state of play: 09/08/2023

STATE OF PLAY: Dąbrowska: Civic Coalition supporters should focus on convincing undecided voters, not chasing 'symetrists' who advise them how to do it; Kurski: Opposition leaders, through their reprehensible irresponsibility, have made the playing field e

Łukasz Mężyk

-- “SOMETIMES THEY HAVE INTERESTING IDEAS”. GRABIEC DOES NOT RULE OUT A MINORITY GOVERNMENT WITH KONFEDERACJA, PIS IS READING KO'S PROGRAM - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/09/08/ *** BLAST FROM THE PAST: -- A YEAR AGO, KATARZYNA SKRZYDŁOWSKA KALUKIN IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: -- INSTEAD OF UTILIZING TRZASKOWSKI'S POTENTIAL, TUSK FLEXES HIS WARRIOR MUSCLES: “Campus is an anomaly. When PiS focused on young people, it didn't achieve even a fraction of this scale and effect. But a year before the elections, the party is struggling with internal rivalries. Instead of utilizing the potential and popularity of Rafał Trzaskowski, Donald Tusk is flexing his warrior muscles and, as PO politicians quietly say, trying to weaken the flagship event of the Mayor of Warsaw. Campus should theoretically play for the entire PO, but it has become a place for the covert struggle between the warrior leader and his capable deputy.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2022/09/06/skrzydlowska-kalukin-czy-platforma-stanie-sie-campusowa/ *** -- A SINGLE LIST OF DEMOCRATS WAS NOT FORMED. HAD IT BEEN, IT WOULD BE LEADING THE POLLS TODAY - JAROSŁAW KURSKI IN GW: “A single list of democrats was not formed. Had it been formed, it would be leading the polls today.” -- OPPOSITION LEADERS, THROUGH THEIR REPREHENSIBLE IRRESPONSIBILITY, HAVE MADE IT EVEN MORE TILTED - KURSKI CONTINUES: “The game is already being played on a tilted field, and the opposition leaders, through their reprehensible irresponsibility, have made it even more tilted. Now we will tremble to see if Lewica and Trzecia Droga will cross their respective thresholds of five and eight percent. Without this, there is no victory. Well, there's no use groaning. It is what it is. The most important thing is to run without losing breath in the final stretch, play as a team, and not lose faith in victory.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,82983,30167218,jaroslaw-kurski-wygrywa-ten-tylko-kto-wierzy-w-zwyciestwo.html -- OPPOSITION, THE ALARM IS SOUNDING. PIS IS NOT IDLING. WAKE UP! LET US ALL WAKE UP - ANDRZEJ RYCHARD IN GW: “After the recent polls, a journalist acquaintance asked me: where is the coalition's election campaign? Exactly, where? The opposition doesn't seem total. Rather, minimal.” -- AND PIS KNEW AND KNOWS HOW TO SHOW HOW INDIVIDUAL SUCCESS DEPENDS PRECISELY ON POLITICS, THEIR POLITICS. THERE IS, THEREFORE, COHERENCE OF MESSAGE AND A COMBINATION OF MACRO AND MICRO DIMENSIONS - RYCHARD CONTINUES IN GW: “And PiS knew and knows how to show how individual success depends precisely on politics, their politics. There is, therefore, coherence of message and a combination of macro and micro dimensions. The macro is the leader, frightening with real and imagined security threats, and at the grassroots level, there is real groundwork on 'local shelves' and YouTube. This can work. In addition, the context: of course, there is inflation, there are scandals. But the scandals are far away, and inflation is somehow less noticeable at a point level through various benefits. And probably, in the social consciousness of a significant portion of people, the state, though perhaps made of cardboard, is still functioning. And various fears have not materialized (e.g., lack of coal in winter). All of this together somehow holds the government's electorate.” -- THE EXPECTED SUCCESS OF THE OCTOBER 1ST MARCH MAY NOT MATERIALIZE - RYCHARD CONTINUES: “Specifically: the expected success of the October 1st march may not materialize. Because the squandering of the previous march's success could be demotivating. And then the democratic opposition may lose the elections. And it may not always be a small loss. It could be crushing.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30165204,opozycjo-larum-graja-pis-nie-proznuje-obudzcie-sie-obudzmy.html -- CIVIC COALITION SUPPORTERS SHOULD FOCUS ON CONVINCING UNDECIDED VOTERS, NOT CHASING 'SYMETRISTS' WHO ADVISE THEM HOW TO DO IT - ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA IN RZ: “It is a rather large group of 'symetrists.' And it is not the publications and programs of Sroczyński or Meller that have made them so numerous. There are many serious reasons for indecision. These include the lack of an offer that appeals to a specific group – for example, the youngest voters, the memory of the mistakes of today's opposition from when it was in power, the lack of a cohesive vision for Poland after the elections, and the image of opposition parties resembling a broken mirror. Monitoring dissent and silencing those who urge drawing conclusions from one's own mistakes closes the path for undecided voters to decide to vote for the opposition. They may not vote for PiS, but they will stay home on October 15th. And who then will deserve the title of an accomplice of Law and Justice?” https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art39071941-zuzanna-dabrowska-niezdecydowani-wyborcy-to-wlasnie-symetrysci -- WILL KONFEDERACJA PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN THE SEQUEL TO "NIGHT CHANGE"? - RAFAŁ WOŚ IN INTERIA: “Will Sławomir Mentzen and Krzysztof Bosak help the opposition overthrow the PiS government, just as Waldemar Pawlak once helped UD and Lech Wałęsa overthrow Jan Olszewski's government? (...) It will have little to do with the spirit of democracy, of course, but... who cares? The level of sincere and militant anti-PiS sentiment among the opposition leaders is enormous, and the bile of 'Silni Razem' has long spilled beyond the circle of internet haters, infecting even those who consider themselves moderate opposition supporters. For them, digging dirt on PiS and depriving them of power is the alpha and omega. The beginning and the end. I think nine out of ten anti-PiS titans will embrace such a plan wholeheartedly and one hundred percent. The only question is about Konfederacja? Mentzen's and Bosak's party has achieved a lot in recent months. And even if the temporarily recorded 15% was a balloon, they should still maintain their double-digit support (closer to ten). And it will be the greatest success in the history of the Polish national-liberal movement.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-czy-konfederacja-zagra-glowna-role-w-sequelu-nocnej-zmiany,nId,7011089 -- PIS'S EDUCATION VOUCHER IS A GOOD IDEA, BUT DIFFICULT TO IMPLEMENT - JOANNA ĆWIEK IN RZ: “I am far from criticizing this idea. On the contrary, I believe it is one of the education minister's best initiatives. Providing schools with money for trips is an opportunity for children to travel and see the country who cannot count on their parents taking them to such places. It also presents an opportunity for families who cannot afford an expense of PLN 570 (which is the cost of, for example, a two-day trip from Warsaw to Toruń). (...) Nevertheless, implementing this promise will not be easy at all. Teachers must accompany every trip. Therefore, gaps will appear in the lesson schedules.” https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art39073171-joanna-cwiek-bon-edukacyjny-pis-to-dobry-pomysl-ale-trudny-do-realizacji -- BIRTHDAYS: Zofia Wojtkowska, Roch Kowalski, Jerzy Szmit, Ewa Żmuda-Trzebiatowska.

Łukasz Mężyk