state of play: 09/12/2023

POLITICAL LANDSCAPE: Civic Coalition Mimics PiS's Immigration Stance, 88% of Poles Unwilling to Delay Pensions

Łukasz Mężyk

-- 88% OF PEOPLE DID NOT WANT TO DELAY PENSIONS FOR A SINGLE MOMENT - MIKOŁAJ FIDZIŃSKI IN GAZETA.PL: “ZUS President Prof. Gertruda Uścińska once wrote in an article for Akademia Biznesu that a portion of individuals tended to postpone their retirement decisions. She compared it to, for example, 2017 (the year the retirement age was lowered), when essentially 88% of people did not want to delay their pensions for a moment. This does not change the fact that the vast majority of Poles still go to ZUS at the first possible opportunity.” https://jedennewsdziennie.pl/article/59#s=BoxOpMT -- MORAWIECKI IN A SPOT: POLAND WILL NOT ALLOW ITSELF TO BE FLOODED BY UKRAINIAN GRAIN. REGARDLESS OF BRUSSELS OFFICIALS' DECISIONS, WE WILL NOT OPEN THE BORDER, MÜLLER ANNOUNCES GOVERNMENT RESOLUTION CALLING ON THE EC TO EXTEND THE BAN ON UKRAINIAN GRAIN IMPORTS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/09/12/ -- CIVIC COALITION – WHOSE CANDIDATES WEAR RED AND WHITE HEARTS ON THEIR CHESTS, SYMBOLS OF OPENNESS AND TOLERANCE – IS SLOWLY CATCHING UP TO PIS IN ITS OBJECTIVE TREATMENT OF IMMIGRANTS - MARCIN ŻYŁA IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “The Civic Coalition – whose candidates wear red and white hearts on their chests, symbols of openness and tolerance – is slowly catching up to PiS in its objective treatment of immigrants. Thousands of Poles, who are helping at the Belarusian border, are fed up with fear-driven politics, or simply sympathize with migrants, support the Civic Coalition. Therefore, it is better not to reveal before the elections that after taking power, the current opposition would continue PiS's actions, for example, strengthening the eastern border. Certainly, some KO voters – those convinced that any means can be used to defeat Jarosław Kaczyński – will say about the campaign spot: 'it's just campaigning.' Or that the PiS leader did worse things, for instance, talked about migrants in the context of germs. The problem is that primitive propaganda works like cluster bombs – it affects not only the emotions it targets.” https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/tusk-tez-straszy-imigrantami-184620 -- THE KEY IS 231 SEATS, NOT 1ST PLACE IN THE ELECTION. FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF AN UNDECIDED OPPOSITION VOTER'S VOTING TACTICS, VOTING FOR CIVIC COALITION SOLELY TO DEFEAT PIS BY EVEN ONE VOTE MAKES NO GREATER SENSE - MICHAŁ DANIELEWSKI IN OKO.PRESS: “To summarize – from the perspective of an undecided opposition voter's voting tactics, casting a vote for the Civic Coalition just to defeat PiS by even one vote makes no greater sense. Even if that happens, President Duda will still be able to nominate someone from PiS as prime minister in the first step. For this maneuver to fail, the Civic Coalition, Third Way, and the Left simply must have at least 231 deputies. Then, in the second constitutional step, they will be able to appoint a prime minister and form a government, and President Duda will have no say. And 231 seats for the opposition depend as much on the results of the Civic Coalition and PiS as on the results of the Third Way and the Left. The better the results of the two smaller parties are compared to Confederation, the higher the probability of forming an opposition government after the elections.” https://oko.press/prezydent-nie-musi-wskazac-premiera-wygranych -- FOR TWO DECADES, POLISH POLITICS HAS HAD LITTLE INFLUENCE ON WHAT IS REALIZED IN THE COUNTRY; MAINLY THINGS REQUIRED BY THE EUROPEAN UNION ARE DONE - GRZEGORZ SROCZYŃSKI IN GAZETA.PL: “Will anything from this deluge of programmatic 'specifics' and pious wishes of the Polish political class result for voters? Probably something, but not much. For two decades, Polish politics has had little influence on what is realized in the country; mainly things required by the European Union are done, and not even in the form of directives, but in fine print, i.e., in the detailed regulations for the disbursement of EU funds – something is included or not, then something is realized, or not realized, because otherwise, the subsidies won't be settled, and this is broadly how the priorities of Polish public policy are formed.” -- SROCZYŃSKI ON UNRESOLVABLE ISSUES - USING THE EXAMPLE OF GERIATRICIANS: "After a hundred days, prices in shops will be lower, people will have more, and life will be better in every home." Did Lepper say that? No, it was Donald Tusk on Saturday. Platforma's "one hundred specifics for one hundred days" is truly ambitious; it includes issues that have not been resolved for almost the entire Third Republic. For example, specific number 32 clearly states that "thanks to unblocked EU funds, we will increase the availability of geriatric doctors," and all this – I emphasize – within a hundred days. There is a shortage of geriatricians in Poland, and this has not been resolved for 1452 days under Ewa Kopacz, for 1305 days under Bartosz Arłukowicz, for 135 days under Marian Zembala, for 785 days under Konstanty Radziwiłł, for 954 days under Łukasz Szumowski, and for 1079 days under Adam Niedzielski. Since 2004, geriatrics has been treated as a "priority field" in Polish documents and ministerial plans (because in the same year we joined the Union, and as part of polishing our image, it was fitting to include such socially oriented pieces in various places), and at the same time, the number of geriatricians has consistently decreased. In 2019, only – pay attention! – two residents chose this specialization nationwide, three in 2020, and one in 2021. If the Platform, after taking power, solves the problem in a hundred days (perhaps with the help of the same Arłukowicz), it will have to be considered a miracle, and a national pilgrimage to the birthplace of Chairman Tusk should be declared. -- THE OPPOSITION COMMENTARY'S SHOUTS - "WE WON THE SATURDAY! KACZYŃSKI WAS BORING, THEY DIDN'T DETONATE ANY BOMBS!" - ARE SOMEWHAT EXAGGERATED. PERHAPS THE CONVENTION WAS MEANT TO BE BORING, WITHOUT FIREWORKS, BECAUSE THAT'S WHAT PIS IS AIMING FOR NOW: TO DRAG THEMSELVES TO OCTOBER 15TH WITH A DECENT RESULT - WRITES SROCZYŃSKI: “However, I fear that the shouts of the opposition commentary – 'We won Saturday! Kaczyński was boring, they didn't detonate any bombs!' – are somewhat exaggerated. Perhaps the convention was meant to be boring, without fireworks, because that's what PiS is aiming for now: to drag themselves to October 15th with a decent result, not to alienate anyone further, to use old tricks, to hoard votes while pretending to be a party of peace and stability. If so, the convention perfectly served this purpose; the voter received the boring stability of the ruling party without excesses, which is something many Poles dream of – at least for a year or two of some semblance of peace.” https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,30175285,kaczynski-uspil-referatem-nawet-wiernych-druhow-moze-po-to.html -- IT IS HARMFUL TO UNDERMINE A CERTAIN PRINCIPLE OF DEMOCRACY, WHICH PIS HAS NOT YET OVERTHROWN, VOTES ARE COUNTED HONESTLY - SOCIOLOGIST FROM UW IN MICHAŁ WOJCZUK'S ARTICLE IN GW: “- It seems to me that Tusk did not accuse of blatant fraud at the level of vote counting, but rather wanted to signal that in 2020, the entire state machinery was harnessed to promote Duda. Those elections were not fair in terms of equal opportunities for campaigning – adds Dr. Wojciech Rafałowski, a political sociologist from the University of Warsaw, author of the book "Parliamentary Campaigns in Poland." But he frowns: - From the perspective of democracy, I would prefer Tusk to say: 'We lost by a hair's breadth then, let's mobilize to win this time.' It is harmful to undermine a certain principle of democracy, which PiS has not yet overthrown, votes are counted honestly.” https://warszawa.wyborcza.pl/warszawa/7,54420,30178449,dlaczego-tusk-mowi-ze-to-trzaskowski-wygral-wybory-prezydenckie.html -- PIS IS TESTING CANDIDATES FOR CITY MAYORS - INCLUDING DMOWSKA-ANDRZEJKUK IN WARSAW AND ŚLIWKA IN ELBLĄG: “According to Radio ZET findings, PiS has nominated – in Lublin, MP and former Deputy Minister of the Interior and Administration Sylwester Tułajew; in Białystok, Marshal of the Podlaskie Voivodeship Artur Kosicki; and in Lubin, Prime Minister's Political Cabinet Head Krzysztof Kubów – to run for city mayor. MP Kacper Płażyński is to be the candidate for Mayor of Gdańsk, and MP Agnieszka Soin will run for Mayor of Wrocław. Deputy Minister of State Assets Andrzej Śliwka is to run in the elections for Mayor of Elbląg. PiS's candidate for Mayor of Warsaw is Danuta Dmowska-Andrzejuk, a Polish fencer, world and European champion, and former soldier. From 2019 to 2020, she was the head of the Ministry of Sport in Mateusz Morawiecki's second government.” https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,30178880,pis-juz-szykuje-kandydatow-do-wyborow-samorzadowych-nieoficjalnie.html -- ANOTHER SPOT IN THE LOCAL CAMPAIGN. DEPUTY HEAD OF MAP ANDRZEJ ŚLIWKA: “I PROMISE I WILL WORK HARD EVERY DAY” https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/09/12/kolejny-spot-w-kampanii-lokalnej-wiceszef-map-andrzej-sliwka-obiecuje-ze-bede-ciezko-pracowal-kazdego-dnia/ -- 34 YEARS AGO, the Sejm granted a vote of confidence to the government of Tadeusz Mazowiecki, the first non-communist prime minister in post-war Polish history. -- 93RD ANNIVERSARY OF PIOTR SKRZYNECTKI'S BIRTH. -- BIRTHDAYS: Adam Bielan, Bogusław Liberadzki, Eugeniusz Czykwin, Lidia Geringer de Oedenberg, Wojciech Jagielski, Barbara Dolniak, Anna Dryjańska.

Łukasz Mężyk