state of play: 09/28/2020

STATE OF PLAY: Ziobro Had to Accept Morawiecki on Stage, Skalski: A Coalition Whose Members Fear Each Other More Than the Opposition, Pełczyńska: Polska 2050 Has Become "You" With Poles

Łukasz Mężyk

-- DWORCZYK ON THE NEW GOVERNMENT MID-WEEK, KOSINIAK ON A MEETING OF ALL GROUPS, SOBOLEWSKI ON PIS LEADERSHIP BEING ELECTED NOT AT A CONGRESS AS THE MEDIA WRITES - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/09/28/ -- HOW MUCH WILL AND STRENGTH IS LEFT TO TRANSFORM THE III RP INTO THE IV RP - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “Today, there are two fundamental questions: what exactly has been written down as the tasks for the new phase of action, which Prime Minister Morawiecki mentioned. What will be the priorities – apart from the obvious fight against coronavirus and its consequences. How much will and strength is left in the camp governing Poland today to transform the Third Republic into the Fourth Republic. Even in the areas of judiciary, media, education, culture.” -- SOMETHING VERY BAD HAPPENED, THAT THE DISCUSSION WAS MOVED TO THE PAGES OF THE III RP MEDIA - KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: “In recent weeks, something very bad has happened – the discussion has been moved, including through leaks and various insertions, to the pages of the Third Republic's media. This is something that will leave a lasting mark, which may already prevent a conversation about media market deconcentration. Fortunately, certain boundaries, beyond which people no longer shake hands, have not been crossed. And the planned entry of President Jarosław Kaczyński into the government gives a chance to curb the rampant ambitions and emotions. Therefore, some additional paragraph should be attached to the coalition agreement, it can be an oral one, which establishes clear rules for mutual relations, blocks various 'hussars' from actions undermining mutual trust, unnecessary strong words, and curbs the use of hostile media against each other. Such a gentleman's agreement, which was in effect before 2015 and later, and which was destroyed somewhere along the way.” -- WITHOUT RECOGNIZING KACZYŃSKI'S UNDISPUTED LEADERSHIP, EVERYONE WILL BE LIKE BLIND KITTENS - KARNOWSKI'S CONCLUSION: “If not from the heart, then at least from the conviction that a new right-wing movement will not be around for long, that this is a once-in-a-generation opportunity, that there is no other majority in parliament, that without recognizing Jarosław Kaczyński's undisputed leadership, everyone will be like blind kittens.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/519320-konieczny-jest-jeszcze-jeden-dodatkowy-punkt-tej-umowy -- LEFT-LIBERAL GOVERNMENTS CAN ONLY GOVERN BASED ON PR, THE ART OF OBSCURING REALITY, THE RIGHT-WING IS NOT SO LUCKY - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “The most important sentence was spoken by Jarosław Kaczyński, declaring that the United Right will continue to work towards 'strengthening the community and improving the fate of citizens.' This is the crucial matter. If this government does not change reality in the next three years, if it deals with itself, it will not be able to dream of another term in 2023. Left-liberal governments can only govern based on PR, on the art of obscuring reality; right-wing governments are not so lucky.” -- RIGHT-WING VOTERS DID NOT TAKE THE DISPUTE COMPLETELY SERIOUSLY - KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: “It is interesting that although the crisis of recent days had a high temperature and significant media echo, the right-wing voters generally did not take it completely seriously. They probably rightly concluded that the fall of this government immediately after a series of successful elections would be such an absurdity that it was not worth considering. From a historical perspective, this was a wise diagnosis.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/519326-przed-polska-potezne-wyzwania-sklocony-rzad-nie-ma-szans -- ZIOBRO DID NOT MANAGE TO STRENGTHEN HIMSELF, BUT HE WEAKENED HIS RIVALS - TOMASZ SAWCZUK IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “It is probably safe to assume that Ziobro did not strengthen his position, but managed to weaken his rivals. Firstly, Kaczyński naturally emerges from the conflict as the strongest player, but this is not surprising, as he is objectively the strongest. However, Ziobro undermined Kaczyński's position, who did not expel the coalition partners from the government but had to yield. Secondly, Ziobro brought about a significant change in the government's structure, which clearly weakens both Morawiecki and Kaczyński.” -- THE SOURCES OF PROBLEMS STILL EXIST, A BAND-AID HAS BEEN APPLIED - SAWCZUK CONTINUES: “However, it seems that the sources of the problems that led to the crisis in the United Right still exist. When Solidarna Polska again incites a culture war or beats the nationalist drum – who will say that this is inconsistent with the values of the United Right? We may therefore soon observe the testing of boundaries anew. A band-aid has been applied where it hurts, but can the wound truly heal?” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2020/09/28/sawczuk-ziobro-kaczynski-rekonstrukcja/ -- ZIOBRO HAD TO ACCEPT MORAWIECKI ON STAGE - AGATON KOZIŃSKI IN WP: “The prime minister's invitation to the stage clearly confirmed one thing: Kaczyński is the undisputed winner of the latest clash. It is known that Ziobro perceives Morawiecki as his main rival. Therefore, since he had to now accept the fact that the prime minister is joining the – seemingly – iron triangle of coalition partners, it means that Zbigniew Ziobro had to yield. He emerges from this power struggle victorious. Kaczyński sends a clear signal: if Solidarna Polska wants to continue to function within the coalition, it must accept an important position in Morawiecki's camp. This is the only scenario that is possible today.” -- TO WHAT EXTENT DID ZIOBRO SIGN SINCERELY? - KOZIŃSKI CONTINUES: “Ziobro took note of this when signing the coalition agreement. Now the key question is: how seriously does he take this document? Did he sign it sincerely, or did he cross his fingers behind his back (which, when making a promise, signifies perjury)?” -- PIS HAS A CHANCE IF THE CONFLICT IS SERIOUSLY RESOLVED - KOZIŃSKI'S CONCLUSION: “None of this can be achieved if personal disputes become paramount within the government. Such as those we observed in recent weeks. If PiS ended them on Saturday by signing the agreement, it has a chance for further victories (although there are no guarantees). If this agreement is merely a temporary ceasefire, a short-lived armistice, then it is worth starting to consider who on the opposition side is best suited to be prime minister.” https://www.wp.pl/?s=https://opinie.wp.pl/kozinski-umowa-na-trzy-lata-czy-chwilowy-rozejm-pytanie-na-wage-wygranej-w-wyborach-w-2023-r-6558192367319936a&src01=f1e45&c=336 -- GOVERNMENT WITHOUT EMILEWICZ - IWONA SZPALA IN GW: “In Morawiecki's new cabinet, there is no place for Jadwiga Emilewicz. – There were rumors that Morawiecki would give her something in the Ministry of Finance, but this did not materialize – we hear from a United Right politician.” -- CZARNEK TO MEN? - SZPALA CONTINUES: “On the occasion of the government reconstruction, the name of MP Przemysław Czarnek is mentioned for the second time. When Kaczyński threatened to break the coalition, Czarnek was on the list of potential successors to Zbigniew Ziobro. Now he is reportedly very interested in the Ministry of Science and Education.” -- SOLIDARNA POLSKA HAS RETURNED POSTS OF DEPUTY MINISTERS THAT WERE NEVER FILLED - SZPALA CONTINUES: “Ziobro's people are safe because PiS did not fulfill the previous coalition agreement and blocked the appointment of two deputy ministers from Solidarna Polska. – That's about keeping promises… – a politician from Ziobro's camp is indignant. And he says: – We are returning these never-filled positions in accordance with the latest agreements. This omission is crucial for Zbigniew Ziobro's closest associates. Deputy ministers: Sebastian Kaleta (justice), Jacek Ozdoba (climate), and Janusz Kowalski (state assets) can rest assured about their positions.” -- ZIOBRO WILL LOSE HIS FORMER SOVEREIGNTY - SZPALA CONTINUES: “In PiS, they claim that this is only part of the truth, because Zbigniew Ziobro, who ruled the Ministry of Justice undisputed, will lose his former sovereignty with Kaczyński's entry. The policy he pursues 'will become more disciplined.'” -- SOLIDARNA POLSKA DID NOT ACHIEVE EVERYTHING - SZPALA CONTINUES: “And the fact that Solidarna Polska did not achieve everything Ziobro planned is evidenced by PiS's commitments regarding lists for the 2023 elections. Solidarna Polska wanted guarantees for smaller coalition partners to run. Such guarantees existed in the previous coalition agreement. Kaczyński set new conditions – PiS will offer places, but only to current MPs of both groups.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,26344599,rekonstrukcja-rzadu-co-wiemy-o-tajnej-umowie-koalicyjnej.html -- PIONTKOWSKI MAY REMAIN IN MEN - GRZEGORZ OSIECKI AND TOMASZ ŻÓŁCIAK IN DGP: “There are still two question marks regarding ministers from PiS's portfolio. Since the end of last week, it has been heard that Przemysław Czarnek would head the new Ministry of Education and Science. Although our interlocutors do not rule out that Dariusz Piontkowski, the current head of MEN, would remain in that position.” https://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/polityka/artykuly/7833353,rzad-rekomendacje-nazwiska-umowa-koalicyjna-rekonstrukcja.html -- IF DURING THE NEXT VOTES THE COALITION PARTNERS DIVIDE AGAIN, THE RISK OF COLLAPSE WILL SHARPLY INCREASE - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “Has this crisis in the United Right been averted for the long term? Since its leaders were unable to tell the public what they had agreed upon, one can assume that they have not fully. We will find out if this is a stable arrangement only when this coalition votes together on specific laws. And this will become clear in the coming weeks. If, after today's PiS theater, its coalition partners divide again on the 'Five for Animals' or other projects, it means that Jarosław Kaczyński's authority is weakening, and the risk of this group's collapse is sharply increasing.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,26341698,teatr-na-nowogrodzkiej-umowa-koalicyjna-konfliktu-nie-zakonczy.html -- THE AGREEMENT WILL TEMPORARILY CONTAIN THE CRISIS AND THE COALITION WILL REMAIN FRACTURED, WHOSE MEMBERS FEAR EACH OTHER AND ARE A GREATER THREAT TO EACH OTHER THAN THE OPPOSITION - ERNEST SKALSKI IN GW: “Such a chance lies in a united approach to the inconsistent camp of power. It temporarily contains the current crisis and will remain a fractured coalition, whose members fear each other. They are a greater threat to each other than the opposition, which cannot afford to be total if it intends to be effective. The opposition's vote for 'Kaczyński's Five' showed that it is possible to engage in internal power plays without losing one's integrity. And the opposition should now state why it wants to gain power.” -- THE PROCESS OF FACTUAL DEIDEOLOGIZATION, THE DECLINING STAGE, WHICH HOWEVER MAY LAST A LONG TIME - SKALSKI CONTINUES: “Such an inevitable process of deideologization occurs in regimes that start with the idea of revolutionary change. Ideological tension begins to bore and amuse, and lofty slogans become the recitation of formulas. This was the case during Sanacja after Piłsudski's death and in the PRL after 1956. From this, it is clear that even if this is a declining stage, the decline can sometimes last a long time. The transition from the rule of ideas to the business of ruling means that a sooner or later inevitable regime change does not have to be violent and destructive. It allows for an ending with some agreement of the parties. It leaves a sense of dissatisfaction, but any other version is worse. However, this is yet to come.” -- THIS WILL NO LONGER BE ZEUS THE THUNDERER - SKALSKI CONTINUES: “The current turmoil will not take power away from Kaczyński, but it will change his perception, though perhaps not immediately and not for everyone. He will no longer be Zeus the Thunderer, who from his Olympus on Nowogrodzka Street decides everything, because he knows everything and can do everything, and everything happens according to his scenario, in which even the opposition plays the role assigned by him. Now, like everyone in politics, he has to strategize, change his mind, bargain, break agreements, and make compromises. Some of his followers may feel disappointed. Some may wonder if it is worth settling down with him for a long time. These may not be mass changes, but in our elections, so few people organize the lives of so many.” -- LET THE OPPOSITION SHOW THAT IT IS DOING SOMETHING, NOT JUST PREPARING TO WORK - SKALSKI CONTINUES: “Setting goals is difficult within one party, and even more so in a coalition that is forming – hopefully! Let the Civic Platform, for now, without having ready-made projects, propose obvious topics: state reform, climate policy, healthcare and education, the pension system, Poland in Europe and in the world. And let it propose the establishment of joint working groups for the opposition. If a discussion begins, it will be visible that something is being done, not just prepared and prepared for work. Will its activists let history wait while they settle their party interests?” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,26344234,szansa-dla-opozycji-wladza-klajstruje-rozlazacy-sie-alians.html -- KACZYŃSKI WILL HAVE TO SIGN DECISIONS WITH HIS OWN PEN - BOGUSŁAW CHRABOTA IN RP: “Entering the government, however, requires courage. It means taking personal responsibility for one's decisions, also in a legal sense. From now on, as has happened in his political career, he will have to sign decisions with his own signature. This is now responsibility not only before God and history, but also institutional – before the court. When signing, he will have to think twice.” -- DREAMS OF A QUICK ELECTORAL CRITERION SHOULD BE PUT ASIDE, TIME TO ROLL UP YOUR SLEEVES - CHRABOTA'S CALL TO THE OPPOSITION: “We still know little about all these matters. Negotiations are not closed, the coalition agreement is phantom, as it is not public. But one thing is certain today. We face a longer, likely three-year period of United Right rule. Dreams of a quick electoral criterion should be put on the shelf. The opposition finally knows what awaits us and what challenges lie before it. So ladies and gentlemen, it's time to roll up your sleeves and get to work.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/309279932-Boguslaw-Chrabota-Odpowiedzialnosc-Kaczynskiego.html -- POLSKA 2050 IS A POLITICAL INNOVATION - KATARZYNA PEŁCZYŃSKA-NAŁĘCZ IN A TEXT FOR OKO.PRESS: “Initial reactions to Polska 2050 were at least cautious. Just another leader-centric movement that will flash and fade like many similar ones: Ruch Palikota, Kukiz’15, Nowoczesna Petru, or Wiosna Biedronia. When it turned out after the presidential elections that the leader's name was not in the movement's name, and moreover, the movement continues, occupying third place in polls, comments took a different turn. Speculations arose that it would be some more or less successful copy of Civic Platform. Describing the world using what is known is natural. Such an approach, although common, has one significant drawback – it does not allow us to see what cannot be described with known categories. Meanwhile, Polska 2050 is neither another leader-centric party nor a new version of PO. It is a political innovation.” -- POLSKA 2050 IS THE FIRST FORMATION THAT, IN ITS PRACTICE, HAS BECOME "YOU" WITH POLES - PEŁCZYŃSKA-NAŁĘCZ CONTINUES IN OKO.PRESS: “New politics also means a new ideological formation. Polska 2050 offers more than a set of programmatic postulates. It is a defined ethos of dealing with public affairs, as well as the relationship between politicians and citizens. Key here is, on the one hand, the emphasis on professionalism and knowledge, and on the other, the appreciation of grassroots citizen agency, social sensitivity, and a partnership dialogue. This ethos is, moreover, reflected in the organizational structure described above, as well as in the internal relations within the movement. Polska 2050 is the first political formation that, in its practice, has become "you" with people. Symptomatic is Hołownia's election poster, on which, uniquely in the campaign, there was no candidate's name, but simply 'Szymon has my vote.' Therefore, what binds the movement together goes beyond a regular program. One can say that this is its socio-political DNA.” -- A STRONG STATE, BUT NOT THROUGH FORCE - PEŁCZYŃSKA-NAŁĘCZ CONTINUES: “A democratic, cohesive, and green Poland can only be built within a strong state. However, it is not about a state strong through force, but through clear rules, transparent finances, good law, and professional administration. A state that is efficient and respects the money and work of taxpayers: entrepreneurs and employees.” -- ORGANIZING POLITICS DIFFERENTLY THAN IT HAS BEEN DONE SO FAR - PEŁCZYŃSKA-NAŁĘCZ: “Certainly, however, this is not an idea for more of the same. It is an attempt to organize politics differently than it has been done in Poland so far. So that citizens and rulers can together face the problems of today's world. Problems so different from those we knew before, that they simply cannot be solved with old methods.” https://oko.press/polska-2050-nie-jest-partia-wodzowska-ani-nowa-wersja-po-jest-innowacja-polityczna-debata-oko-press/ -- THE CIVIC COALITION, UNFORTUNATELY, IS STILL BEFORE DEVELOPING A PROGRAM - MAREK BOROWSKI IN A CONVERSATION WITH AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK IN OKO.PRESS: “Secondly, you talk about your own agenda. I can speak for the Civic Coalition. Unfortunately, KO is still before developing a long-term program on key issues. I'm not talking about some additional money for someone, although such things must also be included somewhere. I'm talking about the climate, mining, healthcare, education programs. What should science look like in our country? The civil service? The prosecutor's office? In each of these areas, certain assumptions should be developed about what Poland should look like if the opposition wins. But such projects also need to be agreed upon and discussed with other partners of the democratic opposition.” https://oko.press/marek-borowski-kompromitacja-tego-ukladu-rzadzacego-jest-wielka/ -- WHEN THEY LEAVE BEHIND DESTROYED COUNTRIES, THE TIME OF RATIONAL LIBERALS WILL COME AGAIN - WITOLD GADOMSKI IN GW: “As the wave of irrationality grows, liberalism, which preaches boring, rational truths, is in retreat. But the wave that carries left-wing and right-wing populists today, various Ziembas, Sanderuses, anti-vaxxers, conspiracy theorists – will eventually recede, leaving behind destroyed countries. And then, as at the turn of the 1980s and 1990s, the time of rational liberals will come.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,26342112,wladza-promuje-wiare-w-cuda.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Grzegorz Bierecki, Maciej Nowicki, Robert Maciaszek.

Łukasz Mężyk