state of play: 10/23/2020

POLITICAL LANDSCAPE: Rokita on Protecting Life and the Capable, Twardoch on Unseen Social Change, Siedlecka on the Constitutional Court Shifting the Ball to PiS

Łukasz Mężyk

-- A CRITICAL WEEK AHEAD - SAYS MINISTER OF HEALTH, THE PRIME MINISTER ANNOUNCES COMPENSATION PROGRAM SOON, BRUDZIŃSKI ON CONSEQUENCES FOR ATTACKING POLICE, NITRAS WARNS RADICALISM IS UNHELPFUL - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/10/23/ -- BOLESŁAW PIECHA WILL BE A GUEST OF KRZYSZTOF SKÓRZYŃSKI ON SPRAWDZAM, AT 8:00 PM ON TVN24. -- THE NATURE OF CONTEMPORARY POLITICS IS EXCLUSIVELY ABOUT VIOLENT EMOTIONS, WHICH TEAMS OF POWER-GRABBING EXPERTS WORK TO INCITE - JAN ROKITA IN TEOLOGIA POLITYCZNA: "After Thursday's ruling by the Constitutional Tribunal on eugenic abortion, only the voices of ideological zealots count in the public sphere, meaning either an enthusiastic 'yes, yes, yes!' or the worn-out 'hell for women'. And these will, of course, determine the stance of two opposing segments of public opinion. Any complaint about this state of affairs would be nothing more than a manifestation of naive foolishness. Such is the nature of contemporary politics, where only violent emotions hold weight and power, and which teams of power-grabbing experts work to incite. And if someone doesn't like it, they don't have to participate in this theatre." -- NONE OF THIS RELIEVES THE PRUDENT LEGISLATOR OF THE DUTY TO REFLECT ON HOW TO TRANSLATE THE RULING INTO LAW - JAN ROKITA CONTINUES: "All of this is true. However, this truth in no way relieves the legislator of the duty of prudent reflection on how Thursday's ruling should be translated into law. The fact that the previously radically formulated eugenic abortion provision will lose its force due to the ruling is one thing. And that the grounds for abortion should be legally reshaped in accordance with this decision is, of course, a second thing." -- JAN ROKITA WITH A CITIZEN'S REQUEST FOR A NEW VERSION OF THE ABORTION COMPROMISE: "I do not hide the fact that this short text (it's hard to call it a 'column' given the gravity of the matter) has a persuasive intent. It is essentially a citizen's request to Polish lawmakers that, despite the clamor of zealots, now either ecstatic or enraged, they should try to work out a new version of the 'abortion compromise', or this time perhaps – the 'eugenic compromise', consistent with the tribunal's decision." -- ALL PEOPLE CAPABLE OF LIVING AS HUMAN BEINGS SHOULD BE PROTECTED - ROKITA CONTINUES: "The Tribunal defends the right to life, but it is not an advocate for police coercion to birth deformed organisms that are medically condemned to a swift death. That would be a complete absurdity. Incidentally, a political absurdity as well, because it is precisely these most terrifying visions of the forced birth of human monstrosities that will now (indeed, they already are) be exploited in the campaign against the tribunal's entire ruling. This new 'eugenic compromise' should radically narrow the current eugenic premise, so that it protects all people capable of living as human beings. In such extreme situations, the legislator's duty is to be completely immune to the shrieks of zealots on both sides, to seek advice from people of extensive knowledge and sensitive conscience, and finally, in due haste, to vote on a new version of the norm questioned by the Tribunal. Otherwise, there is a significant risk that the tribunal's ruling may result in more harm than good." -- WITHOUT NEW REGULATIONS, THE REAL EFFECT WILL BE A LEGAL OBLIGATION TO BRING FORTH HUMAN ORGANISMS COMPLETELY UNABLE TO LIVE - ROKITA CONTINUES: "If the so-called 'eugenic premise' loses its force, and no new legal rule is enacted in its place, the real effect will be a legal obligation to bring forth human organisms completely unable to live (e.g., with severe brain damage), and thus condemned to death immediately or shortly after birth. Let's brutally state what an audience made delicate by political correctness today strongly dislikes: the birth of human monsters. I don't know how frequent these cases are, nor to what extent nature is capable of drastic cruelty. It would never occur to me to deny that these are also human beings. But I know well that in all of human history, no madman has ever invented such a law that forbids killing a human being in absolutely all circumstances. Even modern criminal law, which is so humane, permits self-defense, states of necessity, firing in war, and in some places even the death penalty. In short: in the world we live in, for the sake of moral prudence, the state must permit killing in extreme situations, and we – adult humans (especially legislators) – must have the strength to bear moral responsibility for this fact. Also before God, if we are Christians." https://teologiapolityczna.pl/jan-rokita-wyrok-felieton-1 -- NO ONE WILL CONVINCE ANYONE, THE RESULT IS AN EVEN DEEPER DIVISION IN A SITUATION OF PROFOUND CRISIS - ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ IN ONEŁT: "The amendment of abortion regulations by Jarosław Kaczyński is the worst possible solution in Poland's current situation. It's not about the Constitutional Tribunal's decision itself, which found interrupting a pregnancy due to severe fetal damage unconstitutional – everyone has their own opinion on abortion, and no one will convince anyone of anything. It's about the consequences of the Tribunal's decision, which is, of course, an institution directly subordinate to Kaczyński. And the consequence will be an even deeper social division. And this precisely at a time of profound coronavirus crisis, when unity, solidarity, and community are needed more than ever." -- A MASS OF SIDE EFFECTS FROM THROWING THE COMPROMISE IN THE TRASH - STANKIEWICZ CONTINUES: "The authorities hope that abortion can evoke greater emotions than COVID. That they will manage to distract public attention from the coronavirus, consolidate their own ranks weakened by the war over animal protection and the coalition crisis, and solidify their alliance with the Church. Perhaps. But if the abortion compromise, which has lasted for over a quarter of a century, is disturbed, there will be a mass of side effects. A gigantic social conflict is one. Political fights over abortion on the occasion of every election are another. Even those who profess conservative values cannot be sure that the regulations tactically granted by Kaczyński will last for years. If the left and liberals ever govern (and they will), they will do everything to drastically liberalize the law, taking advantage of the fact that Kaczyński has thrown the compromise in the trash." https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/newsletter-onetu-andrzej-stankiewicz-jest-wojna-a-kaczynski-nas-podzielil/the124y -- THE TRIBUNAL HAS FULFILLED ITS IMPOSED SERVICE FUNCTION BUT HAS SIMULTANEOUSLY SHIFTED THE BALL TO PiS'S COURT - EWA SIEDLECKA IN POLITYKA: "PiS MPs and Jarosław Kaczyński, who believe they have pulled hot chestnuts out of the fire with the Tribunal's hands, do not fully realize that this ruling de facto imposes on them the obligation to pass a citizen's bill for a complete abortion ban. The ruling is based on the assertion that the fetus's right to life can only be challenged when a pregnancy threatens the mother's life. The Tribunal speaks of a 'collision of equivalent goods'. That is: life for life. But not 'life for health'. Or for suffering, as in the case of rape victims. The Tribunal has therefore fulfilled its imposed service function, but has simultaneously shifted the ball to PiS's court." https://siedlecka.blog.polityka.pl/2020/10/22/trybunal-antyaborcyjny/#more-3354 -- THE CONDITION FOR PiS'S POWER IS THE STILL-DIVIDED OPPOSITION - ERNEST SKALSKI IN GW: "The possibility of losing power might prompt some people in power to think about compromise, as long as they have something to yield from, hoping for a soft landing - Spain after Franco, Poland after the 1989 elections. But Kaczyński, Ziobro, Kamiński have no such prospect. They are going all out. Dealing with judges, with Giertych and co., taking over banks and the press, now abortion, and this is certainly not the end. Those who order, execute, and praise this are burning bridges behind them, consolidating their camp. Whether PiS retains power depends on how successful they are, how much they scare their doves. They can, after all, announce elections at a time convenient for them. The condition is a still-divided opposition. Plan B, in case of defeat, is to maintain a cohesive camp in opposition, as in the years 2007-2015. And to feed on the situation they created, which their successors will take over and on which they should falter." https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,26426360,kaczynski-idzie-na-ostro-i-pali-za-soba-mosty.html -- SUFFERING OF WOMEN FROM WORKING-CLASS BACKGROUNDS, NO LIFE WILL BE SAVED BY THIS RULING, MANY WILL BE DESTROYED - SZCZEPAN TWARDOCH ON FB: "The rulers, as usual strong against the weak and weak against the strong, are causing terrible suffering to the weakest, women from working-class backgrounds, for whom traveling for an procedure to the Czech Republic or Germany is not as easily accessible as it is for women from the middle class. Women from working-class backgrounds will either suffer torment by carrying non-viable fetuses for nine months, or they will go into debt to travel for an procedure. No life will be saved by this ruling. Many lives will be destroyed." -- BY VIOLATING THE CONSERVATIVE COMPROMISE, THEY ARE DECLARING WAR, WHICH THEY CANNOT WIN IN THE LONG RUN - TWARDOCH CONTINUES: "By violating this flawed, extremely conservative compromise by European standards, the rulers are declaring war, which in the long run – and not even counted in decades, but in years – they cannot win. They will not win this war because the scale of the black protests has shown, and opinion polls show, that support for such changes in Polish society is negligible, because Polish society is rapidly laicizing (not to post-SB anti-clericalism in the style of 'Nie', but to something much more dangerous for the Church, to indifference), and finally, because demographic trends and PESEL numbers are relentless." -- ON THE RUINS OF PiS, A TERRIBLE PARTY OF ZIOBRO AND KONFEDERACJA AND THE CIVILIZED CHADEJCJA OF MORAWIECKI WITH THE RIGHT WING OF THE CORPSE THAT IS TODAY'S PO - TWARDOCH CONTINUES: "Many scenarios can unfold; today it seems to me that PiS will not last until the elections, and if it does, it will lose power and likely fall apart. On its ruins, some terrible right-wing party will emerge with Ziobro and Konfederacja, and a 'civilized' Christian democracy with Morawiecki and the right wing of the corpse that is today's PO. Poland will, of course, not automatically become a liberal-left champion; any thinking person has probably already noticed that history has no telos and is by no means heading towards its end and fulfillment in the form of democratic-liberal democracy, as many believed in the nineties. It will likely remain in some new version of a conservative-liberal-social compromise, in a form too weak to be called order, but it will undoubtedly not be the Catholic-conservative utopia from the wet dreams of Bosak and Godek. Social change has already occurred; to not see it is as much blindness and foolishness as to believe that the demo-liberal 'order' from before 2015 can return." https://www.facebook.com/1282370816/posts/10219822413292415?sfns=mo -- IS IT NOT TIME FOR COOPERATION AND FOCUSING ALL ATTENTION ON FIGHTING THE PANDEMIC - BOGUSŁAW CHRABOTA IN RZ: "From Catholic circles, I should be hearing loud and resounding applause, but somehow there isn't much. Could it be that Catholics understand that something is wrong here? Many of us fear the consequences of breaking the compromise, because regardless of declared faith in God and attitude towards abortion, we all live in the same secular state and within the same borders. Moreover, at a very specific time, being massacred by a deadly virus that poses a real threat to the national and state substance. Is this really the best moment to provoke a monstrous ideological confrontation? Is it not time for cooperation, for concentrating all attention on fighting the pandemic, rather than on street protests by opponents of the Tribunal's decision?" -- CONFRONTATIONAL SENTIMENTS WILL INTENSIFY, DEEPER DIVIDE TRENCHES - HEAD OF RZ CONTINUES: "Furthermore, there is the credibility of the Constitutional Court, considered by its opponents to be solely an illegal outpost of the ruling party. It is impossible to explain to these people (and not only them) that this is an independent decision of independent judges. This ruling will be attributed to President Kaczyński's party, which, while governing today, has – and it is difficult to disagree with this – much more important tasks. What will be the consequences of the ruling? Confrontational sentiments will intensify. It will not help mobilize society to fight the pandemic, it will dig even deeper trenches of division, and will make us quarrel even more. In the short term, Morawiecki's calls for national solidarity will sound like a voice crying in the wilderness. In the long term, the ruling may trigger a pendulum effect. A step to the right will cause two steps to the left. Or a full turn. But not without political sacrifices. This is what the consequences of overturning the compromise might look like." https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/201029731-Boguslaw-Chrabota-Zly-czas-na-wojne-o-aborcje.html -- THE RULING WILL HAVE ITS POLITICAL CONSEQUENCES, AFTER SPAIN AND IRELAND, POLAND WILL BE NEXT - KAJA PUTO IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: "Spain managed to break free from the clutches of Catholic claims to universalism, Ireland managed to break free. Poland will be next. Thus, war. The Constitutional Tribunal has issued a ruling that is opposed by over 80% of Polish society. This, as well as the pandemic circumstances and the fact that this ruling occurred 27 years after the adoption of the Family Planning Act, suggests that it is a ruling that is political in every respect. Therefore, it will have political consequences." -- THE MOST IMPORTANT THING IS THAT THE ABORTION COMPROMISE HAS BEEN BROKEN AND EVEN CONSERVATIVES IN PLATFORMA WILL FIND IT DIFFICULT TO RETURN TO IT - PUTO CONTINUES: "But the most important thing is that the TK ruling has put an end to the rotten 'abortion compromise', which political forces from the center to the right (i.e., the majority in Polish conditions) clung to like a life raft. This compromise has been broken, so even conservatives in Platforma – whose voters are decidedly more progressive on this issue – will find it difficult to return to it. This is a step towards introducing the law that applies in the entire civilized world, namely abortion on demand. Which perhaps not 80% desire, but – according to the previously cited Kantar poll – an equally significant 69%. 69%, who may not yet need to open prosecco from Biedronka, but can certainly put it in the cupboard to age. We can be sure – and especially 'certain' – that we will live to see times when the Church will not have influence on our lives against our will." -- IN THE LONG RUN, THIS WILL NOT PAY OFF FOR PiS, BECAUSE VOTERS DON'T LIKE IT WHEN ELITES WASTE TIME ON DIGRESSIONS IN TRULY DIFFICULT TIMES; MANY GOVERNMENTS HAVE ALREADY FAILED ON THIS: "The Catholic Church, along with its role in shaping politics, will gain even more enemies – those who until now have had a neutral or ambivalent attitude towards it. Scandals in the functioning of the Church will have an increasingly less local ('that priest was bad, but the next one will be okay') and increasingly political ('this institution is bad') dimension in social perception. It will probably not pay off for PiS in the long run either, because voters do not like it when elites waste time on digressions in a moment that is truly difficult for many. Many governments in the Third Polish Republic have already failed on this." https://krytykapolityczna.pl/felietony/kaja-puto/tk-wyrok-kompromis-aborcyjny-kaja-puto/ -- THE JUDGES SHOWED GREAT COURAGE, POLAND IS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF HISTORY - JACEK KARNOWSKI: "The judges of the TK deserve words of recognition. In the current civilizational conditions in Poland and Europe, they have shown great courage and strong consciences. They have sent a signal to the world that there are places where the civilization of death has not yet triumphed. Nothing good ever comes from abortion. Never. It is a solution that always catches up with its perpetrators. The victims pay the highest price, but the perpetrators do not escape unscathed. It happens that later they spend their whole lives fleeing the consequences, from memory. We can see this at many demonstrations; those faces say it all. However, let us remember: life must be defended in all spheres, daily and persistently, sparing no means. We must educate, persuade, and support people in need. Without this, the Tribunal's decision will only be a temporary protection for the unborn. The civilization of life will not survive on the constitution alone. Poland is today on the right side of history, even if it is decades ahead of the rest of Europe, and perhaps more." https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/523227-to-werdykt-o-znaczeniu-historycznym-szacunek-dla-sedziow -- PiS IS FIGHTING DISCRIMINATION, BUT ONLY WHEN IT CONCERNS FETUSES - EMILIA KACZMAREK in KULTURA LIBERALNA: "Law and Justice fights discrimination, but only when it concerns fetuses. We could see how much they care about the real needs of people with disabilities and their guardians, for example, during their protest two years ago. For the Constitutional Tribunal, respect for human dignity means that women can be forced to give birth to a child that will result in death. Does dignity have nothing to do with the right to be free from torture?" https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2020/10/22/kaczmarek-trybunal-konstytucyjny-zakaz-aborcji/ -- MICHAŁ KOLANKO ON THE POSSIBILITY OF SPREADING THE PiS CONGRESS OVER SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO THE PANDEMIC: "This is important as the PiS leader is expected to deliver several important messages to the party (and beyond) during the congress. There is also talk in the club about the possibility of spreading out the voting during the congress and the event itself over several days. Final decisions have not yet been made, and postponing the congress to a completely different date is also being considered. After the government reconstruction, PiS planned to present its program priorities for the coming months and years, but the most important topic has become the second wave of coronavirus and the fight against it. This is now the main element and theme of the government's and Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki's communication. The Prime Minister has also increasingly mentioned in recent days that the fight against coronavirus is a long-term issue. And what's more, further waves – third and fourth – of infections may appear." https://www.rp.pl/Polityka/200909836-Koronawirus-moze-zablokowac-partyjne-przegrupowania.html -- SYSTEMIC HOUSEHOLD DEBT RELIEF CAN BE IMAGINED - RAFAŁ WOŚ IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: "This does not mean that systemic household debt relief cannot be imagined. Indeed, it can. And it probably even should. Especially in the context of the current crisis. One of the best new publications on this topic is the book 'Should we abolish household debt?' by economist Johnny Montgomerie from King's College London. Following the path she presents, such a modern 'debt haircut' (a historical term reminiscent of the ancient reforms of Solon) is necessary for several reasons." -- WE HAVE PRECEDENTS FOR BAILING OUT BANKS, SO WHY NOT PEOPLE? - WOŚ CONTINUES: "We do have precedents. And not just the (already mentioned) episodes of debt forgiveness in ancient history, but the recent forgiveness of the financial sector's debts after the 2008 crisis. Why not allow the same for households? Will there be political forces that will resort to such solutions in the coming years? I hope so. Although there's no point in fooling ourselves that they will be welcomed with open arms. If they appear, we will hear many accusations against them, compared to which today's 'populism' scare tactic is a trifle. The ruling classes always have the most to lose from debt relief. This has not changed since Solon." https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/dlugi-trzeba-darowac-165361 -- 15 YEARS AGO, in the second round of presidential elections, Lech Kaczyński defeated Donald Tusk, receiving 54.04% of the votes. -- 6 YEARS AGO, three people died in a gas explosion in an apartment building in Katowice – journalists Dariusz Kmiecik and Brygida Frosztęga-Kmiecik, and their 2-year-old son; 5 others were injured. -- 24 YEARS AGO, the 2nd term Sejm of the Republic of Poland discontinued proceedings concerning the constitutional and criminal accountability of individuals associated with the introduction and implementation of martial law. -- BIRTHDAYS: Joanna Staręga-Piasek, Jerzy Kozdroń, Magdalena Jethon, Marcin Meller, Mikołaj Dowgielewicz.

Łukasz Mężyk