state of play: 09/04/2023

STATE OF PLAY: Tusk's Boxing Rhetoric Falls Short of 10 Million Votes, Lewica Intensifies Criticism of Giertych and Sees Strongest Growth in WP Poll

Łukasz Mężyk

-- PIS PRESENTS THE FIRST POINT OF ITS PROGRAM - MODERNIZATION OF LARGE-PANEL HOUSING ESTATES - AS PM MORAWIECKI SAYS IN A SPOT: "Our program must mean a breakthrough for the residents of these estates. Revitalization of thousands of buildings, new thermal insulation, modern elevators, new parks and recreation areas for families."
https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/09/04/tylko-nasz-rzad-zrealizuje-tak-ambitny-projekt-morawiecki-o-pierwszym-punkcie-nowego-programu-pis/

-- ZANDBERG WILL NOT ENTER GOVERNMENT WITH GIERTYCH, BIEDROŃ BELIEVES GIERTYCH SHOULD BE ISOLATED, PETRU WILL JOIN POLSKA 2050 - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/09/04

-- FROM THE ANNOUNCED 10 MILLION VOTES, TUSK CURRENTLY HAS JUST UNDER 6 - PIOTR PACEWICZ IN OKO.PRESS: "The metaphor of politics as boxing is risky. Because elections are not about defeating an opponent, but about convincing viewers. And from the announced 10 million votes, Tusk currently has just under 6. The missing remainder must be convinced by the politicians of Lewica and Trzecia Droga, partners in governing."

-- 10 MILLION VOTES WOULD ACTUALLY TAKE POWER AWAY FROM PIS, BUT ONLY THE ENTIRE OPPOSITION COULD ACHIEVE SUCH A RESULT. PROVIDED THEY GAIN AT LEAST ANOTHER 700 THOUSAND, OR MORE SAFELY A MILLION - PACEWICZ FURTHER IN OKO: "10 million votes would indeed take power away from PiS, but only the entire opposition could achieve such a result. Provided they gain at least another 700,000, or more safely a million. 10 million voters for KO is a political pipe dream. The pro-democratic opposition, across four parties, had that many voters in its best year, 2021. Perhaps this energy could have been better maintained and organized, but party logic prevailed, KO devoured the electorate of Polska 2050, Lewica cannot get on its feet, and then there's the complication of a strong Konfederacja."

-- SUCH POLITICAL DETERMINATION MUST BE FASCINATING, EVEN IF AFTER THE FIRST INHALE, EXHALATION IS BLOCKED BY A VALUE SHOCK. AND ONE GETS ANNOYED AND DOESN'T KNOW WHAT TO DO WITH THAT KOŁODZIEJCZAK - PACEWICZ FURTHER: "Such political determination must be fascinating, even if after the first inhale, exhalation is blocked by a value shock. And one gets annoyed and doesn't know what to do with that Kołodziejczak. Tusk disregards such dilemmas and sends a mobilizing signal for the last 60 days to the elections. There is no more time for deliberation, because the polls – which we all know, and Tusk has his own additional ones – do not place democracy as the favorite. And Poland risks a coalition of the bad right with an even worse right (guess which is bad, and which is worse)."

-- FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF PLATFORMA (KO), IT IS IMPORTANT WHETHER GIERTYCH WILL CONVINCE VOTERS, WHETHER HE WILL ATTRACT NEW ONES, AND AT THE SAME TIME WHETHER HE WILL NOT DISCOURAGE OLD ONES, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE PO/KO ELECTORATE IS ALMOST AS PROGRESSIVE AS LEWICA'S. THE SAME APPLIES TO KOŁODZIEJCZAK - WRITES PIOTR PACEWICZ: "Tusk's persuasive power and the energy radiating from him make it easy to fall for the boxing narrative, especially if one dislikes PiS. But a moment's reflection is enough to realize that the metaphor is questionable. A boxing match is decided in the ring, the audience can cheer or boo, but its role is fundamentally limited. Elections are more like a figure skating competition, where after the skaters' performance, the judges pull out scorecards, except that there are 30 million potential judges, of whom probably two-thirds will come to the polls to show how they rate the political performances. It's not about defeating an opponent, but about convincing viewers. (...) From the perspective of Platforma (KO), it is important whether Giertych will convince voters, whether he will attract new ones, and at the same time whether he will not discourage old ones, especially since the PO/KO electorate is almost as progressive as Lewica's. The same applies to Kołodziejczak. Of course, in politics, simple things also matter – having initiative, setting topics in the media, showing determination, highlighting strength and mental advantage over rivals. But it all comes down to convincing millions of people to go to the polls and decide that it is worth voting for you."

-- IF TUSK TRULY WANTS TO BE PRIME MINISTER OF A COALITION GOVERNMENT FOR THE THIRD TIME, HE MUST WIN AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE AGAINST PIS, BUT HE MUST ALSO (SLIGHTLY) LOSE TO RIVALS FROM THE PRO-DEMOCRATIC OPPOSITION - PACEWICZ FURTHER IN OKO.PRESS: "One can, and indeed should, be outraged that this is largely the result of an almost obsessive campaign by PiS propaganda, but one does not argue with numbers. If Tusk truly wants to be prime minister of a coalition government for the third time, he must win as much as possible against PiS, but he must also (slightly) lose to rivals from the pro-democratic opposition. Paradoxically, Tusk's hope is a good result for Lewica and Trzecia Droga, even if Hołownia questions the value of his fight to the death with PiS, claiming it's a war of grandfathers' generations and that fathers must enter the political scene."
https://oko.press/falszywa-metafora-tuska-i-co-z-nia-zrobimy

-- UNITED SURVEYS FOR WP SHOWS AN INCREASE IN PIS VOTES BUT THE LARGEST FOR LEWICA AND THE BIGGEST DROP FOR KO: "If the elections were held last Sunday, Law and Justice would achieve the best result - according to the United Surveys poll for WP. 35.3% of respondents want to vote for the ruling party. This is an increase of 0.8 percentage points compared to the survey from mid-August. Civic Platform would achieve the second result, with 27.5% wanting to vote for it. This is 3.7 percentage points less compared to the previous poll and the biggest drop among all parties. The far-right Konfederacja returned to the podium, with 10.6% of respondents wanting to vote for it. This is an increase of 2.8 percentage points. Trzecia Droga (10.2%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points) and Lewica (9.4%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points) would also enter the Sejm. 7% of respondents do not know who they want to vote for."
https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/pis-zwieksza-przewage-zle-wiadomosci-dla-tuska-i-opozycji-6937593202809440a

-- TUSK'S SARCASTIC, TOXIC REMARKS, DEVELOPED BY ADVERTISING GURUS AND DILIGENTLY MEMORIZED, DO NOT BREAK THROUGH WALLS - JACEK KARNOWSKI: "Above all, Tusk's sarcastic, toxic remarks, developed by advertising gurus and diligently memorized, do not break through walls. They receive applause at rallies and likes on Twitter, but nothing more. They do not reach people, they are not taken seriously. Why? Tusk certainly started his usual moral panic campaign too early. He has said everything, accused everyone of everything - even of 'serial' killing women. Poles paused for a moment, listened, but then thought: 'this is not serious, this is just typical Tusk hate'."

-- IT IS ALREADY KNOWN THAT THIS IS A CAMPAIGN ABOUT SERIOUS, MOST IMPORTANT MATTERS. ABOUT SECURITY AND THE ECONOMY. ABOUT THE FUTURE OF POLAND AND POLES. ON THIS FRONT, TUSK NEVER HAD GREATER CHANCES - KARNOWSKI FURTHER: "Law and Justice has won the battle for the character of this campaign. And it is already known that it is a campaign about serious, most important matters. About security and the economy. About the future of Poland and Poles. On this front, Tusk never had greater chances. His only hope is emotions, shouts, fights over secondary issues. It is already evident today that old tricks simply 'don't work' in this campaign. And why don't they work? Well, because Law and Justice has chosen its own grounds for dispute. It chose them well (immigration, the wall, national assets, retirement age), and did not allow itself to be pushed off them. Every opposition attack in this area increases the weight of these topics. And these are topics where deep credibility lies with the ruling camp. It cannot be broken by a single tweet, video, or even convention."

-- THESE ARE TRICKS THAT DO NOT SO MUCH ATTRACT AS THEY CAUSE SUBCONSCIOUS UNEASE. WHO ARE THESE PEOPLE? IS THIS A HEALTHCARE WORKERS' STRIKE? - KARNOWSKI STILL WRITES: "The opposition has bad advisors. They came up with white shirts and empty hearts. But such 'uniforms', branding, have not brought success to anyone in any country in our region, although the Hungarian opposition, among others, has tried it. These are tricks that do not so much attract as they cause subconscious unease. Who are these people? Is this a healthcare workers' strike? The impression of exoticism, which already strongly accompanies our opposition, continues to grow."
https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/661114-pis-wygrywa-najwazniejsza-bitwe-tej-kampanii

-- THE LEADERS OF THE ELECTION SLATES HAVE STARTED TO CARE ABOUT WINNING THE ELECTION, NOT ABOUT THEIR OWN WELL-BEING AND AESTHETIC IMPRESSIONS - PAWEŁ WROŃSKI IN GW: "This decision, however, is a good sign. It shows that the leaders of the election slates have started to care about winning the election, not about their own well-being and aesthetic impressions. And also - that the opposition is starting to go against PiS relatively broadly."

-- WILL THEY ATTRACT RIGHT-WING VOTERS, OR WILL THEY DISCOURAGE OTHER GROUPS, FOR EXAMPLE WOMEN - WROŃSKI FURTHER IN GW: "I don't know if figures like Artur Dziambor or Roman Giertych will decide the election victory. Whether they will attract right-wing voters, or discourage other groups, for example women. It is clearly visible that the leaders have bet on them as a counterweight to PiS candidates – Jarosław Kaczyński in Kielce or Stanisław Tyszka, a former Kukiz'15 activist (running from Rzeszów), currently the leader of the Konfederacja slate in Gdynia."

-- WROŃSKI ON "LAZY PEOPLE AND ORDINARY IDIOTS": "In the Polish electoral system, the slogans: 'I have no one to vote for', 'I am so outraged by the candidacy that I will stay home', are the arguments of a lazy person or an ordinary idiot (an idiot in Greece was a person who deprived themselves of the opportunity to participate in public life)."
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,30150074,artur-dziambor-na-liscie-trzeciej-drogi-te-wybory-nie-sa-dla.html

-- ILONA ŁEPKOWSKA EXPRESSED THE OPINION THAT, IN HER OPINION, TOO MUCH ATTENTION IS PAID TO THE ISSUE OF SEXUALITY AND LGBT IN THE MEDIA AND PUBLIC SPACE - AS SHE SAYS IN AN INTERVIEW WITH WPROST: "At times, I come to the conclusion that the most important thing is really LGBTQ, the use of feminatives, the word 'it' for people who do not identify with any gender. Or an article that I once found on the front page of the online edition of 'Gazeta Wyborcza', which stated that in some species of monkeys, males that mate with other males are much more fertile. So we start a discussion about homosexuality among monkeys - an article on the front page. When I saw that, I thought to myself: People, for f***'s sake! There's a war abroad, an economic crisis, social tensions, and you're on the front page of a major Polish newspaper discussing whether homosexual relations among monkeys affect their reproductive capacity? Well, that's just ridiculous."
https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/661048-ilona-lepkowska-mocno-skrytykowala-holownie-i-temat-lgbt

-- FILIKS ATTACKS STERTCZEWSKI: "Indeed - you're paddling along - but the rest of us are working. You don't know what a team means. And it's not a matter of a different opinion - but an attempt to play for yourself at the expense of the whole team. Don't ask again - I won't delete it."
https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/661059-filiks-atakuje-sterczewskiego-nie-wiesz-co-znaczy-druzyna

-- "SYMMETRIST" SROCZYŃSKI, HE BUILDS HIS CAREER COLDLY, INTELLIGENTLY. HE PARASITIZED ON "GAZETA WYBORCZA" AND THE LIBERAL SALON - CEZARY MICHALSKI IN INTERIA: "It's another matter with the 'symmetrist' Sroczyński, he builds his career coldly, intelligently. He parasitized on 'Gazeta Wyborcza' and the liberal salon until it was strong, or at least felt strong, i.e., until 2014, 2015. When Jarosław Kaczyński started to 'finish off' the liberal salon, Sroczyński also began to strike painful blows at the 'liberals'. All the while remembering to secure his own interests. His, Zandberg's, Orliński's, Leszczyński's... can best be understood by reading Dostoevsky's 'Demons', studying the behavior of Petya Verkhovensky and his radical flock. Petya parasitized on his mentors, guardians, often relatives or kin from the weak Russian liberal salon. And at the same time, he built a network of intergenerational relationships, preparing a coup within the liberal bubble to destroy it."

-- RMF FM IS NOT A LIBERAL SALON AT ALL, BUT A REGULAR CORPORATION CAREFULLY OBSERVING THE POLITICAL CONTEXT OF THE BUSINESS IT CONDUCTS - MICHALSKI FURTHER IN INTERIA: "After being 'symmetrically' insulted by Sroczyński as 'rabid mongrels' by the 'liberals' being finished off by Kaczyński, these same 'mongrels-liberals' gave him additional space on gazeta.pl and OKO.press. Additionally, RMF FM (this is not a liberal salon at all, but a regular corporation carefully observing the political context of the business it conducts) lent him its airtime. Mazurek will continue to crush the 'liberals' from the right there as usual, Sroczyński will crush them from the pseudo-left. Symmetry guaranteed."

-- RETURNING TO THE LIBERAL SALON, IF IT CONTINUES LIKE THIS, IT HAS NO CHANCE OF SURVIVAL. AND IT IS THE METAPOLITICAL BACKING OF THE LIBERAL OPPOSITION IN POLAND, SO ITS PARALYSIS AND GRADUAL DECAY WILL CERTAINLY NOT HELP THE OPPOSITION - WRITES CEZARY MICHALSKI: "Returning to the liberal salon, however, if it continues like this, it has no chance of survival. And it is the metapolitical backing of the liberal opposition in Poland, so its paralysis and gradual decay will certainly not help the opposition. Neither before these elections, nor after them. Therefore, while Kaczyński's investment in his own party is somewhat rational, although its scale is lethal for the Polish state, the liberal salon's pre-election investment in Sroczyński, even if minuscule, is a manifestation of suicidal absurdity."
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-najwieksza-publiczna-inwestycja-rzadow-pis-kampania-wyborcza,nId,6999273

-- APPARENTLY, THE SYMMETRISTS DO NOT NOTICE THIS DIFFERENCE - WITOLD GADOMSKI IN GW: "The fundamental difference between PiS and PO and other democratic opposition parties is obvious. PO will not make a grab for media unfavorable to it, will not change electoral law in a way that ensures its further victories, will not fill the courts and prosecutor's office with favorable people. If it wins, the subsequent elections will be free and democratic. Apparently, the symmetrists do not notice this difference."
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30147939,wszystkie-grzechy-symetrystow.html

-- BIRTHDAYS: Lidia Marcinkowska, Waldemar Kraska, Jan Ziobro, Amelia Łukasiak, Alicja Lis, Kazimierz Sas.

Łukasz Mężyk