state of play: 10/26/2020
POLITICAL LANDSCAPE: Twardoch on 'Neoliberal dinosaurs' claiming it's a protest for the old Constitutional Tribunal that cemented an ultra-conservative compromise; Karnowski asks: How to demand a conservative agenda if it lacks support?
-- SE REPORTS ON KACZYŃSKI'S QUARANTINE END: “Finally! Just on Saturday, Jarosław Kaczyński (71) stealthily slipped out of his house to work in the Lech Kaczyński Presidential Memory Chamber, adjacent to his villa. He was 'armed' with gloves and a mask. But on Sunday, the party leader – without gloves – went to mass at church. This means one thing – he has officially ended his self-quarantine!”
https://www.se.pl/wiadomosci/polityka/kaczynski-przylapany-w-kosciele-jeden-szczegol-zastanawia-juz-sie-nie-boi-aa-Zbcq-r2b6-JkoP.html
-- AMID THE PANDEMIC, THE AUTHORITIES CYNICALLY REVIVE THE ABORTION DISPUTE, STOP SETTING POLAND ON FIRE - FAKT'S FRONT PAGE WITH PHOTOS OF KACZYŃSKI, PRZYŁĘBSKA, AND MORAWIECKI.
-- WOMEN SHOULD DECIDE - KOŻUCHOWSKA ON SE'S FRONT PAGE.
-- NEW COVID WARDS FILLED WITHIN ONE DAY - NEW TRYBUNA OPOLSKA FRONT PAGE.
-- IF THE CORONAVIRUS DOESN'T SLOW DOWN BY FRIDAY, A FULL LOCKDOWN CAN BE EXPECTED - DGP (Marek Chądzyński, Patrycja Otto, Grzegorz Osiecki, Tomasz Żółciak): “If the coronavirus doesn’t slow down by Friday, a full lockdown can be expected – our government sources indicate. This is the worst-case scenario for businesses. It could mean sending the entire education system to remote learning or a ban on movement outside of commuting to work – says one of our interviewees. Everything depends on whether the effects of the restrictions from mid-October become noticeable: the expansion of red zones, sending youth to e-lessons. In other words, whether we see a slowdown in the increase of infections.”
-- WE EXPECT AN AVERAGE OF 20,000 CASES DAILY - DGP INSIDER FROM THE GOVERNMENT: “The regulations introduced on Saturday show that the government is scared by the rapid increase in coronavirus cases. – We have exponential growth, we expect an average of over 20,000 new cases daily this week – a person from the government tells us. If this pace doesn't decrease, the Prime Minister may decide on further restrictions by the end of the week. – It could mean sending the rest of the schools to remote learning, a ban on movement outside of commuting to work – we hear. – If the coronavirus doesn't slow down by Friday, a full lockdown can be expected – emphasizes another of our interviewees. This is all the more possible because next weekend is All Saints' Day – a time when most people visit cemeteries and families.”
-- BETWEEN 25,000 AND 45,000 CASES IN THE WORST-CASE SCENARIO DESCRIBED BY DGP: “The government doesn't expect the introduction of restrictions to reduce the number of cases next week, as the incubation period of the virus is, on average, 4-5 days. We will see the effects of the restrictions by the end of the week. – Therefore, decisions will be made based on the trend, but also on observations of what is happening in other countries – emphasizes a government official. Last week, the daily increase in cases ranged between 10% and 20%. If this cannot be reduced, by the end of this week we could have between 25,000 and nearly 45,000 new daily infections. – We are not counting on a reduction in the number of infections, but on a slower increase – explains our interviewee.”
https://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/wydarzenia/artykuly/7987770,koronawirus-covid-19-epidemia-lockdown-szkoly-restauracje-pieniadze.html
-- ASYMPTOMATIC PRESIDENT DUDA IN ISOLATION - GAZETA WYBORCZA headline.
-- THE PRESIDENTIAL COUPLE IS IN ISOLATION AT THE PROMNIK RESIDENCE - AGATA KONDZIŃSKA IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “According to our information, the president and his wife are not at the Presidential Palace but are isolated at the Promnik residence in Ruda Tarnowska. The villa is surrounded by forest, has a swimming pool, a gym, a tennis court, and a helipad for the presidential helicopter – 'Super Express' described two years ago. The tabloid reported that it is Andrzej Duda's favorite residence.”
-- SZCZERSKI WANTED TO BUY RAPID TESTS BUT THE HEAD OF THE CHANCELLERY REFUSED - KONDZIŃSKA CONTINUES IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “We unofficially asked the president's associates when Andrzej Duda was last tested. We were told that it was primarily during foreign trips. Most recently, the president had a test before flying to Estonia and probably after returning. – There was an idea for the Presidential Chancellery to buy rapid tests, but the head of the chancellery did not agree due to their low reliability – a person from the Palace tells us. The idea was championed by presidential minister Krzysztof Szczerski. – The Prime Minister's Chancellery has such tests, we were tested like that at Trump's – adds our interviewee.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,26433957,bezobjawowy-prezydent-andrzej-duda-w-izolacji.html
-- THIS FIRE MUST BE EXTINGUISHED IMMEDIATELY - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI AND BOGUSŁAW CHRABOTA ON RZ'S FRONT PAGE: “But this is a path to nowhere. This fire must be extinguished immediately. The responsibility lies with the rulers. The Constitutional Tribunal's verdict cannot be overturned. But if PiS does not want to be seen as ayatollahs sentencing women to suffering, it should immediately propose legislation regarding the termination of pregnancy for embryopathological reasons. Doctors currently have the right to decide that a patient in brain death can be disconnected from life support. The situation of women whose unborn child, due to serious defects, cannot survive outside the mother's body should also be regulated. Until such regulations are clarified, an amendment should be quickly introduced, absolving doctors of criminal liability for terminating such pregnancies. The government should also propose a comprehensive support program for families with sick or disabled children.”
-- NOW IS NOT THE TIME FOR A CULTURE WAR - CONCLUSION OF THE RZ AUTHORS: “PiS must remember that today the game is not about its good ratings, but about preventing a devastating internal conflict from consuming Polish society. The peak of the pandemic is not the time to observe a culture war.”
https://www.rp.pl/Spor-o-aborcje/310259952-Po-wyroku-TK-ws-aborcji-Ten-pozar-trzeba-natychmiast-ugasic.html
-- STREET ANGER VERSUS PIS - RZ headline.
-- A PIŚ MP IN AGATA KONDZIŃSKA'S ARTICLE ABOUT THE ZCHN PATH THAT LED THE RIGHT ASTRAY: “Things have gone wrong; violating the 1990s compromise makes abortion a political topic again, fuel for the resurrection of the left. It's a wrong decision stemming from an internal war in our camp. Zbigniew Ziobro and his people elevated the fundamentalists in our environment; they are responsible for Ordo Iuris entering salons and becoming an important advisory voice – says one of the PiS politicians. In his opinion, PiS has 'embarked on the ZChN path, which once led the right astray.' – It's not that the majority of our voters support radical solutions. The majority wanted to maintain the status quo. At meetings with voters, someone associated with Radio Maryja always stands up and asks about a complete abortion ban, but that's a minority – he adds.”
-- KACZYŃSKI IS LOSING SOCIAL HEARING - A PIŚ MP TELLS KONDZIŃSKA IN OFF: “Supporters of a more moderate course are not satisfied. – The Constitutional Tribunal's ruling is a misfortune; in the long term, it will lead to the de-Christianization of Poland, and in the short term, it's a significant political problem. Unfortunately, after the fur act, this is another wrong decision by Kaczyński; first, he drove farmers onto the streets, now women. He is losing social hearing – assesses a PiS MP.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,26434383,czy-dobra-zmiana-udlawi-sie-aborcja-niepokoj-w-obozie-dobrej.html
-- ORDINARY PEOPLE ARE ON THE STREETS, NOT ANY NEO-BOLSHEVIKS - SZCZEPAN TWARDOCH ON FB: “Terrified conservative publicists are today spinning insane visions of neobolshevik conspiracies, bloody revolutionaries with revolvers in hand. No, gentlemen, Bolshevik conspiracies and revolutionaries with pistols are in my novels; here on the street are ordinary people who simply disagree with what your favorites have tried to orchestrate here. Are the pissed-off farmers also 'extreme leftists'?”
-- THIS LEFT GETS LESS THAN THE REPRESENTATIVE TEAM OF GARDENERS WOULD GET, ALTHOUGH KONIECZNY, GOSEK, AND ZANDBERG ARE DOING A GOOD JOB - TWARDOCH CONTINUES: “It would be nice to have a left in Poland from right-wing fantasies, but we have a left, which, alongside a few people doing a good job (e.g., MPs Gosek-Popiołek, Konieczny, or Zandberg and others), includes a mass of sectarian fanatics from a vampire castle, mainly engaged in the ineffective 'canceling' of anyone they deem a fascist (which means everyone) and settling scores with each other over left-wing orthodoxy in increasingly esoteric versions. Not to mention the ordinary post-election careerists, who feel perfectly at home in Warsaw real estate. This left gets fewer poll points than a gardeners' representative team would, and it wouldn't achieve anything on its own if it didn't find the right language for the just anger of the silent majority, for which it deserves gratitude, because the anger is just and the cause is just.”
-- I DO NOT NECESSARILY SHARE THE BELIEF THAT THIS IS THE SPARK FOR MAJOR POLITICAL CHANGE - TWARDOCH CONTINUES: “I do not necessarily share the belief that these just protests will become the spark for some major political change. Tens of percent of practicing Polish Catholics will not simply disappear, just as, contrary to the fantasies of the Ordo Iuris crowd, the sixty-odd percent of people opposing the Constitutional Tribunal's ruling will not disappear, nor, for example, the slowly but steadily growing number of people supporting LGBT+ rights. This includes, believe it or not, practicing Catholics. I will be satisfied if human rights issues in Poland can be brought to the European norm, but this is undoubtedly not a process that will happen immediately.”
-- TWARDOCH ON "NEOLIBERAL DINOSAURS" CLAIMING IT'S A DEFENSE OF THE FORMER, LEGITIMATE CONSTITUTIONAL TRIBUNAL THAT CONCRETE-BLOCKED A CONSERVATIVE COMPROMISE: “I expect some concessions from the terrified government, after which the protests will lose their momentum. I also hope that various neoliberal dinosaurs will not co-opt this anger, who are already claiming here and there that these are protests in defense of the legitimate Constitutional Tribunal. Where 'GET OUT' fits into defending a legitimate Constitutional Tribunal, which, after all, very effectively cemented the earlier, extremely conservative 'compromise,' I truly don't know. What is certainly happening, and has been for some time, however, is the complete and swift erosion of the moral authority of the Catholic Church, as well as its downfall as an actor in Polish politics. They deserve nothing less.”
-- THEY CAN DO NOTHING BUT CAUSE UNREST AT SUCH A TIME - TWARDOCH ON THE RULING PARTY: “Meanwhile, we probably face another lockdown, much more terrifying than the spring one; we probably face the collapse of the hospital system; we face economic and humanitarian catastrophes. In a state made of wet paper, whose rulers have deemed it appropriate to incite social unrest precisely at such a moment, because they are incapable of anything other than managing ideological conflict. So, on a broader level, unfortunately, it doesn't look good. Hang in there in Poland. Greetings from Pilchowice.”
https://www.facebook.com/szczepan.twardoch
-- THE LOGIC OF ZOLL'S CONSTITUTIONAL TRIBUNAL CONTINUATION - PIOTR TRUDNOWSKI IN KLUB JAGELLOŃSKI: “A time of great worldview war awaits us. The Tribunal has revolutionized the existing provisions regarding abortion. However, when we look at the Tribunal's ruling from 1997 and the statements of its then-president, Professor Andrzej Zoll, we can find a certain logic of continuation in Thursday's verdict. This same eminent authority in constitutional law sharply criticized the changes that PiS made to the Tribunal […] However, this does not mean that Thursday's ruling particularly pleases me. Despite my clear opposition to the eugenic premise, I fear the logic of the pendulum.”
https://klubjagiellonski.pl/2020/10/24/trudnowski-decyzja-trybunalu-dotyczaca-aborcji-bedzie-podwazana-pis-powinien-w-inny-sposob-zniesc-przeslanke-eugeniczna/
-- SOMETHING BROKE, SOMETHING BEGAN - MACIEJ GDULA IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “A new generation is entering politics; that is clear. They bring not only a direct language. Politically, they are different from the older generation. They are not mobilized by fear, but by anger. They are certainly not motivated by a desire to return to 'the good old days and normality.' They want change because they live in the present, not in the past, and they don't like it. They also don't want to unite under sad slogans like 'funeral of democracy' or 'funeral of women's rights.' Their representatives are angry and will not let Kaczyński push them around. They curse to show that they will not be dominated. If someone doesn't find themselves in this, too bad. They have no intention of asking nicely.”
-- THEY WILL NOT NEGOTIATE WITH THE MAINSTREAM ON THE TERMS OF EXPRESSING ANGER - GDULA CONTINUES: “Now something has changed drastically. Change is always visible in language. 'GET OUT' chanted at demonstrations is a clear message that people are not afraid and will not be victims. They are angry and united. They will not negotiate with the mainstream on the terms of expressing their anger. If someone doesn't like it, even if they are not from PiS and have merits as an authority defending democracy, then sorry, but read the above.”
-- GDULA ON WHAT PROTESTERS THINK OF THE CIVIC PLATFORM - WHAT JERKS: “The demonstrations were mainly attended by people under 30. These are often people for whom Kaczyński has been the ruler since the beginning of their political awareness. He started ruling the younger ones when they were still in primary school. He began ruling the older ones when they were finishing university. For them, he is not a destroyer at all. He is simply a guy who wants to dictate their lives. He wants to force women to give birth to deformed children and stillborn fetuses. Seriously? And why isn't abortion legal up to 12 weeks anyway? Civic Platform didn't change that when they were in power? What jerks.”
https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/gdula-cos-jeblo-cos-sie-zaczelo/
-- DEMONS ON THE STREETS, IF YOU DON'T SHOW YOUR SUPPORT, THE VERDICT WILL BE A PYRRHIC VICTORY: “The moment is significant. Demons on the streets. Vulgar, aggressive. On the Christian side, including those who pushed for the abolition of eugenic abortion, at most discreet applause and a few clicks. And that's it. Yet, this is a test for all pro-life people. A test for all who previously cried out so loudly about the harm done to murdered children! If you don't move, if you don't show your support, then this verdict will indeed turn out to be a pyrrhic victory. Changes limited to the legal sphere, if suspended in a social vacuum, mean very little. Perhaps they mean nothing at all.”
-- HOW TO DEMAND THE PUSHING OF A CONSERVATIVE AGENDA IF IT DOES NOT RECEIVE SUPPORT - KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: “This is also a very important test in a broader perspective. How can we demand that the ruling camp and institutions like the Constitutional Tribunal push a conservative agenda, especially in difficult, sensitive areas, if they do not receive support in the moment of trial? How can one first attack the Constitutional Tribunal for alleged inaction on the issue of life, and then limit oneself to weak expressions of satisfaction?”
https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/523539-czy-mozna-wymagac-nie-dajac-wsparcia-w-chwili-takiej-proby
-- PROBABLE NEW LAW IN GOWIN'S VERSION, BECAUSE EVEN IF THE OPPOSITION WINS IN 2023, IT WOULD NEED A THREE-FIFTHS MAJORITY - TOMASZ SAWCZUK IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “At this point, I would like to consider only the political consequences of the current protests. First, we can consider what their ultimate goal might be. It seems certain that PiS will not liberalize abortion law. If the protests affect the ruling camp, a new law will likely be passed, in which cases of fatal and non-fatal fetal defects will be treated separately, as Jarosław Gowin has already proposed. Can anything else be expected? Even if the opposition wins the elections in 2023, it would need a three-fifths majority to overcome Andrzej Duda's veto. Moreover, the Constitutional Tribunal, taken over by PiS, will still exist.”
-- SAWCZUK ON THE WEAKNESSES OF A POTENTIAL REFERENDUM: “At this point, perhaps the only solution would be the idea of a referendum on future abortion law, which has appeared in public debate in recent days. However, such an idea has certain weaknesses. First of all, it is quite problematic to vote on whether women should have rights. Even if a satisfactory referendum question could be formulated and a referendum were to take place, the authorities might ignore its outcome; if citizens voted for the liberalization of the abortion law, PiS would certainly not pass such a solution in parliament.”
-- PROTESTS CAN CONTRIBUTE TO THE IMPRESSION THAT PIS IS LOSING CONTROL OF THE SITUATION - SAWCZUK'S CONCLUSION IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “The stance of the Church and the fundamentalist right certainly encourages the thought that the religious worldview is increasingly less organizing people's experiences; the place of the imagined religious community is being replaced by naked force. However, it can be assumed that if the current protests have a negative impact on PiS's rule, it will be to a significant extent as a result of the growing impression that the ruling camp is not in control of the situation – it provokes serious problems, rather than providing security. The fundamental question is always the same: will anyone be able to benefit from this?”
https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2020/10/25/sawczuk-w-poniedzialek-megafon-dla-kobiet/
-- THE CHURCH HAS LONG BECOME A PLACE OF POLITICAL RALLIES - GALOPUJĄCY MAJOR: “It is also worth repeating that this gesture, as radical as it is understandable, is not a profanation of churches. The church, even as a temple, has become a rally square of its own volition. Kaczyński on the pulpit, 'death to the enemies of the homeland' scarves at Jasna Góra, ONR banners, or finally, signatures collected after mass for legislation – all this makes it impossible to profane the temple with politics anymore. It was profaned long ago and has long been a place of political rallying.”
-- THIS IS NOT PROFANATION - MAJOR CONTINUES: “Therefore, visits to churches with banners are not only not a profanation but are an inscription into this place and its character. They help make it clear even to the faithful that we are in a political agora, that the time of playing games when the decidedly political church, pretending to be apolitical, indicates how excluded its sacred places are from politics, has ended. Well, they are not. The church is not only a source of suffering and evil but, above all, a generator of politics. So the banners are absolutely in place, even if the PiS prosecutor's office begins persecuting the protesters.”
https://galopujacymajor.wordpress.com/
-- MINIMIZE DIRECT ACTIONS - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI ADVISES HOW TO REACT TO PROTESTS IN CHURCHES: “How to react to this plan? Firstly, exercise special caution and vigilance. It is worth immediately informing the parish priest or another clergyman about any disturbing phenomena or persons. Secondly, be ready to assist priests in the reaction they deem appropriate. Thirdly, in case of the need for a more determined defense, for example, of the honor of the Most Holy Sacrament, minimize direct actions. Be decisive, but maintain full self-control. I know this is not easy. This cynical attempt to profane many churches and publicize it is based on the assumption that every situation will be presented by the media in a light unfavorable to Catholics. But there are limits that we cannot agree to cross. Much courage, wisdom, and prayer will be needed in the coming days. We also have the right to count on the police and state services not to allow acts of terror against religious people in Poland, to ensure freedom of religion.”
https://wpolityce.pl/kosciol/523542-w-najblizszych-dniach-w-kosciolach-musimy-byc-czujni
-- BGK PAID HALF A TRILLION FROM EUROPEAN FUNDS OVER A DECADE: The pandemic did not significantly affect the process of servicing payments of European funds. Over six months of the coronavirus pandemic, from mid-March to mid-September 2020, BGK disbursed as much as PLN 29 billion from European funds. That's PLN 7 billion more than in the analogous period last year – the bank reported.
https://300polityka.pl/biznes/2020/10/24/bgk-w-ciagu-dekady-wyplacil-prawie-pol-biliona-zlotych-ze-srodkow-europejskich/
-- 27 YEARS AGO, WALDEMAR PAWLAK BECAME PRIME MINISTER FOR THE SECOND TIME.
-- BIRTHDAYS: Janusz Palikot, Danuta Waniek, Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz, Dorota Drozd.
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