state of play: 09/06/2023
POLITICAL STATE OF PLAY: Jażdżewski: Giertych on PO's lists is worse than a crime, it's a mistake; Karnowski: Is PO considering a technocratic government led by Siemoniak with Konfederacja? Wielowieyska on Wipler, Allegro, InPost, and TikTok's algorithm; N
-- NBP: VERBAL INTERVENTIONS STRENGTHENED THE ZŁOTY:
https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/09/14/werbalne-interwencje-poskutkowaly-stabilizacja-kursu-zlotego/
-- PIS WITH A PROJECT SUPPORTING LOCAL PRODUCTS IN SUPERMARKETS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/09/06/
-- GERTYCH ON PO'S LISTS. IT'S WORSE THAN A CRIME. IT'S A MISTAKE - LESZEK JAŻDŻEWSKI IN LIBERTE: “The most radical supporters of Platforma will, of course, swallow another ally in the fight against PiS – even if Giertych propagates conspiracy theories on his social media channels about Poland's alleged intention to invade western Ukraine – narratives fully consistent with the line set by Kremlin propaganda. However, Giertych has no electoral base of his own, not even in a theoretical form like Tomasz Kołodziejczak, nor is he any kind of 'booster' for KO's support beyond what Donald Tusk already offers. It is impossible to find any rational justification for such a cardinal mistake by KO. Giertych has certainly made headlines in the media, and it can be expected that he will do everything to remind people of himself. However, it is hard to see this as a benefit for KO – rather, a very serious risk of losing support”.
-- FOR A FEW DAYS OF MEDIA NEWS, PLATFORMA MAKES TWO STRATEGIC MISTAKES - JAŻDŻEWSKI CONTINUES: “For a few days of media news, Platforma makes two strategic mistakes. Firstly, it cancels the efforts undertaken to build support among the supporters of the thousands-strong women's protests. After months of declarations of strong support for abortion up to 12 weeks, it turns out that this is a conditional matter. The lawyer's call for his wife and daughter to testify to his progressiveness was the best proof of how little he has to offer in this matter himself. Secondly, KO deprives itself – and everyone who overlooks Giertych – of credibility in the ideological fight against Konfederacja”.
https://liberte.pl/prezent-tuska/
-- FROM MY INFORMATION, UNOFFICIALLY KONFEDERACJA IS NOT SAYING 'NO'. ALSO BECAUSE IN THIS PLAN, SIEMONIAK WOULD BE THE PRIME MINISTER - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “This is not a lineup for a convincing victory, these are not lists for even reasonably effective governance. That is why the game is now about implementing the opposition's secret 'plan B': an attempt to build a temporary 'everyone against PiS' majority. 'Everyone' meaning Konfederacja as well. A government formed with their support would attempt to pacify the only mass medium independent of the Third Polish Republic, i.e., TVP, and to implement rapid changes in economic institutions. The next step would be quick elections. From my information, Konfederacja is unofficially not saying 'no'. Also because in this plan, Tomasz Siemoniak, the head of the Ministry of National Defence under Tusk's government, currently a second-tier PO politician, would be the prime minister. Such a nomination would emphasize the technocratic nature of the cabinet”.
https://wpolityce.pl/media/661381-ujawniamy-oto-tajny-plan-b-opozycji
-- THE OPPOSITION IS AFTER THE FIRST COUNT - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “Law and Justice has decisively won the first weeks of the campaign. The opposition is in a trap, it doesn't know what to do. They expected the government to boast about its achievements, focus on major investments, and above all, debate on fields of their choosing (women, healthcare, abortion, climate, education, relations with the EU), and they invested in that. PiS wisely did not take up this game on someone else's terms. And it should stick to that. A good campaign cannot be conducted 'by feel', on the emotions of one's own bubble, and by the temptation to point out one's own successes. It must be based on well-thought-out, clear, consistent assumptions. Above all, it must have a strong narrative”.
-- BUT PIS IS ALSO MAKING MISTAKES. NO GOVERNMENT WILL WIN A DEBATE ON HEALTHCARE - IN ANY FORM - JACEK KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: “Today, PiS raised the issue of meals in hospitals. This is also an important matter, necessary to address, but campaign-wise, it is more than risky. It means shifting the campaign to the healthcare field, a field where – under current civilizational conditions, with aging societies and constantly rising healthcare costs – no government has ever gained anything during a campaign, anywhere. This is a topic on which ONLY the opposition can gain. Addressing specific issues within this thematic area will not help, it will only harm. This is an action that strengthens the opposition”.
https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/661267-opozycja-jest-po-pierwszym-liczeniu-ale-i-pis-robi-bledy
-- GAZETA WYBORCZA SIGNALS AN ATTACK ON THE LEFT. ARE WE FACING A REPEAT OF 2015? - DOROTA ŁOSIEWICZ ON WPOLITYCE.PL: “And it has begun. It was to be expected. Forty days before the elections, the campaign 'a vote cast for Lewica is a wasted vote' has started. For now, 'Gazeta Wyborcza' has initiated it, but PO politicians will likely follow. Is the scenario of 2015 repeating itself, when Donald Tusk convinced Poles that it was not worth voting for the then SLD?”
https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/661386-gw-daje-sygnal-do-ataku-na-lewice-bedzie-powtorka-z-2015
-- THE ARTICLE BY ARKADIUSZ GRUSZCZYŃSKI IN GW, WHICH ŁOSIEWICZ WRITES ABOUT ABOVE: “Consternation in the Lewica campaign headquarters: independent research indicates they won't enter the Sejm. What is a teenager doing today who, after the Constitutional Tribunal's abortion ruling, organized the first protest in her town for women's rights after World War II? Nothing. Thanks to left-wing female politicians”.
https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,30152836,w-sztabie-lewicy-konsternacja-z-niezaleznych-badan-wynika.html
-- IF THE OPPOSITION LOSES THE ELECTION, THE RESPONSIBILITY WILL FALL ON ITS LEADERS. AND ONLY ON THEM - MAREK MIGALSKI IN RZ: “Without, therefore, deciding who is responsible for the current situation, it must be noted that if Kaczynski wins power for the third time, it will not be because the majority of citizens of our country want it (as is the case with Orbán), but because his political opponents have shown carelessness and have not taken steps that would guarantee PiS's defeat. And although the campaign is only entering its decisive phase and anything is possible (which is worth emphasizing once again), it is worth remembering that if the United Right can continue its rule, a significant part of the responsibility for this will fall on the leaders of the opposition parties. And only on them”.
https://www.rp.pl/publicystyka/art39060511-marek-migalski-odpowiedzialnosc-za-przegrane-wybory-spadnie-na-liderow-opozycji
-- EQUATING HOLLAND WITH THE CREATORS OF HITLERIAN PROPAGANDA SIMPLY STIRS DISGUST. SIMILARLY, THE USE OF THE WORD "SZMALCOWNIK" BY HOŁDYS TOWARDS MELLER WAS EXTREMELY INAPPROPRIATE - JAROSŁAW KUISZ IN INTERIA: “Finally, the last matter: equating Agnieszka Holland with the creators of Nazi propaganda simply stirs disgust. Similarly, the use of the word 'szmalcownik' by Zbigniew Hołdys towards Marcin Meller was extremely inappropriate. Too much tragedy has happened on the lands of the former Second Polish Republic to throw such words around lightly. Unless they are completely drained of their former meaning. That World War II, even for right-wing and far-right politicians, despite public assurances, serves only as a tool. It is thought-provoking that on the Minister of Justice's Twitter, alongside a sharp statement about the Polish director, you will find a message about a pleasant walk with a dog and finding a large mushroom”.
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-dlaczego-zbigniew-ziobro-atakuje-agnieszke-holland,nId,7006824
-- OKO.PRESS AND FRONT STORY ON TOMASZ PORĘBA'S REAL ESTATE TRANSACTIONS: “We have established that in the last six years alone, the Poręba couple bought and sold at least three luxury apartments in Korčula worth at least PLN 3.3 million. Poręba failed to disclose at least one of the Croatian apartments in his asset declaration, and significantly underestimated the value of another. We discovered that Poręba's company purchased the largest of the luxury apartments thanks to a loan granted to it by the Poręba couple. They invested over 3 million Croatian kuna (almost PLN 2 million) in this way”.
-- PORĘBA'S STATEMENT APPEARS IN THE ARTICLE: “I repeat to you, everything I do is painfully transparent. And a small hint, distinguished investigators: there is no obligation to declare properties acquired based on preliminary contracts in asset declarations until they become final, and this often takes time, as buildings are built in stages, sometimes for years. Did you know this? I doubt it, yet you insinuate and slander. I await the publication with sincere excitement”.
https://oko.press/luksusowe-apartamenty-posla-poreby
-- INSTEAD OF A COMMISSION INVESTIGATING RUSSIAN INFLUENCE, SHOULDN'T THERE BE A COMMISSION INVESTIGATING CHINESE INFLUENCE ON THE ELECTION OUTCOME IN POLAND? - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “Instead of a commission investigating Russian influence, shouldn't there be a commission investigating Chinese influence on the election outcome in Poland? 'Is it a coincidence that people associated with Wipler, who wants to be a Konfederacja MP, lobbied for TikTok, and the little-known Mentzen has gained such rapid reach on TikTok?'”
-- TIKTOK'S ALGORITHM IS VERY FAVORABLE TO MENTZEN - WIELOWIEYSKA CONTINUES IN GW: “One of my interlocutors presents the following sequence of events: Konfederacja submits numerous interpellations in defense of Chinese companies, including TikTok; Wipler takes a keen interest in the threat of Chinese players being excluded from the market; his associate discusses a cybersecurity bill with MPs; and Wipler's protégé and one of Konfederacja's leaders, Sławomir Mentzen, a relatively unknown individual, suddenly gains incredible reach precisely on TikTok. - Of course, if Menzten didn't appeal to viewers, he wouldn't have succeeded. But this TikTok algorithm was very favorable to him. But perhaps it's a coincidence”.
-- IT IS SYMPTOMATIC THAT WIPLER CONDEMNS REGULATIONS BENEFITING ALLEGRO'S COMPETITORS - WIELOWIEYSKA CONTINUES IN GW: “Wipler also spoke on Wnet about the e-commerce issue. The question is, where does his interest in online trade come from? Bielan claimed that Allegro is the client of the lobbyists, Allegro denies this. But it is symptomatic that Wipler condemns regulations that benefit Allegro's competitors”.
-- WIELOWIEYSKA ON THE INPOST AND WIPLER CASE: “In the ministry, I officially received Rafał Brzoska and Przemysław Wipler. The market was concerned about the ruling of the provincial administrative court regarding parcel lockers and similar objects, which indicated that setting them up would require meeting requirements on par with a building permit. This is absurd. We recognized this problem in the construction supervision and ministry and had already addressed it. When Rafał Brzoska appeared at the ministry, work on the regulations was ongoing, and the visit of both gentlemen had no impact on it. And I informed them of this. After the meeting, a formal lobbying request was submitted, which is attached to parliamentary print no. 121 of 2019 – explains the deputy minister. – Do you mean to say that Wipler convinced the owner of InPost that he, Wipler, secured favorable regulations from the government, cashed in on his efforts, and in reality, the ministry prepared them on its own?”
https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,30150934,jest-szara-eminencja-konfederacji-ale-ma-grupe-parlamentarzystow.html
-- BIRTHDAYS: Elżbieta Polak, Marek Bosak.
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