state of play: 09/21/2023
STATE OF PLAY: "Tusk's Plan is '3 Ms': Mobilization, March, Sidestep"; Dziubka: "Civic Coalition Observes Sharper Course Boosts PiS Ratings"; Gadomski: "Without Pension System Reform, Public Services Will Suffer"
-- THE EMOTIONS OF WAR HAVE EVIDENTLY SUBSIDED - TOMASZ STAWISZYŃSKI IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: "Well, a year and a half has passed, and – at least for now – there's no sign of any spectacular conclusion. The media, not just social media, still occasionally show a livelier interest in wartime issues – usually when something happens that can be turned into a catchy headline (because online, people nowadays read almost exclusively headlines) – but the emotions have evidently subsided. And even if they periodically condense somewhere, it's more often, for example, in the context of heatwaves and fires plaguing Southern Europe than the Ukrainian offensive or drones managing to evade Moscow's air defenses."
-- FIRST EXALTATION, THEN FALL, RETURN TO DAILY LIFE, HABITUATION - STAWISZYŃSKI CONTINUES IN TYGODNIK: "It's a specific, yet well-known dynamic: first exaltation, then a fall, a return to daily life, habituation. We can observe this not only in ourselves – and around us – in relation to the war in Ukraine, but also, for example, in relation to various political scandals. Remember? The emotional atmosphere usually reaches its peak at the beginning, only to then transition into a state of almost complete dormancy and indifference. How many 'definitive embarrassments' of this or that politician, this or that camp, how many 'ends of democracy,' how many 'ultimate collapses' have there been? Exactly."
https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/pamietacie-pierwsze-godziny-dni-tygodnie-wojny-w-ukrainie-184702
-- BOSAK ON UKRAINE: 'WE PROBABLY NEED TO START TALKING TO THAT COUNTRY MORE ASSERTIVELY'; SIEMONIAK: 'THERE WILL BE NO GOVERNMENT WITH KONFEDERACJA' - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/09/21/
-- DONALD TUSK'S STAFF FEAR THE STRENGTHENING OF ANTI-UKRAINIAN SENTIMENTS AND DON'T EXACTLY KNOW WHAT STRATEGY THE PARTY SHOULD ADOPT REGARDING THE PIS-KYIV CONFLICT; IN RECENT WEEKS, DUE TO PI'S SHARPER COURSE TOWARDS UKRAINE, THE RULING CAMP'S RATINGS HAVE ACTUALLY INCREASED - KAMIL DZIUBKA IN ONET: "Donald Tusk's strategists fear the strengthening of anti-Ukrainian sentiments and, in case of trouble, don't exactly know what strategy the party should adopt regarding the PiS-Kyiv conflict. This is because they are unsure if the issue will genuinely harm the ruling party – this is according to our conversations with Civic Platform politicians. Internal surveys indicate that in recent weeks, due to PiS's sharper course towards Ukraine, the ruling camp's ratings have actually increased."
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/platforma-zaskakuje-w-sprawie-ukrainy-przygladamy-sie/26436zr,79cfc278
-- A TRADE WAR BETWEEN POLAND AND UKRAINE WOULD BE AN ABSURDITY - BOGUSŁAW CHRABOTA IN RZ: "Therefore, we strongly urge both governments to step back from this dangerous path. Prime Minister Morawiecki, we kindly ask for prudence and not to inflame sentiments. Mr. Minister Kaczka, more understanding for our neighbors. You cannot change geography. And in the hard world of international interests, other matters count too, not just the egoistically perceived issue of Ukrainian grain sales. Retaliations can still be halted. Talk to Zelensky. Seriously."
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art39141701-boguslaw-chrabota-wojna-handlowa-polski-z-ukraina-bylaby-absurdem
-- THE OPPOSITION KNOWS IT IS FAR BEHIND ITS CAMPAIGN PLAN. THAT IS WHY WE ARE AND WILL BE WITNESSES TO MAD CHARGES - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: "The opposition knows it is far behind its campaign plan. That is why we are and will be witnesses to mad charges. The hysteria surrounding the fabricated 'visa affair,' attempts to sabotage PiS politicians' meetings, threatening a TVP journalist with criminal responsibility – these are probably just the beginning. Look at Donald Tusk's face. If the campaign is going so well for him, why is he so glum? If everything is succeeding, why call for Trzaskowski's help? It's not just fear of defeat. His German sponsors have invested so much in him, imposed sanctions, are pouring money in, are firing from German media published for Poles, that a loss looming on the horizon could mean serious trouble for the Civic Platform leader. Perhaps in spheres we have no idea about. But that will be after October 15th. PiS still faces a long and tough battle with a very dangerous opponent."
https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/663413-opozycja-wie-ze-jest-poza-planem
-- DONALD TUSK'S PLAN IS SIMPLE AND CAN BE SUMMARIZED IN THREE SLOGANS: MOBILIZATION, MARCH, SIDESTEP - MALWINA DZIEDZIC IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: "Donald Tusk's plan is simple and can be summarized in three slogans: Mobilization, March, Sidestep. And although post-holiday polls showed that significant effort would be needed to overtake PiS, the opposition has just been given a chance for a strong rebound."
-- ONE THING IS CERTAIN THOUGH: CONTRARY TO THE SPECULATION THAT IS ALREADY APPEARING AND THE APPEALS OF SOME COMMENTATORS TO EMPLOY KACZYŃSKI'S MANEUVER AND HIDE BEHIND ANOTHER POLITICIAN, TUSK WILL NOT HAND OVER THE BATON TO TRZASKOWSKI BEFORE THE ELECTION - DZIEDZIC CONTINUES: "Anything can happen, which is why Tusk – as he admits himself – has a 'multi-variant plan' and is 'prepared for every circumstance.' However, one thing is certain: contrary to the speculation that is already appearing and the appeals of some commentators to employ Kaczyński's maneuver and hide behind another politician, Tusk will not hand over the baton to Trzaskowski before the election. The Civic Platform has already practiced this maneuver in 2019, when under public pressure, Grzegorz Schetyna designated Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska as the candidate for future prime minister. And it yielded nothing. 'Donald will not back down, otherwise he would question the sense of his return. Besides, Rafał is neither Morawiecki nor Szydło,' emphasizes our source within the Civic Platform leadership."
-- 'WE WILL SHOW THAT WE HAVE TWO LEADERS' - MALWINA DZIEDZIC QUOTES A CIVIC COALITION STRATEGIST: "The chance to galvanize women and young people for greater electoral activity is to be achieved not only by raising slogans like 'secular state' or 'legal abortion up to the 12th week of pregnancy,' but also by involving Rafał Trzaskowski in the campaign. The Mayor of Warsaw has also set out across Poland, meeting people; he will appear alongside Tusk at the march on October 1st. 'We will show that we have two leaders who have divided the tasks,' we hear from within the Civic Platform leadership. 'Rafał managed to convince Donald that he needs to differentiate himself from him. He must be different, he cannot speak, or even look like Donald, because only then do we have a chance to broaden the electorate,' says someone from Trzaskowski's circle."
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2227930,1,trzy-m-plan-tuska-na-kampanie-na-pewno-nie-zastosuje-manewru-kaczynskiego.read
-- RALPH BEISEL, DIRECTOR OF THE GERMAN ASSOCIATION OF AIRPORT OPERATORS ADV, ASSESSES THE CPK PROJECT VERY POSITIVELY - ALEKSANDRA FEDORSKA, DEUTSCHE WELLE IN GAZETA.PL: "Ralph Beisel, director of the German Association of Airport Operators ADV, assesses the CPK project very positively. From his perspective, many aviation development projects currently underway in Poland would also be needed in Germany. Beisel regrets that the competitiveness of air transport in Germany is weakening – mainly due to increasingly high fees and taxes, which negatively impacts the condition of airports. In addition, passenger numbers in Poland are growing faster than in other European countries. In Germany, rail and air transport are perceived as contradictory and pitted against each other. Their infrastructures are divided instead of connected – explains the expert. Meanwhile, in Poland – as he says – the government is concentrating on expanding the high-speed rail network, and rail and air transport are perceived as a whole and strengthened together."
https://next.gazeta.pl/next/7,168930,30212829,cpk-konkurencja-dla-niemieckiego-lotniska-berlin-chcial-byc.html
-- 'I HOPE THAT WHEN THE ELECTION FIGHTS DIE DOWN A BIT, POLITICIANS OF ALL PARTIES WILL REALIZE THAT WITHOUT REFORMING THE PENSION SYSTEM, THE BUDGET WILL LACK FUNDS TO MAINTAIN PUBLIC SERVICES AT A GOOD LEVEL' - WITOLD GADOMSKI IN GW: "The reform of the pension system should be removed from political disputes. In the current atmosphere of ruthless political struggle, this postulate seems unrealistic, but one can hope that in a few years the political conflict, which stems from the struggle for power and privileges associated with it, rather than programmatic differences, will weaken. Politicians will realize that without reforming the pension system, the budget will lack funds to maintain public services at a good level. In such a situation, governing Poland will become extremely difficult."
-- 'INTER-PARTY CONSENSUS SHOULD CONCERN THE GRADUAL RAISING OF THE RETIREMENT AGE, EQUALIZING THE RETIREMENT AGE FOR WOMEN AND MEN, AND ABOVE ALL, INCENTIVES FOR SAVING' - GADOMSKI CONTINUES IN GW: "Inter-party consensus should concern the gradual raising of the retirement age, equalizing the retirement age for women and men, and above all, incentives for saving in private pension funds. The state should guarantee and pay a minimum pension (around 50% of the minimum wage), which would be due to all individuals who have reached the statutory retirement age and have sufficient work experience, while other income for pensioners would come from private pension funds."
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30209601,okiem-liberala-nie-uciekniemy-od-reformy-emerytalnej.html
-- 26 YEARS AGO, AKCJA WYBORCZA SOLIDARNOŚĆ (SOLIDARITY ELECTORAL ACTION) WON THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS.
-- THE ARCHIVE OF POLISH ELECTION POSTERS DOES NOT EXIST. BECAUSE WHAT FOR? IT'S TRASH, A COLLECTION OF NIGHTMARISH DESIGN AND PATHETIC SLOGANS. YET, ONE CAN SEE IN THEM THE HISTORY OF POLISH FEARS AND ASPIRATIONS - ZOFIA LESZCZYŃSKA IN DWUTYGODNIK: "In 2000, a classmate brought to school and solemnly distributed to the entire 3c election materials of Marian Krzaklewski, who was running for president: posters, balloons, leaflets, pens, and t-shirts in an optimistic yellow, with the unpersuasive but rhythmic slogan 'KRZAK YES.' It turned out that the classmate belonged to the AWS youth wing. The materials, the slogan, the dimple in Krzak's chin, and the thought that someone our age could be seriously involved in politics seemed absurd to us. A dozen or so years later, I started wondering what happened to these items. Are people still writing with those Krzak pens? Are people in Poland still wearing t-shirts with Krzak, even for sleeping? What happened to all this election material, printed cotton, and paper?"
https://www.dwutygodnik.com/artykul/7799-pozytki-ze-zrywania-plakatow.html?print=1
-- BIRTHDAYS: Jan Olbrycht, Tadeusz Jarmuziewicz, Waldemar Buda.
live
3 hours
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Siemoniak: Someone Invented It – Probably Cenckiewicz – That the National Security Council Should Be a Court for Czarzasty
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"Political Personal Business": Siemoniak on the National Security Council's Agenda
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„Sometimes Even Friends Argue.” — Siemoniak Calm About Poland's Relations with the USA
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Wawer: If PiS Politicians Say Marshal Czarzasty Should Be Recalled Because the US Ambassador Dislikes Him – That's Not a Serious Approach to Governing
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Kierwiński: We respect alliances. We do not forget honor, pride, and sovereignty
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„A Necessity for Poland's Security.” — Czarnek Calls for Czarzasty's Resignation
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„In My Opinion, Yes.” — Glapiński on Whether March is a Good Time for an Interest Rate Cut
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Glapiński: All Forecasts Indicate Inflation's Return to Target in Poland is Sustainable
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