state of play: 09/22/2023
POLITICAL STATE OF PLAY: Onet Reports PiS Leading KO by 9 Pts, Przyborska: Smaller Opposition Parties Are Being Blackmailed; Głowacki: Anti-Ukrainian Shift to Win Back Konfederacja Voters, NASK Launches polsk
-- THE THIRD WAY EMBRACES MULTIPLE PATHS: HOŁOWNIA ASKED IF THEY WILL SCRAP 800+ AFTER GAINING POWER: WE'LL SEE WHAT THE POLITICAL CLIMATE WILL BE. I BELIEVE THESE FUNDS SHOULD BE INVESTED IN EDUCATION, NURSERIES, AND HEALTHCARE.
PRIVATIZATION OF ORLEN, PEKAO S.A., AND PKO BP? HOŁOWNIA: THAT IS PETRU'S PRIVATE OPINION. WE ABSOLUTELY DO NOT BELIEVE THESE COMPANIES SHOULD BE PRIVATIZED.
KOSINIAK ON HOLLAND'S FILM: I SAW THE FRAGMENTS AND BELIEVE THEY ARE UNTRUE AND HARMFUL TO POLAND. - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/09/22/
-- PIS PULLS 9 POINTS AHEAD OF KO - IBRIS FOR ONET: "Law and Justice continues to maintain a clear lead over the Civic Coalition. Furthermore, with rising voter turnout, Jarosław Kaczyński's party has widened the gap to its main competitor by 9 percentage points – according to the latest IBRIS poll for Onet. – At this stage of the campaign, PiS may be gaining thanks to its mobilization strategy – believes Marcin Duma, CEO of the institute. However, he emphasizes at the outset that polls are always subject to a margin of error. Konfederacja has returned to third place in the IBRIS poll for Onet, with 9.9% of respondents indicating their support. This is a decrease of 0.2 percentage points. Just behind the podium is Trzecia Droga (Third Way), which can count on 9.2% of the votes. For the coalition of the Polish People's Party and Poland 2050, this represents a decrease of 1 percentage point. It should be noted that the electoral threshold for a coalition is 8%."
https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/nowy-sondaz-wyborczy-pis-rosnie-ko-stoi-w-miejscu-konfederacja-decyduje/w0v4bmv
-- ACCORDING TO PIS RESEARCH, KONFEDERACJA'S RISE WAS DUE TO ANTI-UKRAINIAN SENTIMENT, WHICH IS NOW TO BENEFIT PIS - AGATA KONDZIŃSKA IN GW: "As we hear within PiS – the party conducted research to understand the reasons for Konfederacja's surge in polls, especially in July when they reached double-digit support. – It turned out that anti-Ukrainian sentiment was one of the two or three most important factors – says our source from Nowogrodzka Street. PiS also knows it has lost a segment of voters who did not support their previous Ukrainian policy. – The reasons were varied, referring to Volhynia, nationalistic, historical issues, but with this shift, we can win them back – they add. "Wyborcza" reported back in August that the PiS campaign team was preparing such a strategy. – We will be aggressive and will not back down. Either we take the anti-Ukrainian electorate, or Konfederacja will – a high-ranking politician from the ruling camp told us then. This refers to the votes of farmers and young women."
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,30215217,pis-nasila-gre-na-antyukrainskich-nastrojach-partia-zbadala.html
-- PIS'S ANTI-UKRAINIAN SHIFT IS A GAMBLE FOR KONFEDERACJA'S VOTES - WITOLD GŁOWACKI IN OKO.PRESS: "If anything could have secured Kaczyński, Morawiecki, and Duda a slightly better place in history than that of the Sanation colonels, it was their reaction to Russian aggression against Ukraine. Instead, they chose a short-term campaign gain. (...) This is a cynical and calculated game – aimed at provoking pre-election emotions favorable to PiS. The ruling party, which for a long time balanced its polling problems with the "rally 'round the flag" effect resulting from Polish support for Ukraine, is now changing its front – in order to win back Konfederacja voters."
https://oko.press/pis-usiluje-sprzedac-ukraine-konfederacji
-- PIS DID NOT SEEK CONFLICT WITH UKRAINE, BUT MAY BECOME THE BIGGEST WINNER OF THIS TURMOIL - RAFAŁ WOŚ IN INTERIA: "At this moment, the emotions have not yet subsided. But it seems to me that when we look at the issue again in a few days or weeks, we will see that something has happened here that had to happen. And life will go on. This also applies to Polish-Ukrainian relations, which do not have to be ruined forever. And the Morawiecki government? It seems to me that it may ultimately turn out to be the biggest winner of the latest dispute. A fortunate coincidence has helped them defuse a ticking bomb under their own political electorate. PiS has three weeks left to show its voters that it will not sell them out, even at the cost of the sweet reputation of Ukraine's best friend. Who knows if this will not help them win back precisely that group of voters who have drifted away from them in recent months towards Konfederacja. And this could be decisive in these elections."
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-pis-nie-szukalo-sporu-ukraina-ale-moze-okazac-sie-najwiekszy,nId,7040894
-- WE APPEAL TO THE PRESIDENT AND PRIME MINISTER TO CHANGE THIS COURSE, WHICH IS FATAL FOR THE COUNTRY - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: "When politicians of the ruling camp only think about elections, it is easier for them to unleash campaigns of hatred – against Agnieszka Holland, against Ukraine, against Germany, against illegal migrants – even at the cost of our international position, than to think about the future. This would mean that from October 15th, things can only get worse. However, we appeal to the president and prime minister to change this course, which is fatal for the country. It is not too late to save Poland's image."
https://www.rp.pl/publicystyka/art39149391-michal-szuldrzynski-pis-roznieca-niechec-do-ukrainy-zabojczy-dla-polski-kurs
-- ONCE AGAIN, LEADERS OF SMALLER OPPOSITION PARTIES ARE BEING BLACKMAILED: IF THEY DON'T PARTICIPATE, THEY WILL BE ACCUSED OR RIDICULED - KATARZYNA PRZYBORSKA IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: "Meanwhile, ten days before the march, the leaders of Trzecia Droga announced that they had planned events across Poland for that day, and candidates would be mobilizing undecided voters in their constituencies. What happened? They didn't receive a call from Donald Tusk, nor did the leaders of Lewica. There was no joint meeting, no idea of how to present themselves, what to say. On the contrary, the statements of the PO leader and spokesman Jan Grabiec indicate that this is a one-party event, albeit open to everyone for whom ousting PiS from power is paramount. PSL leader Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz stated: "There's no point competing; if someone is organizing a great event, it should be respected." Once again, the leaders of smaller opposition parties are being somewhat blackmailed: if they don't participate, they will be accused or ridiculed for being offended. If they do participate, they risk disappearing into the crowd, and will speak to their voters from the roof of a car or from behind bushes."
-- LEWICA VOTERS ALREADY SEE THAT IF PO WINS, THERE WILL BE A RETURN TO THE "ABORTION COMPROMISE" AND THE DEMAND FOR RELIGION IN THE FIRST OR LAST LESSON – MEANING A GOAL NEVER FULFILLED - PRZYBORSKA CONTINUES: "Do opposition politicians have reasons to regret not being on stage next to Donald Tusk? His decisions to accept Marcin Kołodziejczak or Roman Giertych onto the lists proved controversial, did not bring a sharp increase in popularity, and even caused some discouragement. Lewica voters already see that if PO wins, there will be a return to the "abortion compromise" and the demand for religion in the first or last lesson – meaning a goal never fulfilled. Will Poland be social after the elections? Will we return to wild liberalism, with the argument being the need to pay off the debts that PiS has plunged us into? The same – i.e., ruthlessness – is feared by Trzecia Droga voters."
-- THEY ALSO HEAR COMPLAINTS THAT THEY ARE NOT ENGAGING ENOUGH, THAT THEY ARE NOT ATTENDING PROTESTS (ALTHOUGH THEY ARE), AND WHEN THEY PROTEST LOUDLY AGAINST BALCEROWICZ, A PROPONENT OF INEQUALITY, THEY ARE SCORED BECAUSE THEY ARE JUST AS RUDELY AS THE ANTI-SEMITIC BRAUN - PRZYBORSKA CONTINUES IN KRYTYKA: "We are not feeding hope to the youth: school is tightening the screws on them, they constantly hear about the climate catastrophe, war just across the border, sex has become dangerous because one can die from pregnancy, and for two years they were confined to their homes due to the pandemic. They also hear complaints that they are not engaging enough, that they are not attending protests (although they are), and when they loudly protest against Balcerowicz, a proponent of inequality, they are reprimanded because they are just as rude as the anti-Semitic Braun. I would like the march on October 1st not to be just another installment of the war, but to feed hope, to awaken joy. Even if it sounds a bit sentimental, the reaction of the girls to the clip "Ole, Olek" made me think."
https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/tusk-trzyma-karty-przy-orderach-kto-pojdzie-w-marszu-1-pazdziernika/
-- THE OPPOSITION VOTER HAS NO TOOLS TO ASSESS WHETHER A GIVEN SCANDAL WILL HARM PIS, BECAUSE THEY LOOK AT POWER, THE STATE, AND SCANDALS THROUGH DIFFERENT LENSES - KATARZYNA SKRZYDŁOWSKA-KALUKIN IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: "If voters of the ruling party are not discouraged by the violation of the rule of law, poor relations with the European Union, loss of EU funds, cronyism, propaganda, it means that the opposition voter has no tools to assess whether a given scandal will harm PiS, because they look at power, the state, and scandals through different lenses. It is therefore possible that if a scandal occurs that sinks PiS, the opposition voter will not understand any of it. Just as they did not understand why PiS managed to take power in Poland for at least eight years."
https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2023/09/21/skrzydlowska-kalukin-czy-afera-wizowa-obali-pis/
-- THE MAFIA WILL DO EVERYTHING TO MAINTAIN POWER, INFLUENCE, AND PRIVILEGES. THAT IS THE SENSE OF THE MAFIA'S EXISTENCE. SO NOW IT'S ABOUT WINNING BACK THE VOTES OF ANGRY FARMERS, OUTBIDDING KONFEDERACJA ON ANTI-UKRAINIAN SENTIMENT, AND FINALLY COVERING UP THE VISA SCANDAL. - JAROSŁAW KURSKI IN GW: "PiS is like the mafia. And the mafia will do anything to maintain power, influence, and privileges. That is the essence of the mafia's existence. So now it's about winning back the votes of angry farmers, outbidding Konfederacja on anti-Ukrainian sentiment, and finally covering up the visa scandal. They are capable people. Capable of anything. So let's remain calm, do our part, and vote for democrats. And besides, there should be a single list. But since there isn't one, let the democrats act in solidarity, as if there were."
https://wyborcza.pl/7,82983,30215492,jaroslaw-kurski-to-zdolni-ludzie-zdolni-do-wszystkiego.html
-- GIVE POLES BACK SUNDAY TRADING - PAWEŁ ROŻYŃSKI IN RZ: "The ban on Sunday trading, introduced by the PiS government under pressure from Solidarność, is an anachronism and a violation of freedom of choice. For the good of both consumers and shops, it should finally be shelved. This means that Poles are not guided by any ideology, but primarily by their convenience. Lifting the ban would also bring economic benefits – hence, the majority of economists surveyed by "Rzeczpospolita" in our panel support such a scenario."
https://www.rp.pl/opinie-ekonomiczne/art39149121-pawel-rozynski-oddajcie-polakom-niedziele-handlowe
-- WHO SHOPS ONLINE MORE READILY: POLES OR SPANIARDS? HOW MANY BATTERIES FOR ELECTRIC CARS DRIVING ON EUROPE'S STREETS COME FROM THE VISTULA, AND HOW MANY FROM GERMANY OR HUNGARY? THE SERIVCE POLSKANATLE.PL HAS BEEN LAUNCHED.
https://300polityka.pl/biznes/2023/09/21/kto-chetniej-robi-zakupy-w-sieci-polacy-czy-hiszpanie-ile-baterii-do-aut-elektrycznych-jezdzacych-po-ulicach-europy-pochodzi-znad-wisly-a-ile-z-niemiec-lub-wegier-ruszyl-serwis-polskanatle-pl/
-- BIRTHDAYS: Michał Jach, Katarzyna Maria Piekarska, Jakub Górnicki, Michał Sznajder, Mirosława Nykiel, Elżbieta Stępień.
live
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"Political Personal Business": Siemoniak on the National Security Council's Agenda
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Wawer: If PiS Politicians Say Marshal Czarzasty Should Be Recalled Because the US Ambassador Dislikes Him – That's Not a Serious Approach to Governing
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„A Necessity for Poland's Security.” — Czarnek Calls for Czarzasty's Resignation
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„In My Opinion, Yes.” — Glapiński on Whether March is a Good Time for an Interest Rate Cut
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Glapiński: All Forecasts Indicate Inflation's Return to Target in Poland is Sustainable
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