state of play: 09/26/2020
STATE OF PLAY: Ziobro Retreated Further, Proving Unready for a Leap; PiS Leaders Believe Overly Hardline Tactics Backfire; Kaczyński Watches Both Ziobro and Morawiecki
-- THESE 3 YEARS WILL BE WELL USED FOR POLAND - JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI WITH COALITION PARTNERS, TRZASKOWSKI ON THE END OF TOTAL OPPOSITION - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/09/26/
-- KACZYŃSKI WILL FIND IT HARDER TO PRETEND TO BE THE GOOD TSAR WHOSE ORDERS ARE TWISTED BY BAD COURTIERS - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN POLSAT NEWS MAGAZINE: “Kaczyński takes direct responsibility for the government's line and effectiveness. It will be harder for him to pretend to be the good tsar whose orders are distorted or misunderstood by bad courtiers. Even in a human sense, this is an uncomfortable position for Kaczyński. He had no desire to come to the government center in Aleje Ujazdowskie every day, especially for council of ministers meetings.”
-- ZIOBRO SHOWED HE IS NOT READY FOR A FURTHER LEAP, HE RETREATED MORE THAN THE OTHER SIDE - ZAREMBA CONTINUES: “At the same time, if Ziobro himself was preparing for a further leap, if he wanted to gain points needed for future leadership competition on the right or to compete with PiS from the right, he showed that he is not ready for it. Both sides retreated, but possibly the Minister of Justice more so. Especially since he likely didn't secure a promise of a strong position on PiS lists. Such guarantees are never certain, after all. How many times has Kaczyński changed agreements with weaker environments entering into electoral alliances with him? The first time he did it was in 2001 with the so-called Alliance of the Right (Marcinkiewicz, Jurek, Ujazdowski, etc.). Ziobro may resume his skirmishes, but after Kaczyński's 'showdown,' he showed that he has weak cards or entered a war escalated since the presidential elections without a plan. In fact, both. It will be harder for him now to even convince his people to make further moves.”
-- KACZYŃSKI WILL EITHER STIFLE ZIOBRO'S INITIATIVES IN THE BUD OR YIELD TO THE TEMPTATION OF OUTBIDDING HIM - ZAREMBA CONTINUES: “How this will affect the government's line remains to be seen. It's possible that Kaczyński will stifle the ideological initiatives of the Ministry of Justice in the bud, such as the one predicting restrictions against non-governmental organizations. It's possible he will find time to fatherly advise the minister against another loud declaration related to LGBT. And it's possible he will yield to the temptation of outbidding him. Let's remember: the fundamental goals of the PiS leader and Solidarna Polska were the same – flattening the court structure linked with a purge and 'ordering' the media market. These are revolutionary undertakings for which Kaczyński still has a real majority. This will result in further skirmishes with the European Union (and perhaps even the USA) and make it harder for Morawiecki to play the role of a technocrat solely interested in an efficient state. There are not many new ideas for this greater efficiency, by the way. Although if Kaczyński's presence in the government increases the cohesion of this team, something may emerge.”
-- PERHAPS DUDA IS ENTERING THE RACE FOR THE MAIN PLACE AFTER KACZYŃSKI - ZAREMBA'S FURTHER CONSIDERATIONS: “It is also possible that Andrzej Duda is thus entering the race for the main place on the right after Kaczyński's departure, that after his presidency he wants to be its leader. He may find this realistic, especially if he forces amendments in the Senate and makes the 'animal law' more digestible for the right wing. If Prime Minister Morawiecki and Joachim Brudziński dream of leadership, it's possible they have learned about another rival. Of course, Duda will not agree on this matter with Ziobro either. But at the moment, Kaczyński and Morawiecki likely seem more threatening to the president.”
https://tygodnik.polsatnews.pl/news/2020-09-25/o-przegranym-kaczynskim-bardziej-przegranym-ziobrze-i-przyczajonym-dudzie/
-- PiS LEADERS BELIEVE OVERLY HARDLINE ACTIONS WILL BE COUNTERPRODUCTIVE, ACCELERATING CHANGES PERHAPS LEADING TO THE OPPOSITION'S VICTORY - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “We are currently dealing with a conflict within Zjednoczona Prawica (United Right), which of course has many dimensions, where ambitions, grudges, fears, and plans play a role. However, tactical and strategic differences, relating precisely to the challenge of stopping the LGBT offensive, also play a significant role. PiS leaders believe that overly hardline actions will prove counterproductive, accelerating changes, perhaps even leading to the opposition's victory. Furthermore, they seem to think that we are touching upon an area where political power, especially in our current context (including the European Union, the global nature of various phenomena), has quite limited possibilities for action. Politicians from Solidarna Polska, on the other hand, argue that a cultural war has already been declared on us, and therefore we cannot evade it. They also believe it can be won by mobilizing political structures.”
-- IT IS WORTH STICKING TOGETHER BECAUSE A TRUE DEFEAT MAY BE WAITING AROUND THE CORNER - JACEK KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: “All of this could lead to a situation where part of the right goes further to the right, and another part swings more towards the center. The result will be the loss of a chance for a right-wing majority, and an era of 'Christian-democratic-socialist' governments, pushing stronger worldview identities to the margins. It will be like in Germany or France, with a similar outcome. Therefore – despite all tactical differences – it is worth talking, seeking a common line, compromise, and sticking together. A better future is not necessarily waiting around the corner. A true defeat may also be waiting around the corner.”
https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/519193-agresja-skrajnej-lewicy-lgbt-nakreca-podzialy-na-prawicy
-- AN EYE ON BOTH ZIOBRO AND MORAWIECKI - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “Jarosław Kaczyński, being in the government, has his eye on both Ziobro and Morawiecki every day.”
-- KACZYŃSKI WANTS ZIOBRO NOT TO THROW A SPANNER IN MORAWIECKI'S WORKS, BUT ONCE AGAIN HE PROVED THAT WITHOUT HIM THE WHOLE GANG CANNOT FUNCTION - WIELOWIEYSKA CONTINUES: “Indeed, he wants the prime minister to have a wide scope of action, and Ziobro not to throw a spanner in his works. Nevertheless, the leader is pleased that he has once again proven that without him, this whole gang cannot function. He is indispensable, he cannot retire, because he must be on duty. And that's the point, because – as many people in Zjednoczona Prawica assure me – Kaczyński will rule for as long as he can. His remarks about a possible retirement are perceived by activists as a kind of test: who protests immediately, and who hesitates.”
-- HE DECIDED ZIOBRO WAS HUMILIATED ENOUGH - WIELOWIEYSKA CONTINUES: “But ultimately, the PiS leader decided that this was a tiring scenario, and the prolonged crisis carried certain risks. Because what if not all of Ziobro's MPs leave him and one or two votes are missing for a majority, and what about Kukiz, who is often unpredictable and will cause more trouble than Ziobro? Jarosław Kaczyński decided that Ziobro was humiliated enough – it was evident at the Minister of Justice's press conference on Monday – and for now, there will be relative peace with him, meaning he will vote as the leader wishes, without any bargaining.”
-- THE CRISIS WILL RETURN, IT'S ONLY A MATTER OF TIME - WIELOWIEYSKA'S CONCLUSION: “Perhaps for some time it will be like that. But for how long? In one thing, the supporters of various factions within Zjednoczona Prawica agree and use a similar phrasing: after Gowin's spring rebellion, and now after Ziobro's rebellion, nothing will be the same in Zjednoczona Prawica. And the crisis will return. It's only a matter of time.”
https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,26339023,jaroslawowi-kaczynskiemu-nie-chodzilo-o-norki-czy.html
-- KACZYŃSKI IN GOVERNMENT TO CONTROL ZIOBRO, WHOM MORAWIECKI COULD NOT HANDLE - PAWEŁ WROŃSKI IN GW: “Jarosław Kaczyński is entering the government as Deputy Prime Minister and will report to Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, who will soon become deputy leader of the party led by Kaczyński. The PiS leader, in turn, will join the government to control Zbigniew Ziobro, the head of Solidarna Polska, who would like to be on the PiS electoral lists in 2023 and with whom Prime Minister Morawiecki cannot cope.”
-- WROŃSKI ON ANALOGIES TO PIŁSUDSKI: “Kaczyński, by heading the state security committee, will oversee the Ministry of National Defense, the Ministry of Interior and Administration, and the Ministry of Justice. Historical analogies are emerging to Józef Piłsudski, who at crucial moments – after the May coup in 1926 and the Brest elections in 1930 – took on the duties of prime minister and also held the position of general inspector of the Armed Forces.”
-- THE SIDES GOT WHAT THEY DIDN'T WANT, THIS BEGINS THE COMPETITION - WROŃSKI'S CONCLUSION: “After several days of negotiations, the conflicting parties, it seems, got what they didn't want to take. Kaczyński entered the government, which he had resisted for years. Ziobro will be under control he didn't want, although he retained control over the prosecution, effectively run by Bogdan Święczkowski. This strange governmental structure does not end, but effectively begins the competition for the succession after President Kaczyński.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,26333811,kaczynski-jak-pilsudski-wojny-w-obozie-wladzy-to-nie-zakonczy.html
-- ZIOBRO WILL DO EVERYTHING TO ENSURE THE GOVERNMENT IS NOT SUCCESSFUL - MICHAŁ KAMIŃSKI IN CONVERSATION WITH DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA: “Ziobro knows very well that he cannot allow Zjednoczona Prawica to govern peacefully for three years, because the result will be Morawiecki's increasingly strong position, who in that time – as PiS deputy leader – will have time to build his position. Therefore, everything must be done to ensure the government is not successful. And this is Ziobro's goal, because he has great ambitions. He wants to become number one in a large political camp. And the success of the PiS government in the current arrangement negates these chances.”
-- KACZYŃSKI HAD TO REACT DECISIVELY BECAUSE ZIOBRO TOOK OVER THE MANAGEMENT OF THE AGENDA - KAMIŃSKI CONTINUES: “If Ziobro is focused on undermining this government's position even more than before, because he practically bargains on every issue and makes various declarations without agreement from his own camp, then Kaczyński had no choice but to react decisively. And not because homophobia bothers him, not because he dislikes the changes in the courts, because he does like them, but because Ziobro took over the management of the agenda.”
-- ZIOBRO HAS ALL OF JAROSŁAW'S FLAWS BUT NONE OF HIS VIRTUES - MICHAŁ KAMIŃSKI CONTINUES IN CONVERSATION WITH WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “Sudden popularity and success have changed him immensely. He considers himself anointed, destined for great tasks that he must fulfill, without regard for any moral principles or political standards. Even Kaczyński knows some limits; Ziobro recognizes none. Zbyszek's problem is that he has all of Jarosław's flaws but none of his virtues.”
-- IT IS NOT PROPER FOR ME TO SAY WHAT LECH KACZYŃSKI THOUGHT OF ZIOBRO: “As I was a close collaborator of President Kaczyński, it is not proper for me to say in detail what he thought of Ziobro. I will say cautiously: his enthusiasm waned.”
-- ZIOBRO BELIEVES DUDA GOT WHAT HE DESERVED - KAMIŃSKI CONTINUES: “Hence the mutual dislike between Ziobro and Duda. He took a place that Ziobro considered reserved for himself; he was supposed to be the camp's candidate for president, and he considers Duda a weakling who got lucky by chance into what he, Ziobro, simply deserved.”
-- ZIOBRO IS CUTTING PiS OFF FROM THE CENTER - KAMIŃSKI: “Kaczyński approached the matter pragmatically. However, today Ziobro's presence in the ruling camp is causing increasing problems. The Minister of Justice is frightened by Morawiecki's actions, for example, that the entire opposition is capable of discussing problems with Belarus with the prime minister, that Morawiecki moves more effectively in Brussels than other PiS leaders. And this, in turn, enables the prime minister to engage with centrist voters. Ziobro, therefore, does everything to cut PiS, and thus Morawiecki, off from this center. He radicalizes his message, blackmailing the entire rest of the camp.”
-- HE IS CONSTANTLY PLAYING TO BLOW UP PiS - KAMIŃSKI: “Ziobro's circle led the PiS government into a trap with the IPN law, which was supposed to silence critical historians. And now Ziobro is pushing PiS into a war with the US administration, pushing a radical version of the media law. All actions ultimately count against the government, the prime minister, and the leader. This is a constant game to blow up PiS, because only then will Ziobro be able to claim leadership on the right.”
-- A DRAW WITH A NOD TO MORAWIECKI, BECAUSE THE LEADER HAS COMMITTED HIS AUTHORITY TO MORAWIECKI'S SUCCESS - KAMIŃSKI TO WIELOWIEYSKA: “A draw with a nod to Morawiecki. But a draw at a huge cost. Kaczyński's entry into the government means that the leader not only guarantees the prime minister's career but has staked his entire personal political potential and committed his authority to Morawiecki's success. For his defeat – if it happens – the leader may pay with his leadership. Furthermore, Kaczyński faces daily, hands-on control of the Ministry of Justice. This will entail many conflicts. Kaczyński's entry into the government is of great significance: the coach has entered the field and is taking personal responsibility for the game. Jarosław has taken a great risk. In historical perspective, this increases Ziobro's chances of victory.”
https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,26339026,michal-kaminski-ziobro-sie-pokajal-na-pokaz-on-z.html
-- HE IS ENTERING TO LIMIT ZIOBRO'S AUTONOMY - ADAM LESZCZYŃSKI IN OKO: “It is unknown what the committee led by Kaczyński is intended for – speculations suggest rather that the PiS leader will join the government in order to limit Zbigniew Ziobro's autonomy (possibly so that Ziobro does not have to answer to Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, with whom he reportedly does not speak).”
https://oko.press/kaczynski-superwicepremier-od-bezpieczenstwa-czyli-zla-polska-tradycja/
-- JAN ENGLERT - WHY IN OPOLE DO SPECTATORS SIT NEXT TO EACH OTHER, BUT IN THEATER EVERY OTHER CHAIR IS REQUIRED WITH MASKS - IN CONVERSATION WITH PIOTR ZAREMBA IN RZ: “I have always said that if we fully surrender to pandemic logic, we will lose. Of course, we are subsidized. But we made the decision to perform as long as there are more spectators than people on stage. I don't know why, elsewhere, in Opole or at the Marian song festival, spectators sit next to each other, without masks, while in the theater you have to sit every other chair with masks. Which still means a distance of 70 centimeters, not a meter and a half. I don't see much logic in the pandemic regime.”
-- I AM NOT INTERESTED IN THEATER THAT HITS YOU IN THE FACE WITH A DIRTY RAG - ENGLERT CONTINUES TO ZAREMBA IN RZ: “The most polite? Or perhaps closest to Iwaszkiewicz's spirit? The question is whether I am dealing with a problem or a literary work. Whether I touch upon the author's thought, or I interfere with the author. An impertinent person interferes. I am interested in theater that touches, not hits you in the face with a dirty rag. Theater that inspires thought, not offends.”
-- ENGLERT EVASIVELY ANSWERS ZAREMBA'S QUESTION ABOUT PiS'S REACTION TO GAJOS'S WORDS: “I often say that I am too arrogant to be offended. Perhaps the authorities, if they have strength and a sense of righteousness, should adopt a similar stance, especially towards people who are not politicians. I, as a rule, do not respond to attacks, including those from people in my own environment.”
https://www.rp.pl/Plus-Minus/200929676-Jan-Englert-Jestem-zbyt-zarozumialy-zeby-sie-obrazac.html
-- BIRTHDAYS: Barbara Toruńczyk, Krzysztof Michałkiewicz, SUNDAY: Marek Ast.
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