-- POLITICAL PLAN FOR TUESDAY: SZYDŁO WITH THE RESIDENTS OF PUŁTUSK, KOSINIAK AND HOŁOWNIA AT THE CAMPUS, LEWICA'S NUMBER ONES, THE BEGINNING OF THE SENATE SESSION, THE OPENING OF THE CIVIC KO HEADQUARTERS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/08/29/ -- 51.8 PERCENT OF THOSE SURVEYED WANT TO PARTICIPATE IN BOTH THE SEJM AND SENATE ELECTIONS AS WELL AS THE REFERENDUM - GAZETA.PL REPORTS ON THE UNITED SURVEYS POLL FOR WIRTUALNA POLSKA: "Almost 41 percent of respondents declared that they intend to vote for new parliamentarians but want to boycott the referendum. 51.8 percent of those surveyed want to participate in both the Sejm and Senate elections as well as the referendum. The group of voters interested only in the referendum is only 0.5 percent, and 1.4 percent do not intend to vote at all. The remaining almost 6 percent do not know what they will do on October 15. The polling firm that conducted the survey specified groups of voters for specific parties among the respondents. Thus, among Law and Justice supporters, almost all declare participation in both the elections and the referendum – that is 99 percent of respondents. In the case of voters for the opposition, this group is 24 percent, and as many as 74 percent want to boycott the referendum. Among voters who do not have clear electoral preferences, 52 percent want to participate in both votes, and 15 percent refuse to participate in the referendum." https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,143907,30129192,pis-zapowiedzialo-referendum-z-wyborami-parlamentarnymi-polacy.html -- THE RESULT OBTAINED BY PiS IN THE LATEST CBOS POLL MEANS AN INDEPENDENT MAJORITY. IF THE DEMOCRATIC OPPOSITION DOES NOT START TO GAIN, KACZYŃSKI'S THIRD TERM IS POSSIBLE - AGNIESZKA KUBLIK IN GW: "It's worth remembering that CBOS is a state institution, supervised by the head of government, whose surveyors are often perceived as representatives of the state office, and respondents more often select the ruling party in their answers. It usually overestimates the ratings of the party in power and underestimates the opposition. The same happened when the PO-PSL coalition was in power. But this time, both the Kantar Public study and CBOS show that PiS gained during the summer." https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,30129086,cbos-pis-coraz-silniejszy.html -- GIERTYCH SUITS LEWICA AND PIS - ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA IN RZ: "Civic Coalition did not dare to utter a word. However, New Left rejoiced (no one will ask the national social democrats anymore what distinguishes them from Platform) as well as PiS. Politicians from the ruling camp have been talking about Giertych in national media since Monday morning. It is clear that this opponent suits them very well, as he can easily be fitted with various accusations against KO." -- TUSK WANTS TO CRUSH THE OPPONENT SO MUCH THAT HE IS GOING ALL THE WAY, BECAUSE THE TEMPTATION TO FOUL THE ENEMY IS STRONGER THAN POTENTIAL TROUBLES. SO NO FINE ELECTORAL DRIBBLES - DĄBROWSKA CONTINUES: "So, polarization in full bloom. Both main forces feed on each other and their own fears. I don't know how much voters in Kielce will feel mobilized now, but it is certain that Donald Tusk, like a true striker in the Polish Ekstraklasa, cannot 'hold back his leg'. He wants to crush the opponent so much that he goes all the way, because the temptation to foul the enemy is stronger than potential troubles. So, no fine electoral dribbles. Donald Tusk passes to Roman Giertych, who runs with the wind into the penalty area. Let's just hope he doesn't lose the ball and notices the goal." https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art39015711-zuzanna-dabrowska-roman-giertych-jako-napastnik-pasuje-pis -- THE CLAIM THAT THE PRESIDENT OF PiS CHICKENED OUT BEFORE TUSK IMPROVES THE MOOD OF OPPOSITION VOTERS AND POLITICIANS. THE ONLY THING IS THAT THE MOVE KACZYŃSKI IS MOST LIKELY TO MAKE MAY TRANSLATE INTO A PiS VICTORY - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: "Instead of joking about Jarosław Kaczyński, who intends to run for the Sejm from outside Warsaw, the opposition should look at the motives behind this decision, which may prove very dangerous for them. Certainly, the claim that the PiS leader chickened out before Donald Tusk and does not want to face him in the capital improves the mood of opposition voters and politicians. The only thing is that the move Jarosław Kaczyński is most likely to make may translate into a PiS victory." https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art39015151-michal-szuldrzynski-dlaczego-jaroslaw-kaczynski-nie-wystartuje-w-warszawie -- PIS CONSISTENTLY APPLIES THE TACTIC OF SCRIMPING FOR VOTES - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI CONTINUES IN RZ: "Jarosław Kaczyński knows that literally every vote will count. Because the number of MPs he brings to the Sejm will depend on it. This is the effect of PiS's broader plan to scrape for votes. By making similar reshuffles elsewhere, Jarosław Kaczyński's party can get closer to a majority in the Sejm. Moreover, PiS has already introduced a number of solutions to help it. After all, the regulation that requires increasing the number of polling stations in the smallest towns was introduced for this purpose. Voter turnout in cities in 2019 was 65 percent, while in villages it was 57 percent. Increasing the number of polling stations may increase turnout in rural areas, where PiS has greater opportunities to mobilize voters than in large cities. PiS has quite well-developed analytical models that take into account not only nationwide polls but also operate on data from previous elections." https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art39015151-michal-szuldrzynski-dlaczego-jaroslaw-kaczynski-nie-wystartuje-w-warszawie -- THE PRESIDENT OF PiS MOVING TO THE ŚwięTOKRZYSKIE CONSTITUENCY IS A SIGNAL THAT THE PROGRAMMATIC SWITCH HAS BEEN THROWN IN THIS PARTY: IT IS TO PRESENT ITSELF EVEN MORE STRONGLY THAN BEFORE AS THE REPRESENTATIVE OF LOCAL POLAND - ARKADIUSZ GRUSZCZYŃSKI, MICHAŁ WOJTCZUK IN GW: "'You have recognized this well, we want at all costs to emphasize our camp's concern for rural Poland and smaller towns by October 15. And above all, to recall the largest local investments,' one of the PiS activists tells us. This is clearly visible in the recent statements of the most important governing politicians. (...) Only about 12 percent of voters live in cities with over 500,000 inhabitants, another 34 percent – in medium and large cities between 20,000 and 500,000, in small towns up to 20,000 inhabitants – about 15 percent, and about 39 percent – in rural areas. The electoral mandate allocation system, which has not been updated since 2011, favors non-metropolitan centers, which elect more MPs than they should, and discriminates against larger cities, especially Warsaw." https://warszawa.wyborcza.pl/warszawa/7,54420,30126478,pis-rysuje-nowy-polityczny-podzial-tej-kampanii-polska-wielkich.html -- FOR MANY OPPOSITION VOTERS, THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF GIERTYCH'S PARTICIPATION WAS A SHOCK - ANGELINA KOSIEK IN KIELECKA GW: "For many opposition voters, the announcement of Giertych's participation was a shock. They remember how during the first PiS governments, they censored school readings and removed Witold Gombrowicz from them. Nothing is known about Giertych changing his views on women's rights either." -- THE CURRENT MP FROM PO DOES NOT WANT TO RUN FROM ANY OTHER PLACE THAN THE ONE TUSK GAVE TO GIERTYCH - CONTINUES IN THE LOCAL GW: "After Giertych got onto the list, someone from the candidates already approved by KO had to be removed. Formally, it was Adam Cyrański's place, but from what we've established, the Świętokrzyskie activists wanted the current MP to run anyway. According to our information, he was offered a not very good position, somewhere in the middle of the list. In the region, they concluded that they would certainly not take a place from someone at the top. To cede a position on the list to the current MP, one of the men from smaller districts was considered. But in KO, they are convinced that such a situation will not occur. They expect that Adam Cyrański will not run in these elections, that he will reject this new offer." https://kielce.wyborcza.pl/kielce/7,47262,30129340,zamieszanie-na-liscie-ko-po-zapowiedzi-startu-giertycha-cyranski.html -- WITHOUT THE THIRD WAY IN THE SEJM, TAKING POWER FROM THE UNITED RIGHT IS PRACTICALLY IMPOSSIBLE - ROMAN IMIELSKI IN GW: "So what should voters of the democratic opposition do? As Andrzej Machowski, the originator of the citizen poll, writes, 'The Third Way – in the interest of the entire opposition – should be cheered on now and wished the best possible result. And this means refraining from appeals to shift votes to the strongest KO, which are extremely dangerous for the entire opposition.' Because without the Third Way in the Sejm, taking power from the United Right is practically impossible. And another term for PiS and its affiliates means the death of democracy in our country. Kaczyński has already announced that after a potential victory, he will finish off the judiciary. In the queue are free media, non-governmental organizations, and local governments." https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,30127038,tusk-i-kaczynski-graja-va-banque.html -- THEY CAME TO KONFEDERACJA TEMPTED BY THE VISION OF LOW TAXES AND NOW THEY HAVE RETREATED. AND IT IS UNKNOWN WHAT THEY WILL DO NEXT - PRZEMYSŁAW SADURA IN CONVERSATION WITH KATARZYNA PRZYBORSKA IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: "If I had to speculate, I would say that the media have fulfilled their function. Konfederacja has been brought out of the shadows, put under a microscope, thoroughly examined, and some voters have reconsidered their choice. The poll we conducted with Sławek Sierakowski showed that among Konfederacja supporters there are fanatics, cynics, and skeptics. These groups, like in PiS, are of similar size. But much indicated that the increase in support for Konfederacja in recent months resulted not so much from an influx of ideological, identity-based voters, but rather from cynics who chose something from Konfederacja's program that was particularly beneficial to them, while ignoring other demands or not knowing them at all. They came to Konfederacja tempted by the vision of low taxes and now they have retreated. And it is unknown what they will do next." -- THIS MAY BE AN ARGUMENT FOR SOME SUPPORTERS OF THE DEMOCRATIC OPPOSITION TO VOTE FOR NOWA LEWICA AFTER ALL - SADURA CONTINUES AT PRZYBORSKA IN KRYTYKA: "The attack on so-called 'symmetrists', the decision to remove Grzegorz Sroczyński and his entire panel from participation under pressure from the most ardent supporters of Tusk is a certain problem for Campus Polska organized in Olsztyn. Then we have the removal of activist Jana Shostak from the lists for a statement on abortion. For some voters, this may be a signal that if not Giertych, then Ziobro is rearranging KO's electoral lists and the program of their large events. (...) This may be an argument for some supporters of the democratic opposition to vote for Nowa Lewica after all, which is more resistant to such right-wing actions. Lewica can also remind its electorate that it unconditionally and credibly adheres to its postulates, and therefore will be a guarantor of real pluralism on the opposition side." -- WE ARE ANTICIPATING A REAL POLITICAL THRILLER. LET'S JUST HOPE THAT THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE MOST COMMITTED KO SUPPORTERS DOES NOT MANIFEST AS ATTACKS ON HOŁOWNIA, SYMMETRISTS, OR LEWICA - SADURA FURTHER STATES IN KRYTYKA: "Perhaps this is wishful thinking, but there is a chance that the intensifying struggle between the two giants will discourage some voters, and the level of the campaign, especially the amount of hatred served to us, will disgust them. Poles have not accepted such open conflict in politics for a long time. So perhaps the Third Way will be the force that, being less engaged in the most brutal campaign, will gather the discouraged. Not discouraged with democracy in general, but with this conflict in the mainstream. But will it work? I fear we will not know until the election results are announced. We are anticipating a real political thriller. Let's just hope that the intensification of the most committed KO supporters does not manifest as attacks on Hołownia, symmetrists, or Lewica. Internal struggles among opposition supporters harm the common cause, which is defeating PiS." https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/wybory2023-platforma-idzie-w-populizm/ -- BIRTHDAYS: Marzena Machałek, Arkadiusz Wiśniewski, Ewa Wanat, Jakub Stefaniak, Paweł Bryłowski, Artur Ostrowski.