state of play: 08/28/2023
POLITICAL GAME: Szubartowicz: Tusk Prefers Real Politics Over Appeasing Urban Elites; Karnowski: Essentially Chaos, Spasms Masking Tusk's Strategic Failure; Orlen: 100 More Alternative Fueling Stations in a Year
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-- RZ SURVEY SHOWS STAGNATION - WRITES ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA: “The changes on the political support map are not significant. PiS registers the same figures as a month ago – 33.4%. KO gains slightly – 1 percentage point, to 27.2%. Konfederacja loses from 12.7% to 12.4%. Lewica loses 1.4 points, down to 9.3%, and Trzecia Droga drops by 0.8 percentage points. However, the percentage of undecided voters is increasing – from 4.2% to 7.7%. This presents another challenge for parties that must fiercely compete for the votes of this group.”
-- KONFEDERACJA HOLDS THE CARDS WITH A STRONG CAUCUS - WRITES DĄBROWSKA: “According to seat calculators, the situation remains unchanged: PiS is unable to govern alone, securing 190–195 seats. Konfederacja holds the cards with a strong caucus of 50–55 MPs, while the opposition secures 209–215 seats and remains in opposition.”
https://www.rp.pl/wybory/art39012901-nowy-sondaz-pis-bez-samodzielnej-wiekszosci-karty-rozdaje-konfederacja
-- JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI'S START FROM KIELCE COULD PAY OFF FOR PIS - ARTUR BARTKIEWICZ IN RZ: “Of course, the results from 2019 should be treated only as a guideline – in those elections, PiS won 43.59% of the votes nationwide, and KO – 27.40%. Today, the difference between the two parties is smaller. Nevertheless, it is evident that while PiS has little prospect of gains in Warsaw (losing a seat is more likely), in the Kielce constituency, which is clearly one of PiS's strongholds, there are chances to gain even two additional seats. Jarosław Kaczyński is more likely to mobilize potential PiS voters who are staying home to go to the polls in a constituency where his party receives more than half the votes than in Warsaw.”
https://www.rp.pl/wybory/art39013901-dlaczego-pis-moze-zyskac-na-starcie-jaroslawa-kaczynskiego-z-kielc
-- THE CAMPAIGN TODAY IS CHAOS, EMOTIONAL SPASMS, AND NUMEROUS MISTAKES - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “What the Civic Platform is doing today only superficially appears to be a well-thought-out election campaign. In reality, it is chaos, a kind of spasm intended to cover up the strategic and conceptual failure of Tusk's plan.”
-- THE PRICE WILL ALSO COME, AND IT WILL BE HIGH: CHAOS IN MESSAGING, DEMOBILIZATION OF IMPORTANT VOTER GROUPS - KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: “Neither Kołodziejczak nor Giertych will change the fate of the Platform. At best, they provide a two-day reprieve (though uncertain in Giertych's case). But the price will also come, and it will be high: chaos in messaging, demobilization of significant voter groups, internal conflicts, and the baggage of both politicians' entire life paths. This is not a recipe for victory; it's merely a stimulant, which, as we know, causes severe side effects.”
-- A PROCESS IS OCCURRING AT TVN THAT LONG AGO AFFECTED THE "GAZETA WYBORCZA," WHICH IMPERCEPTIBLY TRANSFORMED FROM A MEDIUM REPRESENTING THE CENTER OF THE POLISH MEDIA WORLD INTO A MEDIUM SERVING A SHRINKING GROUP OF ITS OWN FOLLOWERS - KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: “The Platform overestimates the power of its media, especially TVN. It failed to notice that this still powerful station is no longer a (universally) potent one. In previous campaigns, it was able to dictate moods, tones, evaluations, interpretations, and, most importantly, the battle topics. Today, it no longer can, or at least to a progressively lesser extent. A process is occurring that long ago affected 'Gazeta Wyborcza,' which imperceptibly transformed from a medium representing the center of the Polish media world into a medium that is increasingly closed off, serving a shrinking group of its own followers (who are also becoming more radicalized and are being radicalized). Of course, these are broader, civilizational processes, but the consequences are much more painful for liberals and the left; the right has never relied to such an extent on the strength of a specific station; its sources of strength lie elsewhere.”
https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/660147-kampania-po-to-dzis-chaos-spazmy-emocji-i-liczne-bledy
-- TUSK IS FIELDING GIERTYCH BECAUSE HE PREFERS REAL POLITICS TO APPEASING URBAN ELITES. THE UPCOMING ELECTION IS ABOUT REAL VICTORY, NOT MORAL VICTORY - PRZEMYSŁAW SZUBARTOWICZ IN INTERIA: “The ritual outrage of the left over the political resuscitation of a former 'endek' who has somewhat modified his views does not change the fact that Tusk, in this case, has chosen real politics over appeasing this or that urban couch. The fight today is about a real victory, not a moral one.”
-- THE KANTAR RESULT MAY BE AN EXCEPTION, BUT IT GIVES OPPOSITION LEADERS FOOD FOR THOUGHT - IT SHOWED THAT THE HUNGARIAN SCENARIO IS NOT AT ALL EXCLUDED - SZUBARTOWICZ CONTINUES: “However, the opposition has another problem it will soon have to face. It is the growing fear that is beginning to gnaw at the leaders of Trzecia Droga and Lewica, whether they will be able to cross the electoral threshold. A recent poll by Kantar Public – which, in comparison to other surveys, is somewhat of an exception, but gives opposition leaders food for thought – showed that the Hungarian scenario is not at all excluded. Of course, one can assume that the drop in support for Konfederacja is a result of PiS taking over the xenophobic agenda, but if, alongside the weakening of the smaller opposition parties, KO fails to even minimally surpass PiS, Kaczyński will be able to guarantee himself a solo government.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-wszystkie-chwyty,nId,6990257
-- FOR THE FIRST TIME IN TWO YEARS, TUSK IS APPEARING WITH A SECOND PERSON. WITH A REAL SECOND PERSON, NOT WITH "PEOPLE FROM THE SLIP," OVEREXPOSED CELEBRITIES - CEZARY MICHALSKI IN INTERIA: “For the first time in two years, Donald Tusk is appearing with a second person. With a real second person, not with 'people from the slip,' overexposed celebrities, girls and boys who have the advantage of being (and remaining in the new Sejm) completely under his political control, but have the disadvantage of contributing nothing to the campaign. This real second person is Michał Kołodziejczak. His move to the democratic opposition side could become a turning point in this campaign.”
-- THE LEFTIST MICRO-SALON IN LIBERAL MEDIA IS KACZYŃSKI'S BIGGEST ALLY - MICHALSKI CONTINUES: “If the radical left paralyzes the liberal media in this campaign, if it takes over the language of the liberal center, the most horrific right-wing will win in Poland. If liberal Poland convinces the social center and even a small part of the Polish countryside, the most horrific right-wing will not win. Therefore, the leftist micro-salon in liberal media is Kaczyński's biggest ally. And that is why Kołodziejczak on Tusk's side is a chance that Polish modernization has not had for a long time.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-agrotusk-i-przyszlosc-michala-kolodziejczaka,nId,6985159
-- UNDERMINING TRUST IN THE MEDIA SERVES NEITHER THE OPPOSITION NOR DEMOCRACY – AS IT MAKES IT EASIER FOR PIS TO DISCREDIT THE WORK OF JOURNALISTS - TOMASZ SAWCZUK IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “Herein lies the problem: the view that free media are unnecessary is, in practice, dangerous for democracy. Of course, it is not the case that media do not make mistakes (there is no such thing as 'media in general,' after all). Contemporary illiberal democracy – in our case, the autocratization of the system by PiS – is an experiment on a living organism, and as a society, we are all learning how to provide the best political responses to it. However, it is clear that the media must simultaneously hold power accountable for abuses and cannot operate on command from parties or political groups on social media. This evokes emotions; politicians sometimes dislike it; sometimes someone says something foolish; well, that's how it is. This does not change the fact that free and strong media institutions are an important and necessary element of modern democracy. And undermining trust in the media serves neither the opposition nor democracy – because it makes it easier for PiS to discredit the work of journalists. Therefore, calling problems by their name is necessary; but a bit of magnanimity and diplomacy will also do us good.”
https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2023/08/28/sawczuk-w-poniedzialek-awantura-o-campus-i-co-dalej/
-- KONFEDERACJA WAS DOING QUITE WELL UNTIL THEY PRETENDED EVERYTHING WAS FINE WITH THEM - KATARZYNA PRZYBORSKA IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “In a month, support for Konfederacja has halved, from about 14% to 7%. It turns out that we apparently like our grandmothers and grandfathers and want them to have pensions, we also want to be able to see a doctor, have free education, and even women want to be free. All indications are that the party has decided to continue its downward trajectory and do everything to hit rock bottom. (...) Perhaps it is therefore good that Konfederacja is so readily revealing its ugliness.”
https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/czy-konfederacja-dorzuci-do-piwka-kotlet-z-pieska/
-- HOW TO QUICKLY GET OFF THE KO LIST? BY OFFENDING ANTI-ABORTION SENTIMENTS - PAULINA JANUSZEWSKA IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “It turns out that Zbigniew Ziobro is now deciding who runs on behalf of the Civic Coalition. All it took was for the Minister of Justice to launch a Twitter hunt against Jana Shostak for her to lose her spot on the election list with a bang. It was about the right to abortion. (...) In short: the KO leadership, in reaction to Ziobro's crude comment, decides in a panic to withdraw from its own decisions. And this was supposed to be the progressive, anti-PiS Tusk, clearly distinguishing himself from the right and being pro-women. After all, a year ago, he declared at the Congress of Women mentioned at the beginning of this text that he would not accept candidates on the election lists who were against the liberalization of abortion law.”
-- THE INCLUSION OF OPENLY ANTI-ABORTION INDIVIDUALS, SUCH AS MICHAŁ KOŁODZIEJCZAK, WHO TRIES TO DIPLOMATICALLY OR LESS DIPLOMATICALLY MASK HIS VIEWS WITH A DESIRE TO ORGANIZE A REFERENDUM, IS ALSO AN EXPRESSION OF THIS REFUSAL - JANUSZEWSKA CONTINUES IN KRYTYKA: “An expression of this refusal is also the inclusion on the election lists of openly anti-abortion individuals, such as Michał Kołodziejczak, who tries to diplomatically or less diplomatically mask his views with a desire to organize a referendum. Women are to decide in it what law they want for themselves. The problem is that it is not only they who participate in such a vote. Moreover, this form is not binding for the authorities, and the vote itself can be easily manipulated if tendentious questions are presented to citizens. Above all, however, women and other people who can become pregnant should not ask the entire society for permission for an abortion.”
https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/jak-szybko-wyleciec-z-listy-ko-obrazajac-uczucia-antyaborcyjne/
-- IN A YEAR, WE HAVE EXPANDED OUR NETWORK OF ALTERNATIVE FUELING STATIONS BY ALMOST 100 POINTS - ANNOUNCES ORLEN: We are also strengthening our international presence; after finalizing the agreement in Austria, our European network will comprise over 3400 stations, of which 44% are foreign stations.
https://x.com/GrupaORLEN/status/1694674329743606206?s=20
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