state of play: 07/08/2023

STATE OF PLAY: Wielowieyska: Tusk is playing with fire because without risky moves, he won't climb higher; Zaremba: They are even ready to appeal to fears of 'outsiders'

Łukasz Mężyk

-- SATURDAY'S POLITICAL AGENDA: FAMILY PICNIC WITH KACZYŃSKI AND PIS LEADERS, TUSK AT THE MODERN CONVENTION, LEWICA ON THE INDICTMENT OF PIS POLITICIANS, HOŁOWNIA AND KOSINIAK WITH YOUTH, SASIN ON THE KGHM COMPETITION FOR OSP - 300LIVE: http://300polityka.pl/live/2023/07/08/

-- RUSSIA IS ALLEGEDLY LOSING THE WAR AND MAY SOON FALL APART, WHILE ITS RULER IS STILL TRYING TO HOLD ONTO HIS ALREADY CRUMBLING THRONE. HOWEVER, IF WE LOOK COOLY AT THE FACTS, BOTH THE FORMER AND THE LATTER SEEM MORE LIKE WISHFUL THINKING THAN POLITICAL REALITY – WRITES JAN ROKITA IN TEOLOGIA POLITYCZNA.

-- IF WE ARE TO PASS ANY JUDGMENT BASED ON THE COURSE OF THE PRIGOZHIN REBELLION, THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT THE TSARIST THRONE, RECENTLY A BIT SHAKEN, HAS NOW STOOD FIRMER ON ITS LEGS – ROKITA CONTINUES IN TEOLOGIA POLITYCZNA: “And especially there are no signs that Prigozhin's rebellion has in any way shaken Putin's throne. First and foremost, because as is now clear, it was not a rebellion against Putin for a moment, but an operation to curb the dangerously growing influence of the arrogant condottiero, provoked by the ruler of Russia himself. And it was a fully successful operation, because thanks to the political dexterity of the Kremlin, the condottiero was neutralized without civil war and basically without casualties. And expelling him and his rebellious army to Belarus looks like a Kremlin masterpiece, regardless of whether such a scenario was conceived by the ruler of Russia himself or by one of his supporters. Of course, no one can be certain that as a result of some conspiracy, the Kremlin tsar will not suddenly be removed from power tomorrow. But if we are to pass any judgment based on the course of the Prigozhin rebellion, there is no doubt that the tsarist throne, recently a bit shaken, has now stood firmer on its legs.”
https://teologiapolityczna.pl/jan-rokita-wzmocniony-carski-tron-1

-- I DON'T THINK SUCH AN "APOLOGY" CAN BE DEMANDED RIGHT NOW. BUT THE QUESTION IS ALSO OPEN WHETHER A FORCED "APOLOGY" MAKES SENSE AT ALL – ANNA WYLEGAŁA IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “It is difficult to argue with a historian who is in uniform and defends his homeland with a rifle in hand. I would like the Ukrainian "apology" to finally be simply stated (not in the incanted formula "we forgive and ask for forgiveness"). I don't think such an "apology" can be demanded right now. But the question is also open whether a forced "apology" makes any sense at all, and whether there is ever a good time to admit guilt.”
https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/jak-dzis-rozmawiac-o-zbrodni-wolynskiej-183854

-- LET US ARM OURSELVES WITH PATIENCE. LET US TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE OPPORTUNITY THAT A COMMON CAUSE GIVES US – BOGUSŁAW CHRABOTA IN RZ: “No crime can be forgotten, because that is a violation of memory. However, let reconciliation become part of memory. Today, we are much closer to it with the Ukrainians than years ago. Let us arm ourselves with patience. Let us take advantage of the opportunity that a common cause gives us. We are so close to each other.”
https://www.rp.pl/plus-minus/art38703171-boguslaw-chrabota-wolyn-i-pamiec-zbiorowa

-- ADAM MICHNIK SAYS GIERTYCH DESERVES A QUANTUM OF TRUST – IN AN INTERVIEW WITH DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “It is not I who will decide on Roman Giertych's candidacy, that is a decision for democratic opposition politicians. However, I believe that Giertych has earned a certain quantum of trust over the past few years. Perhaps not one hundred percent, but still. I am convinced that people like him are needed by the opposition.”

-- I SAY WHAT I THINK. AND LET THEM ATTACK ME NOW FOR DEFENDING ROMAN GIERTYCH – MICHNIK CONTINUES AT WIELOWIEYSKA'S: “If that happens, we will have a conversation about Giertych going astray. I understand that my view on this matter will cause opposition, that I am going against the current. But I was attacked for defending General Jaruzelski, I was attacked for defending John Paul II. I regret neither. I say what I think. And let them attack me now for defending Roman Giertych.”

-- I MAY NEVER HAVE BEEN AS WITTY AS GIERTYCH, BUT I MUST SAY THAT MY ATTITUDE TOWARDS LGBT WAS ALSO DIFFERENT – MICHNIK ADMITS: “He is on his way. Perhaps in two years he will mature to partnership unions. Poland is changing in these matters. 30 years ago, Equality Parades were unimaginable, today they are. Many people have changed their point of view on this matter. I may never have been as witty as Giertych, but I must say that my attitude towards LGBT was also different.”
https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,29934744,adam-michnik-byc-moze-za-dwa-lata-roman-giertych-dojrzeje-i.html

-- THAT IS WHY TUSK IS PLAYING WITH FIRE,provoking indignation from some elites, because he knows that without risky moves, his ratings will not go up – DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “In June, Civic Coalition (KO) grew in polls, and its distance from PiS significantly decreased. However, when counting votes into seats, the opposition does not have a majority in the Sejm. This could change if it overtakes PiS in the polls. That is why Tusk is playing with fire, provoking indignation from some elites, because he knows that without risky moves, his ratings will not go up.”

-- I DID NOT LIKE THE BEGINNING OF TUSK'S SPEECH, because in a politician's statements there cannot be even a shadow of animosity towards foreigners who legally work here. TUSK, INCIDENTALLY, DID NOT REMAIN DEAF TO CRITICISM, as he posted another video on Tuesday – WIELOWIEYSKA CONTINUES IN GW: “Will Tusk harm himself with this video, though? He linked the growing number of workers from Asia and Africa to the events in France and gave the impression that these workers are some great threat to Poland. This is unfair to these people. Moreover, in France, we are talking about a community of millions and subsequent generations of immigrants, while in Poland, it is only about two or three hundred thousand people, some of whom will return home. That is why I did not like the beginning of Tusk's speech, because in a politician's statements there cannot be even a shadow of animosity towards foreigners who legally work here. Tusk, incidentally, did not remain deaf to criticism, as he posted another video on Tuesday, in which he places great emphasis on respect for people regardless of their skin color or religion.”

-- I WILL RISK THE THESIS THAT KO WILL NOT LOSE FROM THIS SPEECH BY ITS LEADER. POLLS SHOW THAT MOST POLES FEAR SCENARIOS LIKE THOSE IN FRANCE – WIELOWIEYSKA CONTINUES IN GW: “I will risk the thesis that KO will not lose from this speech by its leader. Polls show that most Poles fear scenarios like those in France. And Tusk emphasized that bringing in people for work must be done under strict control, while the government is failing to manage it. KO voters are not xenophobes, but they feel a very similar fear to PiS voters, although they are ashamed to admit it. They realize that mass immigration creates problems with assimilation, and if such a wealthy country as France is struggling with it on average, then the question arises whether we will manage. The disgusting propaganda of PiS cannot mean that we give up a serious debate and ignore the experiences of other countries.”
https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,29939241,metoda-tuska-dziala-kaczynski-sie-przestraszyl-rzad-wycofuje.html

-- SIKORSKI ALWAYS WENT WITH THE FLOW. AS IN SO MANY OTHER MATTERS – PIOTR ZAREMBA IN INTERIA: “The reaction to the Migration Pact shows that where the expectations and demands of Eurocrats are concerned, one cannot expect the slightest lack of correctness from Tusk's party. And it's a pity. Because Sikorski had many years to initiate a 'non-racist discussion' on the phenomenon of immigration – both in Poland and in European forums, which he has access to. However, he never did. He always went with the flow. As in so many other matters.”

-- YES, THEY ARE EVEN READY TO APPEAL TO FEARS OF "STRANGERS", BECAUSE DEFEATING PIS IS PARAMOUNT. BUT THEN THEY WILL EASILY RENOUNCE THEIR OWN VIEWS – ZAREMBA CONTINUES IN INTERIA: “This is worth discussing with Tusk and Sikorski. But there is no way to do it. They, indeed, are ready to even appeal to fears of 'strangers', because defeating PiS is paramount. But then they will easily renounce their own views, their independent opinions. MEP Sikorski will stop explaining anything to the left, both Polish and European.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/zaremba/news-sikorski-chce-dyskutowac-o-imigracji-ale-w-jakim-celu,nId,6888071

-- IN PIS, THE BELIEF DOMINATES THAT EURORIES REALISTIC RIGHT-WING PARTIES WILL WIN IN MORE EUROPEAN COUNTRIES, WHICH WILL PUSH THE EU BACK TO THE OLD TRACKS OF A UNION OF FATHERS – PIOTR ZAREMBA IN RP: “It is possible that Kaczyński's camp is doomed to maneuver between boisterous rhetoric and real concessions. The belief dominates there that euro-realistic right-wing parties will win in more European countries, which will push the Union back to the old tracks of a union of fathers. But the example of Sweden or Italy under Meloni's rule shows that electoral changes do not necessarily mean an automatic alliance with Poland on every issue. And the myth of a Eurosceptic shift has appeared several times. And it usually did not pan out.”

-- IT IS WORTH REPEATING THAT THE BRUSSELS BUREAUCRACY, IRRITATED BY OUR SEPARATE OPINIONS ON MANY MATTERS, DOES NOT SEEK AGREEMENT AND SOMETIMES PROVOKES – ZAREMBA CONTINUES IN RP: “Suggesting greater caution to the United Right, offering them diplomatic methods makes no sense during a campaign. It is worth repeating that the Brussels bureaucracy, irritated by our separate opinion on many matters, does not seek agreement and sometimes provokes.”

-- IF A CENTRE-LEFT COALITION COMES TO POWER IN POLAND, REGARDLESS OF TUSK'S CURRENT POPULISM, IT WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT GERMANY'S CENTRALIZING PLANS – WRITES ZAREMBA IN RP: “At the same time, PiS is right about one thing. If a centre-left coalition comes to power in Poland, regardless of Tusk's current populism, it will probably support Germany's centralizing plans. However, this does not necessarily mean their full realization. In a cumbersome Union that uses unclear norms, and sometimes only slogans, nothing happens completely, and no one fully wins.”
https://www.rp.pl/plus-minus/art38703111-konflikt-o-imigrantow-pisowska-obstrukcja-unijna-presja

-- A SPECTER HAUNTS POLAND – THE SPECTER OF KONFEDERACJA. ALL THE POWERS OF OLD POLAND HAVE UNITED IN A SACRED EFFORT TO HELP THIS SPECTER: TELEVISION AND TIKTOK, KACZYŃSKI AND TUSK, THE STRONG TOGETHER RADICALS AND LIBERAL JOURNALISTS – GALOPUJĄCY MAJOR IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA.

-- EVEN JOANNA SOLSKA FROM „POLITYKA”. RUMOR HAS IT THAT SHE CAN REALLY ADD FUEL TO THE FIRE WITH KORWIN. THIS TIME SHE HAS SURPASSED HERSELF – MAJOR CONTINUES: “It is also not true that excessively generous social spending 'drives inflation, which is record-high in our country'. PiS introduced the first 500+ program in 2016. In the following years, inflation was around 3 percent, i.e., less than under the Civic Platform government. What's more, in 2020, when the program was extended to the first child, inflation was at a record low of 2.4 percent. Just look at the charts and overlay the relevant dates. The inflation surge began in 2021 and increased in the following year. One can, of course, argue that for four years inflation did not affect the introduction of 500+, and then suddenly, click, it noticed social benefits and started to catch up. But then one would have to assume that Kaczyński introduced 500+ throughout Europe, because – surprise – inflation shot up everywhere. Because the pandemic broke out, and then the war.”
https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/polska-w-ruinie-przez-500/

-- BIRTHDAYS: Mirosława Stachowiak-Różecka, Mirosław Drzewiecki, Stanisław Koziej, Jerzy Kopaczewski, Paweł Pudłowski. SUNDAY: Włodzimierz Puzyna, Mieczysław Łuczak.

Łukasz Mężyk