state of play: 08/30/2023

POLITICAL GAME STATE: Karnowski: They are desperately trying to divert attention from truly important issues: unemployment levels now and under PO-PSL, army expansion under Kaczyński; Gądek: Jaki in Warsaw risks Gliński not winning a mandate

Łukasz Mężyk

-- SIGNIFICANT SUCCESS OF THE UKRAINIAN OFFENSIVE, BUT NOT YET A BREAKTHROUGH - SITUATION AT THE FRONT IN A REPORT BY PIOTR LEWANDOWSKI FOR OKO.PRESS: “Last week, the efforts of the sides focused on a narrow section of the front near the village of Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia. After liberating the settlement, the Ukrainian army began fighting on the main Russian defense line. This means that a breakthrough of the Russian defense has not occurred on any section, and the fighting to achieve such a breakthrough is only just beginning. At the same time, the Russians have transferred more units to the battle area, which indicates the progressive exhaustion of their available reserves. It should be emphasized that the capture of Robotyne has significance not only strategically but even operationally – only tactically. It will only be a success with significant importance for the entire Ukrainian offensive in Zaporizhzhia when the belt of Russian defense located beyond the settlement is broken.” https://oko.press/znaczacy-sukces-ukrainskiej-ofensywy-ale-jeszcze-nie-przelom-sytuacja-na-froncie -- KOMOROWSKI: GIERTYCH AND KOŁODZIEJCZAK ONCE DECIDEDLY DECLARED THEMSELVES AGAINST ABORTION ON DEMAND. I HOPE THE GENTLEMEN HAVE SHOWN CHARACTER AND HAVE NOT YIELDED TO PRESSURE - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/08/30/ -- ZIOBRO AS NUMBER ONE IN LUBLIN REGION? - JEDYNKA DZIENNIKA WSCHODNIEGO. -- ZBIGNIEW ZIOBRO IN CHEŁM OR RZESZÓW? DAWID JACKIEWICZ IN OLSZTYN OR WROCŁAW? KAMIL BORTNICZUK IN PŁOCK, AND MARIUSZ BŁASZCZAK STILL IN THE WARSAW BELT? - AGATA KONDZIŃSKA IN GW: “In Kielce, where Kaczyński now wants to run, the list was opened four years ago by the leader of Suwerenna Polska, Zbigniew Ziobro. Now he is being considered for the seventh constituency, which includes Chełm, Biała Podlaska, and Zamość. - I've also heard about Rzeszów, it's a larger constituency with 15 mandates, but I don't know what decisions will be made. However, rather Chełm – tells us our source from the PiS party headquarters at ul. Nowogrodzka in Warsaw.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,30132104,w-pis-sie-gotuje-wielkie-przetasowania-na-listach-wyborczych.html -- HE IS A LAUGHINGSTOCK IN PIS, BUT HE MAY STILL REPLACE KACZYŃSKI IN WARSAW - JACEK GĄDEK IN GAZETA.PL: “It is not decided whether and where MEP Patryk Jaki from Suwerenna Polska will run. Various options are being considered: as the leader of the list in Bydgoszcz or a position on the list in Warsaw, although a politician from Suwerenna Polska, as we are told in PiS, would like to challenge Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. The head of government wants to be – and has already announced it as a certainty – the leader of the PiS list in Katowice (as in the 2019 elections), so Jaki would like to compete with him in Silesia, running from seat no. 2. There is no final decision yet. Says a PiS politician close to Nowogrodzka: – Placing Jaki in Warsaw carries the risk that Gliński will not win a mandate as the list leader – it would be embarrassing. Gosiewska, for that matter, might also not get in then.” https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,30133982,jest-w-pis-posmiewiskiem-ale-i-tak-moze-zastapic-kaczynskiego.html -- SOCIAL CHANGES RESEARCH FOR WPOLITYCE.PL ON INCREASING POLARIZATION: “If elections to the Polish parliament were held next Sunday, 40 percent of respondents would vote for Zjednoczona Prawica (+1 percent compared to last week's survey). Koalicja Obywatelska could count on 31 percent of the votes (+2). Konfederacja has the support of 11 percent of respondents (-2). Lewica unchanged: 7 percent (0). Szymon Hołownia's Polska 2050 is weakening slightly – 4 percent (-1). PSL is also losing – the party's support in our survey is 3 percent (-1). Kukiz'15 and Porozumienie unchanged – 1 percent each.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/660441-sensacyjny-przelom-pis-ma-czworke-z-przodu -- HOW PIS OVERDID PROPAGANDA - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “. Only 28% of them feel safer. Therefore, there are fewer people who feel safer than PiS voters. Thus, even a part of Jarosław Kaczyński's electorate does not feel an improvement in safety. Perhaps PiS fell victim to its own propaganda here. It scares us with migrants storming our border, it scares us with immigrant ghettos in Western European cities. But in this scaremongering, as it turns out, it overdid it, as it deprived a part of its own voters of a sense of security. And even they do not believe that PiS is able to restore it.” https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art39020911-michal-szuldrzynski-dlaczego-stawiajac-na-bezpieczenstwo-pis-strzelilo-gola-do-wlasnej-bramki -- CZAPUTOWICZ LIKE KAZIMIERZ MARCINKIEWICZ - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “In short: he is to play the role of Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz for the Third Republic camp. A person formerly from within the ruling camp, making the worst and unverifiable accusations, is a constant motif of all opposition campaigns. In this formula, one can say anything, depending on the current demand. In the absence of a program, such distractors are invaluable to them. Especially now, TVN and Tusk need it like air, because the campaign is not going their way. They are desperately trying to divert Poles' attention from truly important issues: unemployment levels now and under PO-PSL, army expansion under Kaczyński and its dismantling under Tusk, retirement age, defense of the eastern border. The goal is to drag PiS into an absurd squabble, to knock it off the tracks of a campaign that is bringing growth and can give the pro-Polish camp a third term. That's why we are to talk about Kołodziejczak on PO's lists, Giertych thrown by PO into Świętokrzyskie, Tusk's grandchildren. Or precisely about the suddenly brought-up accusations of Professor Czaputowicz.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/660419-krotki-i-jedyny-komentarz-na-temat-slow-czaputowicza -- THIS LEADS TO ABSURD CONCLUSIONS, WHEN OKO.PRESS IS ACCUSED OF FAVORING LAW AND JUSTICE, ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO POINT TO A PUBLICATION IN POLAND THAT WOULD DEDICATE MORE ENERGY TO CRITICIZING THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT - JAN RADOMSKI IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “When, in turn, 'symmetry' is used as an insult, both of these orders completely mix. It turns out that journalism or science should be subordinate to politics. A 'symmetrist' becomes anyone who notices any flaw in what Koalicja Obywatelska is doing, let alone looking for merit in what the other side says or does. Therefore, it is unimaginable to be a 'symmetrist' and at the same time oppose the ruling right. This leads to absurd conclusions, when OKO.press is accused of favoring Prawo i Sprawiedliwość, although it is difficult to point to a publication in Poland that would dedicate more energy to criticizing the current government.” -- SINCE 2015, SYMMETRISTS HAVE BEEN SHOWING HOW THE RIGHT WON THE ELECTIONS – THEY POINT OUT THE SOCIAL MECHANISMS THAT STOOD BEHIND IT - RADOMSKI CONTINUES: “Since 2015, 'symmetrists' have been showing how the right won the elections – they point out the social mechanisms that stood behind it. But instead of listening to them, some opponents of the government prefer to remain in a magical world where good fights evil. This division allows for a lack of reflection. The fairy-tale evil does not need to be understood; it can simply be hated.” -- BOTH SIDES THEN LIVE THEIR OWN LIVES AND CREATE PARALLEL NARRATIVES, ACCORDING TO THE PRINCIPLES OF CLASSIC IN-GROUP AND OUT-GROUP - RADOMSKI WRITES IN KRYTYKA: “Liberal elites can fantasize about Prawo i Sprawiedliwość as they please, analogous to the fantasies that PiS supporters have about Donald Tusk or Koalicja Obywatelska. Both sides then live their own lives and create parallel narratives, according to the principles of the classic in-group and out-group. But Bauman's 'outsiders' are more intrusive, they cannot be so easily fended off. Meller, Sitnicka, Sroczyński, or Wróbel poke their noses into things that are not their business, they observe, they ask questions, they question beliefs. And worst of all – sometimes they are even right.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/dlaczego-holdys-i-lis-nie-lubia-symetrystow/ -- REGARDING WOMEN'S RIGHTS, THERE ARE FOUR OF US AT HOME: MY MOTHER, ME, AND MY TWO SISTERS. SO WE'LL PROBABLY KEEP AN EYE ON HIM - THIS IS HOW ROMAN GIERTYCH'S DAUGHTER KAROLINA DESCRIBES HIM IN A JOINT YOUTUBE VIDEO - IWONA SZPALA IN GW: “Apparently, he is ready to conduct a very interesting campaign, in which he will use all his knowledge about your common and separate work.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,30133166,giertych-nagral-filmik-z-corka-przypilnujemy-go-w-sprawie.html -- AS A RESULT OF TAKING GIERTYCH ON BOARD, PO LOSES THE ABILITY TO CREDIBLY PUNISH PIS ON WOMEN'S RIGHTS. THE MARCH OF A MILLION HEARTS ON OCTOBER 1 WILL BE A MARCH IN THE NAME OF SOLIDARITY WITH JOANNA FROM KRAKOW. UNDER THE SPIRITUAL ADOPTION OF PATRON GIERTYCH - GALOPUJĄCY MAJOR IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA. -- GIERTYCH IS TUSK'S BUDDY AND DESPERATELY NEEDS HELP IN THE FORM OF IMMUNITY, OTHERWISE HE WON'T RETURN TO POLAND - WRITES MAJOR: “Applying Occam's razor, one can conclude that the reason is quite prosaic. Giertych is Tusk's buddy and desperately needs help in the form of immunity, otherwise he won't return to Poland. Both are well aware that winning these elections will be very difficult, and another loss means another four years of Roman Giertych's vacation in Italy.” -- IT IS CLEAR THAT WINNING AND IMPROVING THE LOT OF PREGNANT WOMEN IS LESS IMPORTANT TO HIM THAN THE FATE OF MR. PATRON - MAJOR CONTINUES IN KRYTYKA: “Everything else is just adding muddy theories to something that has always driven Polish politics. Voters can be deceived, and buddies must be helped and granted impunity. And if this deception makes voters ask themselves if, since Tusk deceived them regarding the election lists, he won't deceive them regarding 500+ and the retirement age? Well, it's clear that winning and improving the lot of pregnant women is less important to him than the fate of Mr. Patron.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/klamstwo-tuska-na-temat-giertycha/ -- NO! WE WILL NOT GOVERN WITH KONFEDERACJA, WHICH SAYS WOMEN WHO HAVE ABORTIONS SHOULD GO TO PRISON - IZABELA LESZCZYNA QUOTED IN A TEXT BY AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK AND MICHAŁ DANIELEWSKI IN OKO.PRESS: “And perhaps taking Giertych on board strengthens the right leg of Koalicja Obywatelska, which is meant to help build a bridge between KO and Konfederacja? 'No! We will not govern with Konfederacja, which says women who have abortions should go to prison, and democracy is a hopeless system. Sławomir Mentzen doesn't even have a clear opinion on Poland's presence in the EU, and he makes any potential Polexit dependent on 'what happens later with the EU.' There's no question of us co-governing with such a party!' – firmly emphasizes the deputy leader of PO.” https://oko.press/giertych-bedzie-musial-poprzec-prawo-do-aborcji -- THE VAST MAJORITY OF POLES HAVE A MUCH MORE SOBER ATTITUDE TO WHAT IS HAPPENING ON THE TITLE 'GREEN BORDER' THAN THE FILMMAKERS. ONLY FANATIC INDIVIDUALS ACCUSE THE BORDER GUARD OF CRIMES - JAN MACIEJEWSKI IN RZ: “And since this is the case, if everything indicates that we are dealing here not only with film journalism but simply with agitation, then it seems permissible to hold the creators accountable not only for artistic impressions but also for political effectiveness. And in this regard, it seems to me that Agnieszka Holland, Maja Ostaszewska, et consortes will suffer a painful defeat. This is because the vast majority of Poles have a much more sober attitude to what is happening on the title 'Green Border' than the film's creators. Only fanatic individuals accuse the Border Guard of crimes against humanity. There is much more sympathy and gratitude towards the border defenders than indignation. And an attempt to play against these emotions in the worst, let's add, celebrity-style, contemptuous manner towards the rural masses, who are primarily afraid for their own safety and the safety of their loved ones, will end with admiration in the pages of 'Newsweek' and 'Polityka', but I doubt it will encourage anyone outside of these already over-motivated individuals to vote against the current rulers. It's more likely to do the opposite.” https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art39024831-jan-maciejewski-agnieszka-holland-agituje-na-zielonej-granicy -- BIRTHDAYS: Liliana Sonik, Jacek Brzezinka.

Łukasz Mężyk