state of play: 08/23/2023

Political Landscape: Senate Pact Collapses in Lublin, Opposition Accused of Fabricating PiS Decline Narrative; Pekao S.A. Art Exhibitions Go Outdoors

Łukasz Mężyk

-- EVEN BEFORE THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN FULLY KICKED OFF, THE METICULOUSLY CONSTRUCTED SENATE PACT HAS JUST CEASED TO EXIST IN TWO LUBLIN DISTRICTS - JACEK BRZUSZKIEWICZ IN GW: “In the background are dark matters from the candidates’ past. One has an episode with a police record, and the other has close ties to PiS. (...) Bratkowski’s candidacy from PSL will cause opposition votes to be split in two. This will give a chance to the PiS candidate. It will either be the current senator Jerzy Chróścikowski or former member of the Lublin Voivodeship board during the PiS government, Andrzej Olborski. (...) However, the turmoil surrounding the Senate pact in Lublin does not end with district no. 19, because in the Chełm district (no. 18), Józef Zając, a candidate quietly supported by the opposition, will also have a rival. And from the opposition. This is about 48-year-old Rafał Stachura, co-owner of a large farm, raising cattle in the Hańsk commune in Włodawa County. Four years ago, Stachura ran for the Senate in this district, with the entire democratic opposition behind him. (...) - Four years ago, I got a good result and I promised voters then that I would achieve my goal in 2023 - Rafał Stachura explains to 'Wyborcza', reminding that his opponent Józef Zając was supported by PiS four years ago. - Today, I am the anti-PiS candidate”.
https://lublin.wyborcza.pl/lublin/7,48724,30106600,wybory-2023-na-lubelszczyznie-posypala-sie-koncepcja-paktu.html

-- THE MOST DANGEROUS MOMENT OF THIS CAMPAIGN FOR PIS. THE OPPOSITION'S GOAL IS CLEAR - TO KNOCK THEM OFF THE COURSE THAT COULD LEAD TO A THIRD TERM - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “The results of this poll are very good for Law and Justice. And yet, the opposition media are just now starting to promote a narrative about alleged drops in support for Law and Justice. Soon they will again announce the thesis of a ‘near miss’ – although it has already been announced several times, always briefly. Some research centers have no shame. (...) The opposition's goal is clear – to knock Jarosław Kaczyński's camp off the course that could lead to a third term. To force a change of topics to those convenient for the Third Republic camp, to abandon offensiveness, to lure them into traps of debate about secondary, emotional, ideological matters”.
https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/659514-najbardziej-niebezpieczny-moment-tej-kampanii-dla-pis
 
-- SOCIAL CHANGES POLL: PiS 39%, KO 29%, K 12%, Lewica 8%, 3D 8%
https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/659522-nasz-sondaz-rewelacyjny-wynik-prawa-i-sprawiedliwosci

-- THIS IS A KIND OF COMMUNITY OF FATE: A POOR ELECTION RESULT COULD ULTIMATELY END TUSK'S POLITICAL CAREER, BUT NO ONE IN CIVIC PLATFORM CAN BE SURE THAT THE PARTY WILL SURVIVE THE LEADER'S FINAL DEPARTURE - RAFAŁ KALUKIN IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “Longer-serving Platform members suggest that there was never such devotion to the leader’s will, not even during their time in government. This is because the former prime minister’s authority has grown even further after a few seasons in global politics. Meanwhile, the lull of the inter-Tusk era has convinced the party that the project only makes sense under the guardianship of the founding father. It is a kind of community of fate: a poor election result could ultimately end Tusk's political career, but no one in Civic Platform can be sure that the party will survive the leader's final departure”.

-- AN ERSATZ OF THE GRAND BLOC THAT HE HIMSELF FAILED TO ACHIEVE. THE POLL STAGNATION, UNABLE TO BE BROKEN FOR MANY WEEKS, HAS ALSO PLAYED ITS PART - KALUKIN CONTINUES: “Therefore, it should not be surprising that the unconventional move with AgroUnia was met with almost stoic acceptance. Although it is a somewhat desperate step by Tusk. In a way, he has concocted an ersatz of the grand bloc for his voters, which he himself failed to achieve. The poll stagnation, which has been unyielding for many weeks, has also played its part. The situation cried out for breaking the routine and surprising with something. However, there is little tactical depth to be found in co-opting AgroUnia. It was simply available after Kołodziejczak’s talks with Trzecia Droga failed”.

-- AGROUNIA IS A HIGHLY RISKY PARTNER. WITH AN UNCLEAR PROFILE AND ROOTS, BURDENED BY CONTACTS WITH THE FAR-RIGHT, DRAGGING BEHIND IT AN INDIGESTIBLE LOBBYING TAIL OF THE FUR INDUSTRY - WRITES KALUKIN IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “AgroUnia is a highly risky partner. With an unclear profile and roots, burdened by contacts with the far-right, dragging behind it an indigestible lobbying tail of the fur industry for more progressive voters. With a young leader who undoubtedly knows how to make noise around himself, but despite everything, with negligible support. On the other hand, giving Kołodziejczak the lead position in Konin seems rational, especially since it is a Civic Platform barren land without a natural leader and strong structures. Besides him, a few other AgroUnia members will run, although it seems unlikely they will win mandates (perhaps except for the candidate in fourth place in Rzeszów). Civic Platform members assure that Kołodziejczak's team has been thoroughly vetted by party ‘intelligence’ and nothing compromising should emerge about them during the campaign. But is that sufficient guarantee?”

-- BY CONTROLLING THE CLUB, HE WILL CERTAINLY MANAGE TO PACIFY ANY POTENTIAL ACCOUNTING TENDENCIES - CLAIMS KALUKIN: “If Tusk believes the runoff can be won, he will likely announce after October 15th that we have only fought the first battle, but the war is still ongoing. Then, by controlling the club, he will surely manage to pacify any potential tendencies towards settling scores. It's a different matter if he concludes that the prospects for ultimate victory are rather slim. Will he then take the risk of continued leadership, staking his entire authority? Or perhaps he will step down, leaving this problem to Trzaskowski? There are no answers to these questions today. All that is known is that the former prime minister has secured various options for himself”.
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2224358,1,jak-donald-tusk-ukladal-listy-wyborcze-nikomu-nie-przyszlo-do-glowy-protestowac.read

-- SEALING THE BORDER SO THAT ALMOST NO ONE CAN CROSS IT WOULD HALT THIS ENTIRE PROCEDURE - ERNEST SKALSKI IN GW, IN POLEMICS WITH JANE RADOMSKI: “Sealing the border so that almost no one can cross it would halt this entire procedure. Lukashenka would have no reason to bring migrants, and there would be no more tragedies on the Polish side of the border. This is what constitutes a slap in the face to human rights defenders for Radomski. And yet, true human rights defenders should support an end to this nightmare. If the border were sealed, only leftists like Radomski would feel wronged, lacking migrants to demonstrate how much they defend their rights”.
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30106197,obroncy-praw-czlowieka-powinni-popierac-uszczelnienie-granicy.html

-- THE STATEMENT THAT THE REFERENDUM IS A FARCE DOES NOT SETTLE THE MATTER, BECAUSE THEN THE DOUBT ARISES AS TO WHY THE CRITIC IS TRYING TO DIVERT ATTENTION FROM THESE TOPICS - TOMASZ SAWCZUK IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “Regarding the construction of the referendum, three more remarks are worth adding. Firstly, although the questions are formulated in bad faith, they concern real issues that can evoke certain social emotions. Therefore, the statement that the referendum is a farce does not settle the matter, because then the doubt arises as to why the critic is trying to divert attention from these topics”.

-- MERELY EXPLAINING HOW TO VOTE IN THE ELECTION, NOT THE REFERENDUM, CAN BE SEEN AS A COMPLICATED TECHNICAL MATTER AND NEGATIVELY IMPACT VOTER MOBILIZATION - WRITES SAWCZUK FURTHER IN KL: “Moreover, merely explaining how to vote in the election, and not in the referendum, can seem like a convoluted technical issue and negatively affect voter mobilization. In addition, refusing to vote in the referendum at the polling station will be perceived as a public declaration against PiS, which may also discourage some citizens, especially in smaller towns. In turn, some engaged opposition voters will certainly figure out the technicalities themselves or with the help of NGOs, which may be enough to significantly reduce turnout in the referendum”.

-- TUSK HAS CHOSEN A MIX OF NEUTRALIZATION AND CONCEALMENT STRATEGIES - STATES SAWCZUK: “It appears that Donald Tusk has chosen a mix of neutralization and concealment strategies. On the day of announcing Civic Platform's election lists, he stated in a single sentence, in a priestly style: ‘I solemnly annul this referendum.’ Tusk's position is as follows: the referendum is not the problem, PiS is.”
https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2023/08/21/sawczuk-referendum-pis-u-jak-powinna-odpowiedziec-opozycja/

-- KOBOSKO: AS POLISH 2050 POLITICIANS, WE WILL NOT PARTICIPATE IN THE REFERENDUM, WE WILL NOT TAKE VOTING BALLOTS - 300LIVE: http://300polityka.pl/live/2023/08/23

-- BEHIND MARCIN MATCZAK’S CALL FOR RESPECT FOR THE COMMON PEOPLE, LIES THE CONVICTION THAT “RIGHT-WINGNESS” IS THE SAME SOCIAL PROBLEM AS POVERTY OR ALCOHOLISM - JAN MACIEJEWSKI IN RZ: “Matczak’s column is, however, revealing from one perspective, though rather against his will. The more care and understanding the professor shows towards the ‘sołtys of Lublin region’, the quintessence of a boorish Pole, the more strongly he shows him rudimentary respect, which is supposed to open the opposition's path to power, the more glaringly his deterministically constructed vision of society becomes apparent. If you are an uneducated lout and boor, you go to church and vote for right-wing parties. And when you advance in life and intellectually, you begin to profess liberal-left orthodoxy and vote anti-PiS. In short – the elite has only one name; just as does boorishness. As if the differences were not at the level of values or beliefs, but only economic status. The base completely determines the ideological superstructure”.
https://www.rp.pl/publicystyka/art38988621-maciejewski-pany-i-chamy-marcina-matczaka

-- BIRTHDAYS: Antoni Mężydło, Radosław Gawlik, Marian Krzaklewski, Waldemar Dąbrowski, Marek Tałasiewicz, Lech Garlicki, Michał Potocki.

Łukasz Mężyk