state of play: 09/11/2023

STATE OF PLAY: Gadomski Says Average Pole Uninterested in Politics, Not a Patriot of Democracy, Might Think They Live in a Calm Country; Michalski: Anti-Patriotic Hate from Liberal Media Fans of Zandberg Slowed Voter Flow to the Left

Łukasz Mężyk

-- KACZYŃSKI, A CAT, AND A NOKIA. IN THE "SUBJUGATED POLAND" SPOT, THE PIS CHAIRMAN SENDS THE GERMAN CHANCELLOR PACKING: https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/09/11/kaczynski-kot-i-nokia-w-spocie-podmiotowapolska-prezes-pis-odsyla-kanclerza-niemiec-z-kwitkiem/ -- MASTALEREK: TODAY IT SEEMS PIS HAS A GREAT CHANCE TO RULE ALONE AGAIN - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/09/11/ -- ADAM STRZEMBOSZ TURNS 93 TODAY, AND SWIATŁANA CIECHANOUSKA TURNS 41. -- FEMALE MPS RECITED A RHYME LIKE KINDERGARTENERS WITH A SMILE: "IN OCTOBER, ON THE FIFTEENTH, WE'LL CHASE KACZYŃSKI AWAY." CURRENTLY, NO POLL INDICATES KACZYŃSKI WILL BE "CHASED AWAY" AFTER THE ELECTION - WITOLD GADOMSKI IN GW: “The most annoying scene I’ve watched on TV recently was the performance of two ladies from Civic Coalition, who, like kindergarteners, recited with a smile: 'In October, on the fifteenth, we'll chase Kaczyński away.' Currently, no poll indicates that Kaczyński will be 'chased away' after the elections, and the smiling ladies did not explain how they intend to change voters' attitudes within a month, nor what Civic Platform and its allies will do if they lose the elections again. Polls suggest that after the elections, either a single-party PiS government, or, as one prefers, United Right, or a PiS-Confederation coalition government will be formed. I leave it to the readers to consider which option would be better.” -- CONSERVATIVE POLAND FEARS SOMEONE WANTS TO IMPOSE A CHANGE TO ITS LIFESTYLE, PROGRESSIVE POLAND DOESN'T UNDERSTAND WHY SOMEONE INSISTS ON THEIR NAÏVE STYLE - GADOMSKI CONTINUES IN GW: “Conservative Poland fears that someone wants to impose a change to its lifestyle, while progressive Poland doesn't understand why someone insists on their naïve style. The battlefield is, of course, history. Documents and testimonies indicate the not-so-noble (to put it mildly) behavior of a significant portion of Poles during the German occupation, but few are willing to admit that their grandfather was a black marketeer during the war, or that the apartment where family gatherings take place once belonged to a murdered Jewish family. PiS, of course, defends traditional Poland, reassuring the average Pole's conscience (black marketeers were an insignificant fringe, fought by true Poles), and the opposition politicians' attempts to prevent PiS from appropriating Polish history and tradition are largely ineffective.” -- THE AVERAGE POLE, UNINTERESTED IN POLITICS, NOT A PATRIOT OF DEMOCRACY AND THE RULE OF LAW, MAY THINK THEY LIVE IN A QUITE CALM COUNTRY, HAVE A JOB, AND CAN AFFORD A VACATION, EVEN ABROAD - WITOLD GADOMSKI CONTINUES IN GW: “Despite inflation and economic slowdown, Poles are still living reasonably well. Meanwhile, a bloody war is raging in a neighboring country, the former president of the United States is accused of numerous crimes, and the current president’s son is accused of corruption. In many European countries, we are witnessing the decline of traditional parties, and on a global scale, tectonic shifts are occurring. The average Pole, uninterested in politics, not a patriot of democracy and the rule of law, may think they live in a quite calm country, have a job, and can afford a vacation, even abroad. Most importantly, they don't believe that the opposition, if it comes to power, will offer them a better life.” -- APPARENTLY, THE OPPOSITION CAN'T PERSUADE FOR NOW - GADOMSKI'S CONCLUSION IN GW: “The opposition cannot change the historical views of a large part of Poles, nor can it persuade them to change their lifestyle, or convince them that one shouldn't call an African person a 'Negro' or a gay person a 'faggot.' However, it could convince them that it has better qualifications to govern, will protect them from threats, improve the quality of public services, and raise living standards. But apparently, it cannot do so yet.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30174190,ten-teflonowy-pis-skad-sie-bierze-niezmiennie-wysokie-poparcie.html -- CONCRETE PROPOSALS? ONLY A FEW, AND BEYOND THAT, MANY PROMISES AND CONSIDERABLE DOUBTS - THIS IS HOW THE CIVIC COALITION GOES TO THE ELECTIONS - WITOLD GADOMSKI IN GW: “When asked how it will finance new expenditures, it responds that its government will reduce spending on administration, which will not finance the KO’s promises in any way, let alone reduce the budget deficit. The leader of Civic Platform’s statement also included a sentence about greater government credibility after a change of administration. This could mean that the solution is to increase borrowing. Electoral propaganda specialists constantly repeat that emotions are the most important thing in a campaign. But emotions probably don't override simple arithmetic, and in KO's promises, it doesn't add up.” ​​https://wyborcza.biz/biznes/7,179195,30172880,konkrety-tylko-kilka-a-poza-tym-duzo-obietnic-i-sporo-watpliwosci.html -- THE CIVIC COALITION'S PROGRAM IS MORE ABOUT EXTINGUISHING RECENT FIRES THAN A COMPREHENSIVE STRATEGY - SEBASTIAN OGÓREK IN WYBORCZA.PL: “It must be admitted that the Civic Coalition's program is more about extinguishing recent fires than a comprehensive strategy. It's an ideal solution for elections and an attempt to win over voters, but its implementation might look worse. However, it seems that Donald Tusk prefers to shoulder the burden of 100 promises, outbid PiS, and win the election this way, rather than go with a 'minimum' program, convincing voters with rationality.” -- THE PROBLEM WITH THE COALITION'S PROGRAM IS ALSO THAT, LIKE PiS, IT WANTS TO BUY VOTERS - OGÓREK CONTINUES: “The problem with the Coalition's program is also that, like PiS, it wants to buy voters. The higher amount from taxes alone would cost tens of billions of zlotys – or rather, represent a loss of revenue – annually. And yet, Mateusz Morawiecki's government is leaving the treasury empty. Moreover, after the elections, it will be a state facing increasingly burdensome debt costs.” https://wyborcza.biz/biznes/7,179195,30173512,bitwa-o-niezdecydowanych-czyli-ostateczne-starcie-na-obietnice.html -- ALMOST EIGHT YEARS IN OPPOSITION, AND AT THE CAMPAIGN FINALE, A MONTH BEFORE THE ELECTIONS, THEY ARE THROWING OUT 100 SLOGANS, RHETORIC AT THE LEVEL OF A HIGH SCHOOL PREP COURSE - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “Almost eight years in opposition. Large sums from the budget. A vast business and media backing. Grants from German foundations. And at the campaign finale, a month before the elections, they are throwing out 100 slogans, rhetoric at the level of a high school prep course. Never mind whether the slogans are smart or stupid. In a large EU country, with a developing economy, facing pressing security challenges, such a level of general babble is simply unworthy.” -- WRITING THIS TOOK, I ESTIMATE, NO MORE THAN ONE DAY'S WORK. ONE DAY - FOR EIGHT YEARS IN OPPOSITION! - KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: “The opposition has wasted eight years and today they are presenting something so unserious that it's simply embarrassing. Shame on us too, because the quality of the opposition is also the quality of the state. We are spending hundreds of billions on armaments, and they lightly state that they will present a military modernization program within 100 days. Within 100 days! Are they mocking us or genuinely asking? Besides, they'll 'look into' something, raise something, wish for better education and excellent healthcare. Or perhaps not. Writing this took, I estimate, no more than one day's work. One day - for eight years in opposition! They called it 'concrete proposals' at their convention. But I checked the website dedicated to the 'program,' and there these 'concrete proposals' turn into... 'postulates.'” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/662054-wielka-sciema-po-konkrety-okazuja-sie-postulatami -- A PIS DEFEAT IN THE ELECTIONS IN POLAND WOULD ALLOW EUROPE TO BREATHE A SIGH OF RELIEF, SIMILAR TO MACRON'S VICTORY AGAINST LE PEN, BUT FRANKLY, I DON'T THINK IT WILL BE DECIDED IN THESE PARTICULAR ELECTIONS - LESZEK JAŻDŻEWSKI IN A CONVERSATION WITH AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK IN OKO.PRESS: “A PiS defeat in the elections in Poland would allow Europe to breathe a sigh of relief, similar to Macron's victory against Le Pen in the previous French elections. It would be a signal to populists that they haven't found the most effective recipe for electoral success. I would really like that to happen. But frankly, I don't think it will be decided in these particular elections.” -- THERE IS NO LIBERAL PARTY IN POLAND. CALLING CIVIC PLATFORM LIBERAL WITH ROMAN GIERTYCH AND MICHAŁ KOŁODZIEJCZAK ON ITS LISTS IS A MISUNDERSTANDING - JAŻDŻEWSKI CONTINUES WITH SZCZĘŚNIAK IN OKO: “I think Polish liberals and liberal women could fit into a small club, or even one small room. More seriously, today it's not a fashionable term, nor an identity. There is no liberal party in Poland. Calling Civic Platform liberal with Roman Giertych and Michał Kołodziejczak on its lists is a misunderstanding. The Freedom Games are created by an independent environment that emerged around the magazine Liberté! The organizing group is small. However, the environment participating in the Freedom Games is much broader. It is, in a sense, a generational movement, people involved in public affairs – most often not as politicians, although there are politicians of various generations.” -- A DEMOCRATIC PROPOSAL WOULD HAVE TO STOP PRETENDING THAT THERE IS NO PROBLEM IN POLISH MAINSTREAM POLITICS, AND STOP PRETENDING THAT THE SAME FACES HAVEN'T BEEN PART OF IT FOR THIRTY YEARS - JAŻDŻEWSKI CONTINUES WITH SZCZĘŚNIAK: “Ultimately, it serves populists. Unfortunately, they drag us down and win. There’s no point in competing with them on this style of politics. A democratic proposal would have to stop pretending that there is no problem in Polish mainstream politics, and stop pretending that the same faces haven't been part of it for thirty years. It should accept this head-on and speak without sugarcoating. Based on values, it should present constructive proposals. This element is currently underestimated by mainstream opposition parties.” -- SUCH A DIVIDED POLITICAL SCENE WOULD COLLECTIVELY GIVE THE OPPOSITION SLIGHTLY OVER 50% OF THE VOTES, LEAVING THE REST FOR PIS AND CONFEDERATION - CLAIMS JAŻDŻEWSKI: “We are unable to divide the opposition in a meaningful way. That is, to have one party that would be conservative-provincial and would fight PiS for the small-town or rural voter. And another party, progressive-liberal, which would be unambiguous on worldview issues, would not have problems with women's rights regarding abortion or same-sex marriage. Such a divided political scene would collectively give the opposition slightly over 50% of the votes, leaving the rest for PiS and Confederation.” -- I DON'T UNDERSTAND WHY THE PLATFORM AND THE OPPOSITION MORE BROADLY COMPLETELY IGNORE THE LIBERAL FUEL THAT ALMOST GAVE TRZASKOWSKI VICTORY IN 2020 - JAŻDŻEWSKI FURTHER STATES IN OKO: “Regardless of how one assesses Petru's leadership in Nowoczesna, he shows that Confederation's proposals simply don't add up. I don't understand why the Platform and the opposition more broadly completely ignore the liberal fuel that almost gave Rafał Trzaskowski victory in the 2020 presidential elections. I don't understand how one could forget such a broad, open message. Abandoning it is a major political mistake that could cost the opposition the upcoming elections.” https://oko.press/igrzyska-wolnosci-rozmowa -- THE CASE OF ROMAN GIERTYCH IS A LESSON FOR ALL CONSERVATIVES WHO WOULD LIKE TO BE ACCEPTED INTO LIBERAL-LEFT CIRCLES - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “It turned out that someone who has not renounced the belief in the value of human life is like a leper. And the tolerance of the liberal-left camp ends where someone takes their conscience and Church doctrine seriously. This is certainly an important lesson for all conservatives criticizing PiS. For the liberal camp, they will always be outsiders. This is also a lesson for the conservative electorate, but one critical of PiS's actions, which is an alien body today, just like lawyer Giertych.” https://www.rp.pl/plus-minus/art39072351-michal-szuldrzynski-roman-giertych-jest-cialem-obcym-salon-nigdy-go-nie-przyjmie -- LET'S READ AND LISTEN WITH UNDERSTANDING, BECAUSE A GREAT DECEPTION IS BEING PREPARED. THEY INTEND TO ABANDON THIS BORDER AND LET IN MILLIONS OF MIGRANTS - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “Or perhaps Poland has tens of billions of dollars to pay half of Africa and Asia to block migration? Has anyone succeeded with such a trick in the long run? Either this is stupidity, or – more likely – a great deception. Let's read what they write in the media arms of the Third Polish Republic camp. The hate against border defenders continues. The film slander against the border guard and soldiers is praised. Let's read and listen with understanding, because they are preparing a great deception. They intend to abandon this border and let in millions of migrants.” -- IF THE UNION IS TO PROVIDE FUNDING, WHICH IS NOT VERY CLEAR WHY, THEN IT SHOULD ALSO TAKE CONTROL OF THE BORDER. THAT'S HOW IT WORKS. AND HOW HAVE MR. TUSK'S GERMAN, FRENCH, AND ITALIAN COLLEAGUES MANAGED WITH DEFENSE SO FAR? - KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: “If the Union is to provide funding, which is not very clear why, then it should also take control of the border. That's how it works. And how have Mr. Tusk's German, French, and Italian colleagues managed with defense so far? Haven't they brought millions into their countries? And aren't they still doing so? Even assuming they would change – they can't. They should learn from us and the Hungarians!” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/661945-oni-te-granice-zamierzaja-poddac-i-wpuscic-miliony-migrantow -- IT WOULD BE AN INTERESTING RESEARCH TOPIC: THE PERCEPTION OF POLES BY GERMAN RULING CIRCLES, THAT IT IS ENOUGH TO PIN WHITE-RED HEARTS ON THEIR REPRESENTATIVES AND THE NATION WILL RECOGNIZE THEM AS PATRIOTS - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “It would be an interesting research topic: the perception of Poles by German ruling circles. There must be some pathology there. Only this can explain the belief that it is enough to pin white-red hearts on their representatives and the nation will recognize them as patriots. After years of organizing sanctions against Poland, after all those films and conferences where they spread slander against Poland, past and present.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/661894-tusk-z-bialo-czerwonego-serca-zrobil-sobie-podloge -- THE ANTI-PATRIOTIC HATE FROM FANS OF ADRIAN ZANDEBERG EMPLOYED IN LIBERAL MEDIA HAS SLOWED THE FLOW OF LEFT-WING VOTERS TO THE CIVIC COALITION - CEZARY MICHALSKI IN INTERIA: “They would bring in hundreds of thousands more if it weren't for the blow of a vibrating fist aimed by Tusk at the so-called immigration policy of Law and Justice. Tusk, incidentally, also wounded his own fist in the process. He provoked anti-patriotic hate from fans of Adrian Zandberg employed in liberal media, which slowed the flow of left-wing voters to the Civic Coalition. Ultimately, however, Kaczyński had to stop the practice carried out by his 'righteous' colleagues in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-opowiesc-o-dwoch-bankach,nId,7013232 -- IT IS ENOUGH FOR LAW AND JUSTICE TO WIN HIGH ENOUGH FOR IT TO BE CLEAR THAT THIS IS THE UNDISPUTED VERDICT OF THE NATION. AND ALSO A POLITICAL VERDICT ON TUSK'S POLITICAL LEGACY - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “Certainly, this is also a game for the future, for the time after the electoral defeat on October 15th. I think without a specific scenario yet, but it will certainly not be actions beneficial to Poland. There may be an attempt to destabilize the internal situation using some parody of Maidan, and external pressure will increase, for which the opposition's words will be a convenient argument, or rather a cudgel, for the directors. All of this is very dangerous, perilous. But it can be prevented, and in a simple way. It is enough for Law and Justice to win high enough for it to be clear that this is the undisputed verdict of the nation. And also a political verdict on Tusk's political legacy.” -- NOT ONLY A PIS VICTORY (IN THE SENSE OF A MAJORITY) IS POSSIBLE, BUT ALSO A DECISIVE VICTORY - KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: “The fate of this campaign will be decided until the end; nothing has been resolved yet. But in my opinion, not only a PiS victory (in the sense of an independent majority) is possible, but also a decisive victory, even a knockout. The last few weeks seem to point in this direction.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/662035-trzaskowski-wygral-co-powie-tusk-jesli-15x-znow-przegra -- A FAST-TRACK COURT FOR SWISS FRANC LOAN HOLDERS, REFORM OF THE SUPREME COURT, MERGER OF THE BAR AND ADVOCATES' SELF-GOVERNMENTS - THESE ARE SOME OF THE PROPOSALS FROM THE PIS PROGRAM PUBLISHED ON SATURDAY - RZ: “The program also includes a promise to launch a fast-track court for Swiss franc loan holders. 'We will simplify court proceedings in franc loan cases. We will shift the burden of proof from citizens to banks. The bank will have to prove that it did not deceive its clients by offering them a loan in a foreign currency,' PiS announces.” https://www.rp.pl/prawo-dla-ciebie/art39083951-pis-sklada-obietnice-frankowiczom-zmiany-czekaja-tez-sedziow-i-innych-prawnikow -- PO POLITICIANS AND MEDIA ARE MANIPULATING THE NARRATIVE ABOUT THE "LARGE NUMBER OF RESIDENCE PERMITS" ISSUED TO FOREIGNERS IN 2022 - MAŁGORZATA TOMCZAK IN OKO.PRESS: “Civic Platform politicians and media are manipulating the narrative about the 'large number of residence permits' issued to foreigners in 2022 – we show that Poland has for years been among the leading countries issuing such permits. This was also the case during PO's rule, but the vast majority of these permits were and are for Ukrainians and Belarusians.” https://oko.press/afera-wizowa-informacje-i-manipulacje-o-masowym-naplywie-migrantow-sprawdzamy-fakty-i-liczby -- IF WE LOSE CREDIBILITY AS NATO, AS A CIVILIZATION… CHINA IS WATCHING, SO THIS IS A BIG GAME - STATEMENTS FROM THE CHIEF OF THE GENERAL STAFF IN THE GUARDIAN: “Behavior reminiscent of gangster threats but with the use of nuclear weapons from Vladimir Putin requires NATO to adopt a much more aggressive response” - Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Army, General Rajmund Andrzejczak. Gen. Andrzejczak also warned that if Ukraine loses the war and Belarus moves even closer to Russia, it will not be enough for Poland to spend 5% of its GDP on defense and maintain a standing army of 300,000 soldiers. “If we lose credibility as NATO, as a civilization… China is watching, so this is a big game,” he said. https://twitter.com/okok_boomer/status/1700818900261228702?s=20 -- BIRTHDAYS: Adam Strzembosz, Teresa Bochwic, Swiatlana Ciechanouska, Aleksandra Rybińska.

Łukasz Mężyk