-- BREJZA: OVER A MILLION TONS OF COAL FROM RUSSIAN PORTS WERE SUPPOSED TO ARRIVE IN POLAND - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/09/27/ -- IPSOS RESULTS FOR OKO.PRESS: PiS – 36 percent (+1 percentage point compared to September 12) Civic Coalition – 29 percent (+3) The Left – 10 percent (+2) Third Way – 8 percent (+2) Confederation – 7 percent (-1) Non-Party Local Government Officials – 1 (no change) Other – 0 (-1) Undecided – 9 percent (-5) 68 percent of respondents declare participation in the elections (60 percent definitely, 8 percent rather), which is the same result as two weeks ago. -- HOPE FOR THE OPPOSITION IN IPSOS POLL. KO, THE LEFT, AND THE THIRD WAY ARE GROWING - COMMENTARY BY PIOTR PACEWICZ AND MICHAŁ DANIELEWSKI IN OKO.PRESS: “A change in voter sentiment can be indicated by the fact that in the previous Ipsos poll ending on September 12, PiS (35 percent) and Confederation (8 percent) together had 43 percent support, while three pro-democratic parties garnered only 40 percent (KO – 26 percent, The Left – 8 percent, and Third Way – 6 percent).” https://oko.press/nadzieja-dla-opozycji-w-sondazu-ipsos -- HOWEVER, OKO.PRESS DESCRIBED A SIMILAR IPSOS SURVEY IN 2019: “PiS (41 percent) is strong, but the opposition together is stronger (46 percent). Support for the opposition in the variant of three forces (46 percent) is slightly higher than in the 2019 European Parliament elections, where KE (38.47 percent) together with Wiosna (6.06 percent) collected 44.53 percent. Especially since the poll results are calculated among all voters, including the undecided. The opposition's result among decided voters reaches 50 percent. Similarly, the support for PiS calculated this way would be 45 percent, exactly what PiS had in the European elections (45.38 percent).” https://oko.press/pis-41-proc-mocny-ale-opozycja-razem-mocniejsza-46-proc -- WHO WILL STEAL VOTERS FROM WHOM: WILL THE THIRD WAY STEAL FROM CONFEDERATION, OR VICE VERSA - PIOTR PACEWICZ IN OKO.PRESS: “This is one of the more interesting findings – roughly the same percentage of Confederation voters see themselves in the Third Way as Third Way voters see themselves in Confederation. This could be a crucial battle in the final stretch of the campaign. Any gains for the Third Way would strengthen its position above the electoral threshold and simultaneously weaken Confederation, which would cease to play the role of a kingmaker for PiS. Conversely, a flow of Third Way electorate to Confederation could sink Hołownia and Kosiniak-Kamysz's party, thereby opening the way for PiS to even secure a parliamentary majority (similar to the result of the United Left in 2015 – 7.6 percent gave PiS a majority).” https://oko.press/sondaz-ipsos-trzecia-droga-wyssie-konfederatow -- IF UNDECIDED VOTERS DECIDED THE ELECTION OUTCOME, THE CIVIC COALITION WOULD WIN. BECAUSE IF THEY DECIDE TO VOTE, THEY ARE MORE LIKELY TO SUPPORT THE OPPOSITION THAN THE GOVERNMENT - AGNIESZKA KUBLIK IN GW: "However, among the rest, the distribution of preferences was somewhat similar to what we observe among respondents with defined preferences, though with some significant differences," reads the CBOS report. "The leaders remained the same here, although it's worth noting that – unlike in the case of decided voters – the percentage of potential Civic Coalition voters (24 percent) significantly outweighs the percentage of potential ruling coalition voters (16 percent)." (...) And in July, KO was stronger than PiS in this group, but now this advantage is more pronounced. The Third Way also has a good result in this group, 15 percent, which is almost as much as PiS. This is a jump compared to July, when it had a result more than twice as bad as PiS.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,30233564,cbos-przeswietla-niezdecydowanych.html -- THE ELECTION IS A CLASH BETWEEN POLAND AND PiS. I HAVE INVITED LEADERS OF ALL DEMOCRATIC PARTIES, AND THE LEFT HAS ACCEPTED THE INVITATION - DONALD TUSK IN AN INTERVIEW WITH JERZY BACZYŃSKI AND MALWINA DZIEDZIC IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “New environments are joining. The national community is being rebuilt. An individual facing organized evil may feel crushed and powerless. A mafia can intimidate and destroy anyone who is alone, but if good people gather together, organize, then the evil ones will tremble. That's what the first Solidarity movement achieved. People need to feel and show their strength. The greatest allies of authoritarian and corrupt power are social apathy, disbelief in the possibility of change. The helplessness and loneliness of people, each individually. On October 1st, everyone must see that all of Poland is coming together, that the election is a clash between Poland and PiS. I have invited the leaders of all democratic parties, and the Left has accepted the invitation.” -- REVIEWING CONTRACTS, MAINLY IN THE DEFENSE AND ENERGY INDUSTRIES, AS WELL AS THOSE RELATED TO CPK AND OTHER FAILED PROJECTS, IS A TASK FOR THE FIRST 100 DAYS - TUSK FURTHER STATES IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “Still high inflation, declining production, declining investment, rising debt are the consequences of their irresponsible policy, which inevitably complicates economic restart after the elections. Reviewing contracts, mainly in the defense and energy industries, as well as those related to CPK and other failed projects, is a task for the first 100 days.” -- WITH DETERMINATION, I AM BUILDING A DEMOCRATIC ARMY READY FOR ANY SCENARIO - TUSK CONTINUES: “Besides, perhaps I was naive, because what can you expect from a person who allows for the criminal practice of mass visa sales in Asia and Africa, while simultaneously escalating the spiral of hatred towards foreigners. This is just one example of extremely irresponsible behavior; I expect further eruptions of aggression and ideas dangerous to us all. That is why with such determination I am building a democratic army ready for any scenario.” -- TOUGH ENFORCEMENT OF LAWS AND PROCEDURES AT THE BORDER IS THE DUTY OF ANY GOVERNMENT, WHICH NATURALLY CANNOT MEAN CONSENT TO INHUMANE TREATMENT - TUSK STATES: “Tough enforcement of laws and procedures at the border is the duty of any government, which naturally cannot mean consent to inhumane treatment of anyone. Only a functioning state and uncorrupted institutions will be able to meet this challenge.” -- PRESIDENT DUDA'S ATTITUDE WILL CHANGE NOT BECAUSE HE WILL SUDDENLY BECOME A STATESMAN WHO UNDERSTANDS HIS COUNTRY'S INTERESTS WELL, BUT OUT OF OPPORTUNISM - TUSK FURTHER STATES IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “After PiS is removed from power, President Duda's attitude will change not because he will suddenly become a statesman who understands his country's interests well, but out of opportunism. The repeal of many PiS decisions concerning the rule of law and judicial independence will not require legislation.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2228836,1,donald-tusk-dla-polityki-to-bedzie-starcie-polska-kontra-pis-zwyciezymy-rozliczymy-naprawimy.read -- COULD I PRAISE ANYTHING FROM THE PiS GOVERNMENT'S TIME? DIGITALIZATION PROGRESS IS AMONG THE POSITIVE AREAS. HOWEVER, IF A DIFFERENT GOVERNMENT WERE IN POWER, THEY WOULD DO EXACTLY THE SAME OR MORE - LESZEK BALCEROWICZ IN AN INTERVIEW WITH GRZEGORZ WYSOCKI ON GAZETA.PL: “Could I praise anything from the PiS government's time? Digitalization progress is among the positive areas. However, if a different government were in power, they would do exactly the same or more. We can find some areas where there has been improvement, but in those places, things would have improved even more under better governance. But I repeat – the most important thing is the systemic regression. We emerged from a dictatorship and from the dominance of state ownership, which was the foundation of that dictatorship, and PiS is the first party that is taking us backward systemically. No previous party, including the so-called post-communists, i.e., the SLD, has taken us backward. They continued the change initiated in 1989 – perhaps slower, but still. PiS, on the other hand, is the worst, most socialist, and anti-freedom party we have had since 1989.” -- THIS MONEY CAN BE USED BETTER. HOW? FOR EXAMPLE, SOME OF THIS MONEY CAN BE USED TO SUBSIDIZE FAMILY BENEFITS FOR LARGE FAMILIES, FOR POORER FAMILIES - BALCEROWICZ TELLS WYSOCKI: “And do I like 500 plus, or am I critical of this program? I cannot answer a question posed in this way. I am not afraid to answer about proposals I disagree with, but first, one must state the criteria for evaluation. Stupid evaluations include pointing to some positive effects of an initiative and accepting it based on that. Without considering the costs, and also without considering whether we cannot use the same money better. So, from this point of view, 500 plus is a stupid initiative. Because this money can be used better. How? For example, some of this money can be used to subsidize family benefits for large families, for poorer families. And they did it based on thoughtless populism, to buy votes. That is, – I will repeat – the criteria for evaluation are the most important, sir. If the criteria for evaluation are stupid, then the evaluations are stupid, period.” -- THE FIRST THING TO DO IS TO QUICKLY HOLD PiS ACCOUNTABLE. IF THE CRIMINAL CODE NEEDS TO BE USED - DO IT - BALCEROWICZ FURTHER STATES ON GAZETA.PL: “The first thing to do is to quickly hold PiS accountable. If the criminal code needs to be used – do it. The main goal is to prevent such moral and systemic indecencies from going unpunished any longer.” -- IN MY OPINION, RACING PIŚ ON SOCIAL PROMISES IS A GREATER ELECTORAL RISK THAN PRESENTING REAL SCENARIOS FOR POLAND IN AN ACCESSIBLE WAY - LESZEK BALCEROWICZ TELLS WYSOCKI FURTHER: “It's not the case that the majority of Polish society shares PiS's views. And the vast majority of opposition voters do not agree with what PiS is doing. So, in my opinion, racing PiS on social promises is a greater electoral risk than presenting real scenarios for Poland in an accessible way. Yes, I am surprised if 800+ appears in response to 500+, and this at a time when the budget deficit and debt servicing costs are simultaneously rising. And another question: do those who are currently engaged in such social propaganda imagine what they will say to people after winning the elections? It is not a universal truth that populists can only be defeated by populist tactics. And it is certainly not true for the situation in Poland, where the majority of citizens do not support PiS. Moreover, we have examples in modern history of anti-populist politicians who achieved great success. Mrs. Thatcher in Great Britain, Reagan in the United States, Aznar in Spain.” -- I WILL VOTE FOR A CHOSEN OPPOSITION PARTY. WHICH ONE – I WILL SAY PUBLICLY LATER, I AM GUIDED BY THE DESIRE TO PREVENT THE WORST SCENARIO, NAMELY ONE WHERE A SMALLER OPPOSITION PARTY DOES NOT ENTER PARLIAMENT - BALCEROWICZ STATES: “I will vote for a chosen opposition party. Which one – I will say publicly later. For now, I can tell you that I will be guided by two criteria. First, an assessment of the quality of the program. Second, the desire to prevent the worst scenario, namely one where a smaller opposition party does not enter parliament. Well, it is quite clear from this who I will cast my vote for [laughter]. But I won't dot the i's here.” -- IF YOU ASK ME ABOUT CONFEDERATION, IT IS A VERY HETEROGENEOUS ENTITY, SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO DECLARE MY POSITION - BALCEROWICZ FURTHER STATES TO WYSOCKI: “If you ask me about Confederation, it is a very heterogeneous entity, so it is difficult to declare my position. The fact that my words from an interview with Radio Zet, stating that 'Confederation's economic program is the most rational,' spread so widely, shows – I state this with pleasure – that I am still listened to and read [laughter]. The interpretation that I support Confederation was, to put it mildly, exaggerated, and to put it bluntly: false. And I oppose this. However, I believe it would be good for Confederation, after the elections, to take a shape where it is not an ally of PiS. If, on the other hand, you ask me about Confederation's economic program, then I apologize, but I will not comment on it because Confederation is a very heterogeneous group, and quoting statements of some of its members under the banner of Confederation is unreliable.” https://weekend.gazeta.pl/weekend/7,189996,30181941,leszek-balcerowicz-ja-jako-prezydent-lub-premier-polski-nie.html -- PiS IS FIGHTING FOR VOTERS WHO IN THE PAST (2015, 2019) ALREADY VOTED FOR PiS, RATHER THAN THOSE WHO WOULD DO SO FOR THE FIRST TIME - KAMILA BARANOWSKA ON INTERIA ABOUT THE BEHIND-THE-SCENES OF THE PiS CAMPAIGN: “This does not change the fact that the topics that PiS is highlighting in the campaign today are those to which voter reactions on the ground are most alive. This shows that the campaign is tailored to the social emotions within the PiS electorate. And voter mobilization is today, as PiS campaign strategists and politicians repeat like a mantra, the key to victory. The ruling party is not counting on gaining new voters today, those more centrist or moderate. The fight is rather for the mobilization of those who have already voted for PiS in the past (2015, 2019) than for those who would do so for the first time. Mobilization is achieved through emotions.” -- THE VISA AFFAIR INTERRUPTED A FAVORABLE RHYTHM - PiS CAMPAIGN STAFF ADMIT TO BARANOWSKA: “In unofficial conversations, campaign staff admit that the visa affair, contrary to official assurances, 'cost them a bit.' - Instead of pursuing our plan, we had to put out fires, react, and respond to attacks. This matter also interrupted the favorable rhythm we had fallen into, presenting our daily spots, which we were doing very well, so now we have to catch up – admits our interlocutor, although he says that 'the worst is behind us.' -- WILL THE MARCH SWEEP AWAY THE SMALLER PARTIES? - FURTHER IN BARANOWSKA'S ARTICLE: “In the PiS campaign headquarters, there is also a belief that the date of October 1st will be an important campaign point, a clash of two camps that will 'sweep away smaller parties and leave two major players on the stage.' 'Sweep away,' meaning to lower the ratings of the Third Way, Confederation, and The Left. On October 1st, Donald Tusk's 'march of a million hearts' will take place in Warsaw. In response, PiS is organizing a convention at the Spodek arena in Katowice. PiS politicians have mixed feelings about Tusk's march.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/raport-wybory-parlamentarne-2023/news-pis-zaostrza-przekaz-to-przekonuje-wyborcow,nId,7050662 -- DEPUTY MINISTER OF SPORT OSUCH RECOMMENDED EDGAR K. TO GLINSKI AS A MEMBER OF THE COUNCIL FOR DIALOGUE WITH THE YOUNG GENERATION, EDGAR K. WAS ALSO WELL ACQUAINTED WITH PIOTR MAZUREK, A VERY TRUSTED COLLABORATOR OF THE MINISTER OF CULTURE - JACEK GĄDEK ON GAZETA.PL: “Deputy Minister of Sport Jacek Osuch (PiS) recommended Edgar K., accused in the visa affair, to former Deputy Prime Minister Prof. Piotr Gliński for membership in the Council for Dialogue with the Young Generation – Gazeta.pl has learned. Osuch himself tells us today that he doesn't recall recommending him, nor does he know him at all, calling the whole matter 'very strange.' Edgar K. was also well acquainted with Piotr Mazurek – until recently the government's plenipotentiary for youth policy, former Secretary of State in the Chancellery of the Prime Minister, but above all a highly trusted collaborator of the Minister of Culture, Prof. Piotr Gliński.” https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,30230711,w-pis-mowili-o-nim-zlote-dziecko-wiemy-kto-edgara-k-rekomendowal.html -- IN PRODUCING POPULISTIC BABBLE, PiS HAS NO EQUAL - RAFAŁ KALUKIN IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “In the boiling propaganda cauldron, of course, all unrelated immigration threads had to dissolve: the crisis in Lampedusa and the dispute over EU relocation, the tension on the Belarusian border, and the visa affair. Because that was the point, to confuse public opinion, to deafen it with noise, putting some into a state of unhealthy excitement, and others – into numbness.” -- WHAT IS NEW IN ALL OF THIS IS THE UNCOMPROMISING NATURE OF TUSK'S ACTIONS, WHO IS SIMPLY CHARGING FORWARD IN THIS CAMPAIGN, WITHOUT WORRYING ABOUT THE INCREASING DEFICIT IN THE IMAGE AND PERSONAL COHESION OF HIS CAMP - KALUKIN FURTHER STATES IN POLITYKA: “On the contrary, the Platform, unable to negate the opponent's advantages in its core area of defending a lawful state, is forced to compete on fronts that are more or less distant in terms of identity: first social, and now migratory. What is new in all of this is the uncompromising nature of Tusk's actions, who is simply charging forward in this campaign, without worrying about the increasing deficit in the image and personal cohesion of his camp. But despite everything, the Platform, with its natural symbolic capital, finds it difficult to build broad credibility on the front of a kind of proxy war, which PiS reminds them of at every step. This usually condemns Tusk's formation to reactivity and ultimately to veiled defense.” -- ALTHOUGH THE CAMPAIGN SEEMS MORE BRUTAL THAN EVER, THE OVERALL SOCIAL PRESSURE IS NOT SKYROCKETING. ONLY THE MOST ENGAGED BUBBLES HAVE BEEN BOILING FOR A LONG TIME - KALUKIN STATES: “Although the campaign seems more brutal than ever, the overall social pressure is not skyrocketing. Only the most engaged bubbles have been boiling for a long time. During the holiday season, this was not a great surprise, but autumn, contrary to predictions, has not yet brought about an upswing. Instead of the expected excitement due to the next in a series of 'most important elections since 1989,' there is apathy and weariness with the conflict. Perhaps we still need to wait for the campaign's finale, when the group of undecided voters usually awakens. Although it cannot be ruled out that the turnout declared in polls at over 60 percent will turn out to be merely wishful thinking, because that's simply how one is supposed to declare.” -- IF THE TURNOUT ON SUNDAY REALLY TURNS OUT TO BE GOOD, IT MAY BE A PRELUDE TO MOBILIZING THE MORE RELUCTANT ONES - KALUKIN'S CONCLUSION: “Few people probably remember the direct pretext for its convocation at the beginning of summer, so it is worth looking for alternative boosters, even if it means further hardening the already convinced bubbles. Because if the turnout on Sunday is indeed good, it may be a prelude to mobilizing the more reluctant and currently withdrawn ones. There won't be better opportunities before October 15th.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2228838,1,zacieranie-afery-wizowej-w-produkowaniu-populistycznego-jazgotu-pis-nie-ma-sobie-rownych.read -- WE HAVE A POGROM ATMOSPHERE - TOMASZ TERLIKOWSKI IN RZ: “This is a perfectly thought-out political strategy, although focused solely on short-term electoral success. It is founded – not only on migration and the refugee crisis, but much more broadly, also on moral and educational issues – on moral panic. Zygmunt Bauman, many years ago, when the first migration crisis was unfolding in Europe, defined this strategy in his book 'Strangers at Our Door' as spreading the conviction among a significant part of society that the well-being, and even survival, of society is threatened. In such a situation, all means to neutralize this threat are permissible, and immoral actions are justified in the name of protecting higher, threatened values.” https://www.rp.pl/publicystyka/art39171351-tomasz-terlikowski-mamy-atmosfere-pogromu -- AND WHAT IS YOUR EXCUSE FOR THE FACT THAT YOUR 19-YEAR-OLD CHILD IS SHAKING LIKE A LEAF BEFORE THEIR FIRST EXAM AT A PRIVATELY FUNDED UNIVERSITY, INSTEAD OF SAVING HUMAN LIVES ALONGSIDE THE YOUNG SIKORSKIS AND MATCZAKS? - ŁUKASZ ŁACHECKI IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “However, another 'truth' might prove just as unpalatable. It would seem that children, driven by ambition, willing to sacrifice, and owing everything to the natural charisma and heroism of a minister's child, an MEP, one of the richest Poles, or a judge's family, can afford a trip to the Mexican jungle or to the front lines of the battle for Mosul during their post-graduation sabbatical ('she found herself in hell on earth. Finally, she felt she was where she belonged,' because it's 'more interesting than sitting at a desk'). And what is your excuse for the fact that your 19-year-old child is shaking like a leaf before their first exam at a privately funded university, instead of saving human lives alongside the young Sikorskis and Matczaks?” -- THE RACISM THAT THE MAIN CHARACTER OF THE TEXT ENCOUNTERS OCCURS IN SCHOOLS FOR CHILDREN WHOSE PARENTS ARE AMONG THE TOP 100 ON 'FORBES' - FURTHER IN ŁACHECKI ON KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “The racism that the main character of the text encounters occurs in schools for children whose parents are among the top 100 on 'Forbes.' Unless you believe that at a time when skin hunters roamed the streets of Łódź, Wiśniewska went through an experimental path of public education? And what can we see in this exclusive world! Kindergarten – a persecuted 'fatso' and a 'Chinese girl' ridiculed for eating dogs and cats. In elementary school, a fight for dignity at a Łódź market. An elite high school? Even from there, Wiśniewska wanted to escape to a place where she would be Ola, not 'primarily that Chinese girl.'” -- MY EXPERIENCE IS DIFFERENT. IT IS THE CHILDREN FROM THESE BETTER HOMES WHO MOST OFTEN – OPENLY OR MORE SUBTLY – FUEL CONTEMPT, CLASSISM, RACISM, AND ELITISM - WRITES ŁACHECKI IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “But my experience is different. It is the children from these better homes who most often – openly or more subtly – fuel contempt, classism, racism, and elitism. It is usually well-earning middle-class people who mock hatred of the police, because unlike lower classes, they do not feel uncomfortable seeing a uniformed patrol with weapons on the street and do not look away. The attempt by the Wiśniewska/Żakowski team to create a narrative of 'I had it tough, the kids are awful, I owe everything to friendships' perhaps coincidentally shows that blaming political evil on the entire world, on those less well-off and educated, is a trap set by the elites.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/wybory-2023-aleksandra-wisniewska-i-bananowe-dzieci-ko/ -- BIRTHDAY: Marek Ast.