGN - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “the Ukrainian authorities, by stirring up conflict, are more likely to help PiS in the campaign and increase its chances of winning. And if someone repeats theories about a conspiracy between France, Germany, and Ukraine, they must assume that all these politicians are not very smart, because their actions produce the opposite effect of what is allegedly intended. No one doubts that thanks to the conflict with Ukraine, Jarosław Kaczyński has drawn some voters away from Sławomir Mentzen and Krzysztof Bosak.” -- WOULDN'T THE OPPOSITION BE MORE EFFECTIVE IF IT FOCUSED ON ADVERTISING ITS OWN DEMANDS? - WIELOWIEYSKA FURTHER: “The PiS strategy – to frighten with everything they can and stir up animosity towards all neighbors – may increase support for this party. But wouldn't the opposition be more effective if it focused on advertising its own demands? Because scandals and criticism of PiS no longer work on less motivated voters. However, a program that offers them something could convince them – yes, people look at their own interests – a program through which they will gain something.” https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,30238669,zelenski-i-wladze-ukrainy-nakrecajac-konflikt-z-warszawa-raczej.html -- CURRENTLY, OUR GOVERNMENT IS NOT ONLY ARGUING WITH THE BALTIC SEA - PAWEŁ WROŃSKI IN GW: “The result of eight years of Law and Justice rule is the lack of significant funds from the European Union and a crisis in relations with Brussels, a cold war with Germany, an obvious conflict with Russia, strained relations with the Czech Republic, and a crisis in relations with Ukraine. Currently, our government is not only arguing with the Baltic Sea.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,30244158,kampania-i-paranoja-czyli-przepis-na-dyplomatyczna-katastrofe.html -- BEATA SZYDŁO: AFTER THE ELECTIONS, JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI SHOULD BE PRIME MINISTER - AS SHE SAID ON RMF FM: "Mateusz Morawiecki is a very good prime minister, but if I had to choose between Mr. Jarosław Kaczyński and Mateusz Morawiecki, or another candidate, I certainly believe that Jarosław Kaczyński is the most outstanding politician (...) thanks to whom Poland is safe." https://www.rmf24.pl/tylko-w-rmf24/rozmowa/news-beata-szydlo-premierem-po-wyborach-powinien-byc-jaroslaw-kac,nId,7057813 -- PIS IS TODAY PORTRAYED AS A GREAT DISTRIBUTOR OF BENEFITS FOR ITS PEOPLE. AND PROBABLY RIGHTLY SO. BUT WHAT ABOUT THE OPPOSITION REWARDING ITS OWN PEOPLE, THEN AND NOW? - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN INTERIA: “Is there any systemic solution to this? None of the parties presents one. They don't present one because parties know that their people must be rewarded. At the same time, accusations are thrown around during campaigns. In the poetics that Ludwik Dorn described back in the days of the AWS vs. SLD wars: Two guys stand opposite each other and shout: 'You are the bigger scoundrel.' 'No, you are the bigger scoundrel.' These shouts are only moderately effective in the face of extreme polarization. Each side dwells on the sins of 'the others' while forgiving its own. Perhaps the undecided will at least be concerned by this? But by what? By rewarding PiS people? Or by distributing Platform officials? I would like to point out that both sides sin.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-fuchy-dla-swoich-czy-tylko-pis-tym-grzeszy,nId,7057360 -- WHILE DISTRIBUTING LEAFLETS IN POZNAŃ, RÓŻA THUN MET FORMER PRIME MINISTER HANNA SUCHOCKA: https://x.com/rozathun/status/1707798750050033799?s=20 -- ON SUNDAY, IT WILL BE 14 YEARS SINCE RZECZPOSPOLITA REVEALED THE GAMBLING SCANDAL. https://www.rp.pl/kraj/art7507851-wplywowi-politycy-i-afera-hazardowa -- ON SUNDAY, IT WILL ALSO BE 9 YEARS SINCE EWAS KOPACZ'S EXPOSE. -- BIRTHDAYS: Andrzej Zybertowicz, Jacek Pałasiński, Jakub Porada, Ireneusz Raś. SUNDAY: Karol Lutkowski, Jerzy Meysztowicz, Krystyna Danilecka-Wojewódzka, Karolina Wigura.

Łukasz Mężyk