state of play: 04/18/2023

STATE OF PLAY: Sroczyński: When it seems the debate has hit rock bottom, you can count on a tweet from Giertych or Matecki; Sasin in Chile on the legal environment for KGHM

Łukasz Mężyk

-- MORE LEOPARDS ARE GOING TO WAR. AND UKRAINIAN TANK CREWS ARE TRAINING IN POLAND - SITUATION ON THE FRONT IN COLONEL PIOTR LEWANDOWSKI'S REPORT FOR OKO.PRESS: "Ukrainian crews who are to take over Spanish Leopards are training in Poland, at the training ground in Świętoszów. In total, ten to fifteen thousand Ukrainian soldiers are currently undergoing rotational training in NATO countries. The program includes both combined arms tactics and training for junior commanders – squads and platoons.

-- UKRAINE WILL REMAIN WITH THE STRATEGY OF WEAKENING THE CAPABILITIES OF THE RUSSIAN ARMY, WHICH IS SUFFERING SERIOUS LOSSES IN EXHAUSTING ATTACKS ON FORTIFIED URBAN AREAS. THE BAKHMUT AREA WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS OF MAIN EFFORT FOR BOTH SIDES OF THE CONFLICT - writes Colonel Lewandowski in his forecast.
https://oko.press/wiecej-leopardow-jedzie-na-wojne-a-ukrainscy-czolgisci-szkola-sie-w-polsce-sytuacja-na-froncie

-- THE RUSSIANS HAVE APPARENTLY MASTERED PRODUCTION, WHICH IS NOT GOOD NEWS, IN THIS WAY TANKS CAN BE SENT TO UKRAINE INFINITELY - MICHAŁ FISZER ON THE TYGODNIK POLITYKA PORTAL: "There are a lot of T-90Ms on the front, so at least some must come from current production. And although both they and the increasingly frequent T-80BWMS appear in a somewhat simplified version (e.g., without the Sosna-U aiming and observation system with imported electro-optical components), the Russians have apparently mastered production, relying on components they can produce or acquire despite the embargo. This is not good news; in this way, tanks can be sent to Ukraine infinitely. The T-90M was even issued to the Wagner Group, heavily depleted, but still significant."
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/swiat/2209310,1,418-dzien-wojny-bron-zapalajaca-w-arsenale-rosjan-ten-konflikt-jest-niesamowicie-okrutny.read

-- WHEN YOU THINK YOU'VE HEARD NOTHING MORE STUPID, AND THE POLISH DEBATE HAS REACHED SUCH A BOTTOM THAT THERE'S NOTHING TO KNOCK ON FROM BELOW, YOU CAN ALWAYS COUNT ON GIERYCH OR MATECKI WRITING A TWEET AND THE FUN STARTS ALL OVER AGAIN - GRZEGORZ SROCZYŃSKI ON GAZETA.PL: "First you think: these are unserious people, it's not worth reading or commenting on them, but unfortunately, you are forced to deal with it anyway, because after a while, the entire opposition repeats Giertych's nonsense, and the entire PiS party speaks with Matecki's rhetoric. Of course, it's not about the names; they are merely personifications of five toxic traits that poison Polish politics."

-- WE ARE DEALING HERE WITH THE TOXIC POISONING OF OPPOSITION PUBLIC OPINION WITH A CONSPIRACY THEORY PULLED STRAIGHT FROM ONE'S OWN NOSE - SROCZYŃSKI CONTINUES ON GAZETA.PL: "We are dealing here with the toxic poisoning of opposition public opinion with a conspiracy theory pulled straight from one's own nose. In a normal situation, one would expect the opposition's opinion to laugh it off, and Tusk to announce that someone like that would be removed from the KO's future senatorial list. Nothing of the sort. Instead, conspiracy nonsense – meaning 'telling the truth like a man' – is rewarded."

-- EVERY MORNING ON ONE RADIO STATION, ONE WEBSITE, ONE NEWSPAPER, POLITICIANS Shamelessly STEAL HECTARES OF OUR TIME IN COMMENTARY SLOTS, SAYING ALMOST NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL - SROCZYŃSKI CONTINUES: "Every morning on one radio station, one website, one newspaper, politicians shamelessly steal hectares of our time in commentary slots, saying almost nothing substantial. And then the ritual repeats in the evening commentary slots. For journalism students, as a warning against pointlessly studying this profession, one could play the last conversation between Wróbel and Brejza from Poranek TOK-FM; the journalist bends over backwards, but only elicits statements that flow over us like lukewarm water. What will you do after the elections if you win? 'There will be an influx of billions of euros, wise economic steps based on these funds, the beginning of the fight against inflation and high prices.' And any specifics? 'Well, the concrete step is, umm, very measurable.' But what will you do in the first hundred days? 'A team of lawyers is working on the Act of Democratic Renewal.' 'Steps will be taken to depoliticize the judiciary.' But how? You won't do anything in a hundred days because you'd need the president's signature. 'Mr. Editor, there is such a thing as the will of the citizens, and it is expressed in elections; citizens expect a return to values.' But how, if Duda doesn't sign? 'This needs to be sorted out, and further bills will be submitted.' 'I hope the result of Civic Coalition will allow for the restoration of values in politics.'"

-- YOU CAN DESPERATELY TRY TO MAKE JOKES LIKE MAZUREK SO IT'S BEARABLE TO LISTEN TO OR WATCH, THEN STILL NOTHING COMES OF IT, BUT AT LEAST IT'S SOMETIMES AMUSING - SROCZYŃSKI CONTINUES: "Inviting politicians to the media is a real nightmare for journalists, working in harmful and toxic conditions; within the first minute of the interview, one is served the 'message of the day,' or a handful of stale jokes already known from Twitter because some party strategist or agency serving the party wrote them at six in the morning. On top of that, there's the obligatory barrage of threats against opponents who are destroying Poland and are generally Hitlers or Bolsheviks, Russian agents, and whatever else. From this boring spectacle of Polish politics, journalists can't salvage anything anymore; at best, they can desperately try to make jokes like Mazurek so it's bearable to listen to or watch; then still nothing comes of it, but at least it's sometimes amusing."

-- THE ONLY COMFORT IS THAT WE LIVE IN A TURNING POINT FOR EUROPE AND AS A FRONTLINE COUNTRY SUPERVISED BY THE USA, WE ARE TOO IMPORTANT TO BE ALLOWED TO DROWN IN JINGOISM AND PARANOIA - SROCZYŃSKI CONTINUES IN GAZETA.PL: "We have a brutal few months of election campaign ahead of us, where the above noble qualities will be cultivated with exceptional intensity, and toxic poisons will be poured by the bucket. The only comfort is that we live in a turning point for Europe and as a frontline country supervised by the USA, we are too important to be allowed to drown in jingoism and paranoia. Before World War II, a similar disintegration of the state and degradation of the political class led to tragedy; now, they essentially mean nothing. The Polish economy will not be ruined by PiS or any other government, because economic conditions in Germany or China and the incredible flexibility of Polish companies have a greater influence on it than the Sejm, Glapiński, or any of the ministries. As for our security – it depends solely on the United States, not on who governs here and what they say on the international stage. Polish politics, in a sense, does not exist; it has condemned itself to non-existence and insignificance through toxic disputes. The great geopolitical shift is simply happening before the eyes of our politicians, who pretend to have their own agency in all of this through petty arguments because they have no other ideas. The international situation has made Poland a country managed by geopolitics, not by local elites, and sometimes one can think that this is a good thing."
https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,29668742,piec-rzeczy-ktore-zatruwaja-polska-polityke-a-prace-dziennikarza.html

-- PIS IS FALLING IN POLLS, AND KONFEDERACJA IS SLIGHTLY RISING. AS A RESULT, BOTH GROUPS CAN TOGETHER COUNT ON NINE MORE SEATS THAN THE OPPOSITION, WHICH WOULD ALLOW THEM TO GOVERN AFTER THE ELECTIONS - ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA IN RZ: "The rise in Konfederacja's ratings still gives this party the possibility of forming a government with PiS. The party of President Kaczyński is losing 1.3 percentage points compared to last month (receiving 33%), and Konfederacja is gaining 1.4 percentage points (10.4%). According to a seat allocation simulation taking into account electoral districts, a coalition of these groups would obtain 239 seats – in March, it was 240 seats in the Sejm. The leading party on the opposition side is still Civic Coalition (24.8%), which gives it 134 seats."
https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art38335701-na-horyzoncie-majaczy-koalicja-pis-i-konfederacji

-- DANCING AROUND KONFEDERACJA - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: "But it's not just commentators who are fixated on Konfederacja. One might get the impression that all politics revolves around it – especially the two largest parties. Donald Tusk posted a video online last week in which he quoted farmers' words: 'the worst filth is entering our country.' He also quoted a warning about worms, bacteria, and fungi in grain from Ukraine. Thus, the leader of PO, which accuses PiS of being pro-Russian and pretending to help Ukraine, criticizes the influx of agricultural products into Poland, which was ordered by the European Union and was intended to help the fighting Ukrainians. Of course, Tusk wants to hit PiS here, ending the video by saying that the government is run by idiots and thieves, but at the same time, he flirts with Konfederacja: I can criticize contaminated grain from Ukraine."

-- IT CAN IMPOSE TOPICS ON THE LARGEST PARTIES - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI CONTINUES: "I doubt, however, that these dances of the largest parties around Konfederacja will yield results. Paradoxically, they can only help it because they show that it can impose topics on the largest parties. For a party that doesn't even have a dozen representatives in the Sejm, this is quite a success."
https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art38335731-michal-szuldrzynski-tance-wokol-konfederacji

-- EMBARGO ON UKRAINIAN FOOD ENDS "POLAND'S FIVE MINUTES" - JĘDRZEJ BIELECKI IN RZ: "The embargo on Ukrainian food ends 'Poland's five minutes' – the period when, thanks to its geopolitical position after the outbreak of war in Ukraine, our country could have become one of the main players in Brussels. For PiS, saving opinion polls proved more important."

-- PERHAPS IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE NOT ONLY TO REVIVE THE WEIMAR TRIANGLE BUT EVEN TO MAKE IT A KIND OF DIRECTORY OF A UNITED EUROPE - BIELECKI CONTINUES: "Polish authorities could have used this political capital to break the rule of law dispute and release streams of aid for Poland. Such a move would transform our country into a leader of Central Europe, as the Czechs and Baltic states, which want to remain democracies but are afraid of Russia, would automatically recognize Warsaw as the best advocate for their interests. Poland could also much more effectively push Ukraine towards EU membership, which would change our country's geopolitical position. Given the growing differences between Germany and France, it might have been possible not only to revive the Weimar Triangle but even to make it a kind of directorate of a united Europe. However, the grain crisis closes all these possibilities."
https://www.rp.pl/publicystyka/art38331811-jedrzej-bielecki-embargo-na-ukrainska-zywnosc-polska-nie-ma-polityki-zagranicznej

-- INSTEAD OF BREAKING EU LAW, THE GOVERNMENT COULD HAVE REACHED AN AGREEMENT WITH BRUSSELS LONG AGO - MARCEL WANDAS IN OKO.PRESS: "However, Poland has never taken advantage of its rights, although Commissioner for Agriculture Janusz Wojciechowski announced several times that if a member state submitted such a request, he would support it in the EU forum."
https://oko.press/blokada-zboza-z-ukrainy-zamiast-lamac-prawo-ue-rzad-juz-dawno-mogl-dogadac-sie-z-bruksela

-- BRUSSELS IS WAITING FOR NOW - TOMASZ BIELECKI ON THE TYGODNIK POLITYKA PORTAL: "Moreover, the duration of the Polish-Hungarian embargo is so short (until June 30) that Brussels would not have enough time to properly use its disciplinary procedures. However, the EC reminds that it is finalizing preparations for a second aid package for farmers affected by the oversupply of grain from Ukraine. According to unofficial information, it may amount to at least 75 million euros for five EU countries, of which about 30 million would go to Poland (the first package was approved at the end of March). In addition, in March, the EC agreed to PLN 600 million in public aid for wheat and corn producers in Poland."
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/swiat/2209300,1,polska-ws-zboza-z-ukrainy-naruszyla-reguly-ue-co-zrobi-bruksela.read

-- WE ARE STRONG IN COPPER TODAY, AND THEREFORE WE WILL BE SAFE AND STRONG IN ENERGY. WE WILL BE ABLE TO THINK ABOUT OUR ENERGY SECURITY AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF KGHM AS A COMPANY IMPORTANT TO POLAND AND THE WORLD WITH HOPE AND CALM - JACEK SASIN IN CHILE: "We have received assurances from the Minister of Finance in Chile that our postulates will be taken into account and that new proposals will be announced soon. A cap on taxation will be introduced, especially for companies like the Sierra Gorda mine, which has low copper content in the ore. The sum of all taxes will not be able to exceed 50% of profits."

-- SASIN ON DEFENDING KGHM'S INTERESTS: "We came to Santiago because the Chilean government planned unfavorable tax changes, unfavorable for KGHM, unfavorable for the Sierra Gorda mine, which, I remind you, is the largest Polish foreign investment, not only KGHM's foreign investment."

-- SASIN ON POSSIBLE INVESTMENTS IN CHILE IF THE LEGAL ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT DETERIORATE: "The final decision on the implementation of the investment depends on whether and to what extent the company's economic situation will change as a result of new law and tax reform in Chile."
https://www.gov.pl/web/aktywa-panstwowe/wicepremier-jacek-sasin-rozmawiamy-z-chilijskim-rzadem-na-temat-nowej-reformy-podatkowej

-- BIRTHDAY: Jan Rulewski.

Łukasz Mężyk